Gedling

2015 Result:
Conservative: 17321 (36.1%)
Labour: 20307 (42.3%)
Lib Dem: 1906 (4%)
Green: 1534 (3.2%)
UKIP: 6930 (14.4%)
MAJORITY: 2986 (6.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. Most of the Gedling council area.

Main population centres: Carlton, Arnold, Burton Joyce.

Profile: The city of Nottingham has administrative boundaries drawn very tightly around the centre of the city, meaning that residential areas that are essentially the outer suburbs of Nottingham end up in neighbouring authorities like Broxtowe, Rushcliffe and here in Gedling. This is a comparatively affluent and middle class residential seat, with a high proportion of owner-occupiers. As well as Arnold and Carlton, both very much part of the Nottingham conurbation, it also includes the village of Burton Joyce to the east of the city.

Politics: Gedling and its predecessor Carlton both used to be regarded as safe Conservative seats. In 1992 the Tory MP here, Andrew Mitchell, enjoyed a majority of almost 19%. It fell to Labour on a thirteen percent swing in 1997 and, unlike many other suburban seats that returned to the Conservative fold in 2010 it has remained in Labour`s hands. Andrew Mitchell himself did not seek re-election here and instead ended up as MP for the genuinely safe Tory berth of Sutton Coldfield.


Current MP
VERNON COAKER (Labour) Born 1953, Westminster. Educated at Drayton Manor Grammar School and Warwick University. Former teacher. Contested Rushcliffe 1983, Gedling 1987, 1992. First elected as MP for Gedling in 1997. Government whip 2003-2008, Minister of State at the Home Office 2008-2009, Minister of State for Schools and Learning 2009-2010. Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary 2011-2013, Shadow Defence Secretary 2013-2015. Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17962 (37%)
Lab: 19821 (41%)
LDem: 7350 (15%)
BNP: 1598 (3%)
Oth: 1459 (3%)
MAJ: 1859 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16518 (37%)
Lab: 20329 (46%)
LDem: 6070 (14%)
UKIP: 741 (2%)
Oth: 411 (1%)
MAJ: 3811 (9%)
2001
Con: 16785 (38%)
Lab: 22383 (51%)
LDem: 4648 (11%)
MAJ: 5598 (13%)
1997
Con: 20588 (39%)
Lab: 24390 (47%)
LDem: 5180 (10%)
MAJ: 3802 (7%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CAROLYN ABBOTT (Conservative) Educated at Lancaster University. Director of a family ironworking business. Contested Sheffield Heeley 2001, Barnsley East and Mexborough 2005, Chesterfield 2010, Yorkshire and Humber region 2014 European elections.
VERNON COAKER (Labour) See above.
ROBERT SWIFT (Liberal Democrat)
LEE WATERS (UKIP) Educated at Hertfordshire University.
JAMES NORRIS (Green)
Links
Comments - 89 Responses on “Gedling”
  1. There seems to have been only minimal ethnic change here since 2001.

    Which is the opposite to what had been speculated.

    And makes the differing electoral trend to Erewash surprising.

  2. this area will the notts cons worst area for lost seats in numbers
    lab +5 con -5

  3. labour need all 8 left in gedling to get a maj in notts

  4. well labour have done it maj of 1 (in seats) a lot closer then i expected

  5. Interesting to contrast the result in Nottinghamshire with the one in Derbyshire. Labour won the latter comfortably yet have only narrowly scraped through in the former. Does anyone have some local knowledge as to why that has been the case?

  6. The Tories really are doing a lot better in the midlands the I thought. Disappointing about Warwickshire though and everyone knew Derbyshire was going to be lost to Labour.

  7. Looks as if Labour didn’t do as well in the Ashfield and Beeston areas. And there are two pretty solid Tory blocs in the Rushcliffe and Newark areas and two safe Tory wards in Bassetlaw.

  8. In Warwickshire, the Tories seemed to have suffered a lot of damage in the Warwickshire North wards- that doesn’t bode well for Dan Byles’ already slim chances of holding the seat in 2015. But elsewhere in the area, they did okay and even made a couple of gains from the Lib Dems in the rural wards around Stratford.

  9. @ akmd
    labour did badly in old working class areas with a very poor turnout e.g worksop east a much reduced maj and Ashfield where the lib dems did very well plus even in mansfield where they won seats it was not by big margins .The indies in mansfield south were also helped by a lack of tory effort (this should be cons best area in mans).
    labour did do well in lower middle/better working /public sector areas such as gedling/retford/rufford/worksop norths and West Bridgford Central and South which won then the council just.

  10. This seat is obviously continuing to move towards Labour in the same way that Tamworth is moving in the opposite direction.

