West Midlands European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Jill Seymour (UKIP) 428010 31.5% (+10.2%)
2. Neena Gill (Labour) 363033 26.7% (+9.7%)
3. Philip Bradbourn (Conservative) 330470 24.3% (-3.8%)
4. James Carver (UKIP) (214005)
5. Sion Simon (Labour) (181517)
6. Anthea McIntyre (Conservative) (165235)
7. Bill Etheridge (UKIP) (142670)
. (Liberal Democrat) 75648 5.6% (-6.4%)
. (Green) 71464 5.3% (-0.9%)
. (Independence from Europe) 27171 2% (n/a)
. (We Demand a Referendum) 23426 1.7% (n/a)
. (BNP) 20643 1.5% (-7.1%)
. (English Democrats) 12832 0.9% (-1.4%)
. (No2EU) 4653 0.3% (-0.7%)
. (Harmony) 1857 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Jill Seymour (UKIP) MEP for West Midlands since 2014
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Neena Gill (Labour) Born 1956, Ludhiana. Educated at Liverpool Polytechnic. Prior to her election was chief executive of a social housing company. MEP for West Midlands 1999-2009 and since 2014
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Philip Bradbourn (Conservative) Born 1951, Tipton. Educated at Tipton Grammar and Worcester College. Contested Wolverhampton South East 1992. Contested County Durham in 1994 European elections. MEP for the West Midlands since 1999. Awarded the OBE in 1994 for public and political service.
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James Carver (UKIP) Runs a family umbrella business. Contested Orpington 1997, London 1999 european election, Cheltenham 2001, Preseli Pembrokeshire 2005. MEP for West Midlands since 2014
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Sion Simon (Labour) Born 1968, Caernarfonshire. Educated at Handsworth Grammar and Oxford University. Former journalist. MP for Birmingham Erdington 2001-2010. Under secretary for further education 2008-2009, Under Secretary for creative industries 2009-2010. Stood down from Parliament to stand as the elected mayor of Birmingham, before the local referendum rejected the creation of the role. MEP for West Midlands since 2014
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Anthea McIntyre (Conservative) Born 1954, Ross on Wye. MEP since 2011, when the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and the United Kingdom received an extra MEP.
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Bill Etheridge (UKIP) Educated at Parkfield High School and Wolverhampton Polytechnic. Carer and former sales manager. Contested West Midlands Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for West Midlands since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Philip Charles Bradbourn (Conservative) 396847 28.1% (+0.7%)
2. Mike Nattrass (UKIP) 300471 21.3% (+3.8%)
3. Michael Cashman (Labour) 240201 17% (-6.4%)
4. Malcolm Harbour (Conservative) (198424)
5. Liz Lynne (Liberal Democrat) 170246 12% (-1.7%)
6. Nikki Sinclaire (UKIP) (150236)
. (BNP) 121967 8.6% (+1.1%)
. (Green) 88244 6.2% (+1.1%)
. (English Democrats) 32455 2.3% (n/a)
. (Christian) 18784 1.3% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 14724 1% (+0.4%)
. (No2EU) 13415 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 8721 0.6% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 6961 0.5% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Philip Charles Bradbourn (Conservative) Born 1951, Tipton. Educated at Tipton Grammar and Worcester College. Contested Wolverhampton South East 1992. Contested County Durham in 1994 European elections. MEP for the West Midlands since 1999. Awarded the OBE in 1994 for public and political service.
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Mike Nattrass (An Independence Party) Born 1945, Leeds. Chartered surveyer. UKIP MEP for the West Midlands Region since 2004. Contested Dudley West by-election 1994 for the New Britain Party. Contested Solihull 1997 for the Referendum party. Contested Sutton Coldfield 2001, Stone 2005, Crewe and Nantwich by-election 2008, South Staffordshire 2010. Deputy leader of UKIP 2002-2006. Resigned from UKIP in September 2013 after failing to be selected for the 2014 European election.
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Michael Cashman (Labour) Born 1950, London. Former actor, best known for playing Colin Russell in Eastenders. MEP for West Midlands since 1999.
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Malcolm Harbour (Conservative) Born 1947, Woking. Educated at Bedford School and Cambridge University. Formerly worked as a engineer, executive and consultant in the motor industry. Contested Birmingham East in 1989 European election. MEP for the West Midlands since 1999.
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Phil Bennion (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954, Tamworth. Educated at Queen Elizabeth Grammar School. Lichfield councillor 1999-2011. Contested Tamworth 2005, Telford 2010. MEP for the West Midlands since 2012, succeeding Liz Lynne
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Nikki Sinclaire (We Demand a Referendum) Born 1968, London. Educated at Kent University. Former UKIP party secretary. Contested Medway 2001, Halesowen and Rowley Regis 2005 for UKIP, Solihull 2010 for Solihull and Meriden Residents Association. MEP for the West Midlands since 2009. She resigned from the EFD group in 2010 and was subsequently expelled from UKIP for refusing to be part of the group.
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Anthea McIntyre (Conservative) Born 1954, Ross on Wye. MEP since 2011, when the Treaty of Lisbon entered into force and the United Kingdom received an extra MEP.


