Yorkshire & the Humber European

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Jane Collins (UKIP) 403630 31.1% (+13.7%)
2. Linda McAvan (Labour) 380189 29.3% (+10.6%)
3. Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) 248945 19.2% (-5.3%)
4. Amjad Bashir (UKIP) (201815)
5. Richard Corbett (Labour) (190095)
6. Mike Hookem (UKIP) (134543)
. (Green) 102282 7.9% (-0.6%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 81108 6.3% (-6.9%)
. (Independence from Europe) 24297 1.9% (n/a)
. (BNP) 20138 1.6% (-8.2%)
. (Yorkshire First) 19017 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 13288 1% (-1.5%)
. (No2EU) 3807 0.3% (-1%)
Current sitting MEPs
Jane Collins (UKIP) Born 1962. Former UKIP party organiser. Contested Scunthorpe 2010, Barnsley Central 2011 by-election, Rotherham 2012 by-election. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2014
Linda McAvan (Labour) Born 1962, Bradford. Educated at Heriot-Watt University. Former local government worker. MEP for South Yorkshire 1998-1999. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) Born 1945, Newcastle. Educated at the Royal Grammar School and Law Society College of Law. Solicitor. Former Northumberland county councillor. MP for Leeds North East 1987-1997. Government whip 1990-1995. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Amjad Bashir (UKIP) Born in Pakistan. Chairman of a restaurant group. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2014
Richard Corbett (Labour) Born 1955, Southport. Educated at Farnborough Road School and Oxford University. Former civil servant and policy advisor. MEP for Merseyside West 1996-1999. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside 1999-2009 and since 2014
Mike Hookem (UKIP) Former serviceman, carpenter and small businessman. Contested Hull East 2010. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Edward McMillan-Scott (Conservative) 299802 24.5% (-0.2%)
2. Linda McAvan (Labour) 230009 18.8% (-7.5%)
3. Godfrey Bloom (UKIP) 213750 17.4% (+2.9%)
4. Diana Wallis (Liberal Democrat) 161552 13.2% (-2.4%)
5. Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) (149901)
6. Andrew Brons (BNP) 120139 9.8% (+1.8%)
. (Green) 104456 8.5% (+2.8%)
. (English Democrats) 31287 2.6% (+1%)
. (Socialist Labour) 19380 1.6% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 16742 1.4% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 15614 1.3% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 7181 0.6% (+0.6%)
. (Libertas) 6268 0.5% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
Edward McMillan-Scott (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949, Cambridge. Former public affairs consultant. MEP for York 1984-1994, MEP for North Yorkshire 1994-1999 and for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999. Leader of the Conservative MEPs from 1997 to 2001. Left the Conservative party after standing against the ECR`s candidate for Vice-President of the European Parliament, he subsequently joined the Liberal Democrats in 2010.
Linda McAvan (Labour) Born 1962, Bradford. Educated at Heriot-Watt University. Former local government worker. MEP for South Yorkshire 1998-1999, for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Godfrey Bloom (UKIP) Born 1949, London. Former head of research for an investment company. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 2004. An outspoken figure, he was criticised after his election for saying that maternity rights have damaged womenโ€™s employment prospects.
Rebecca Taylor (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975, Todmorden. Educated at Leeds University. Contested Rotherham 2010. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2012, succeeding Diana Wallis upon her retirement.
Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) Born 1945, Newcastle. Educated at the Royal Grammar School and Law Society College of Law. Solicitor. Former Northumberland county councillor. MP for Leeds North East 1987-1997. Government whip 1990-1995. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Andrew Brons (Independent) Born 1947, Hackney. Retired lecturer. Former member of the National Socialist Movement and National Front. Contested Harrogate F1974, O1974, Birmingham Stechford by-election 1977, Bradford North 1979 and Leeds East 1983, all for the National Front, Keighley 2010 for the BNP. Notional leader of the National Front from 1980-1984 after the expulsion of John Tyndall. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2009. Unsuccessfully challenged for the leadership of the BNP in 2011. Resigned from the BNP 2012
Comments - 135 Responses on “Europe Yorkshire”
  1. Very close 3 way battle for top spot between Conservative, Labour and UK Independence. Most likely they will get 2 seats each. If I had to guess at this stage I would say the Conservatives will be 3rd here, so their 2nd seat will be most vulnerable to the possibility of the Libdems clinging on.

  2. Labour to top the poll.

    Most likely outcome Labour, Tories and Ukip 2 seats each though it is possible but unlikely Labour could pick up a third seat from the Tories.

