Wales European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 206332 28.1% (+7.9%)
2. Nathan Gill (UKIP) 201983 27.6% (+14.8%)
3. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 127742 17.4% (-3.8%)
4. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 111864 15.3% (-3.3%)
. (Green) 33275 4.5% (-1%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 28930 3.9% (-6.7%)
. (BNP) 7655 1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 6633 0.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 4459 0.6% (-1.2%)
. (No2EU) 2803 0.4% (-0.9%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 1384 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
portrait
Nathan Gill (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Formerly personal assistant to John Bufton MEP. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014
portrait
Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
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Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 145193 21.2% (+1.8%)
2. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 138852 20.3% (-12.2%)
3. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 126702 18.5% (+1.1%)
4. John Bufton (UKIP) 87585 12.8% (+2.3%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 73082 10.7% (+0.2%)
. (Green) 38160 5.6% (+2%)
. (BNP) 37114 5.4% (+2.5%)
. (Christian) 13037 1.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 12402 1.8% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 8600 1.3% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 3793 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
portrait
Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
portrait
Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
portrait
John Bufton (UKIP) Born 1962, Llanidloes. Former care home manager. Former Powys councillor. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997 for the Referendum party, Ceredigion 2000 by-election, Monmouth 2005, North Wales 2007 Welsh elections for UKIP. MEP for Wales since 2009.
Comments - 200 Responses on “Europe Wales”
  1. I have no idea of the strength of Plaid here, so cannot really comment on where they might fit in. Also, I cannot gauge in my head properly the likely approximate vote shares without being able to factor in PC, so I can’t be confident about how votes may translate to seats.

    Labour will resume normal service with a fairly comfortable victory. UK Independence will remain above the Libdems but below the Conservatives.

  2. my guess
    labour
    plaid
    ukip
    cons

    1 seat each, labour just short of getting the second seat at the expense of the conservatives.

  3. Labour
    UKIP
    Con
    Plaid

    2 1 1 0

  4. The electoral system makes a different result quite hard to achieve. To win two seats a party probably needs at least 35% and UKIP won one seat with just 13% last time. Assuming the Lib Dems don’t recover nationally, the same four – possibly in a different order – will be elected.
    Seats are more likely to change hands in the larger Euro constituencies as the swing required to move the outcome is smaller under the de Hondt system of counting.

  5. Derek Vaughan MEP reselected

    New candidates

    Jayne Bryant (Newport West activist)
    Christina Rees (Ron Davies’ former wife; Arfon 2011 candidate)
    Alex Thomas (Neath Cllr)

    Second spot will go to one of the 2 ladies after members will vote on them this summer.

  6. I would have thought Jayne Bryant would be a shoo-in for Newport W if Paul Flynn stands down if she doesn’t get elected next year.

  7. or for the Welsh Assembly as also the AM is oldish in Newport West (she will be 73 in 2016).

  8. Labour will receive a boost here.. 2 Labour, 1 UKIP, 1 Con
    Plaid voters will switch to UKIP

  9. The UKIP MEP has announced today that he won’t stand in 2014

  10. Plaid list:

    1) Jill Evans MEP
    2) Marc Jones (former Wrexham Cllr)
    3) Stephen Cornelius (stood in Brecon and Radnorshire 1997 and Cynon Valley 2001, on South Wales West list in 1999)
    4) Ioan Bellin (works for Simon Thomas AM, previously worked for Leann Wood and as press officer for Plaid Assembly group)

  11. Why would Plaid voters switch to UKIP? The two parties are utterly different. Realistically, Labour will only pick up a second if they can get more than double Plaid’s votes, which looks a tough ask. More likely the same four parties as last time, but in a different order.

  12. I also think that it is very unlikely that Plaid voters will switch to UKIP. The 2 parties are miles apart. I think it will be interesting to see the effect if any of UKIP on the Conservative vote in Wales.

  13. Lib Dem voters are also miles apart from UKIP, but that doesn’t stop protest voters from switching directly from one to the other, eg Eastleigh etc, now that Lib Dem are not the main home for protest voters.