  11. i misread the worksop east result (lab maj got bigger not smaller) but still a low turnout

  12. Thanks for the insight, Myth11. What you say does make sense. It is surprising that the LDs held on to the majority of the seats here. I’m even more surprised that UKIP lost their single councillor and failed to gain any. I’d have thought UKIP had more potential in Nottinghamshire but maybe the indie group in Mansfield had something to do with it.

  13. Labour have all the Carlton and Arnold wards but the Conservatives easily held the two rural/mining wards of Calverton and Newstead and likewise Cotgrave as well.

    Not examined the detail yet but this continues the trend of the last decade.

  14. As to the UKIP loss in Hucknall there were somewhat special circumstances as to its gain in 2009.

    Back then the winning UKIP candidate IIRC got double the votes of the other two UKIP candidates. The popular UKIP candidate had the title Rev (the local CoE vicar perhaps?).

    This time all the UKIP candidates put on votes but were overtaken by the general Labour increase.

  15. Divisions within this constituency

    Lab 42.65%
    Con 26.86%
    UKIP 22.2%
    LD 6.42%
    Green 1.5%
    TUSC 0.27%

  16. That’s a swing of about 6% to Labour since 2010.

  17. From the old site Pete on changing patterns in Gedling:

    ” In the Tories’ Annus Horribilus of 1993 they won all three Arnold divisions comfortably and won two of the divisions in Carlton with another being won by the LDs (Labour a very poor third) and the last very narrowly Labour. The only division in Gedling borough won convincingly by Labour (also the only division they had won in 1989) was the mining area of Calverton, which is in Sherwood constituency. In 1997, though the Tories generally recovered somewhat compared with 1993, Labour gained bot the other Carlton seats. Arnold also swung to Labour but Calverton swung to the Tories. Labour also gained a seat in West Bridgeford on a large swing, but Cotgrave swung heavily in the opposite direction. In 2001 Labour increased their lead in their West Bridgford division and almost added another while the Conservatives gained Cotgrave. Labour also widened their lead in all the Carlton divisions and gained another Tory seat in Arnold. In 2005 Labour won 7 of 8 seats in Carlton and Arnold while the Conservatives gained Calverton. In the CC elections this June Calverton voted Tory over Labour by more than two to one, Cotgrave by more than three to one while the Tory share in West Bridgford was no better than in 1993 and in Carlton it was worse. I do realise there have been boundary changes which may mean for example that the current Calverton may be somewhat more favourable to the Tories than the pre-2005 version, but even so the core remains the same and the swing has been huge over the period and particularly so in comparison to the parts of Gedling borough which form this constituency. “

  18. And another comment from Pete on the old site which has been bourne out as prophetic:

    ” “If you are able to complete this work Pete may I suggest you send a copy of it to CCHQ to show them where their votes are now coming from. I suspect it would be a revelation to some of the people in London and possibly one they might not like”

    One would assume that some people at CCHQ are aware of this but may not fully udnerstand why they are getting these kinds of votes. As we discussed on Dudley North, the Tories will naturally benefit from Labour unpopularity but will not be able to sustain the support of such areas without providing positive reasons for people to vote for them. The reason that Labour has fallen away so badly in traditional areas like this is that the party has become associated with metropolitan middle class concerns. This situation would be compunded should Harriet Harman become leader following the party’s defeat which would just about kill off Labour support in former coalfield areas. The danger for the Tories is that they make the mistake of pursuing the same metropolitan, cosmopolitan agenda and again as Richard has pointed out elsewhere (and as I advertise here) there are now other viable alternatives. “

  19. Superb analysis by Pete there.

  20. I don’t just think that Labour’s dominance here is due entirely to parts of the cnstituency becoming poorer.

    I also think that even parts of Carlton and Arnold that remain as affluent will have higher numbers of middle class public sector workers replacing middle class private sector workers.

    Carlton/ Gedling had no tradition even as a bellweather seat, and has gone from being a seat always won by the Conservatives to one always won by Labour in the same way as Crosby/ Sefton Central and Eastwood/ East Renfrewshire.

    It is now becoming a lesser Conservative prospect than its neighbour Nottingham East was in the 1980’s. Nottingham East has gone from a marginal constituency of mixed character to one of large social deprevation (with only Mapperley retaining any element of Conservative support).

  21. “I don’t just think that Labour’s dominance here is due entirely to parts of the cnstituency becoming poorer.”

    Poorer is not the best word to use. Change is better. Both Carlton and Arnold have become much more like Nottingham city over the past 20 years – more non-white residents, more public sector workers, fewer ordinary white suburban types working in private sector jobs who form the backbone of the Tory vote. Many of these people have moved further out into Newark, Sherwood or Rushcliffe – compare how well the Tories held up there a few weeks back compared with here.

