Gainsborough

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25949 (52.7%)
Labour: 10500 (21.3%)
Lib Dem: 3290 (6.7%)
Green: 1290 (2.6%)
UKIP: 7727 (15.7%)
Others: 505 (1%)
MAJORITY: 15449 (31.4%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Lincolnshire.. Includes the West Lindsey district and a single ward from East Lindsey.

Main population centres: Gainsborough, Market Rasen, Wragby, Saxilby, Caistor.

Profile: A large, flat, agricultural area in the north west of Lincolnshire, stretching from the inland port of Gainsborough on the river Trent in the west to the Lincolnshire Wolds in the east and the dormitory villages around Lincoln in the south. The seat contains Market Rasen racecourse and RAF Scampton, the home of the Red Arrows.

Politics: This is a reliable Conservative seat, while majorities have sometimes fallen below 10,000, the seat and its predecessors have returned Conservative MPs since well before the Second World War.


Current MP
EDWARD LEIGH (Conservative) Born 1950, Kensington. Educated at the Oratory School and Durham University. Barrister. Richmond councillor 1974-1981. First elected as MP for Gainsborough and Horncastle in 1983. Leigh is on the social conservative right of the party, a critic of David Cameron's leadership and President of the right-wing Cornerstone group. Knighted in 2013 for political and public service.
Past Results
2010
Con: 24266 (49%)
Lab: 7701 (16%)
LDem: 13707 (28%)
UKIP: 2065 (4%)
Oth: 1512 (3%)
MAJ: 10559 (21%)
2005*
Con: 20040 (44%)
Lab: 11744 (26%)
LDem: 12037 (26%)
UKIP: 1860 (4%)
MAJ: 8003 (18%)
2001
Con: 19555 (46%)
Lab: 11484 (27%)
LDem: 11280 (27%)
MAJ: 8071 (19%)
1997
Con: 20593 (43%)
Lab: 13767 (29%)
LDem: 13436 (28%)
MAJ: 6826 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
EDWARD LEIGH (Conservative) See above.
DAVID PRESCOTT (Labour)
LESLEY ROLLINGS (Liberal Democrat)
JOHN SAXON (UKIP)
GEOFF BARNES (Green)
CHRIS DARCEL (Lincolnshire Independents)
Links
Comments - 30 Responses on “Gainsborough”
  1. Gainsborough is famous for its cheap housing.

  2. Cheap sale prices, or cheaply built? The two don’t necessarily follow

  3. Has Market Rasen always been in the various Gainsborough seats? (there have been three, counting the 1997 version)

  4. Edward Leigh was re-adopted as Conservative candidate a few days ago:

    http://www.gainsboroughconservatives.org.uk/news/edward-leigh-mp-re-adopted-executive-council

  5. this was a strong yellow area at the local level 8 years ago with on/off control of the dc and maj of county seats in the area now they are down to one county seat (still have 10 on the dc) . maybe a good study area for cons in there lib/con battles.

  6. Now Sir Edward Leigh.

  7. Has Market Rasen always been in the various Gainsborough seats? (there have been three counting the 1997 version)

  8. In the modern era, you are right, yes.

  9. Would I be right in saying that North Lincolnshire is covered by Look North Leeds and that South Lincolnshire is covered by East Midlands Today?

  10. Sir Edward Leigh will once again contest the Gainsborough seat at the next General Election, having been re-adopted as the Conservative Party candidate in late March 2013.

    http://www.gainsboroughconservatives.org.uk/news/edward-leigh-mp-re-adopted-executive-council

  11. Yesterday in the Scotter ward of West Lindsey District Council, the Conservatives held on in a two way contest with the Liberal Democrats. Keith Panter more than doubled the Liberal Democrat vote achieving 34.3%. Surprisingly UKIP who came second in the County Council elections last May didn’t stand a candidate after coming fourth in a by-election for the ward last December.

  12. THE RESULTS – North Lincolnshire is covered by Look North broadcast from Hull, which is different from that broadcast from Leeds. I think therefore South Lincs is probably covered by EM today, although there’ll be some overlap.