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Comments - 78 Responses on “Europe West Midlands”
  1. Michael Harbour (Con) has announced today he will retire in 2015.
    Cashman (Lab) and Natrass (UKIP) already announced it last year.
    Lynne went away midterm.
    Sinclaire has been expelled by UKIP (so unlikely to be returned if she runs).

    So there will be lots of new faces in this region next year. Or maybe some old faces coming back (Sion Simon has applied for Labour selection)

  2. con
    ukip
    lab

    all with 2 seats each

  3. Labour candidates:

    Claire Edwards (Rugby Cllr)
    Neena Gill (former MEP)
    Olwen Hamer (Stoke Cllr)
    Lynda Waltho (former Stourbridge MP)

    Ansar Ali-Khan (Birmingham Cllr)
    Anthony Ethapemi (former Brent council candidate)
    Sion Simon (former Erdington MP)

    It will be woman-man-woman-man-woman-man-woman. Members’ ballots to be held this summer.

  4. I would guess Neena Gill, Sion Simon and Lynda Waltho would fill the top 3.

  5. I agree about Simon as Khan will be strong in Birmingham but I doubt he will get much support in Worcestershire, Staffordshire, Warwickshire, Shropshire, Somethingelseshire CLPs.

    I am less sure about female race. Edwards was ranked third in 2009 (the top not sitting MEP candidate). I am told that some didn’t regard Gill as an effective MEP. How much is Waltho known outside her former seat?
    I guess the result may depend on who runs the best campaign here.

  6. Will probably be tight between the top three here. Labour will probably be third, but not at all far behind Con and UKIP.

    3rd place vote share likely to be about 22-23%, so Libdems would need to hold on to about 11% of the vote for a seat – can’t see them managing that, so 2 each for Lab, Con and UKIP here.

  7. There are 7 seats now here. So the LibDems could hold the 7th with 2 each for the other 3 regardless of their order.

  8. So the Lib Dems will hold so long as they take at least a third of the vote that the top placed party receives, and also stay ahead of the Greens.

    The second requirement looks likely, the first less certain. UKIP could get close to 30% here, and the Lib Dems might be a way below 10%.

  9. Conservative candidates – Phil Bradbourn and Anthea McIntyre guaranteed of top 2 places:

    Phil Bradbourn MEP – MEP since 1999, stood Wolverhampton SE 1992, Durham 1994 Euros

    Anthea McIntyre MEP – MEP since 2011, stood Redditch 1997, Shrewsbury & Atcham 2001

    Susan Arnold – Lichfield cllr

    Sharon (Sibby) Buckle – Consultant pharmacist for Boots, stood Liverpool Walton 2005

