Exeter

2015 Result:
Conservative: 17879 (33.1%)
Labour: 25062 (46.4%)
Lib Dem: 2321 (4.3%)
Green: 3491 (6.5%)
UKIP: 5075 (9.4%)
TUSC: 190 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 7183 (13.3%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: South West, Devon. Most of the Exeter council area.

Main population centres:

Profile: Covers all but the south-eastern part of the city of Exeter. Exeter is the county town of Devon and headquarters for Devon county council, an affluent city that is a service, administrative and retail centre for much of Devon. The seat contains the University of Exeter and, since 2004, the Met Office weather forecasting headquarters. Along with the county council offices, they are the three largest employers in the city.

Politics: Exeter is a rare example of a Labour constituency in the South-West, one of just four in what is mainly a battleground between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Unlike the other three Labour seats in the region Exeter does not have a strong history of Labour representation - prior to 1997 it had only ever been won once by Labour, by Gwyneth Dunwoody in their 1966 landslide. Ben Bradshaw`s 1997 victory came after a particularly bitter campaign against the Conservative candidate Adrian Rogers who was the head of the Conservative Family Institute and a vocal critic of homosexuality. Bradshaw has retained the seat ever since.


Current MP
BEN BRADSHAW (Labour) Born 1960, London. Educated at Thorpe St Andrew High School and Sussex University. Former BBC journalist. First elected as MP for Exeter in 1997. PPS to John Denham 2000-2001. Parliamentary under-secretary at the Foriegn office 2001-2002, Deputy leader of the House 2002-2003, Under-secretary of state for environment 2003-2006, Minister of State for the environment 2006-2007, for Health 2007-2009. Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport 2009-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 17221 (33%)
Lab: 19942 (38%)
LDem: 10581 (20%)
UKIP: 1930 (4%)
Oth: 2573 (5%)
MAJ: 2721 (5%)
2005*
Con: 14954 (27%)
Lab: 22619 (41%)
LDem: 11340 (21%)
GRN: 1896 (3%)
Oth: 4259 (8%)
MAJ: 7665 (14%)
2001
Con: 14435 (27%)
Lab: 26194 (50%)
LDem: 6512 (12%)
GRN: 1240 (2%)
Oth: 4235 (8%)
MAJ: 11759 (22%)
1997
Con: 17693 (29%)
Lab: 29398 (48%)
LDem: 11148 (18%)
Oth: 3625 (6%)
MAJ: 11705 (19%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DOMINIC MORRIS (Conservative) Educated at Birmingham University. Stabilisation and Governance Consultant.
BEN BRADSHAW (Labour) See above.
JOEL MASON (Liberal Democrat)
KEITH CRAWFORD (UKIP) Property developer and former soldier. Contested Exeter 2010, South West region 2014 European election.
DIANA MOORE (Green)
EDMUND POTTS (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 201 Responses on “Exeter”
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  1. County election results in this constituency

    Lab 42.06%
    Con 21.3%
    UKIP 17.6%
    LD 11.2%
    Green 6.45%

  2. Swing of about 8% to Labour.

  3. Ben Bradshaw must be happy with that result!!!

  4. Having looked at quite a few seats 2013 results now, the Labour Exeter performance was very robust! – I know 2009 was a rotten year to compare with – but they got 22% then, so have increased by 20%.

    They took Alphington and Cowick off the Lib Dems with a 17% swing and in 2009 they only got 175 votes and came 5th in St Davids and St James – they won the seat last week – going from 7% to 34%.

  5. A relatively good Labour and Conservative result in 2010, but one which is likely to see Labour move up quite substantially in 2015.

  6. Labour have really bucked the trend here – and look odds on for an easy hold in 2015

    it’s revealing that they poll better here than in working class Plymouth, especially considering that they did not even win exeter in 1945 – and prior to 97 had only held the seat for four years

  7. I would imagine a lot of the explanation is boundaries….the Exeter seat is much more tightly drawn around the city than it used to be. I would have thought the Tories would have won the seat quite easily on 1945 and 1960s boundaries, and probably also on the 1997-2010 boundaries. It doesn’t completely invalidate your point though. Exeter is clearly quite strongly influenced by its university vote, setting it apart somewhat from the rest of Devon.