  13. David Prescott (son of John) selected as Labour candidate here. The Labour candidate in 2010 was Jamie McMahon, now standing for my haunt of North West Leicestershire.

  14. Sir Edward is predicted to sweep this seat again, but may be worried about the rise of UKIP. Anyone got a handle on the UKIP effect?

  15. The Lib Dem candidate is Lesley Rollings.

  16. Conservative Hold. 15,000 majority. Labour challenging for 2nd.

  17. Last three elections Lib and Lab vote together exceeded the Con vote.
    Not much democracy here.
    Little reason to vote as no hope of representation.

  18. Scotter & Blyton by-election result:
    Con 52.1% (+17.1%)
    LD 30.0% (+3.7%)
    Lab 12.4% (-3.5%)
    UKIP 5.4%.

  19. Sorry those percentages are wrong. Corrected :
    Scotter and Blyton, West Lindsey

    Con 694 (44.0%; +8.9)
    LD 555 (35.1%; +8.8)
    Lab 230 (14.6%; -1.3)
    UKIP 100 (6.3%)

  20. most interesting thing about this seat is that it has only had 3 MPs since 1924. Harry Crookshank, Marcus Kimball and Edward Leigh.

  21. “Would I be right in saying that North Lincolnshire is covered by Look North Leeds and that South Lincolnshire is covered by East Midlands Today?”

    Almost all of Lincolnshire is covered by the Belmont Transmitter which is BBC Yorkshire & Lincolnshire (i.e Hull) and ITV Yorkskire. Bits of the south west might be EM today as they might receive from Waltham rather than Belmont.

    Incidentally, a lot of North and West Norfolk was also BBC North and ITV Yorkshire (rather than BBC East and ITV Anglia) in years gone by as they also received from Belmont (rather than Talcolneston). I understand this has now been “fixed” thanks to a local UHF relay station for the “anglia” broadcasts.

  22. Peter- yes, though Gainsborough is actually a more interesting seat than first appears. It may have consistently voted Tory but it’s only recently that it has done so decisively- the Tories did not breach 60pc until 2017. The Liberals had some near misses in the 20s and 30s as did Labour after the war.

  23. tory,

    it was the longevity of the MPs I was noticing, not so much the consistency of the tory vote…! It was a liberal seat before Crookshank won it in ’24, the liberals were competitive with the tories there before then… can’t off hand think of a seat which has had only 3 mps in the last 93 years. Saffron Walden may have come close until earlier this year had only had 3 MPs since 1929, but haselhurst stood down this year.

  24. I think you’re right Peter.

    There are 2 seats remaining which have only had 2 postwar MPs. If we take Clay Cross as the linear predecessor of Bolsover, that seat has had Harold Neal (Lab) until 1970, and Dennis Skinner ever since : and we if take Hudderfield East as the linear predecessor (and successor) of Huddersfield, that seat has had Sir Joseph “Curly” Mallalieu (Lab) until 1979, and Barry Sheerman ever since.

  25. if we take* Huddersfield East etc.. whoops.

  26. What about the opposite? Which seats have had a particularly high turnover of MPs?

    Glasgow East has had five different MPs in the last ten years. Any advances on that?

  27. 5 MPs in 10 years seems unlikely to be beaten.

    The Gainsborough continuity is remarkable. Even more impressive, arguably, than the famed Liverpool Scotland seat which had two members between 1885 and 1964.

  28. Sir Edward Leigh has been made a privy Councillor.

  29. Sir Edward Leigh has announced he will stand for the speakership when a vacancy occurs – and that he will be a traditional speaker (hinting he will revive the wig for example.) He will also oppose the moving out of the commons to Richmond house and that the restoration should be as short as possible and maybe not a total decant.

  30. West Lindsey ward by-election, 24.10.19:

    Cons 378
    LD 346
    Brexit 299 ( 28% )
    Labour 37

    That is the highest yet for the Brexit Party in a local. Torksey is said to contain a lot of caravans where OAPs moved from Notts etc.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)