Yorkshire & the Humber European

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Jane Collins (UKIP) 403630 31.1% (+13.7%)
2. Linda McAvan (Labour) 380189 29.3% (+10.6%)
3. Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) 248945 19.2% (-5.3%)
4. Amjad Bashir (UKIP) (201815)
5. Richard Corbett (Labour) (190095)
6. Mike Hookem (UKIP) (134543)
. (Green) 102282 7.9% (-0.6%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 81108 6.3% (-6.9%)
. (Independence from Europe) 24297 1.9% (n/a)
. (BNP) 20138 1.6% (-8.2%)
. (Yorkshire First) 19017 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 13288 1% (-1.5%)
. (No2EU) 3807 0.3% (-1%)
Current sitting MEPs
Jane Collins (UKIP) Born 1962. Former UKIP party organiser. Contested Scunthorpe 2010, Barnsley Central 2011 by-election, Rotherham 2012 by-election. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2014
Linda McAvan (Labour) Born 1962, Bradford. Educated at Heriot-Watt University. Former local government worker. MEP for South Yorkshire 1998-1999. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) Born 1945, Newcastle. Educated at the Royal Grammar School and Law Society College of Law. Solicitor. Former Northumberland county councillor. MP for Leeds North East 1987-1997. Government whip 1990-1995. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Amjad Bashir (UKIP) Born in Pakistan. Chairman of a restaurant group. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2014
Richard Corbett (Labour) Born 1955, Southport. Educated at Farnborough Road School and Oxford University. Former civil servant and policy advisor. MEP for Merseyside West 1996-1999. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside 1999-2009 and since 2014
Mike Hookem (UKIP) Former serviceman, carpenter and small businessman. Contested Hull East 2010. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Edward McMillan-Scott (Conservative) 299802 24.5% (-0.2%)
2. Linda McAvan (Labour) 230009 18.8% (-7.5%)
3. Godfrey Bloom (UKIP) 213750 17.4% (+2.9%)
4. Diana Wallis (Liberal Democrat) 161552 13.2% (-2.4%)
5. Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) (149901)
6. Andrew Brons (BNP) 120139 9.8% (+1.8%)
. (Green) 104456 8.5% (+2.8%)
. (English Democrats) 31287 2.6% (+1%)
. (Socialist Labour) 19380 1.6% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 16742 1.4% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 15614 1.3% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 7181 0.6% (+0.6%)
. (Libertas) 6268 0.5% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
Edward McMillan-Scott (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949, Cambridge. Former public affairs consultant. MEP for York 1984-1994, MEP for North Yorkshire 1994-1999 and for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999. Leader of the Conservative MEPs from 1997 to 2001. Left the Conservative party after standing against the ECR`s candidate for Vice-President of the European Parliament, he subsequently joined the Liberal Democrats in 2010.
Linda McAvan (Labour) Born 1962, Bradford. Educated at Heriot-Watt University. Former local government worker. MEP for South Yorkshire 1998-1999, for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Godfrey Bloom (UKIP) Born 1949, London. Former head of research for an investment company. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 2004. An outspoken figure, he was criticised after his election for saying that maternity rights have damaged women’s employment prospects.
Rebecca Taylor (Liberal Democrat) Born 1975, Todmorden. Educated at Leeds University. Contested Rotherham 2010. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2012, succeeding Diana Wallis upon her retirement.
Timothy Kirkhope (Conservative) Born 1945, Newcastle. Educated at the Royal Grammar School and Law Society College of Law. Solicitor. Former Northumberland county councillor. MP for Leeds North East 1987-1997. Government whip 1990-1995. MEP for Yorkshire and Humberside since 1999.
Andrew Brons (Independent) Born 1947, Hackney. Retired lecturer. Former member of the National Socialist Movement and National Front. Contested Harrogate F1974, O1974, Birmingham Stechford by-election 1977, Bradford North 1979 and Leeds East 1983, all for the National Front, Keighley 2010 for the BNP. Notional leader of the National Front from 1980-1984 after the expulsion of John Tyndall. MEP for Yorkshire and the Humber since 2009. Unsuccessfully challenged for the leadership of the BNP in 2011. Resigned from the BNP 2012
Comments - 135 Responses on “Europe Yorkshire”
  1. Sorry that should include:

    h ttp://order-order.com/2015/01/25/amjad-bashir-accused-of-lying-over-respect-party-links-told-tories-he-has-never-had-anything-to-do-with-them-respect-application-form-and-5-witnesses-prove-he-is-lying-also-claimed-he-was/

  2. Here is my latest regional boundary plan for Yorkshire and The Humber I have included boundary descriptions this time:

