Finchley & Golders Green

2015 Result:
Conservative: 25835 (50.9%)
Labour: 20173 (39.7%)
Lib Dem: 1662 (3.3%)
Green: 1357 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1732 (3.4%)
MAJORITY: 5662 (11.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Barnet council area.

Main population centres: Finchley, Golders Green, Hampstead Garden Suburb, Childs Hill.

Profile: A well-to-do residential seat with a large Jewish population. It is an affluent area, with little social housing - although there are some high rise council developments in Childs Hill. Golders Green is best known for its large Jewish population, and the seat has the highest proportion of Jewish residents of any seat in the country, with just over 20% of the population describing themselves as Jewish in the 2011 census..

Politics: Politically Finchley is, of course, most associated with Margaret Thatcher who was the MP her for 33 years between 1959 and 1992. Rudi Viz won the seat on its new boundaries in 1997, an unexpected victory, and it remained Labour for 13 years before being regained by the Conservatives in 2010.


Current MP
MIKE FREER (Conservative) Born 1960, Manchester. Educated at Chadderton Grammar School and Stirling University. Former area manager for Barclays Bank. Barnet councillor 1990-94, 2001-10, leader of Barnet council 2006-09. Contested Harrow West 2005. First elected as MP for Finchley & Golders Green in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21688 (46%)
Lab: 15879 (34%)
LDem: 8036 (17%)
UKIP: 817 (2%)
Oth: 737 (2%)
MAJ: 5809 (12%)
2005*
Con: 16746 (39%)
Lab: 17487 (40%)
LDem: 7282 (17%)
GRN: 1136 (3%)
Oth: 563 (1%)
MAJ: 741 (2%)
2001
Con: 16489 (38%)
Lab: 20205 (46%)
LDem: 5266 (12%)
GRN: 1385 (3%)
Oth: 330 (1%)
MAJ: 3716 (9%)
1997
Con: 19991 (40%)
Lab: 23180 (46%)
LDem: 5670 (11%)
Oth: 781 (2%)
MAJ: 3189 (6%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MIKE FREER (Conservative) See above.
SARAH SACKMAN (Labour) Educated at Cambridge University. Barrister.
JONATHAN DAVIES (Liberal Democrat) Contested Finchley and Golders Green 1997.
RICHARD KING (UKIP) Educated at Nottingham University. IT project manager.
ADELE WARD (Green) Educated at Newlands School and Royal Holloway. Publisher and former journalist.
Links
Comments - 443 Responses on “Finchley & Golders Green”
  1. Mayoral results (excluding postal):

    Goldsmith 13534 47.4%
    Khan 10072 35.3%

  2. I have to say the proposals here are a bit of a mess. Finchley and GG is split three ways – between Hendon, ‘Hampstead and Golders Green’ (of which more on the H&K thread shortly) and ‘Finchley and Southgate’. I don’t particularly object to the pairing of Finchley and Southgate, but I do to pairing them and in the process splitting Finchley with Church End ward not included. From a psephological standpoint it does, however, create a fascinating ultra-marginal. I expect Mike Freer would contest it, though it is possible that in the interests of saving incumbents he could head to ‘Hampstead and Golders Green’, with David Burrowes taking this.

    Notional for the seat (Electoral Calculus figures):

    LAB 24686 (44.34%)
    CON 24471 (43.95%)
    UKIP 2421 (4.35%)
    GRN 2330 (4.19%)
    LD 1737 (3.12%)
    OTH 28 (0.05%)

  3. According to wiki the population of the borough of Barnet increased by 60 thousand between 2001 and 2014.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_Borough_of_Barnet#Demographics

  4. Labour candidate for GE2017 is Jeremy Newmark.

  5. The BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg saying that Labour might win this seat! HUGE middle class Jewish population! Would be astonishing of the majority of voters chose a Corbyn-led Labour party over the Tories!

  6. The 4% swing in this seat was quite anaemic by London standards.

    It seems possible that Labour’s much publicised problems over anti-Semitism might have cost them the chance to win this seat and maybe Harrow East too.

  7. The 99% are waking up to reality.

  8. I spotted these stats in the Sunday Times:

    Employment Rates

    Male Female

    1975 92% 52%

    1990 82% 62%

    2015 78% 70%

  9. The Jewish press are all running the same ‘United We Stand’ front page headline, condemning Labour’s Anti-Semitism.

  10. What anti semitism? All Labour were doing were tweaking a few lines of the IHRA definition.

    Grow up Lancs Observer.

