Wales European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 206332 28.1% (+7.9%)
2. Nathan Gill (UKIP) 201983 27.6% (+14.8%)
3. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 127742 17.4% (-3.8%)
4. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 111864 15.3% (-3.3%)
. (Green) 33275 4.5% (-1%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 28930 3.9% (-6.7%)
. (BNP) 7655 1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 6633 0.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 4459 0.6% (-1.2%)
. (No2EU) 2803 0.4% (-0.9%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 1384 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
Nathan Gill (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Formerly personal assistant to John Bufton MEP. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014
Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 145193 21.2% (+1.8%)
2. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 138852 20.3% (-12.2%)
3. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 126702 18.5% (+1.1%)
4. John Bufton (UKIP) 87585 12.8% (+2.3%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 73082 10.7% (+0.2%)
. (Green) 38160 5.6% (+2%)
. (BNP) 37114 5.4% (+2.5%)
. (Christian) 13037 1.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 12402 1.8% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 8600 1.3% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 3793 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
John Bufton (UKIP) Born 1962, Llanidloes. Former care home manager. Former Powys councillor. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997 for the Referendum party, Ceredigion 2000 by-election, Monmouth 2005, North Wales 2007 Welsh elections for UKIP. MEP for Wales since 2009.
Comments - 210 Responses on “Europe Wales”
  1. Many in my party are not expecting to win a seat here. The drop in vote share will be too much for us to survive with.

    The Conservatives have very little chance of making 15% here when an enormous nation-wide drop in their vote share is expected. 20% nationwide would be an exceptionally good result, though I am expecting somewhere around 17% at present.

  2. To clarify, when I said “I think the tipping point for Plaid will be about 15%”, I meant that if they go any lower than that they will not get a seat, i.e. that will be the approximate threshold for the 4th seat.

    I did not mean that was what Plaid will actually poll – every time I have posted in this thread I have disclaimed any knowledge regarding Plaid’s popularity, and decline to make predictions on them unless I see reliable polling data specific to Wales.

  3. UKIP is slipping in the polls, though the Euros do throw surprises out there and can boost smaller parties, I think the more ambitious estimates need to be scaled back by a couple percent.

  4. WOC, I don’t think anyone on here takes 111 seriously anyway.

  5. WOC
    You have no evidence other than tory gossip to substantiate your last comment.

    In fact we are recruiting strongly and getting votes way above the forecasts.

  6. Seems unlikely that we would fail to get a seat here.

  7. If any party wins 2 seats, which Labour has a good chance of doing; it would be the Tories who would fail to take a seat as opposed to UKIP and Plaid.

  8. Would it? Not convinced on either front actually. We could easily beat either here – even if Labour doubled our vote, again not sure how likely that is.

  9. I can see our vote going down by 5 points here, and with UKIP on the up and that sizeable BNP vote going into the UKIP column by and large, UKIP will probably squeeze ahead of us. I don’t think that Plaid will go any more than 2 points either way, so I think that we are the favourites to come fourth here; having done so well last time on the back of an unpopular Labour government.

    I do hope that we retain the seat though.

  10. No seat for conservatives in Wales – they are in total disarray. Words from a conservative candidate. Should really have had a look around before making that comment.

  11. Steve you seem to come across as a bitter anti Tory rather than rational commentator…

    All the polls I have seen have the Tories holding up better in Wales than Scotland and some other areas and there are some areas or real Tory strength in the north and west..

    It’s touch and go whether labour gets 2 seats and who looses theirs but I don’t think it’s any more likely to be the Tory than plaid..

  12. I agree, it’s always important to note that Wales is not Scotland. For one, nationalist politics are no where near as big as it is north of the border. Plaid have yet to challenge Labour strength in Wales as the main centre left party. Moreover Wales seems more open to Euroscepticism compared to the strangely pro-EU stance of Scotland, hence support for UKIP.

  13. Neil’s comment interested me – I don’t following Welsh politics particularly but, in relation to Plaid having yet to challenge Labour, I wonder whether this is because Plaid appear to me to be rather to the left of the SNP and therefore less mainstream?

    I think I remember, for example, Leeann Wood talking about raiding corporate private pension schemes to fund investment (ignoring the fact that the vast majority of members of such schemes are individuals on fairly average salaries, with fairly modest pension provision).