    1.Wakefield (Creagh, majority cut to just over 1,000. current seat + Wakefield South)
    2.Morley and Outwood (Jenkyns. current seat)
    3.Hemsworth (Trickett. current seat + St Helens, Royston (from Barnsley))
    4.Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford (Cooper. current seat)
    5.Elmet and Rothwell (Shelbrooke. current seat)
    6.Leeds Central (Benn. current seat + Chapel Allerton, -Burmantofts and Richmond Hill)
    7.Leeds East (Burgon. current seat + Burmantofts and Richmond Hill)
    8.Leeds North (Hamilton. Roundhay, Alwoodley, Moortown, Headingly, Weetwood)
    9.Leeds West (Reeves. current seat + Pudsey)
    10.Otley and Baildon (Andrew, notional Tory majority ~6,750 though his position is probably better than this due to a depressed Tory vote in the two wards coming from Leeds NW. Adel and Wharfedale, Otley and Yeadon, Horsforth, Guisley and Rawdon, Baildon)
    11.Bradford East (Hussain, Lib Dems could actually win this back if they get Tory tacticals in Calverley. current seat + Calverley and Farsley, -Little Horton)
    12.Bradford South (Cummins. current seat + Little Horton)
    13.Bradford West and Shipley (Shah. current Bradford West + Shipley, Windhill and Wrose, – Thornton and Allerton)
    14.Keighley (Hopkins, majority ~5,500. current seat + Wharfedale)
    15.Bingley and Calder (Davies, majority ~3,100. Bingley, Bingley Rural, Thornton and Allerton, Illingworth and Mixenden, Luddenfoot, Calder, Todmordon)
    16.Halifax (Notionally Tory with majority ~2,750. current seat + Greetland and Stainland, Ryburn, -Illingworth and Mixenden)
    17.Brighouse and Spenborough (Whittaker, majority ~6,000. Elland, Rastrick, Brighouse, Hipperholme and Lightcliffe, Liversedge and Gomersal, Cleckheaton, Birstall and Birkenshaw)
    18.Dewsbury and Batley (Sheriff. Dewsbury(E,S,W), Batley (E,W), Heckmondwike)
    19.Huddersfield West (McCartney, majority ~650. current Colne Valley + Greenhead, -Holme Valley South)
    20.Huddersfield East (Also notionally Tory with majority ~650(!) current Huddersfield + Mirfield, Kirkburton, -Greenhead)
    21.Penistone and Denby Dale (Smith, majority ~650 (again). Denby Dale, Holme Valley South, Penistone (E,W), Dodworth, Darton (E,W), Worsbrough)
    22.Barnsley Central (Jarvis or Dugher. Old Town, Central, Kingstone, Monk Bretton, Rockingham, Hoyland, Milton, Wombwell, Stairfoot, Cudworth)
    23.Sheffield Hallam (Clegg who will retire. Probably very narrowly notionally Lib Dem depending on which part of Crookes is included. Current seat + Stocksbridge and Upper Don, -part of Crookes (shared with Central))
    24.Sheffied Central (Blomfield. Current seat + Hillsborough, part of Crookes (shared with Hallam), – Manor Castle)
    25.Sheffield Brightside (Furniss. East Ecclesfield, West Ecclesfield, Southey, Firth Park, Shire Green and Brightside, part of Burngreave (shared with Attercliffe))
    26.Sheffield Attercliffe (Betts. Current seat + Manor Castle, part of Burngreave (shared with Brightside), – Birley)
    27.Sheffield Heeley (Haigh. Current seat + Birley)
    28.Rotherham North (Healey. Hoober, Rawmarsh, Silverwood Swinton, Wath, Keppel, Wingfield, Rotherham West)
    29.Rotherham South (Champion. Brinsworth and Catcliffe, Boston Castle, Rotherham East, Valley, Sitwell, Rother Vale, Holderness, Wales)
    30.Doncaster South and Maltby (Barron. Anston and Woodsetts, Dinnington, Maltby, Hellaby, Wickersley, Tickhill and Wadworth, Rossington and Bawtry, Balby South)
    31.Doncaster North East (Miliband or Flint. Norton and Askern, Stainforth and Barnby Dun, Thorne and Moorends, Edenthorpe and Kirk Sandall, Armthorpe, Hatfield)
    32.Doncaster Central (Winterton. Bessacarr, Hexthorpe and Balby North, Town, Wheatley Hills and Intake, Bentley, Roman Ridge, Aldwick le Street and Carcroft)
    33.Doncaster West and Goldthorpe (Dugher (if he doesn’t try for Barnsley Central) or Flint (if Miliband doesn’t retire). Spotbrough, Mexborough, Conisbrough, Edlington and Warmsworth, Dearne (N,S), Darfield, North East)
    34.Grimsby South and Cleethorpes (Nationally Tory seat majority ~2,000. Park, Heneage, Scartho, South, Sidney Sussex, Croft Baker, Haverstoe, Humberston and New Waltham, Waltham)
    35.Grimsby North and Brigg (Vickers majority ~5,400. Wolds, Immingham, Barton, Ferry, Freshney, Yarborough, West Marsh, East Marsh, Brigg and Wolds, Broughton and Appleby)
    36.Scunthorpe (Notionally Tory by ~750 votes. current seat + Burringham and Gunness, Burton upon Stather and Winterton, Axholme South)
    37.Goole and Howdenshire (Percy or Davies though Davies may retire, if percy loses the nomination he could probably run in notionally Tory Scunthorpe (albeit narrowly). Notional majority ~17,000 (on the high side as as electoral calculus estimates the Tories beat Labour in Howdenshire ward 7,788 votes to 76 lol). South Hunsley, Dale, Howdenshire, Howden, Goole (N,S), Snaith, Axholme (N,C), Cottingham N)
    38.Bridlington (Knight. Bridlington (N,C,S), East Wolds and Coastal, Holderness (N, Mid, SE))
    39.Beverley (Stuart. Driffield and Rural, Pocklington Provincial, Wolds Weighton, Beverley Rural, St Mary’s, Minster and Woodmansey)
    40.Kingston-upon-Hull North (D.Johnson. Bransholme (E,W), Beverley, Kings Park, Orchard Park and Kingswood, University, Sutton, Holderness, Ings)
    41.Kingston-upon-Hull Central (Turner. Drypool, Myton, St Andrew’s, Avenue, Newland, Marfleet, Southcoates (E,W), Longhill, Holderness SW)
    42.Kingston-upon-Hull West and Haltemprice (A. Johnson majority ~3,300 though the Tories would in reality have been a bit closer as electoral calculus estimate the Tories beat Labour in Howdenshire ward 7,788 votes to 76 (lol) which skews the other ward results more Labour. Pickering, Newington, Boothferry, Derringham, Bricknell, Hessle, Tranby, Willerby and Kirk Ella, Cottingham S)
    43.Selby and Ainsty (Adams. current seat)
    44.York Central (Maskell. current seat)
    45.York Outer (Sturdy. current seat)
    46.Harrogate and Knaresborough (Jones. current seat)
    47.Skipton and Ripon (Smith. current seat)
    48.Richmond (Sunak current seat)
    49.Thirsk and Malton (Hollinrake. current seat + Derwent Valley – Filey)
    50.Scarborough and Whitby (Goodwill, majority decreases to ~5,500. current seat +Filey, -, Derwent Valley)

