Feltham & Heston

2015 Result:
Conservative: 14382 (29.1%)
Labour: 25845 (52.3%)
Lib Dem: 1579 (3.2%)
Green: 1390 (2.8%)
UKIP: 6209 (12.6%)
MAJORITY: 11463 (23.2%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hounslow council area.

Main population centres: Feltham, Heston.

Profile: Feltham and Heston are the south and east of Heathrow airport respectively, and the airport is both a major source of local employment and, due to its possible expansion, a major political issue locally. Feltham was traditionally an area of blue collar Labour strength, but with the right to buy it is increasingly owner-occupied and has become the more Conservative half of the seat. It is also home to Feltham Young Offenders Institute. Heston meanwhile, once the more Conservative part of the seat, is now home to a large Sikh community and strongly Labour.

Politics: The seat was Conservative between 1983 and 1992, but in 1997 and 2001 Labour managed to secure a huge majority with nearing 60% of the vote. The Conservatives enjoyed an 8.4% swing in 2005 and have enjoyed success at local elections, but the Labour majority is still substantial and was further bolstered by the 2010 boundary changes. The by-election following the death of Alan Keen in 2011 was easily held by Labour.

By-Election: There was a by-election in this seat in LAB HOLD. For full details see here.


Current MP
SEEMA MALHOTRA (Labour) Born 1972, London. Educated at Warwick University. Former management consultant and chair of the Fabian Society. Contested South West London 2004 London assembly election. First elected as MP for Feltham and Heston in 2011 by-election. Shadow Chief Secretary since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16516 (34%)
Lab: 21174 (44%)
LDem: 6679 (14%)
BNP: 1714 (4%)
Oth: 2453 (5%)
MAJ: 4658 (10%)
2005*
Con: 10921 (29%)
Lab: 17741 (48%)
LDem: 6177 (17%)
GRN: 815 (2%)
Oth: 1628 (4%)
MAJ: 6820 (18%)
2001
Con: 8749 (24%)
Lab: 21406 (59%)
LDem: 4998 (14%)
Oth: 1024 (3%)
MAJ: 12657 (35%)
1997
Con: 12563 (27%)
Lab: 27836 (60%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
Oth: 859 (2%)
MAJ: 15273 (33%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SIMON NAYYAR (Conservative)
SEEMA MALHOTRA (Labour) See above.
ROGER CROUCH (Liberal Democrat) Contested Feltham and Heston 2011 by-election.
PETER DUL (UKIP) Works in marine insurance. Contested Richmond Park 2005, 2010.
TONY FIRKINS (Green) Educated at Cambridge University. Mobile phone network operator.
Links
Comments - 67 Responses on “Feltham & Heston”
  1. Four Conservative councillors in this constituency’s side of Hounslow, facing internal disciplinary proceedings, have jumped ship to UKIP:

    http://www.hounslowchronicle.co.uk/west-london-news/local-hounslow-news/2013/06/03/hounslow-tory-defectors-move-over-to-ukip-109642-33422253/

  2. 5 of the 10 wards in this constituency elected at least one Conservative councillor in 2010 (though the other 5 are very safe Labour), but none is at all safe. This sort of disunity in the Hounslow Conservative Party will make it very hard for them to hold most of these seats, or regain them. I think that Mark Bowen has a good chance of holding on to his seat in Feltham N ward, where he has a strong personal vote – he seems to have carried the ward in the parliamentary by-election, while the other 9 all voted Labour – but I’d be surprised if any of the other seats were held now. Hanworth Park isn’t a straightforward Labour gain but it looks very hard for the Tories to win it now & surely the 3 split wards are now Labour-bound as well. UKIP will have some appeal in some of the Feltham, Hanworth & Bedfont wards but the non-white vote is gradually increasing in all of these areas & I think it unlikely that they will do more than split the vote

  3. Seems to be something seriously amiss within the association there, as at least one of them was quoted as saying they weren’t angry with the party as a whole but just the local association.

    Hot on the heels of the outcome of the Mohinder Gill case, all a bit exciting in the F&H side of Hounslow recently! I had to laugh at the brass tack shown by Gill, incidentally – found guilty on almost all charges against him, he wrote to the Chronicle expressing his delight at being cleared, and implied racism too.

  4. Overall the Tories have no chance of winning the parliamentary seat again but it would have been good if the local group retained a worthy presence on the council. There seems to be issues with councillors defecting and leaving groups all over the country at the moment

  5. As you say, it’s not very interesting here given that Labour are now pretty safe.

    I do not see the Tories being much threatened by UKIP in Brentford & Isleworth.

    It will be a lot more interesting to see whether there are any defections in the few Tory boroughs of London where UKIP have substantial potential – Hillingdon, Bexley, Bromley and possibly Hillingdon.