    Michael Burnett – stood Coventry NE 1997, W Mids Euros 2009

    Daniel Dalton – stood W Mid Euros 2009, policy adviser to ECR group

    Ian Jamie – MD of a packaging & containers company

    David Price – Tax consultant

    Daniel Sames – Cherwell cllr

  10. Conservative ranking

    1. Philip Bradbourne MEP
    2. Anthea McIntyre MEP
    3. Daniel Dalton
    4. Michael Burnett
    5. Sibby Buckle
    6. David Price
    7. Dan Sames

  11. Labour list

    1 Neena Gill
    2 Simon Sion
    3 Linda Waltho
    4 Ansar Khan
    5 Olwen Hamer
    6 Tony Ethapemi
    7 Claire Edwards

    A bit surprised by Gill. All accounts I heard were about how useless she was in her previous MEP years

  12. UKIP candidates:

    Jill Seymour – Telford & The Wrekin cllr
    Phil Henrick – Chair UKIP Solihull & Meriden
    Bill Etheridge – Stood W Midlands PCC elections 2012, Dudley N candidate 2015
    James Carver – UKIP South West regional organiser
    Michael Wrench – Stood Wyre Forest 2010, is the candidate there 2015
    Michael Green – Chair of E Staffordshire UKIP
    Lyndon Jones – Ex Chair S Staffordshire Conservative Association

  13. UKIP 28.3 (2)
    LAB 27.7 (2)
    CON 22.0 (2)
    OTH 7.9 (N/A)
    LD 7.8 (1)
    GRN 6.3 (0)

  14. Sorry should be LD (0) as there are only 6 seats.

  15. Has someone hacked into your account WoC? That prediction looks almost plausible

  16. There’re now 7 seats (after Lisbon Treaty). So 2-2-2-1 looks plausible. However, on those figures, it would be 3-2-2

  17. No Pete I’m using the same method as on all other seats- party support and the level of it is very different to the South.

  18. Oh thanks Andrea and would it- I thought you halved the largest number each time and awarded a seat until no more seats are left. If the LDs are on 7.8, that’s greater than the 7.075 UKIP would have after 2 seats and them being the largest party to start off with means the LDs would get a seat surely? Please correct me where I’ve gone wrong? *confused*

  19. WindofChange, I think it’s total vote divided by number of seats won so far +1. And so on until all seats are filled.

    So you start dividing by 1 for everyone at stage 1 (as number of seats won so far is 0 for all parties +1). Then at stage II, the total of the most voted party is divided by 2 while the rest is still divided by 1. When a party wins second seat, at next stage, you would divide its original total by 3.

    Look at the top of SE (as it’s a region with one party winning more than 2 seats) page where 2009 results are reported with all figures for each stage.

  20. Ahh ok I thought you divided the total vote by 4 at the second stage for 2 seats lol 🙂

  21. Lib Dem candidates:

    1. Phil Bennion – MEP since 2012
    2. Jonathan Webber – Chair West Midlands Lib Dems
    3. Christine Tinker – Stood Stone 2010, candidate for Shrewsbury & Atcham 2015
    4. Ayoub Khan – Stood Birmingham Ladywood 2010
    5. Tim Bearder – son of Catherine Bearder MEP, Chair Oxford East Lib Dems
    6. Joanna Corbin – former Croydon council candidate
    7. Neville Farmer – stood Wyre Forest 2010

  22. Mike Nattrass has now resigned from UKIP after failing to get re-selected. With Nikki Sinclaire having jumped ship as well, the West Midlands now doesn’t have a UKIP MEP.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-24074756

  23. Sounds a rather totalitarian show around there…

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/sep/12/nigel-farage-ukip-totalitarian-mike-nattrass

    any of the “UKIP will conquer the world” therorists care to justify how this helps them at Euro Elections next year…?

  24. I don’t know why you think this resignation blows a hole in the theory that UKIP will continue to have successes. Messy resignations like this are never good publicity, but a resignation story is not going to be the silver bullet against UKIP. All it will do is add another layer of concern to some people about the party, who might otherwise be leaning to support it. In isolation, this event will not have a big impact.