  3. Must admit things aren’t that great for the Tories in Yorkshire from what I can tell, Leeds especially they’re being shafted, I was convinced they’d get at least one semi safe seat in Northern Leeds but I believe the new Leeds NW would still primarily be a Lab Lib Dem fight.

  4. Yep just worked the notionals for the new Leeds NW, notionally Lab three way marginal

    Lib Dem=14,514

  5. Pretty awful I’d say.

    The new Pudsey seat stiches up Stuart Andrew something rotten, could see Reeves being the Labour candidate for that one, purging not withstanding, and securing a five figure majority.

    Some of the boundaries make little sense, Normanton, Outwood & Castleford is a bit of a sprawling seat, Elmet & Rothwell hasn’t changed at all…

    The addition of Farnley & Wortley into Leeds Central makes little sense.

    I’d have thought re-drawing the local wards before the parliamentary ones would have made more sense, but hey ho…

  6. Adding Headingley to Leeds NE is a weird one too, its essentially an exclave detached from the rest of the seat.

    I was under he impression the BC were going to split wards to avoid silly seats, but alas.

  7. Hopefully things change drastically at the consultation stage

  8. I would have thought a Morley and Rothwell seat would work OK with Morley North, Morley South, Ardsley & Robin Hood, Rothwell and Garforth & Swillington, or Middleton Park replacing the latter.

    I don’t have a problem with Burmantofts going to East Leeds, the Leeds a as changes aren’t the worst that someone could come up with.

  9. * NW not a as

    Predictive typing

  10. Some of the proposed names are weird. Sheffield Hallam and Stocksbridge is ugly (I’d have called it Sheffield Rural or Sheffield West, or just kept it as Hallam), as is Sheffield Central and West – you could make a good case for calling it Sheffield Universities given the demographics of the seat and its two biggest employers.

  11. Sheffield Rural sounds worse.

    I agree in that I dislike pure N, E, SW seat names too though as in Glasgow as it loses their identity when you remove place names. They all just sound like a stop on a train.