    The SNP are left of centre but they do seem to centrist enough to potentially attract some Tory voters – even Michael Forsyth commented on QT a couple of years ago that Salmond had run “an essentially competent administration”.

    Just a couple of thoughts, be interested to see what people think?

  14. Interesting attack on UKIP by Wood, very different to salmonds dismissal, she clearly sees them as a threat and is right to do so, they could outpoll PC in thiselelection as well as the Tories.

  15. If Labour win two of the Welsh Euro Seats and the Tories hold on to their one ( both likely ) then Plaid will have to scrap with UKIP for the fourth seat.
    As someone who holds both these parties in pretty much equal contempt I find it amusing that P.C. and UKIP are polar opposites – the former a left-wing, pro-EU and anti UK State Party, the latter a right wing, anti-EU and, by definition, pro-UK State Party.
    I hope they both cancel each other out!

  16. If UKIP eats up enough votes from Mid Wales (I think that’s Plaid’s main territory), that could deprive them an MEP.

  17. I expect UKIP to beat both the LDs and PC.

  18. YouGov poll of Wales for the EU election:

    Labour 39%
    UKIP 20%
    Conservatives 18%
    PC 11%
    Lib Dems 7%

    Lab 2
    UKIP 1
    Con 1

  19. We in UKIP have been leafletting since January. We are seeing a ‘tremendous’ surge in support in SE Wales. We have targeted the Valley’s in particular, and have recruited strongly – Wales is now the fastest growing region of the party. Torfaen alone has more than 70 members.

    Polls tell us that we are close to taking a second seat.

    The real piece of interest in the last 4 months has been the lack of effort from the other party’s, we have not seen them at all – in fact our postal leaflet arrived in voters homes the day before the postal votes arrived – still no one has received anything from anyone else.

    You have to work for peoples votes, labour still takes its supporters for granted!!!

  20. I live in one of the safest Tory seats and have been canvassing for the Conservatives for the past week. Despite UKIP not doin very well in the Local elections last year, over 50% of the people I have canvassed have told me that they are voting for UKIP this month.

    I doubt that the Lib Dems will retain a single MEP seat this month unless they hold on to one in the South East.

    I will be posting my final predictions today.

  21. Presumably you think it will be 2 lab 2 ukip then?

    I still think 2 lab 1 ukip 1 tory is more likely.

  22. 2 Lab and 2 UKIP is gping to be incredibly difficult. Still a good chance of 1 of each.

  23. Where have you been canvassing 111? I can’t see UKIP getting twice CON vote anywhere except North East

  24. Labour: 2 seats
    UKIP: 2 seats

    Three seats here are secure (2 Labour, 1 UKIP) but the final seat is essentially a toss up between the Tories, Plaid, and UKIP. Plaid and the Tories are both likely to fall back, with UKIP advancing into the mid twenties. The Conservative vote will hold up better in Wales, but with only 4 seats available it will be a challenge for them to hold their seat.

  25. My hunch is the Tories will just about hold a seat.

  26. 111 you say your a Tory but everything you post on here is doomsday stuff based on the massive amount of canvassing you do which makes any prediction you make seem way too biased to be taken seriously..

    It seems certain lab will get 2 seats. UKIP will do a lot better here than Scotland I agree and I would be shocked of they didn’t get one seat but 2 is out of the question.. At the moment I think the Tories are about 5% ahead of plaid but turnout is key and could go either way… I would be very disappointed if con didn’t get a seat in a region they came top in last time and I think con UKIP and plaid will be within 5% of each other making for a exciting poll

  27. Labour would have done well if they win two seats here. My guess is that the same parties will win seats here as last time, but in terms of votes the order in which they come will change.

    One of the many disadvantages of the Closed List system is that in a small seat like this where the number of seats matches the number of serious parties it is very difficult to get a result other than one seat each.

  28. I think that if UKIP was to win a second seat it would be very tight. I think that the Tories will come ahead of Plaid but I feel as if UKIP will edge out the Tories ever so slightly here.

    Although I did say 2 UKIP, the second UKIP seat is arguably tighter than any seat in any other region. Swinburne could well retain it.

  29. The problem is that there are only 4 seats here after all.

  30. I think the Lib Dems are likely to hold one seat in SE and one in London as these are large constituencies. they are probably good for one in the SW. Otherwise I think they will lose seats to UK, as they did in Wales last time.