  25. UKIP list

    1 Jill Seymour 10,483
    2 James Carver 4,763
    3 Bill Etheridge 4,423
    4 Phil Henrick 3,080
    5 Michael Wrench 2,818
    6 Michael Green 1,849
    7 Lyndon Jones 1,717

  26. Predict:

    UKIP 3/4
    LAB 2
    CONS 1/2

  27. UKIP: 4 seats
    Labour: 2 seats
    Conservatives: 1 seat

    This is one of UKIP’s strongest regions and anything approaching 40% here would mean a successful night for them. Labour will languish 12 points or so below UKIP but will still take 2 seats. The Conservatives are likely only to retain a single seat here though as a result of the surge in UKIP support.

  28. 111, I thought the East Midlands and the South West were better prospects for UKIP, not the West Midlands (except for Staffordshire and possibly parts of Shropshire).

  29. The West Midlands has always been very strong for UKIP in European Parliament elections. Also, sub-samples of opinion polls have consistently put them higher there than in the East Midlands.

  30. Seems to me 111 that if you add all your predictions and average them out UKIP would be on 40% nationally and there has not been one signal opinion poll showing them anywhere near that.

    For what it’s worth I think it will be UKIP 3 and con/lab 2 each… It is possible that independence from Europe take enough votes from UKIP to bring them down to 2 MEPs and LDs one as this is surely going to be their strongest region with the leader standing but wouldn’t count on it

  31. I don’t think Independence from Europe will get any MEP’s.

    To most people they’re just another fringe party. Most ordinary voters will never of heard of Mike Nattrass or be aware that he’s leading a UKIP break away group.

  32. Cotswold Tory, if you read into the opinion polls (i.e. the 10/10 likelihood to vote, which is always the best indicator of vote share in a European election) you will see that UKIP is on around 36% in pretty much all the polls.

  33. Perhaps UKIP and Labour will gain one seat each, from the Conservatives and the LibDems.

  34. The Conservatives would have 2 seats though, which seems a bit high. I haven’t seen many polls with the Tories over 20% on 10/10 likelihood to vote so I am expecting the worst (as much as I hope for the Tories to do well).

  35. 111 you seem to get fixated on subsets of polls of certain regions likelihood to vote e.c.t the poll as a whole has a margin of error of 4% usually so all these subsets are going to have errors far greater than that…

    All will come out in 2 weeks anyway but I think on the back of the results you should reform your view of polling as there is not a hope in hell chance that UKIP will get anywhere close to 40%

  36. UKIP win West Midlands:

    West Midlands result:

    UKIP 428,010 (31.49%)
    Lab 363,033 (26.71%)
    Con 330,470 (24.31%)
    LD 75,648 (5.57%)
    Green 71,464 (5.26%)
    AIFE 27,171 (2.00%)
    Sinclaire 23,426
    BNP 20,643
    Eng Dem 12,832
    No2EU 4,653
    Harmony 1,857
    TOTALS: 1,359,207

  37. Labour’s vote in most of the West Midlands conurbation was strong enough to secure a 2nd place finish. More worrying, however, was their poor vote in certain target seats like North Warwickshire, Cannock Chase and Worcester.

    UKIP took Staffordshire by storm.

  38. Phil Bradbourne MEP died last night.

  39. Well the Black country is a complete farce…

  40. 7 unchanged seats in the West Midlands:

    Birmingham Hodge Hill
    Burton
    Cannock Chase
    Coventry North East
    North Shropshire
    South Staffordshire
    Sutton Coldfield

  41. Another interesting seat is the new “Chelmsley Wood and Solihull North”
    A totally grotesque seat but interesting electorally. Tory by a very low vote share (31%) with a majority over Lab of 7% and a very sizable Lib Dem, UKIP and Green vote to squeeze.
    How that one would play in an actual election I do not know.

  42. The one good thing about Chelmsley Wood and Solihull North is that there’d probably be a much better turnout in the Chelmsley Wood area than there was when it was part of Meriden.