    Plymouth has a lot of latent support for the Lib Dems, going back to the days of the SDP and perhaps beforehand. Sometimes it flares up strongly and other times it unwinds back, primarily to Labour. Arguably this was the main reason for the Tory success in Plymouth in 2010. If you look at the Tory vote share it was quite poor, not really much higher than in Exeter.

  8. Does the Liberal Party still have Cllrs here?

  9. “the Exeter seat is much more tightly drawn around the city than it used to be. I would have thought the Tories would have won the seat quite easily on 1945 and 1960s boundaries, and probably also on the 1997-2010 boundaries.”

    Horseshit. The 1945 seat was far more tightly drawn around the centre of the city than now and would be even mroe safely Labour. The 1966 boundaries were more or less the same as those pertaining up until 2010. The removal of St Loyes and Topsham wards certainly helped Labour but as we discussed recently on another thread their continued inclusion would not have been sufficient to dislodge Ben Bradshaw

  10. IIRC, the Tory leads in St Loyes and Topsham won’t have been all that great in 2010. The Tories could really do with adding wards from Teignbridge and E Devon instead, not that that is going to happen of course.

  11. Fair enough Pete but don’t you think you, erm, over-reacted a bit?

    Ironically you are one of the few people on here I always try not to be rude to 🙂

  12. I think Pete deliberately used a word you are known for using……
    You are hardly ever rude to me, but feel free to do so if you wish. I will of course hold it against you.

  13. Yes I was only teasing.

    I try to reserve rudeness for people who are trolling, being boringly repetitive or stupid, or too partisan. You and Pete I usually find very well informed, interesting and quite non-partisan.

  14. ”Yes I was only teasing.
    I try to reserve rudeness for people who are trolling, being boringly repetitive or stupid, or too partisan. You and Pete I usually find very well informed, interesting and quite non-partisan.”

    If I was you I’d try to not be rude to anyone. And let me guess, you’re referring to me, aren’t you? You really do sound like a right bully, I must say.

  15. I will continue to post on this site whether you like it or not, Hemmelig. You may not like those who don’t do everything right on this site, but ho hum nobody’s perfect and humanity wasn’t made to be that way- So sometimes can’t we be forgiven for at the very least being ‘boringly repetitive’- Christ, if that was the least of my worries, I’d be grateful.

  16. Fair enough, can we do a deal…..I won’t be rude to anyone if you stop having a “closer look” at results that anybody with half a brain cell can easily find themselves online.

  17. ”Fair enough, can we do a deal…..I won’t be rude to anyone if you stop having a “closer look” at results that anybody with half a brain cell can easily find themselves online.”

    Thank God- Some sense. Why not just stop being rude to people?

    I am a lot more intelligent than you think actually, and I wouldn’t like to be classed as ‘repetitively boring’, ‘too partisan’, ‘stupid’ or a ‘troll’.

  18. Do we have a deal then?

  19. What?

    If you seriously think I’m going to stop doing these ‘Closer Looks’ just so you’ll stop being rude to people, you’ve obviously ignored everything I just said- Just stop being rude, regardless of what I post.

  20. But it wasn’t just me asking you to stop doing them….the almost never rude Mr Barnaby Marder also, extremely politely, advised you to STFU when it comes to the closer look posts.

    To be honest they’ve become so mind numbing I’d rather take a closer look at paint drying.

  21. ”But it wasn’t just me asking you to stop doing them….the almost never rude Mr Barnaby Marder also, extremely politely, advised you to STFU when it comes to the closer look posts.
    To be honest they’ve become so mind numbing I’d rather take a closer look at paint drying.”

    Yes but to be fair to Barnaby he wasn’t rude like you were- There’s ways of saying things, and perhaps if you weren’t so abrasive I wouldn’t complain. And quite apart from the fact that he actually didn’t tell me to STFU- And don’t say that he did in so many words, because technically speaking, he did not I think you will find. And finally, you may well think my ‘closer looks’ have become mind-numbing but I enjoy doing them because I actually imagine that a good number of people would like to see them on this site in relation to certain discussions.

  22. I don’t want to intrude on an argument, but how about The Results continues if he says who he is? Mainly out of curiosity as I recall he denied being both Paul Nuttall and Martyn Barber, but he lives in that seat.