    To get two seats each, UKIP and Labour need to be on over 30% of the vote and I think it will be difficult for them both to achieve this, when there are three other main parties and a host of independents. A repeat of last time must be most likely in Wales.

  31. I’m not so sure…

    Don’t forget that the only polls conducted specifically in Wales were weighted against UKIP and somewhat towards the tories ( who afterall won last time out).

    Also the questions on euro voting intentions came after questions on Westminster and assembly intentions where UKIP was marginalised as an ‘other’ party.

  32. The Lib Dems did not lose an MEP seat to UKIP last time out they have never held a seat in Wales and UKIP have been beating then in Euro elections in Wales for 10 years now (soon to be 15)

    The status quo should be maintained here as UKIP are gathering up large amounts of former Labour voters in the Labour heartlands.

    Thus because of this plaid will hang onto their MEP as Labour should not be able to reach the required percentage for two seats unless some extra dramatic collapse happens with the Conservative or plaid vote.

  33. The two Wales only polls have shown exactly, a plaid meltdown, to c.11-12% of the vote. I see 15% as the cut off point for losing a seat ti Labour for either the Tories or plaid.

  34. New YouGov poll of Wales for the EU election, Among those most likely to vote –
    Labour 32%
    UKIP 22%
    Plaid 17%
    Conservatives 16%
    LibDems 7%

    Lab 1
    Ukip 1
    Plaid 1

    last seat between the conservatives and Labour

  35. Not great for the Lib Dems or Tories on the basis of this poll. The Tories would be happy just to get a seat I would imagine. It is incredible that Labour have only a 10% lead in the 30s in a part of the UK that is one of its traditional heartlands of strength.

  36. If latest YouGov figures hold it’s going to be close. The PR works by dividing by number of candidates elected + 1. So if Labour gets 32% their first candidate gets in but then they go down to 16%. UKIP on 22% get in and vote goes down to 11%. We would then have Plaid 17%, Labour 16% and Tories 16% for remaining 2 seats. How close is that.

  37. Wales:

    Lab 206,332
    UKIP 201,983
    Con 127,742
    PC 111,864
    Green 33,275
    LD 28,930
    BNP 7,655
    Britain First 6,633
    Soc LP 4,459
    N02EU 2,803
    SP GB 1,384

    Labour hold first place in Wales by 4,349 votes.

  38. Stunning result for UKIP in Wales. Just off of coming first!

  39. Ukip did extremely well and i’m guessing that labour are quite disappointed that they couldn’t secure a second seat. Not a bad result for Plaid considering how eurosceptic and anglocentric this election has been.

  40. Poor result by Labour, spectacular by UKIP but solid from conservatives

  41. why is there no split by voting place within wlaes for the EU results? eg only the totals of 206,000 for labour 2012,000 for ukip etc shown. where can i get these? thank you

  42. There’re rumours on Twitter that say it looks like LEAVE will win in Wales

  43. I think welsh speakers went for remain just.

  44. Wales voting for Leave is a little bonkers, given how well subsidised the country is by the EU. But again, that’s a huge failure in the Remain campaign.

  45. Maybe people in Wales are sick of handouts and would rather support themselves however difficult it is.

  46. Ummmm…ok.

  47. You think being addicted to handouts is a good thing?

  48. Of course not. I’ve spent my entire life so far living and working in the South East, London and Hong Kong. Not places renowned for their scrounging.

    However, I’m pretty certain the Welsh, just like the Cornish, will want to have their cake and eat it. Note the frantic communication from the Cornish this morning. Vote place and keep the subsidies!

  49. ‘Maybe people in Wales are sick of handouts and would rather support themselves however difficult it is.’

    The experience of Merthyr Tydfil – where at one stage up to 20% of the town’s working population was signed off work on incapacity benefit -would suggest otherwise, and such places voting fir Leave isn’t just bonkers but sheer lunacy

    Whilst I sincerely hope the Brexiters are right and that in five years time we look back and think what a great decision we made to go it alone, sadly I think it’s probably more likely we will asking ourselves “what have we done to our country ” as we watch the chaos unfold

  50. The Liverpool City Region voted Leave too.

    Tristan & Tim J – I think it was just a bit patronising in the end here and in Cornwall too. The Remain side didn’t fail to mention Objective 1 – it’s all they mentioned on a daily basis up here. People were ware they gave us new pavements but they weighed that ‘benefit’ up v the downsides of the EU.

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