  3. Linda McAvan is reselected to top Labour list.

    The other candidates will be chosen among:

    Richard Corbett (former MEP)
    Darren Hughes (Rotherham Cllr)
    Asghar Khan (Leeds Cllr)
    Helen Mirfin-Boukouris (Sheffield Cllr)
    Tracey Simpson-Lang (York Cllr)
    Eleanor Tunnicliffe (former Richmond Park candidate)

    Second spot will go the highest polling candidate in the selection and then gender zipped list afterwards.

  4. Darren Hughes was elected as a Conservative in 2008 I think, and then defected to Labour a couple of years later.

    Tracey Simpson-Laing stood in East Yorkshire in 2001.

  5. Kirkhope reselected by Tories. So he will get top spot and he’s guaranteed to go back to Bruxelles next year.

    The other shortlisted candidates to be ranked by members:

    Caroline Abbott (2010 Chesterfield candidate)
    Fleur Butler (Richmondshire Cllr)
    Spencer Pitfield h ttp://www.spencerpitfield.com/
    Karl Poulson (2005 Keighley and 2001 Tynemouth candidate)
    John Proctor (Leeds Cllr)
    Alex Story (2010 Wakefield candidate)

    The winner of this ballot will get number 2 spot which should be a winnable position.

  6. The second Tory seat will be a tough hold. The BNP will lose theirs, and the Lib Dem seat is also likely to go. Labour and UKIP are both bound to pick up second seats, so the final seat will be between Labour and the Conservatives, with the Lib Dems and Greens both having an outside chance

  7. Thanks Andrea for that information – Carolyn Abbott and Fleur Butler have both stood in previous Euro elections, and Carolyn also stood in Sheffield Heeley in 2001 and Barnsley E in 2005.

    Spencer Pitfield stood in Sheffield Hallam in 2005 and Penistone & Stocksbridge in 2010.

    John Proctor stood in Pudsey in 2001.

  8. Think War of Dreams assessment is pretty accurate – though I’d be less certain that Labour will top the poll rather than UKIP.

    The difficulty with predicting UKIP’s vote share in next year’s Euros is that their poll numbers may not grow like their national polling (Westminster) has done – but nobody knows where their ceiling is, if there is such a thing.

  9. The vote percentages from 2009 listed at the top are completely incorrect. Actual percentages, with changes from 2004, were as follows:

    Conservative 24.5% (-0.2)
    Labour 18.8% (-7.5)
    UKIP 17.4% (+2.9)
    Libdem 13.2% (-2.4)
    BNP 9.8% (+1.8)
    Greens 8.5% (+2.8)
    English Dems 2.6% (+1.0)
    Others 5.4%

  10. UKIP will top the poll here easily.

    3 UKIP, 2 LAB, 1 CON

    Brons is toast and his new party will be competing with the BNP for votes anyway.

  11. I think labour having the one is perhaps just as likely.

    We cant rule out 2 2 2 quite yet either. Although I agree its not likely. You cant quite rule out the Lib Dems picking up a seat on about 11-12% or so. Also not terribly likely. Seeing Macmillan-Scott lose will be funny.

    One thing is certain, no more facists.

  12. Conservative list

    1. Timothy Kirkhope MEP
    2. Alex Story
    3. John Procter
    4. Carolyn Abbott
    5. Michael Naughton
    6. ??

  13. Labour List

    1 Linda McAvan MEP
    2 Richard Corbett
    3 Eleonor Tnnicliffe
    4 Asghar Khan
    5 Helen Mirfin Boukouris
    6 Darren Hughes

  14. UKIP candidates:

    Godfrey Bloom – MEP since 2004
    Jane Collins – Stood Beverley & Holderness 2010, Barnsley C byelection 2011, Rotherham byelection 2012
    Jason Smith – Stood Bradford W 2010, Chair of Bradford UKIP.
    Amjad Bashir – Entrepreneur and party donor
    Mike Hookem
    Gary Shores – Stood Hull W & Hessle 2010 for the Conservatives – Stood Hull E 2010, Chair of Yorks & Humber UKIP

  15. The UKIP Shortlist is pretty expected. Collins would make a good addition to Bloom. I can see Bashir taking the crucial third spot. Whoever out of Labour and UKIP wins a third seat will probably take the most seats nationwide.

    Collins will probably be looking to parliament in 2015 and there are some strong UKIP areas up this way (Humberside). There will probably be many UKIP councillors elected in the Humberside area next year therefore they should have a good base for a few 2015 wins there going into the election.

  16. I can see 2 seats potentially for UKIP in London, but I agree about Scotland; a seat for them would be a miracle!

    Mind you Labour will probably only get 2 or 3 seats in London and will have far less seats than that than UKIP in the South of England.

  17. UKIP will struggle to get the same vote in London they got in 2009.

    Four years of rapid demographic change will have worked against them, especially in the WWC enclaves which have diminished very fast (look at the swing against Boris in places like New Addington in 2012).