  23. No I definitely am not Paul Nuttall or Martyn Barber or a UKIP MEP or local Conservative for that matter- I’m no one important, shall we say. Seeing as you won’t say who you are Lancs Observer, and neither will Hemmelig, I won’t either as I respect my privacy, thank you, and I’m well aware of the fact that you are a journalist incidentally.

  24. “Seeing as you won’t say who you are Lancs Observer, and neither will Hemmelig”

    I have posted numerous times on here about the council ward I stood as a candidate in and when I stood so it isn’t difficult for people to work out my name if they want to.

    I do not particularly want to be google searchable as someone who posts on blogs, and that’s the reason I choose not to post under my real name.

  25. HH – likewise myself, I have just never been asked. Although with politicos wanting to regulate journos I better not say. I am just surprised as The Results is from Sefton and has conservative views. I’ll say Sam Coates as my 3rd and final guess and leave it there, but think I was right previously.

  26. My two penn’orth on this issue. I am relatively new to the site but does post (& moderate) on other sites and I always advise other posters who don’t agree with a comment or a posting style of another poster to either respond politely or just ignore them. Rudeness is unnecessary. It takes half a second to just move your eyes on to the next post along.

  27. The Lib Dem vote is still high here and will get lots of tactical support from the Tories over the next few years. I predict a close finish, but with the Tories and UKIP out of the race, the Lib Dems will turn their fire on Labour and win by 1-3,000

  28. “I am just surprised as The Results is from Sefton and has conservative views. I’ll say Sam Coates as my 3rd and final guess and leave it there, but think I was right previously.”

    The Results claims to have severe autism, and given his posting style it would be hard to call him a liar on that.

    Therefore unless he’s feigning it I don’t think he is any of the people you suggested.

  29. I certainly don’t feel the Results should be forced to reveal his identity……but I’d be really surprised if he was Paul Nuttall, I would have thought with UKIP’s rise at the moment Mr Nuttall would be rather busy, and certainly wouldn’t be digging out constituency results from the 1960’s……….

    I may be totally naive but I think the Results is a genuine poster, and genuinely wants to contribute. My guess is that he is probably rather younger than most of us (I’m 37) and I would put him at around early 20’s.

    I think the ‘closer looks’, whilst trying to be helpful, can mess up the “recent comments” section……so perhaps, as a suggestion to TR, you could compile a spreadsheet with all the results you feel might be useful, and simply post one comment with a link to that spreadsheet? Therefore if anyone does want to refer to it they know where to get it.

  30. Your last suggestion is a very good one Chris K.

  31. Lancs Observer is wrong entirely- not only would I consider myself to be a socialist, I also strongly resist any suggestions that I hold conservative views and I am most definitely not Sam Coates, in fact I haven’t even heard of him.

    Chris K on the other hand is correct- I am only 20, so I hope this at least in itself clears a few things up for Hemmelig and others.

  32. As far as I’m concerned, The Results’s posts don’t bother me at all. Ok, I concede I do get a tinge of disappointment when I see a post on a practically new thread, and it’s actually results from the 70s or something, but I certainly don’t think they’re deserving of any rudeness if that’s what’s happening. Personally, I’m grateful to TR for doing them. Thank you. However, since they’re obviously rubbing some people up the wrong way, maybe a spreadsheet might indeed be the way to go.

    On a more broad point, as one of the newer members here, I do think there is a little bit too much of a hostile attitude to some of the new intake. Don’t get me wrong – some are totally deserving of it. I think I’m going to scream if I see another speech by WindsOfChange about how the Greens are going to win Witney or something. He annoys me not because he has a different (read barmy) set of opinions, but because he so obviously refuses to heed our advice. If you guys have had to deal with his kind for a few years, I can see where the hostility comes from. However, I think that hostility has spilled over to some other newer members who aren’t being idiots, but are just new and learning the trade. They need abit more patience than I think some people are giving them. But anyway, that’s my ten cents.

    On a lighter note, since we seem to be on ‘who is he in real life’ phase, anyone want to describe what kind of person I am?

  33. Would it be fair to say you are a fellow left winger Van Fleet? I know you’ve said you support the Labour Party.

  34. Well, I believe all I’ve ever revealed here is that I’m Labour member, that I count myself on the soft left of the party, and that my party work is based in Reading.