    Plaid don’t have the struggle to contend with of having been in government recently, like the Lib Dems, but all the same there is no reason why protest votes should not go direct from them to UKIP if voters feel UKIP can send a bigger protest message to the Big Two parties.

    Sometimes psephologists try and be too rational!

  14. For the same reason identified by Far Easterner, Green and BNP votes may go to UKIP.

  15. ‘For the same reason identified by Far Easterner, Green and BNP votes may go to UKIP.’

    I’ve always seen UKIP as a BNP without the thuggery – and I think the views of many of their candidates elected in the last local elections reinforce such a view – but beyind reasons of protest why on earth would Green voters vote for the most unevironmentally friendly party of the lot. It makes about as much sense as Labour voters witching to UKIP.

    And to think that we used to poke fun at the Americans for their lack of political clout

  16. There’s some crossover between Greens and extreme euroscepticism. Think of the Goldsmiths for example.

  17. I don’t think it even need be as sophisticated as that. There is always a generic protest vote that can go to any number of parties which are perceived as anti-establishment or against the mainstream. Just look at the county council results in Stevenage for an illustration of this effect. There were two seats with no UKIP candidate and in these the Green share averaged 7.7% and TUSC averaged 4.5%. In the four seats where UKIP did stand the Greens averaged 3.1% and TUSC averaged 1.1%. This is not to be explained by differing demographic profiles or electoral dynamics, for example Bedwell and Shephall are very similar to one another in this respect but the performance of both the Green party and TUSC was much stronger in Shephall where there was no UKIP candidate than in Bedwell where there was. The conclusion is obvious – that many of those who voted for Green and TUSC would have voted for UKIP if they had been given the choice while many of those who voted UKIP would have gone for one of those two parties if they had been denied the choice of UKIP.

  18. ‘The conclusion is obvious – that many of those who voted for Green and TUSC would have voted for UKIP if they had been given the choice while many of those who voted UKIP would have gone for one of those two parties if they had been denied the choice of UKIP.’

    The stats back up what you say but it’s simply illogical that a party of the hard Right should attract votes from both Left and Right – as UKIP seem to have done

  19. Only illogical through an ideological prism. As a non-ideological anti-establishment vote it is perfectly logical!

  20. ‘Only illogical through an ideological prism.’

    Illogical full stop

    Why would anybody with even the slightrest interrest in the environment (Green Party voters) vote for a party that doesn’t even accept the theory of global warming?

    And why would anybody with any kind if interest in creating a more equal society (Labour voters) vote for a party that seeks to extend it by introducing a flat tax

    It’s the equivalent of Jesse Jackson’s followers voting for the Tea Party in the US mid-term elections – it would never happen there, and it shouldn’t happen here

  21. Ah, but what if people were voting Green not because they gave a hoot about the environment, but because they didn’t like Labour, Conservative or Lib Dem and wanted to give an alternative party a try, almost regardless of what that alternative was. Those people could equally well vote UKIP for identical reasons.

    Not sure if logical is the right word, granted, but it is explicable.

  22. Fair point Anthony – there is a definite strong ‘protest’ vote when a fourth party has made a breakthrough – whether its UKIP in 2013, The Greens in 1989 or Respect at a 2011 by-election

    I just hope the latest is as short-lived as the other two

  23. There will be people who don’t know what UKIP stands for (beyond being anti-EU), people who don’t know what the Greens stand for (beyond a vague notion of environmentalism), and people who will vote for anyone as a protest.

    I remember speaking to a guy who said he was going to vote Green, and had voted BNP at the previous election. His views hadn’t changed much, just he was determined not to vote for one of the three major parties, and had spoken to someone from the Greens who he thought came over well.

    But it may be more difficult for UKIP to take a swing from other minor parties in the European elections, as the party already did well and had lots of exposure in 2009. The exception might be the BNP, whose voters are more likely to be sympathetic to UKIP’s views anyway, and who were doing well in 2009 but are no longer an obvious place for a non-political protest vote.

  24. Both the Greens and BNP have won seats in the Chelmsley Wood area of Solihull council and I suspect there must have been a lot of people voting for both parties in different elections.