  18. Local election on the same day could see an increase of BME (especially Asian) turnout in London compared to 2009 as they have to go out to vote for their Cllrs.

  19. Yes very true, and BME % of the electorate will be significantly higher than in 2009 so it will be a double whammy effect.

  20. LAB 35.9 (2)
    UKIP 22.6 (2)
    CON 20.7 (1)
    GRN 10.8 (1)
    LD 9.9 (0)

  21. Those figures would result in 3 Labour seats and no Green seat. That leaves 0.1% for all other parties including the BNP and English Democrats who between them are likely to at least get a few percent. I’ve no idea why you expect the Green party to do better this time than last other than wishful thinking

  22. Yeah sorry Pete I got the seat method a bit wrong as Andrea showed me. Adjusting for OTH, my prediction changes to:
    LAB 32.0 (3)
    UKIP 20.1 (2)
    CON 18.4 (1)
    OTH 11.1 (N/A)
    GRN 9.6 (0)
    LD 8.8 (0)
    To be honest, it all depends on how the Others affect each party’s vote share because if the Greens can stand still or even advance a fraction of a percent, they could take UKIP’s 2nd seat should something similar to my above estimate occur.

  23. Wait the Greens didn’t score 10.2% did they- as Neil verified. I take back my claim.

  24. On a serious point, aren’t windmills and rising energy prices going to damage the Green vote in the north and midlands?

    Fracking might help them a bit in the south.

    But overall I’m inclined to agree with Pete that their UK vote share will probably fall compared with 2009. You have to remember they got a lot of protest votes when Labour were in government that will be likely to go back to Labour now.

  25. Perhaps more here than most places because people are less likely to spot bias in figures like the Sun’s attempt to make green legislation add the most onto energy bills visually when mathematically it was the smallest and only rose to 2nd smallest out of a number of factors by 2020. I guess we’ll have to wait and see ๐Ÿ™‚

  26. I am generally an enthusiast for the potential of renewables and visually windmills do not bother me. But it’s quite clear that I am in a small minority even in London.

  27. I would prefer a Passivhaus model with ground source heat pumps + solar thermal for heating and solar PV for electricity. That way nearly the entire domestic sector could be sustained on renewables. It would all depend on storage systems and appliance efficiency as to how much more energy we wohld need renewables like wind etc to generate. But that’s another debate, one nobody is talking about except the Greens- a major reason I support themobviously ๐Ÿ˜€

  28. Ukip will outpoll the Tories though they will need to exceed the Tory vote by at least 50% to get 3 seats which I think is unlikely.

    Ukip will gain votes from the Bnp and the English democrats who got 9.8% and 2.6% respectively. Most national opinion polls with a Yorkshire breakdown show Ukip close to the Tories. These regional breakdowns aren’t individually statistically reliable but if you look at number of them you can get a reliable pattern and Ukip will do better in European election than in a national opinion poll when people are asked how they will vote in a GE.

    Labour will gain votes from Greens and Lib Dems. I would expect a higher rate of defection from the LDs in the north so I cant see LDs holding onto their seat. Labour could gain as many defections from other parties as Ukip but should pick up more votes because of differential turnout: being in opoosition and local elections (though where are they being held in Yorkshire?)

    I think Lab 3: Ukip 2: Cons 1 or 2:2:2 are possible. I don;’t see any other parties winning seats but the extent to which Greens and LDs defect to Labour will determine whether Labour wins 3 and Conservatives 1 or 2 each.

    The controversy about Galloway standing for the London mayor should damage Respect’s ability to take votes away from Labour.

  29. There are local elections in the Met boroughs plus Hull and NE Lincolnshire which covers a majority of the electorate of the region but of course excludes the most Tory areas in North Yorkshire and the East Riding. In 2009 the opposite occurred when there were local elections only in the North Yorkshire CC area. It is possible however to overstate the effect of this. It may make a small difference at the margins, but in somewhere like Hull, local election turnout is always notoriously low anyway so you can still expect turnout to be much lower there than in eg. Richmondshire, regardless of there being local elections on the same day

  30. Sorry about the 2 UKIP MEPs in London. I have looked at the maths and I can’t see it working. Their vote there should be well concentrated for the council elections though. 12-15% in the locals in London could be as much as 35-40% in Havering and Redbridge. 50-75 UKIP councillors in London could be elected assuming that they contest the wards with potential (they missed out a few in Lincolnshire this year that would have probably returned UKIP councillors).

    Could they be the largest party in Havering?