    A good enough UKIP performance could cost the Tories control of these councils.

  6. *Havering*, Bexley, Bromley and possibly Hillingdon

  7. Obviously this constituency is more Labour than in 1983 or 1987, but it is not to different to how it voted in 1979, and generally has not swung in Labours favour as much as some other London constituences (Brent North, Dulwich, Streatham, Ilford South, Ealing North, Harrow West, Mitcham & Morden and Croydon North).

    Labour 28,675 48.31%
    Conservative 24,570 41.39%
    Liberal 5,051 8.51%
    National Front 898 1.51%
    WRP 168 0.28%

    Electorate: 79,873; Turnout: 74.32%;
    Majority: 4,105 (6.92%)

    I would assume that Heston is now more Labour than it was in 1979 (being fairly certain that the Tories would have won in that area that year), and Feltham is more Tory.

  8. Feltham is getting much stronger for Labour again due to demographic change.

    Labour will have a Croydon North sized majority here by 2020.

  9. The Heston and Cranford areas are, to my slightly untrained eye, almost monolithic now in terms of Labour support.

    Feltham isn’t nearly as grim as it was 10-15 years ago, some pretty nice regeneration going on there albeit not to nearly the same extent as the gentrification going on in Brentford.

    As Barnaby mentioned above, part of the Conservative success in Feltham in recent times may have lay partly in the personal vote attached to Bowen, one could also partly attribute it alongside some of the WWC areas over the other end of London which have trended towards the Conservatives recently.

    This has also been an area with a reasonable level of BNP support (and there was an NF candidate, rather sadly someone I recognised as being in the year above me at school, in 2005).

  10. if mo farah hails from this seat i think there should be something to mark his achievements

  11. I was under the impression that he is from Isleworth. However, the megaband Queen were formed here. Mo Farah’s golden postbox is apparently in Twickenham though I haven’t seen it yet.

  12. Just catching up after my hols.

    Mo has two postboxes (for his two golds), one of which is in Isleworth on the parade adjacent to Isleworth station. This was due mainly to his attending my alma mater (Isleworth and Syon). I’m sure his other one is in Feltham, where he lived. I haven’t seen a gold postbox in Twickenham, although I believe there is one in the area (maybe Teddington?) but for a rower or similar rather than Mo. His Twickenham connection is of course linked to my workplace (St Mary’s) where he used to attend and train before moving to the US.

  13. The postbox in Teddington is for Mo Farah its on the High Street opposite Fara charity shop. There is no golden postbox in Feltham. Hounslow Borough has 2 one in Chiswick for a rower & the one in Isleworth for Mo.

  14. Lab 52
    Con 31
    Lib 8
    Ukip 3.5
    Other 5.5

  15. Quite a strong demographic shift to Labour here since 2010. I wouldn’t be that surprised to see the Tories below 30% and Labour closer to 55%.

  16. I hadn’t realised that Patrick Ground stood again for this seat in 1997 as Tory candidate despite having lost it in 1992.

    In fact Ground contested the seat in every election from Feb 1974 to 1997, and increased his share of the vote four times in a row from Oct 1974 to 1987.

  17. My 2015 forecast here

    Lab 53
    Con 26
    UKIP 9
    LD 5
    Others 7

  18. For any of you who are on Facebook, you may like to click on this link: it’s an image of a leaflet which is currently being put out by the Feltham Conservatives and it is a testimony to just how racially diverse they have become compared to the 2010 local elections. (I stress here that this leaflet is going out in the mainly white FELTHAM half of the constituency, which is much more culturally conservative than the mainly Indian Heston area).

    It’s always great to see the Tories making strides down the road towards racial diversity but I fear that fielding such a mixed group of candidates may cause them problems in a part of the Hounslow borough which has not always been racially calm.

    I remember picketing the BNP newspaper sale on Feltham High Street in the mid-1990s and as recently as 2006 one of their candidates came within less than 300 votes of winning a council seat in Feltham West. That ward is currently split 1 Lab/1 Con./1 UKIP but I fear that the Tory ticket of one Asian and two Polish candidate may well cost them in a ward in which they were well behind on the 2012 list vote.

    I suspect that Feltham West, like many other wards in that area, will end up being straight Labour/UKIP fights (although having said that, UKIP are only standing one candidate in that and most of the other Feltham wards). I’m sometimes accused of being a pessimist but given this fact I’d be surprised if Labour do not make gains in this part of the borough next Thursday.

    One ward where the kippers do have a realistic chance of taking all three seats is Hanworth Park. This one is shaping up to be a fascinating battle: the Tories won all three seats easily in 2006, held them comfortably in 2010 but wers thought to have lost the ward in the December 2011 by-election. The Tories did, however, recover to a narrow lead on the 2012 list vote.

