Filton & Bradley Stoke

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22920 (46.7%)
Labour: 13082 (26.6%)
Lib Dem: 3581 (7.3%)
Green: 2257 (4.6%)
UKIP: 7261 (14.8%)
MAJORITY: 9838 (20%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Avon. Part of South Gloucestershire council area.

Main population centres: Filton, Stoke Gifford, Bradley Stoke, Almondsbury, Severn Beach.

Profile: Filton and Bradley Stoke stretches around the north of Bristol. Filton, effectively a suburb of Bristol, is a centre for the aviation industry. Parts for the Airbus A380 are manufactured in Airbus`s Filton plant before being shipped to Broughton for assembly. The large Bradley Stoke housing development was built in the late 1980s and now forms a dormitory suburb for Bristol. The constituency also includes the villages of Almondsbury and Severn Beach to the West, alongside the Second Severn Crossing into Wales. Bristol Filton Airport lies in the seat - it was closed at the end of 2012 and, as of 2013, its future remains unclear..

Politics: Filton and Bradley Stoke was created for the 2010 and expected to be a close three way marginal. In the event it was the Conservatives that came out top in the first election, and with the collapse of the Liberal Democrats their majority in 2015 grew to a comfortable twenty percent.


Current MP
JACK LOPRESTI (Conservative) Born 1969, Bristol. Former Mortgage broker and estate agent. Bristol councillor 1999-2007. Contested Bristol East 2001, South West region 2004 European election. First elected as MP for Filton & Bradley Stoke in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19686 (41%)
Lab: 12772 (26%)
LDem: 12197 (25%)
UKIP: 1506 (3%)
Oth: 2140 (4%)
MAJ: 6914 (14%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JACK LOPRESTI (Conservative) See above.
IAN BOULTON (Labour) Director of a training company. South Gloucestershire councillor since 2011.
PETE BRUCE (Liberal Democrat)
BEN WALKER (UKIP) Born Bristol. Educated at Filton High School. Formerly served in the Royal Navy. South Gloucestershire councillor since 2011, originally elected as a Conservative.
DIANA WARNER (Green) GP.
Links
Comments - 84 Responses on “Filton & Bradley Stoke”
  1. As an amendment to my previous post and I know it doesn’t sound very Conservative, but I support the idea of a 30% income tax rate for earnings in the £40-50k range.

    By doing this, the government could still claim that they’re cutting taxes for the aspirational classes, would make it more affordable in today’s economic climate than a straight forward rise in the 40% threshold, would bridge the gap between the two main tax rates (improving some peoples work incentives) and would give the government for flexibility when altering tax rates and thresholds in the future.

    All this would still need to be done alongside the raising of the personal allowance to £10k+ so not as to attract too much criticism from Labour and so that the Tories can still claim no to have forgotten those at the bottom of the income scale.

  2. Which seats was Winterbourne in before 2010?

  3. i think it was in the old northavon before 2010

  4. Harry- IIRC Winterbourne was in Bristol NW between 1983 and 2010.

  5. On second thoughts I think I’m talking nonsense. We need Mr Whitehead here but I now think it was in Kingswood before 2010.

  6. Winterbourne was in Northavon before 2010

  7. How much of this constituency was in Bristol North West from 1983 to 2010?

  8. This will be a tough challenge for Labour but not outlandishly so. As a new seat, with no tactical history, it’s not surprising that the Labour/Lib Dem vote split down the middle. Also a substantial proportion of the Lib Dem vote will have been transferred personal vote from the old Northavon seat. That should unwind pretty quickly even without counting national trends.

  9. Labour should be able to bump up their vote just above 30% largely at the expense of the Lib Dems. It’s going to be a Tory hold so locally Labour should pour resources into the much tighter Kingswood. This one is way down their target list and they haven’t even selected a candidate yet.

  10. “How much of this constituency was in Bristol North West from 1983 to 2010?”

    Electoral Calculus:

    44.8% of Bristol NW
    21.1% of Northavon
    16.8% of Kingswood

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/bdy_west_summary.html

  11. Filton was in Bristol NW, which was my constituency in 1997 (although I voted at home in Brentford & Isleworth).

  12. ……..and Bradley Stoke was in Northavon.

  13. ‘Labour should be able to bump up their vote just above 30% largely at the expense of the Lib Dems. It’s going to be a Tory hold so locally Labour should pour resources into the much tighter Kingswood. ‘

    I think Labour will do best targeting those seats they lost in 2010 – rather than those they lost in 2005, which were unlikely Labour gains in the first place – this being a good example

  14. “I think Labour will do best targeting those seats they lost in 2010 – rather than those they lost in 2005, which were unlikely Labour gains in the first place – this being a good example”

    This wasn’t a seat that Labour lost in 2005, because is didn’t exist in 2005, it was only created at the last election, which is what I meant about having no real tactical history.

  15. It was notionally a very narrow Conservative lead over Labour in 2005 but that’s factoring in a large Lib Dem incumbency effect from the old Northavon parts of the seat:

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/filtonandbradleystoke/

  16. I think this is one of the trickiest seats in the UK to assess.

    But here’s what Ladbrokes will have:
    1/3 Cons
    9/4 Lab

  17. Labour still haven’t selected here – wonder why?

  18. In terms of swing required this seat is close-ish to South Derbyshire if I remember correctly. It is a mystery why Labour hasn’t selected yet. There’s a considerable Lib Dem vote for Labour to exploit next year though I still have this down as a Conservative hold.

  19. Yes exactly. This ought to be more viable than Bristol NW for Labour. But not selecting a candidate isn’t a recipe for success – just ask the Tories in Brent N or Hyndburn about that. If this seat isn’t to be surrendered to the Tories by default, a selection needs to take place soon.

  20. I believe Labour’s best areas here are Filton and Patcham.

  21. Staple Hill in the Mangotsfield area is the best ward for Labour by far

  22. Yes, even in 2010, Labour would probably have led the Tories by two to one in Staple Hill. It is probably the most deprived ward in the constituency and maybe exhibits some of the characteristics of the east Bristol wards adjoining it.

  23. prediction for 2015-

    con- 38%
    lab- 29%
    Lib- 22%
    UKIP- 11%

  24. Any timetable for when Labour selects is candidate here? So far they’ve chosen a (replacement) PPC for Kingswood of the three S. Gloucestershire seats.

  25. 2011 local election results:

    Con 13,983 (46.4%)
    Lab 9351 (31.0%)
    LD 4438 (16.0%)

    All three main parties stood in each ward. UKIP did not stand in any.

  26. Sorry-

    Con 13 983 (46.4%)
    Lab 9351 (31.0%)
    LD 5101 (16.9%)

    But the essential point still stands- Labour did not benefit disproportionately from Lib Dem decline. This may well be the kind of area where Labour does better in general elections than in local ones- even so I don’t expect Jack Lopresti to have any real problems here in 2015.

  27. Thanks.
    I think it’s larger urban areas where Labour can do better in General Elections rather than new towns or outlying estates. This looks like pretty good news for the Tories – they may slightly increase their lead. I think they will in Bristol NW aswell although that is of course within a large city.

  28. Conservative Hold. 4,000 maj.

  29. 9,838 Shaun.

    I see one Conservative was elected in Patchway in the local elections on the same day – the other 2 seats Labour held

    http://sites.southglos.gov.uk/elections/results.php?y=2015&ti=district&e=38&t=59

  30. Jack Lopresti is one of at least three Tory Mp’s facing tough battles to be re selected by their local parties.

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