  31. 111, this is the second time I’ve seen you say that UKIP will do very well in Redbridge. Havering’s one thing, and I agree that I fully expect UKIP to do well there (though I hardly see them becoming the largest party), but why Redbridge? I hardly see Ilford as a nexus of UKIP support, not for the least reason that there have been huge demographic changes in alot of it these past few years. Sure, similar changes in other areas have provoked the original residents to turn to more extreme parties, but that effect seems to have been much less pronounced in Redbridge than elsewhere.

  32. Van Fleet, I happen to live in that particular area, and there is a deep and widening fracture in the local Tories. This caused 3 Tory Councillors to defect to UKIP simultaneously joining a UKIP Cllr elected in a recent by-election (without much boost from the locals etc mind) and another 3 are supposedly about to defect before the elections next year. The rift is so big as to mean half of all Tory Cllrs could defect especially as many are old, Eurosceptic and far to the right of the party. With UKIP polling even 25% and many potential Tory seats being taken by independents/resident associations, they could achieve control of the council; this really makes me shudder at the thought being under UKIP rule whether minority or otherwise.

  33. Considering I was talking about Redbridge, you really should have clarified that you’re now talking about Havering.

    Like I said, I don’t doubt the potential for UKIP to do well. Indeed, as others have said, Havering is one of the best prospects in London. And the trouble in the local Tories helps them no end. But it does take an awful lot to jump from minor party to first place in one go. I still doubt they’ll become the largest party.

  34. ‘The rift is so big as to mean half of all Tory Cllrs could defect especially as many are old, Eurosceptic and far to the right of the party.’

    If half do defect and alot stand for re-election, that is a big deal. But it’s still ‘if’ right now.

  35. Van Fleet: I don’t think UKIP will poll highly in Redbridge as a whole, but they should be hoping to win some of the wards in the North East of the borough.

    Barking and Dagenham is another good shot for them, but demographic change does work against them there.

    UKIP is at work in Havering though, strong local party (for a UKIP branch).

  36. Barking and Dagenham doesn’t have enough white residents now for UKIP or the BNP to do all that well. The speed of white flight there in the past 5 years is simply astonishing.

    UKIP have good potential in some of the more downmarket wards of Bexley and also Eltham.

    In Bromley they will do very well in the Cray Valley wards and Mottingham; the rest of the borough is too posh, or too multi-ethnic.

  37. I agree that UKIP would be better off in Bexley than Barking and Dagenham, but I wouldn’t write them off in some wards there.

  38. Every single ward in B&D is now rock solid safe for Labour….that was even the case in 2010 and it is still more so now.

    The closure of what’s left of the Ford works in the near future will finish off most of what’s left of the local WWC population.

  39. I wouldn’t be so sure. It will all depend on turnout though, which should be in the mid-range. The question is how many ethnic minority Labour voters will come out to vote? My instinct in some wards (e.g. Beconstree and Mayesbrook) is not quite enough.

    Besides Labour needs some opposition there in the interest of scrutiny!

  40. “The question is how many ethnic minority Labour voters will come out to vote?”

    They don’t have to “come out to vote” – have you not heard of postal votes?

  41. ‘Besides Labour needs some opposition there in the interest of scrutiny!’

    Yes, but that doesn’t mean ethnic minority voters are going to vote UKIP just because of that. They’d be more likely to vote for a variety of other parties.

  42. Agreed. There are plenty of one party states these days, unfortunately, on both sides.

  43. Not everyone in B+D is ethnic minority. Also, the Labour turnout across London was far lower in 2006 than 2010. The Labour turnout will be higher than 2006 but lower than 2010 which does open the door for UKIP in the same wards that the BNP carried easily In 2006.

    I never stated that ethnic minority voters would vote UKIP in the interest of scrutiny. That was just my personal opinion.

  44. Following the Bongo Bongo Land comments, UKIP’s chance of getting ethnic minority voters is practically zero.

  45. I would have thought that UKIP would have some appeal to the posh of Bromley more than to the posh of somewhere like Kensington?

  46. The posh of Bromley aren’t as posh as the posh of Kensington though so its not really a like for like comparison.

    Though, yes, one would think UKIP would do better in Bromley than Kensington.

  47. I get the impression that UKIP do okay with posh people over a certain age but very badly with younger people in that category.

  48. What would you say is that ‘certain age’ ?

  49. Lib Dem candidates:

    1. Edward McMillan-Scott – MEP since 1984
    2. James Monaghan – Stood Morley & Outwood 2010, ex Leeds cllr
    3. Joe Otten – Sheffield cllr
    4. Chris Foote-Wood – stood Bishop Auckland 2005, Middlesbrough 2010, Durham PCC elections 2012
    5. Jacqueline Bell – Stood Stockton S 2010

  50. Does McMillan-Scott have any chance of keeping his seat?

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