    No fewer than two of the ward’s Tory councillors have since defected to UKIP and this is one of only two wards in the borough where the kippers are fielding a full slate of three (all white) candidates. The Tories are re-fielding their only incumbent Asian Councillor (Paul Jubbal) with two white standard bearers.

    Should be an interesting one to watch. (By the way, for anyone who thinks my reference to a candidate’s race is inappropriate I would simply point out that the ethnicity implied by a candidate’s name DOES make a sizeable difference in this neck of the woods and I came across a lot of racial remarks when knocking up for Labour in this ward some years ago, so it is relevant).

    Link>>> https://scontent-a-lhr.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/t1.0-9/10247454_1435250150064349_8983971709415055092_n.jpg

  19. Thanks for the info. Should indeed be interesting to watch.

    Though, on the basis of the terrible grammar on that leaflet, the Tories really should lose. Is it really so hard to put “the” into “Under Labour administration”.

  20. Personally I’d give them a pass on that.

    Leaflets are for getting across a simple message to voters: they are not meant to be perfect models of prose.

  21. Oh I do concede sometimes prose ought to be sacrificed for a succinct message. I’ve done it a few times. But “the” does not get in the way of a succinct message. That’s just someone’s sloppy grammar.

    I’m far from perfect on my grammar, but you really would hope candidates and designers would be held to better standards.

  22. Perhaps the people who wrote it have English as a second language (like the candidates themselves)?

    They speak my language better than I can speak theirs.

  23. I live in F&H. So far I have received the following communication from the prospective MPs
    Conservative: One leaflet through the door, and one day* people distributing leaflets outside Feltham station
    Green: Nothing
    Labour: Two leaflets through the door, and a local labour councillor canvessing door to door
    Lib Dems: Nothing
    UKIP: One leaflet through the door

    *I only travel to central London three days a week, so I might miss other days.

    I think Labour are on course for a comfortable win. The biq question is which of Green, LD and UKIP will save their deposits.

  24. Labour by 11000

  25. If the LibDem candidate was able to retain his deposit in a 2011 by-election, then he can surely retain it now!

  26. I suppose the one interesting dynamic in what will be an extremely dull election in this constituency (nailed on Labour hold, likely close to / slightly into 5 figure majority), is that the Conservative candidate has come out as being amenable to a third runway at Heathrow. I suspect this may have a negative impact as the likelihood is that those who might agree with him are very likely to be the stronger Labour voters for whom this wouldn’t be a game-changer, while he may lose some votes amongst anti-expansion voters.

    I think UKIP may retain their deposit after the headway made in the locals/Euros last year (aided somewhat by the defections, mind). I’d have thought they may have gone for Colin Botterell though, if he’d have been “up for it”.

  27. An update on contact from parties since last Thursday:
    Conservative – nothing
    Green – nothing
    Labour – another leaflet through the door, and a telephone call
    Lib Dem – one leaflet through the door (no mention of Nick Clegg and a very small Lib Dem logo)
    UKIP – another leaflet through the door and one day of distributing leaflets at Feltham station.

    I realise that F&H isn’t a priority seat for the Green party, but it’s disappointing to have not received any contact from them.

    Toby – Yes, but he only just saved it (5.9%) – with possible additional squeezing of the lib dem vote, it could easily drop by 1/6

    Jason – The local elections weren’t very good for UKIP in F&H. One council ward went from 2 UKIP and 1 Conservative to 3 Labour; so they might be struggling for impact.

  28. Weren’t those UKIP councillors the result of defections from the Conservatives?

    What are Feltham demographics like nowadays? I know Heston has a large Sikh community and returns Labour councillors quite strongly.

  29. Neil – yes, the 2010 elections in Hounslow returned only Labour & Conservative councillors. A number of the Feltham Conservatives (though not the Chiswick ones) defected to UKIP or went independent.
    Feltham is still majority white, but the number of non-whites is rising quite fast. The local election results showed a very sharp swing from the Tories to Labour, though the defections to UKIP clearly hurt the Tories disproportionately, and even more so the retirement of Mark Bowen, who had a huge personal vote in Feltham N ward, which now that he’s gone suddenly looks completely safe Labour again as it used to be. There is some evidence that Labour has not only benefitted from the increase in the non-white population (though not so much in Hanworth, l rather suspect) but also recovered a lot of temporarily lost support amongst many white working-class electors in these wards. l suspect the local Tories’ amazing disunity may have contributed to that to an extent. There are a few roads in parts of Feltham & Hanworth (not Bedfont l think) which are starting to attract a slightly more upmarket kind of buyer, but mostly the social composition is still predominantly working-class in the Feltham area.