  43. Yes I agree with that, gives voters there are reason to get off the couch now that they no longer live in a Tory fortress.

  44. One change that I find highly suspect and actually will be writing to the BC about though is on the Coventry West and Meriden seat.

    Obviously the seat is horrible but I totally understand the need for adding Meriden and such.

    What I don’t understand is why they decided on a rejig of the Coventry wards as well. After adding Meriden and Knowle all you had to do was remove Whoberley and add it to Coventry South. Instead the BC decided to remove Labour voting Sherbourne and Radford as well and replace them with two Tory leaning wards from Coventry South (Westwood and Wainbody)

    This is the difference between a Tory majority of 8,000 and a Tory majority of 3,000 and to me these additional changes look highly dubious.

  45. Maybe the Tory nature of those wards is evidence that they have a natural affinity with each other and with Meriden and therefore it would make sense.

  46. @rivers maybe because they thought adding the 4 western wards made it look slightly less horrible? At least with Westwood and Wainbody there is some tenuous connection with the rest of the seat with Sherbourne and Radford there is none. I personally hope they redo this whole sorry mess of an area but there is no way they will switch those wards around for partisan reasons as you want as you create an even more dreadful seat than the current proposed one.

  47. Westwood I can sorta get what I don’t get is Wainbody, it curves under the Coventry South seat and it just looks weird adding it.

    Also lets not pretend adding Westwood and Wainbody makes the seat any nicer, Its an urban seat with a big chunk of rural Warwickshire slapped on. It doesn’t matter if the urban bits are made up predominantly of middle class suburbs or council estates. The only Coventry ward that has a claim to being “semi rural” is Bablake, All the others clearly don’t belong with Meriden.

  48. No they most certainly don’t belong with Meriden and I hope the thing is completely changed especially as Solihull borough can have two whole seats (I have recently done a correctional plan which is much nicer which I think I will submit to the commission, not that they will probably listen to little old me but still). But my point was simply switching Westwood and Wainbody for Sherbourne and Radford makes the seat objectively much worse, not better. Look on a map Meriden and Knowle are far, far better linked to South West Coventry than they are to North Coventry.

    Also the other think which really irks me about the West Midlands plan is the Worcestershire-Warwickshire cross county seat (Evesham and South Warwickshire) as it firstly is not necessary, you one have to move a few wards around in Worcestershire to prevent it and just create an ‘Evesham’ seat. And secondly that seat is single handedly responsible for creating the mess around the Coventry-Solihull area. Warwickshire and Coventry together can have 7 seats and Solihull 2 and that is the arrangement that should be used.

  49. I agree re the area as a whole, its fugly as hell I just disagree that the switch a roo in Coventry makes things any nicer, it certainly can’t be pegged down to connectivity. I took a gander and the main arterial road connecting the Solihull wards to Coventry proper is the A45/A4114 which runs right into the Sherbounre ward and into the city centre. Westwood and Wainbody on the other hand are only connected by a series of B roads and are cut off from the rest of the seat by a rail line!!! And lets not also forget adding Wainbody means that the seat contains wards on literally opposite ends of the city which is kinda dumb.

  50. No Rivers the A45 is not a connecting road because it run nowhere near a lot of the seat. In Coventry West and Meriden for all it faults it is at least moderately well joined up with it being easy to get from one place to another. As there are a huge chunk of connecting roads in the south of the Meriden ward which go straight through to the South West Coventry. Are you seriously trying to argue that Knowle an Meriden are better linked to Radford, which is so far away from Knowle it would be beyond a joke if they were suggested to be in the same constituency, than they are to Westwood (we both know you don’t really believe that but are just saying it for partisan reasons). Thankfully the boundary commissions aren’t a branch of the Labour party lol.

    If you are going to right to them to complain about this area suggest that they redo the whole thing (as I will be doing). If you complain that Radford and Knowle aren’t in the same however seat your email/letter will be chucked like all the stupidly partisan proposals they probably receive straight in the dustbin.

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