  11. Took the words out of my mouth, JJB (irrespective of whether you are the ‘real’ one or an imposter).

  12. I doubt that’s the real JJB. You probably agree more with the fake one.

  13. I just love the hypocrisy of those on the hard right pretending that they care about Jewish people (or anyone other than themselves frankly). Pathetic and laughable.

  14. I’ve tended to avoid making comments on this furore, perhaps because as a non-Jew I’m not confident I properly understand the issue. On the one hand there have been plenty of examples of Labour members saying nasty things, on the other there is a feeling it is perhaps being overblown somewhat. Overall I do wish we didn’t increasingly have this tiresome identity politics, but sadly it is the future I fear.

  15. I share HH feeling. I do have Jewish ancestry and spent Jewish New Year with my ex but as I am not a Jew myself I’m not going to start to pretend I have the first idea as some are doing. On HH other comment on it being overblown, I spend lots of time of Twitter and other forums where this feels like a big deal and it’s quite refreshing to see contributors on here who are honest about feeling a bit in the dark about this. There seems very little coverage of this on the news. In March and April there was wall to wall coverage but now nothing

  16. It’s less that this issue is overblown, more that people are more willing to turn a blind eye to bigotry elsewhere in politics. The Tories’ rhetoric on Sadiq Khan has been an utter disgrace, but not many people have written about that.

  17. If this is being overblown, it is most certainly because, like everything about internal Labour Party politics since September 2015, this is a proxy war over the leadership. It’s all performative.

  18. The root of this is the decision under Ed Miliband to change Labour policy to recognise Palestine.

    Like all parties, there are racist idiots in Labour, but in my view it is pretty much beyond any doubt now that this is no longer about that.

  19. I really agree with all of the above. It’s tough to comment when you aren’t Jewish, and God knows there are some on the left who are obsessed with Israel to the point of it being frightening frankly. But it all feels a little bit desperate and hysterical.

  20. Similarly when Zac attacked Sadiq Khan for sharing platform with a supporter of IS who turned out to be a Tory recruiting Muslims to the party it was all over the news but when the Tories in Havering said Mayor Khan would turn Romford into Hackney we heard nothing about it.

    Eds decision regardless of your politics was a brave one after the stick he got from some people who described him as not a real Jew and probably did him no favours

  21. “The Tories’ rhetoric on Sadiq Khan has been an utter disgrace, but not many people have written about that.”

    I was disparaging on here about Khan’s rhetoric on the Trump visit and especially on the balloon, but that’s forgivable given the things Trump has said about Khan in the past, and of course the Muslim travel ban.

    Zac Goldsmith’s campaign was very wrong-headed and I believe I said so at the time. Hopefully it will ensure that campaigns against future mainstream Muslim candidates will not be focused on spurious terrorist sympathising but on the bread and butter issues.

    I think London has enjoyed having a low-profile mayor after 16 years of two big-headed show offs. Notwithstanding the rise in crime, and we can argue who’s fault that is, I think he’s done pretty well in the circumstances and will probably be re-elected very comfortably.

  22. From what happened to both Boris and Ken after they left City Hall, it seems that the job of London Mayor is very easy to look good in.

    Its previous occupants were both very popular during their time as mayor, with appeal extending beyond their respective parties. Since then they have become a h0l0caust-denying conspiracy theorist and a proto-Trumpian rabble-rouser. I suppose if the pattern continues, we’ll see Khan abandon City Hall to join the caliphate. We liberal metropolitan armchair pundits are going to have so much egg on our faces when it turns out that Tommy Robinson, voice of the downtrodden, was right all along…

  23. “Its previous occupants were both very popular during their time as mayor”

    I wouldn’t say that. Ken was pretty unpopular by the end, unpopular enough to fail to get re-elected in what is now a very Labour city. Boris was only very narrowly re-elected in 2012 and I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t have been had he stood again in 2016.

    I wouldn’t bet against Khan being the first mayor to be re-elected twice. I can’t see any likely route to another Tory mayor of London for many years to come.

  24. We’ve been here before I think. Despite their current unpopularity Ken & Boris were popular maybe less so toward the end but Ken defeated a London Labour Party that was in its prime and Boris will be the last Tory for a long time I think.

