Gateshead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 5502 (14.5%)
Labour: 21549 (56.8%)
Lib Dem: 2585 (6.8%)
Green: 1548 (4.1%)
UKIP: 6765 (17.8%)
MAJORITY: 14784 (39%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Tyne and Wear. Part of the Gateshead council area.

Main population centres: Gateshead.

Profile: Gateshead is set on the south bank of the Tyne, opposite Newcastle. It was formerly a heavy industrial town and in the 1980s suffered the high unemployment associated with the decline of the old manufacturing industries. More recently it has seen substantial redevelopment, particularly the old quayside areas which have been developed as a cultural quarter with several iconic buildings such as the Millenium Bridge and the Baltic Centre for contemporary art. Just outside the seat is the MetroCentre, the largest shopping centre in the country and the Team Valley, the heart of old industrial Gateshead, is now developing as a business park instead. Beyond the quayside Gateshead remains a largely white, working-class seat with around a quarter of the seat still made up of social housing.

Politics: The Gateshead seat was recreated in 2010, having previously been split into eastern and western parts (the western part latterly forming half of the cross-river Tyne Bridge seat). Both of the preceeding seats have a solid history of Labour representation, only briefly interupted by Gateshead West MP John Horam`s defection to the SDP in 1981 (uniquely amongst the SDP defectors, Horam went on to re-emerge as a Conservative MP and now sits as a Tory peer).


Current MP
IAN MEARNS (Labour) Born 1957. Educated at St Marys RC Technical College. Former British Gas worker. Gateshead councillor from 1983. First elected as MP for Gateshead in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5716 (15%)
Lab: 20712 (54%)
LDem: 8163 (21%)
BNP: 1787 (5%)
Oth: 1879 (5%)
MAJ: 12549 (33%)
2005*
Con: 2962 (11%)
Lab: 16151 (61%)
LDem: 5751 (22%)
BNP: 1072 (4%)
Oth: 447 (2%)
MAJ: 10400 (39%)
2001
Con: 3456 (13%)
Lab: 18345 (70%)
LDem: 3213 (12%)
Oth: 1018 (4%)
MAJ: 14889 (57%)
1997
Con: 3861 (11%)
Lab: 26767 (77%)
LDem: 2785 (8%)
Oth: 518 (1%)
MAJ: 22906 (66%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Tyne Bridge

Demographics
2015 Candidates
THOMAS SMITH (Conservative)
IAN MEARNS (Labour) See above.
FRANK HINDLE (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Heathfield School and Sheffield University. IT developer. Gateshead councillor since 1991. Contested Gateshead East and Washington West 2005, Gateshead 2010.
JOHN TENNANT (UKIP)
ANDY REDFERN (Green) Contested Gateshead 2010.
Links
Comments - 14 Responses on “Gateshead”
  1. Did the old seat of Tyne Bridge cover the city centres of the two metropolitan boroughs of Newcastle-upon-Tyne and Gateshead?

  2. My forecast for 2015

    Lab 61
    LD 13
    UKIP 10
    Con 9
    Others 7

  3. And here is my forecast for Gateshead for 2015:

    Lab 63
    Con 12
    Lib Dem 9
    UKIP 9
    Green 3
    TUSC 2
    Others 2

    I partly guessed this from local elections results-TUSC’s local election results were generally woeful, but they got some of their better results in Gateshead wards. The North East will see some of the biggest woe for the Liberal Democrats-the fact the Lib Dems had the heaviest loss in the Euro elections in this region is just the start. UKIP might just do more damage to Labour than to the Conservatives in seats like this one.

  4. prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 60%
    Con- 13%
    UKIP- 11%
    Lib- 9%
    Green- 4%
    TUSC- 2%
    BNP- 1%

  5. Labour: 59%
    UKIP: 15%
    Conservatives: 13%
    Lib Dems: 8%
    Green: 3%
    Others: 2%

  6. Frank Hindle to stand for the Lib Dems

  7. Prediction (on a turnout of 38k)

    Labour 20k
    Liberal 6k
    Tory 6k
    Ukip 5.5k
    Green 0.5k

  8. UKIP are campaigning hard in parts of this constituency. Could take labour by surprise. I think they’ll do well here.

  9. Labour hold. 15,000 majority

  10. I’ve had a knock on the door from both UKIP and the Lib Dems here this week. Campaign is heating up I think

  11. rather surprised at the LDs bothering, but then there’s no seat within 30 miles or so which they have any chance of winning anyway. I doubt that the campaign in this seat will generate much in the way of heat.

  12. LDs seem active at a local level in some council wards, but only successful in one out of the ten wards in the constituency. The rest are solid labour, but real UKIP threat to them in at least 2 council wards (Saltwell and Lobley Hill).

    Local elections here could be interesting, but in the GE I can’t see anything beyond Ian Mearns returning to Westminster with a 10,000 majority over UKIP in second place.

  13. In 2017, this will be a safe Labour hold, but on a lower turnout than usual, and a significantly reduced majority in my view. 56% Leave will be enough for a good Tory result. Perhaps:

    Labour 17k (48%)
    Conservative 9k (25%)
    LD 4k (11%)
    UKIP 4k (11%)
    Green 1.5k (4%)

  14. Due to the Brexit Party not standing Electoral Calcus is convinced this will be really close – surely a flaw of their system t as the Tories only got 23.9% in 2017 and I am not sure it’s that leavy to gain mass defections

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