Fylde

2015 Result:
Conservative: 21406 (49.1%)
Labour: 8182 (18.8%)
Lib Dem: 1623 (3.7%)
Green: 1381 (3.2%)
UKIP: 5569 (12.8%)
Independent: 5166 (11.9%)
Others: 230 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 13224 (30.4%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: North West, Lancashire. The whole of the Flyde council area and one ward from Preston council area.

Main population centres: Lytham St Anne`s, Kirkham, Wesham, Warton, Freckleton.

Profile: The Flyde is the flat peninsula between the River Ribble and Morecambe Bay. The seat includes only the southern part of it. The largest settlement is the genteel coastal resort of Lytham St Annes, a major golfing centre that regularly hosts the British Open, followed by the former textile town of Kirkham. This is an affluent area with a high-level of owner-occupation. Major industries include nuclear fuels and aerospace and the seat also includes Weeton Army Camp and part of Blackpool airport. Some of the initial test sites for Shale Gas extraction have also taken place here.

Politics: An extremely safe Conservative seat. Including the period between 1950 and 1983 when Fylde was divided into two seats it has been held by the Conservatives since the creation of the original Fylde seat in 1918. An independent anti-fracking candidate, Mike Hill, got twelve percent of the vote here in 2015, one of the strongest performances for an independent candidate.


Current MP
MARK MENZIES (Conservative) Born 1971, Ayrshire. Educated at Keil School and Glasgow University. Contested Glasgow Govan 2001, Selby 2005. First elected as MP for Fylde in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 22826 (52%)
Lab: 8624 (20%)
LDem: 9641 (22%)
UKIP: 1945 (4%)
Oth: 654 (1%)
MAJ: 13185 (30%)
2005*
Con: 24287 (53%)
Lab: 11828 (26%)
LDem: 7748 (17%)
Oth: 1647 (4%)
MAJ: 12459 (27%)
2001
Con: 23383 (52%)
Lab: 13773 (31%)
LDem: 6599 (15%)
UKIP: 982 (2%)
MAJ: 9610 (21%)
1997
Con: 25443 (49%)
Lab: 16480 (32%)
LDem: 7609 (15%)
Oth: 163 (0%)
MAJ: 8963 (17%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARK MENZIES (Conservative) See above.
JED SULLIVAN (Labour)
FRED VAN MIERLO (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL WHITE (UKIP)
ROBERT DENNETT (Green)
ELIZABETH CLARKSON (Northern Party)
MICHAEL HILL (Independent) Born 1966, Kent. Educated at Loughborough University of Technology. Chartered Electronic Engineer. Owns own engineering small business.
Links
Comments - 116 Responses on “Fylde”
  1. Given that the LibDems, Labour, the Greens and UKIP have no chance the best thing might be for them to keep beneath the headlights and see if Michael Hill can see off a Conservative candidate who if elected is likely to limp along at Westminster like a lame duck.

  2. There are some comments here which I find distastefully homophobic. If I lived in this constituency, I would be tempted to vote for Mr Menzies for that reason alone – I suppose it’s my Anglo Saxon sense of fair play. The polls suggest Mr Menzies will be re-elected with a sizeable majority – good luck to him.

  3. Is Monty, Mark Menzies perhaps, or Tim Montgomerie?

  4. Not a great Tory result here at all though Labour also fell back a bit. One has to say that Mark Menzies’ electoral record so far has been rather poor.

  5. He did better than I thought, given the revelations and we’re still awaiting his promised statement.

    Inds performed well against several Tories – eg Hugo in East Devon – but none spent/had enough to win.

  6. At least the Independent here saved his deposit.

    It looks like this area may be stuck with a lame-duck MP for many years.

    is there any chance that this seat could be chopped in half at the next boundary changes?

  7. Any chance that this seat might disappear under water? It would be one way of getting rid of the current MP, who does not seem to be exactly popular.

  8. “Is there any chance that this seat could be chopped in half at the next boundary changes?”

    The only alternative to this seat would be a “Blackpool South & Lytham St Annes” that would be a semi marginal Conservative seat. The other Blackpool constituency in that case would be “Blackpool North” that would be a Labour marginal. I assume that it would be possible to create a Fylde (peninsula) constituency that would cover the rural parts of the current Fylde and Fleetwood and Cleevleys.

  9. I think it definitely has to be said that the Tory vote share decrease here wasn’t a very good result for them.

  10. But far from a disastrous one either, considering that an independent got 12% of the vote and UKIP 13%. I wouldn’t read much into it.

  11. Majority increased slightly. Given the indie, not a bad result.

  12. I would imagine that the decline of tourism and increase in public sector employment would be marginally detrimental to the Tories here. However, this would be more evident in the neighbouring Blackpool constituencies.

  13. I suspect that the Tories are concentrating on redrawing boundaries and raising issues to win both Blackpool seats in 2020. There doesn’t seem to e much progress on Fylde’s own interests e.g. electrifying the railway through Lytham St. Annes and/or extending the tram routes from Blackpool.

    This area would appear ideal for train/trams, going along the front in Blackpool and then moving onto the railway to continue to Kirkham and Preston..

    Of course, it does not help to progress such ideas to have a lame duck MP.

  14. The proposal to include Poulton-le-Fylde in this seat instead of a couple of Blackpool wards around the airport is not going to make a lot of difference. If anything it will simply make a safe Conservative seat safer.

    The real issue here is how to get rid of an unsatisfactory Conservative MP, e.g. by getting a campaign going for an independent. Boundary changes are not going to have much effect on this.

  15. Work began on the first fracking site in the North West today, here.

    I’d say the whole North, but not sure whether any work has begun in Ryedale yet.

  16. St Johns Ward By-Election Result:

    Fylde Ratepayers 564
    Conservative 278
    Labour 45
    Green 40

    Spoilt: 3

    Fylde Ratepayers’ Hold 26% Turnout

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