  12. I agree

    They’ve been careful to keep Morley as a seat name rather than a Leeds South or something including it

    An independence referendum for Morley from the rest of the world would be a landslide

  13. No they’ve thankfully kept place names in those cities.

  14. Yes, it’d be unthinkable (and unlawful in a couple of cases) in England. From memory you have to retain Plymouth Devonport in a name as a Royal dockyard. Likewise City of Westminster and I think Canterbury are retained due to convention or some ancient canon law I seem to recall Mogg reciting.

    The separate Scottish BC didn’t seem to care about historic names at all.

  15. @rivers but remember in that hypothetical Leeds North West the Lib Dems have an awful lot of the Tory vote squeezed so Labour’s position is a lot less rosy than that. In fact if Leeds North West was fought on these boundaries and everyone voted for their first preference the Tories would have won.

  16. Pepps
    Possibly however the notionals say the Tories would romp home in the Horsforth ward but at a local level its fairly reliably Lib Dem, obviously local Libs are opting primarily for the Tories in Pudsey cos they’re not competative there but in Leeds NW though?

    Consequently I think you’d have the Tories and Libs battling it out to be the main challengers thus seeing Lab home against split opposition.

  17. Logically other than Headingley ward the old Leeds NW boundaries ought to have voted sufficiently Tory.

    The Adel ward is as Tory as you’d expect to find anywhere in Leeds pretty much, Otley & Yeadon slightly less so but you’d expect them to be in the lead.

    Weetwood a bit of a mix I’d guess.

  18. Adel is indeed very safe Tory, but Otley is solid for the Lib Dems with Labour in second and the Tories a poor third (definite strategic voting in play there) while Weetwood is reliably Lib Dem with Labour a solid second and again the Tories a poor third.

  19. Luke, I think the reason Morley & Rothwell won’t return is that Elmet & Rothwell is in quota as it is so it will be retained.

  20. Talking in general, it looks like about a third of Labour’s notional 204 seats would be vulnerable to a swing of 8%.

  21. An 8% swing against Labour is unlikely though given they’re already at the lower end of their support range

  22. 3 seats unchanged in Yorkshire & The Humber:

    Beverley & Holderness
    East Yorkshire
    Elmet and Rothwell

  23. Paul – whilst Elmet & Rothwell is within quota the design of it is absolutely awful!

    I’d put Wetherby and Boston Spa with Harrogate/Knaresborough (the main bits) and the outlying areas tie up with Ripon.

    Skipton would be moved into something more geographically suitable.

  24. I don’t understand why Beverly and Holderness are one. I realise its up to quota but they are very different places.

  25. The reason names like “Sheffield Hallam and Stocksbridge” emerge is that the areas contained have no real connection or reason to be put in the same seat. It is a particularly poor choice, though, as Stocksbridge was in the historic Hallamshire area, and although the bit of Penistone tacked on never was, nor was Dore, which has been in the Sheffield Hallam seat for years.

    “Sheffield Central and West”, also an unfortunate hourglass shape, would be better as “Sheffield Central” – the seat has long contained bits of the west of the city, and most of western Sheffield wouldn’t be in the new seat. But, basically, these two seats are terribly designed, based on a refusal to split wards which no longer exist!

  26. But the town of Penistone, proper, will be in Colne Valley, it’s Oxspring and a large area of villages to the east of Penistone proposed for this seat.

  27. Betfair will give you 6/4 on Labour winning P&S.

  28. UKIP won’t win 17% in these seats, or just about any seat.

  29. The Lib Dems won’t be that high in Don Valley

  30. @Plopwellian Tory

    Absolutely. They should be favourites in Penistone, whilst if current polls continue Don Valley is hard to call (Caroline Flint is well regarded, which may or may not help her).

  31. Caroline Flint is well regarded indeed

  32. Yorkshire region prediction:

    Brex: 3
    Lab: 1
    LD: 1
    Grn: 1

  33. The Brexit Party have taken Leeds, but only on 29% of the vote, with left-of-centre opposition splitting three ways.

    I think the polls have missed differential turnout between leavers and remainers (turnout is running around ten points higher in pro-EU areas). The Brexit Party will still win, but they will be closer to 30 than 40%.

  34. 28% winning share for Brexit in Sheffield. Green surge due to popular ex lord mayor there.

  35. Britain Elects
    ‏ @britainelects
    3m3 minutes ago

    Yorkshire & Humber

    Brexit: 36.5% – 3 seats
    Labour: 16.3% – 1 seat
    LDem: 15.5% – 1 seat
    Grn: 13.0% – 1 seat
    Con: 7.2% – 0 seats
    UKIP: 4.4% – 0 seats
    York: 3.9% – 0 seats
    ChUK: 2.3% – 0 seats.

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