  30. In the past week, it’s gone very quiet in F&H. Since my last update the only contact from the parties has been from the Green party. The candidate was giving out leaflets at Feltham station this morning, and a Green Party leaflet was delivered to my house today.

    As this is going to be a safe Labour win, I guess everyone is focussing their attentions elsewhere.

  31. Another London by-election looks, l’m afraid – Cllr Sohan Sangha (Cranford, Lab – all councillors in the constituency were elected as Labour in 2014) has sadly died.

  32. looms* not looks.

  33. Lib Dem vote definitely up substandardly at the Cranford count. May have pulled it off.

    I wasn’t able to help much because I was calling out desperately for paper and people kept giggling and leaving me there.

    Think it could be a Lib dem gain, very excriting. Stupendous momentum! (with a good mood on the ground).

  34. Cranford ward by-election:
    Result:
    LAB 1264,
    Con 638,
    LD 265
    UKIP 96
    GRN 48

    Turnout as usual shockingly low…26%

  35. Fag packet maths suggests virtually zero swing in this ward from the 2014 locals.

    Surprised the turnout was as high as 26% if I’m honest!

  36. Yes..similar result to May2014. No real swing to anyone.

  37. I’m amazed that Hounslow was 49% Leave.

    Given that much of the white population would be at the Chiswick end of the borough and voting similarly to that in Putney is it possible that non-white voters were more Leave than white voters in Hounslow ?

  38. It does seem the suggestion that BME support for Leave was surprisingly (to people who had assumed them to be a pro-Remain group) strong proved to be correct. See also the results in Newham, Enfield, Harrow and Redbridge. And outside London Bradford voted Leave, as did Slough and Oldham.

  39. The ‘assumptions’ being made by the ‘experts’ and ‘elite’ in London.

  40. Anybody thinking Hull would be strong for Remain hasn’t looked at the election results there. But I agree that Sheffield was a big surprise (I imagine there was a big divergence between working class Brightside and Hallam/Central). Nottingham also fairly astonishing. Of course these places will have been less studenty than at other times of year as exams have finished for most and that may have made the difference between a narrow Remain and a narrow Leave.

  41. Yes, it is actually far too simplistic of calling this a straightforwardly urban v rural/small town split. Birmingham, Nottingham and Sheffield all voted (albeit narrowly) to Leave and it Remain barely prevailed in Leeds or Newcastle.

  42. *to call this

  43. Heeley would probably have been quite close.

    The Leave majority in Sheffield would have come from the three wards in the Stocksbridge & Penistone constituency.

    Likewise in Leeds Remain would certainly have won Central, NE, NW while Leave led in Pudsey, Elmet and Morley. Not sure and Leeds W and Leeds E.

  44. You could say it was a urbanite class thing. Middle class Urban areas voted mostly to remain ( In Leeds and Birmingham I have been told the middle class areas were strong for remain) while working class urban people voted to leave, strongly for the white working class( except in parts of Merseyside) and very close for the BAME working class.

  45. “In Central and Hallam the wealthy voters and students voted Remain but were outvoted by the WWC in Brightside & Hillsborough and Sheffield South East.”

    A bit simplistic. There were areas of both Hallam and Central (Stannington in the former, Manor Castle in the latter) which voted overwhelmingly to leave. There will have been suburban areas of the South East and BME areas of B&H which voted to stay.

    As for Heeley, that’s tricky. Two of its wards are Lib Dem held, while a lot of energy was put into the Remain campaign in Arbourthorne. On balance I’d say it probably voted just about to Remain, on the basis of high turnout in Graves Park and Beauchief and Greenhill.

    Given the gap was only 6,000, the win for Leave in Sheffield probably did not actually come from the city, but from the northern villages and towns – Ecclesfield, Stocksbridge and Chapeltown.

    Some of the outlying villages (Ringinglow and High Bradfield) probably also voted Leave, but they’re so small they’d have been Negligible.

  46. Just Stocksbridge – Penistone is in Barnsley.

  47. It is being reported that Seema Malhotra has resigned from the shadow cabinet. If true a big shock as she seemed very close to Corbyn and especially McDonnell. Did not expect her to go at all.
    If Peston is correct all the further resignations will be the rest of the shadow cabinet who votes for action in Syria.

  48. I was busy counting votes in the Hounslow count on Thursday, and my inference has been repeated to an extent here that it’s probably the Feltham and Bedfont WWC areas that were likely Leave voters.

    I’m with BM11 re: Malhotra’s decision being something of a shock.

  49. Looking at the demographics it is amazing that Leave got so close yes some Asians voted leave but only a third did, compared to 52% nationally, I think this result really shows how differential turnout won it for Leave as I expect only the wwc to be in majority in favour of leave in a seat like this. IDS there was 80% in council estates in Essex where normally they only have 30-40% turnout!

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