Glasgow East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2544 (6%)
Labour: 13729 (32.4%)
Lib Dem: 318 (0.7%)
SNP: 24116 (56.9%)
Green: 381 (0.9%)
UKIP: 1105 (2.6%)
Others: 224 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 10387 (24.5%)

Category: Safe SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Glasgow. Part of the Glasgow council area.

Main population centres: Glasgow.

Profile: The eastern part of the city of Glasgow. This seat contains some affluent suburban areas like Mount Vernon and Bailleston, but it is mostly made up of the post-war product of slum clearances, souless tenements and terraces thrown up in the 1950s and 1960s into which the population of Glasgow`s substandard housing were decanted. The resulting estates, lacking employment and amenties were ravaged by unemployment, hard drugs, violence and gang culture.

Politics: Like most of the Glasgow seats, this was a safe Labour seat until the 2015 SNP landslide. The 2008 by-election that followed the death of David Marshall was won by the SNP on a huge swing of 22%, but normal service was immediately resumed come the 2010 general election when Labour regained the seat with ease.

Current MP
NATALIE MCGARRY (SNP) Born Inverkeithing. Educated at Aberdeen University. Former policy advisor. First elected as MP for Glasgow East in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 1453 (5%)
Lab: 19797 (62%)
LDem: 1617 (5%)
SNP: 7957 (25%)
Oth: 1340 (4%)
MAJ: 11840 (37%)
Con: 2135 (7%)
Lab: 18775 (61%)
LDem: 3665 (12%)
SNP: 5268 (17%)
Oth: 1096 (4%)
MAJ: 13507 (44%)
Con: 1580 (7%)
Lab: 14200 (61%)
LDem: 1551 (7%)
SNP: 4361 (19%)
Oth: 1569 (7%)
MAJ: 9839 (42%)
Con: 2468 (8%)
Lab: 20925 (66%)
LDem: 1217 (4%)
SNP: 6085 (19%)
Oth: 1158 (4%)
MAJ: 14840 (47%)

2015 Candidates
ANDREW MORRISON (Conservative) Educated at St Mungos Academy and Oxford Brookes University. Chartered accountant.
MARGARET CURRAN (Labour) Born 1958. Educated at Our Lady and St Francis School and Glasgow University. Lecturer and minister in the Scottish government. Contested Glasgow East by-election 2008. MSP for Glasgow Baillieston 1999-2011. MP for Glasgow East 2010 to 2015. Shadow Scottish Secretary since 2011.
GARY MCLELLAND (Liberal Democrat)
ARTHUR MISTY THACKERAY (UKIP) Contested Glasgow East 2010.
KIM LONG (Green)
NATALIE MCGARRY (SNP) Born Inverkeithing. Educated at Aberdeen University. Policy advisor.
LIAM MCLAUGHLAN (Scottish Socialist Party (SSP))
Comments - 219 Responses on “Glasgow East”
  1. The SNP had a semi legitimate point about Ian Murray not being Corbyn’s best friend but they clearly let the mask slip during the campaign, at least at the beginning where they were criticizing Corbyn for being ‘unelectable’ and then trying to shift back to being pro Corbyn at the end.

    To soon to predict the complete collapse of the SNP as a force at least at Holyrood due to their level of support among under 35s etc with their millennial support in some areas like Edinburgh seemingly holding up far better than their support in West central Scotland although I’ve little doubt that they would lose a referendum by up to 20% in the short term as they may have bungled the 2nd referendum issue with yes/brexit voters while suffering from general malaise in gvt.


    Yes I have my doubts about Kezia Dugdale for various reasons (not necessarily the constitutional issue where she seems on the same page as Corbyn) and her staying in place only makes sense as a long game approach if Sturgeon is pushed out in the near future as I can’t necessarily see Labour doing better than a slightly improved 3rd place at the next Holyrood election.

    Amusingly she seems accused by ultra unionists and people like Ian Smart of being a closet nat on the one hand (her dating an SNP MSP has further added to suspicions) while being attacked by cybernats as being a Tory stooge on the other. The Aberdeen council coalition for example was badly handled at the time although didn’t seem to have too much impact outside the bubble.