    Broxtowe and West Bridgeford have always been higher up the scale than Gedling, which is why despite those areas becoming better for Labour due to the expansion of university professionals etc, the Tories remain competitive due to a core vote of higher-end voters and these areas being too expensive to become a Nottingham spill-over as much of Gedling has become.

  22. fact about ravenshead
    one of best tory areas in gedling most of it was in newark and sherwood dc until the late 1980s .

  23. Correct me if I’m wrong – Ravenshead (along with Calverton and Newstead – which are also good for the Tories) is in Sherwood constituency.

  24. yes you are correct i should have put it on sherwood

  25. but i was talking about the district council areas

  26. Yes I understood that.

    Thanks for the note on UKIP in Notts from a few days back, by the way.

  27. its funny the cons most likely won Gedling borough and lost broxtowe borough in 2010

  28. There was a snippet of the declaration for this seat shown during Midlands Today’s regional roundup of the results across the West and East Midlands, and was incorrectly referred to by reporter Gary Hudson as being ‘Gloucester’- It was clearly this seat, given it was Vernon Coaker celebrating, after the Returning Officer had announced Andrew Mitchell’s name and figures.

  29. My 2015 forecast for Gedling

    Lab 45
    Con 30
    UKIP 11
    LD 9
    others 5

  30. I’d go with-
    Coaker (Labour)- 44%
    Conservative- 35%
    Liberal Democrat- 10%
    UKIP- 6%
    Others- 4%

  31. Is West Bridgford in Newark or Nottingham South?

    I only went there briefly recently but it DID seem a particularly affluent suburb

  32. Isn’t West Bridgford in Rushcliffe? Ken Clarke’s seat.

  33. Yes, its in Rushcliffe.

  34. It is Labour’s best bit of Rushcliffe these days, far better for them than the mining / power station area around Cotgrave.

    West Bridgford is no better than a 50/50 split between Tories and Labour now, though Ken Clarke will have enough of a personal vote to be slightly ahead there. When he retires it will establish a more robust Labour lead, as we have seen in Gedling and parts of Broxtowe, though the rest of Rushcliffe continues to trend to the Tories.

  35. I think you might overstate it a bit HH. The Tories were still ahead in West Bridgford this May – not by a huge amount but still clearly so. It is certainly trending that way, but its a long way off voting like Carlton or Beeston

  36. ‘It is Labour’s best bit of Rushcliffe these days, far better for them than the mining / power station area around Cotgrave.’

    Would that be the power station near the East Midlands airport – just past Loughborough

    I remember spottimng a fair few cooling towers

  37. That one is probably Ratcliffe-on-Soar, there are three or four power stations within a few miles of each other on the Trent, not sure which are still open.

  38. By-election at Gedling (the village) yesterday – ex-Lib seat won by Labour as you’d expect but the Libs kept the swing down to under one per cent with UKIP at their usual 20% ( actual 22%). Libs as ever doing much better in a target seat than the national polls.

  39. Is this a target seat for the LDs?

  40. I can’t believe the Lib Dems would be targetting this seat. If the ward in question was elsewhere (Chesterfield or Ashfield {is that the seat they came close to in 2010?}) then maybe but there is zero chance of them winning this in the foreseeable future.

  41. Antiochian, Wolf doesn’t mean target seat as in the Gedling constituency is a target seat. He simply means that where the Lib Dems concentrate their firepower, as they did in the village for the by-election, they do much better than what the overall polls suggest.

    A pretty uncontroversial point. But it is relevant to LD seats that on paper look like falling to a national swing, but where a good ground-game with resources in hand could defend.

  42. Although seen in the context of previous results in that ward (ie prior to 2011) its still pretty awful for the LDs

  43. If the lib dems want to target this seat fine

  44. [email protected] did you use to be known as Gloy Plopwell?

  45. The Lib Dems? Gedling? No way, never in a million years. Ashfield may have nearly come off for them last time, but this Nottinghamshire seat’s another story entirely.

  46. It was rather miraculous that Labour held this in 2010 in the face of the national picture against them. Does Vernon Coaker have a personal vote, or is it trending the same way Broxtowe is (as has been discussed on here in that thread)?

  47. Its one of the classic examples of northern(ish) middle class suburbia trending labour.

  48. Coaker seems like a sensible chap you could have a pint with – as i said no idea why he voted for balls up. I can imagine him commanding extra votes but as we’ve been through there is quite clearly change in the area, probably more in carlton rather than thge north. Perhaps the public sector middle class has also increased.

  49. I have to say it would be hilarious if the lib dems really did think they could win here to coin a phrase, the decapitation strategy, bar charts, visits from chat show charlie etc.

  50. They’d need another effective personality like Jason Zadrozny to get into contention here, and I find it highly unlikely this will happen any day soon.

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