  35. I don’t wish to be rude to anyone, but I sometimes think very rude thoughts about certain people. The closer looks are actually getting quite irritating, and I’d personally appreciate them finishing. I would also find it better if everyone posted under their real name, and better still if we didn’t have silly joke posts (Gloy Plopwell, Mirian Purdom etc.), and worse still sock puppets – that really is annoying. Now, grow up, everyone, please.

  36. All fair comments – overall, I think on balance the spreadsheet route sounds like the option in future TR perhaps?

  37. No, I disagree- it has a sweeping under the carpet feel to it. Besides, if I do a spreadsheet that would take me even longer, so some on here will be getting their own way luckily for them- no more closer looks from now on to prevent arguments,

  38. Thanks, TR. They were quite interesting at first, but you just overdid them a bit, and for some reason they were all Lib-Con contests, which seem to be of some fascination for you. Living as I do in Richmond, I find them more boring than most!

  39. The thing is, I always used to start off discussions by making some point that I thought was interesting- Then I came across all these old results and I naturally thought they would provoke a bit of debate among people on here, and it has clearly worked- It is a real shame that so many posters can’t stand them, I thought they’d be interesting for people to look at.

  40. Maybe Gloy and Miriam are real and its JJB who is the figment of their imagination. :p

    I think the closer looks appeal to autistic mind rather more than those without that particular blessing, but find interest in other posts by The Results, so would also prefer he stays but focuses more on analysis than posting results without any further comment.

  41. Intresting Gloy posts all round the internet and even has a facebook page. Either it is a VERY extended joke, or there really is a oddly named yellow nutter lurking somewhere.

  42. ”I think the closer looks appeal to autistic mind rather more than those without that particular blessing, but find interest in other posts by The Results, so would also prefer he stays but focuses more on analysis than posting results without any further comment.”

    Well although I have Asperger’s Syndrome I suppose that the interest I have to do with elections would be there in any case. It is however nice to know a few people on here want me to continue posting.

  43. I wouldn’t suggest for a moment that you stop posting. Your posts are often of value.
    To answer Joe, I can definitely confirm that Joe James B exists, since I have met him before now, and often seen him around in my area. He has also stood as a candidate several times, I think mainly in Teddington ward which is just about the safest LD ward in the borough (possibly the only genuinely safe one now), without success. And, as I have stated elsewhere, I have known his mother Jenny for many years, especially since 1981 when she was Labour candidate in a council by-election for Ham & Petersham ward, a ward where Labour still had a large vote in those days. The election took place on the very day the SDP was formed, and poor Jenny got smashed & we’ve never recovered. Not her fault, she did her bit very well.

  44. Thanks, Barnaby. I just wasn’t sure if the negativity I’ve received over some of the past results I’ve posted of late was because they had made quite a few people angry.

  45. The closer look posts don’t offend me although it is sometimes old ground,
    so I wouldn’t worry about it
    but keep it to 2 or 3 posts only at a time
    otherwise people lose latest comments.

    The Liberals has been moving into Ham and Petersham in stages – there was a by-election in 1976.
    My dear mother bravely stood there in 1981/2
    at difficult times for Labour.

  46. Thanks, JJB. I want to make it clear that my intentions are to have serious discussions with like-minded posters on here, nothing more, nothing less.

  47. Well I get a bit battered because although there are quite a few Tories/right here
    most of them are disillusioned with the party – but for very different reasons – and I have to defend the Government on my own
    but so be it – I suppose nobody here is likely to chaneg their views on anything much
    but it;’s still an interesting site for information
    and the County Council results with Andy’s spreadsheets were excellent.

  48. You shouldn’t have to defend the government though Joe. Most contributors say what their political preferences are, which is fair enough, but if everyone stuck to the comments policy there would be no need for anyone to defend the policies of the Labour, Conservative or indeed any other mainstream parties.

  49. I guess with this discussion, I really should check – is everyone ok with me when I post up local election results? I like to think it’s in a different category to TR’s stuff: they’re the latest local election results for whatever constituency I’m posting in, and since it’s results from this electoral cycle I like to think they’re relevant to predictions in the general.

  50. That is an entirely different thing as it is much more relevant to discussions about future trends and more to the point, unlike old parliamentary election results, this information is rarely available elsewhere so this is a valuable service.

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