  2. Rivers10,

    I agree with much of your analysis. I think that, in practice, Corbyn and Dugdale made a good team: the former to win over some Red Nats, the latter to keep the bulk of Labour’s support (centrist unionists) from going over to the Tories or Lib Dems.

    If they’d gone fully down the road of “We’re the unionist party for people on the left and centre” OR “We’re a socialist party that’s open-minded on the constitutional question”, then I think Labour would have faced another disastrous election. As it was, they ran very quickly and stayed still, and I think that this was a big achievement for them, that was mainly due to Corbyn’s street cred with the Scottish left and his ability to speak respectfully & persuasively to that portion of Scottish society.

  3. “they clearly let the mask slip during the campaign, at least at the beginning where they were criticizing Corbyn for being ‘unelectable’ and then trying to shift back to being pro Corbyn at the end.”

    In general, the SNP have lacked message-cohesion and consistency since Brexit. For example, they couldn’t stick to a constant narrative about why we needed a second referendum, and the SNP GE campaign vacillitated between “Triple Lock Mandate” and “Keep the Tories out of Scotland!”.

    As it was, they were seen as losing their mandate for a second referendum AND the Tories had a fantastic night.

  4. A fantastic night in Scotland alone, of course!

  5. Former MP here Natalie McGarry will stand trial accused of embezzlement.

  6. At long last.

    Her Trial has been delayed even longer than Matthew Sephton’s was.

  7. Former MP Natalie McGarry pleaded gulty to embezzlement.

  8. The most sickening six words of that report: “including money intended for a foodbank”.

    This is worse than Ian Lavery grifting from the pensions of ex-miners with lungs full of coal dust. If you’re going to steal, for goodness sake steal from someone worth stealing from.

  9. She also used £ to go on holiday to Spain.

    She looks set to be jailed:

  10. It was obvious this arsehole was guilty from day one.

  11. McGarry has been jailed for 18 months.

  12. Some really despicable people have become MPs in recent years. I’m surprised this hasn’t severely dented the SNP’s holier than thou tone.

  13. Scottish politics is currently too tribal for such an effect to happen.

  14. Quite a few SNP supporters are just as rabid, blinkered and uncompromising as the average UKIP/ BXP supporter. Hence a shed load of Tweets today stating how they feel sorry for McGarry and that, short of shooting up a school, women shouldn’t be sent to prison. There are a tremendous number of incredibly stupid people in Britain, basically.

  15. If you adjust YouGov’s recent MPR to account for past inaccuracies then the Labour Party would hold 6 of their 7 Scottish seats and gain Glasgow East.

    The present YouGov nowcast would suggest that Airdrie & Shotts, Motherwell & Wishaw and Inverclyde are also winnable for the party if their vote holds up in Scotland.

  16. Which seat would they lose?

  17. @BM11: They would lose Glasgow North East by 5% of the vote.

  18. Would be intresting to lose North East and gain east.

  19. @ bm11: Absolutely.

    Glasgow North East was Labour’s safest seat in Scotland before 2015 and it is Scotland’s poorest constituency. It voted in favour of Scottish independence by 57% of the vote, second only to Dundee West which had a 58% Yes vote.

    Glasgow East also includes areas of immense poverty such as Shettleston and Baillieston, mixed in with the suburbs of Mount Vernon and Garrowhill. It had a Yes vote of 53% and the highest Brexit vote in Glasgow (44% Leave). The more mixed demographic of Glasgow East would usually favour the SNP, although incumbent MP David Linden has a slender majority of just 75 votes.

    The adjusted YG model would suggest that Labour’s key targets in Greater Glasgow tend to have a high proportion of Roman Catholic voters.

    Highest % Catholic seats in Scotland from 2011 census:
    1. Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (43.8%)
    2. Inverclyde (37.0%)
    3. Glasgow East (33.5%)
    4. Glasgow North East (33.1%)
    5. West Dunbartonshire (33.1%)
    6. Motherwell and Wishaw (32.3%)
    7. Airdrie and Shotts (32.1%)
    8. Glasgow South West (30.2%)
    9. Rutherglen and Hamilton West (30.1%)

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