  25. Tristan – “pathetic and laughable” – as is your hypocrisy, Tristan (sorry, I realise you even take umbrage when I name you by your middle name, even though it is your chosen moniker on here!)

    Fake JJB – I was merely stating a fact and the combined agreed headline was reviewed on the paper review too.

  26. You’ll never change. Tabloid trash to the end.

    I’m surprised you didn’t have one of your hissy fits and threaten to start suing people again!

  27. I had to laugh at HH wondering aloud a few months ago as to why this board was so quiet. Cretins like you are the reason.

  28. Happily it seems to be creaking back to life.

    We have lost almost all of the Leave voters though, aside from Lancs. People like Kieran and Runnymede seem long gone.

  29. It might be a smaller group but we have good chats

  30. Not if I have anything to do with it!

  31. Tristan – you’d be kept rather busy if everyone you defamed sued you!

    After all on this thread (26/07/18 @ 1.17pm) – merely in response my stating a fact -you alleged that it’s impossible and a lie that anyone right wing could care about Jews!

    Although on a personal note I’m happy to report my colleague has received damages – and the nutter an ASBO – after the tirade of 200 messages of abuse he received from a reader not unlike yourself.

  32. More silly partisan comments from Lancs Observer.

    The scrunity on anti semitism in Labour was legitimate at the beginning WRT Livingstone etc but it has moved beyond that into a silly factional war now.

    Interestingly Fabian Hamilton thought that Austin and Hodge’s behaviour was unacceptable.

  33. This is the Real Joe James B

    That post above is not mine.
    I came on here because I’ve been told that this impersonator is on Political Betting aswell, and
    wanted to warn posters here.
    I never post on there, so you can take it that anything on there is not mine.

    Whoever you are I’m not sure, although is it A Brown?

  34. Labour winning a seat in Childs Hill ward was a bit of a surprise in the context of the other results.

    I would say Labour has a 50/50 chance of winning Chipping Barnet at the next election but that they would need a different leader to win Hendon or here.

  35. Fake JJB – how’s that view going for you in light of revelations over the past 3 days since your post?

    Of course you can’t agree the international definition, as that’d result in suspending Milne.

    But you discipline Jewish Labour MPs – whose relatives died during the H – because they criticise the dear Leader.

    Now something is partisan, but not the facts I reported.

  36. “Of course you can’t agree the international definition, as that’d result in suspending Milne”

    Hadn’t thought about it that way. Is there anything Corbyn’s closest acolytes could get the sack for? I’m all for loyalty usually but when protecting one person at all costs comes at the price of the entire party’s reputation it gets bloody daft.

    This trait suggests (as if we didn’t know already) that Corbyn would be a disastrous PM.

  37. Short of actually breaking the law, I don’t think Milne or McDonnell would ever be sacked. It’s not so much loyalty on Corbyn’s part, it’s more dependence. He relies heavily on them to help clarify his own thinking. I’m not sure he’d be nearly so effective without them.

  38. Even a PM as ideological as Maggie knew when her closest confidants had done enough damage that she had to throw them under a bus – Cecil Parkinson, Nicholas Ridley, John Moore, Sir Alan Walters, Leon Brittan (yes, unbelievable as it seems today, he was very close to Thatcher in the early 80s). This is an essential skill for any successful Prime Minister and Corbyn clearly doesn’t have it.

  39. It’s part of the bunker mentality of Corbynism. When you’re an outsider, you have to stick together with your fellow travellers just to survive.

    This made sense back in 2015-16, when Corbyn’s hold on the party was rather shakier. Now, it looks like paranoia, but when you’ve been on the fringes for so long it becomes hard-wired.

  40. I must make a mental note to introduce myself as a bunker corbynite

  41. As a Corbynite do you not feel that if Corbyn could sweep the people responsible for this out of the party, whether close to him or not, it would significantly improve his chances of winning an election and of governing effectively?

    Fear of Corbyn appears to be worth 5-10% on the Tory vote share at the moment. Making a real effort to allay such fears would pay electoral dividends….McDonnell appears to agree with this view.

  42. Matt: if more Corbyn supporters were like you, I’d look much more kindly on the movement. But if you want me to come up with creative insults for Corbynistas so you can use them ironically, I’d be more than happy to help 🙂

    Hemmy: as a swing voter, I’d be much more likely to vote Labour if that happened.

  43. Yes. Though I don’t understand the comment about Milne. Has he written something I wasn’t aware of or are we just talking about his general coordination of labours comms and it being incriminating?

  44. Have to say, I think Milne is an exceptionally intelligent guy. His book on the Miners Strike is first class, though it goes without saying I disagree with much of it. Corbyn appears to be a bit dim-witted hence relies very heavily on comrades like Milne and McDonnell who are far brighter.

  45. Matt Wilson: “I must make a mental note to introduce myself as a bunker Corbynite.”

    Seems like Matt Zarb-Cousin actually agrees with me that the bunker mentality is a thing:

    https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1026456413852327938

    That doubles the number of things we agree on.

  46. Looking at this objectively, it is now predominantly a factional war with some people using it to attack Corbyn/ result of it being a free speech etc issue on Israel/elements of zionism .

    Arguably Corbyn’s stock has slid among elements of the PLP.

    Although there are now very clear divisions in momentum as well.

    That said the Willsman thing was a story, saying he hadn’t noticed any anti semitism (as opposed to the trump voters thing which was an implicit attack on Stephen Pollard and Jonathan Arkush, who are very conservative Trump supporters)

    Although a very bad actual clear cut case of anti semitism today from an NPF candidate George Mcmanus saying ‘Apparently Electoral Commission states that Watson received £50,000+ from Jewish donors. At least Judas only got 30 pieces of silver.”

  47. For the record the splits in Momentum are very real and I personally feel very welcome. When Momentum made the decision to remove their endorsement of Willsman many within the group accepted or welcomed it but another (mostly online) faction called this a betrayal and hilariously started claiming Momentum where in collusion with the Blairites.

    I think some of the sensible elements within Momentum (Jon Lansman Matt Zarb-Cousin, Ash Sarkar, Michael Segalov, Rhea Wolfson etc) are starting to click onto some of the cultish nastiness they have inadvertently unleashed within Labour and are taking steps to try and curtail it, others though like Chris Williamson, Paul Mason and to a lesser extent Aaron Bastani are still sticking their heads in the sand and shouting “Blairite coup” If the “Momentum Moderates” win out here then that is great news for the left generally but it requires them somehow convincing the vast majority of the Corbyn supporters that he’s got this issue (anti Semitism within the party) totally wrong, that’s not going to be easy.

    And on a personal note I find Paul Mason’s decision to plant his flag on the “hard-line” wing of Momentum to be a real disappointment, I’ve always admired him and thought he’s been one of the finer advocates for the Labour left. Less so now sadly.

  48. Chris Williamson is right on Marc Wadsworth though which was a slightly murky affair, will be interesting to see what happens with his legal action.

  49. A bunker corbynite I must be!

    In all seriousness his tweet sounds great. Who doesn’t want those things but it is a bit ambiguous. When I try to talk about what I think I try to be practical otherwise it does sound a bit vacous. I remember someone saying in the leadership campaign Yvette Cooper said alot of things you couldn’t disagree but part of that was because you couldn’t quite pin down what she meant. So I try to avoid saying things like reach out, bigger picture, etc. People should just talk about what they aee doing.

    Moderate momentum is a new one on me. I’ve heard this phrase soft corbynite so I suppose that’s similar. I’m quite happy to say I’m on the left but I dislike phrases like soft left and hard left bit like far right. More vacous expressions imo. I get Corbyn and Tim Farron might be on the left but obviously one is clearly further to the left than the other they can both be on the left without having to distinguish themselves with bland words in fear of talking about actually policy. Therefore I am happy to say I wish Rhea, etc. a successful career in influencing momentum & Labour but I wont be calling myself a hard or moderate momentumite

    I do really like Bastani I think his problem is he gets drawn into talking about the wrong things and wastes too much time explaining unnessary details imo. If he went on Ted Talk hed be great. But tbf it might not be his fault Ash Sakar was saying she gets asked on to GMB to talk about lots of trivial things snd when she says no I’d rather talk about something that matters like housing they say no

  50. The Metro, Times, Telegraph and Mail front pages all go on Corbyn’s wreath laying and his changing accounts of the affair.

    The Metro sub headline is the most stark:

    “Corbyn was present at terrorist tribute” – although I found the mere full photograph from the Telegraph most effective on news stands.

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