  25. I suspect the 2009 results were a bit over inflated for UKIP so they could see their vote share fall by about 5%, though the desertion of BNP by many of its former voters may negate this effect. If enough people who voted Lib Dem last time switched to the Greens, the Greens pushed hard enough and non-Big 3 voters don’t all hop off to UKIP, then the Greens might win the 4th seat. UKIP support in Wales is a lot less strong than in England anyway.

  26. What makes you suspect it was overinflated and to the extent it will see its share drop by 40 percent? Personally I find it hard to imagine any scenario that would return a different composition, Labour will increase its vote but probably not by enough to take a second MEP of no.4.

    UKIP is weaker here in Wales than England certainly but its important not to exaggerate the point, i) the presence of a very well established fourth party unique to Wales is what differentiates politics in Wales, not lack of UKIP support, once you look at UKIP as a proportion of votes against UK parties it goes up to near 16 percent, lower than England as a whole certainly, but not out of kilter against other similar Labour voting areas such as the North East and West, ii) even though its lower its trends don’t seem too different to elsewhere to indicate that UKIP could realistically witness a 40% here where there is an increase forecasted as a whole.

  27. UKIP is without a doubt weaker in Wales than England, but I think that they may actually be stronger than the Tories as Welsh Assembly polls last year did suggest this as far as I remember.

    It is possible that the Tories could lose their seat here, with Plaid holding on and UKIP and Labour fighting over the second seat.

  28. So you think UKIP could win 2 seats and the Conservatives none?

    Bearing in mind the Welsh Assembly elections were 2 years ago, and the Conservatives had their best ever result, I am not sure your logic stacks up.

  29. If the Lib Dem vote share decreases enough and protest votes and the like reduce major party vote share then could we see a Green gain, especially if they draw from the BNP like in Nuneaton?

  30. Please go away

  31. No I’m sure UKIP’s populist, flimsy policies will ensure they win another seat here, won’t it, Pete?

  32. Actually Pete, a real Green ramper is something of a novelty here. Previous Green contributors, such as Ben Foley and Alec who contributes to the main UKPR thread have usually been very sober & considered in their predictions & assessments. Mind you, I guess it could become tiresome after a while.

  33. No I think it became tiresome immediately

  34. Barnaby, it may be that I’m a centre-leftish student that makes me so optimistic for the Greens 😉

  35. @Matt

    In 2014 there will be a UKIP surge nationwide and as only four seats are up for grabs in Wales, the Tories may just about be pipped for a seat. I expect to see a lot of CON to UKIP switching for the euros, so if they or Labour do well enough; the Tories could lose out on the last seat.

  36. In Wales? To what extent is it less anti-UKIP than say Scotland then?

  37. I think Pete you may have a point on second thoughts.

  38. Look at the last European poll results or any of our previous replies, Winds.

  39. Conservative candidates – Kay Swinburne guaranteed of top spot:

    Kay Swinburne MEP – MEP since 1999

    Dan Boucher – stood Swansea E 2011 Welsh Assembly elections, works in public affairs

    Aled Davies – joint leader of the Conservative group on Powys council, works as a hill farmer

    Richard Hopkin – Stood S Wales C in 2011 Welsh Assembly elections, and

    Steve Haggett (either a teacher or works as a wedding photographer – I couldn’t tell which was him!)

  40. Conservative list

    1. Dr Kay Swinburne MEP
    2. Aled Davies
    3. Dr Dan Boucher
    4. Richard Hopki

  41. Labour list

    1 Derek Vaughan MEP
    2 Jaune Bryant
    3 Alex Thomas
    4 Christine Rees

  42. UKIP candidates:

    Nathan Gill – Stood Ynys Mon 2010, 2013 byelection
    James Cole – Deputy Chair UKIP Wales
    Gareth Dunn – Stood Torfaen 2010
    David Rowlands – Stood Newport E 2010
    Caroline Jones – Stood Gower 2011, S Wales PCC election 2012 for the Conservatives
    Martyn Ford – Stood Swansea W 2010
    Brian Morris – The only candidate I couldn’t find anything out about!

  43. LAB 37.4
    UKIP 19.4
    CON 16.6
    PC 14.3
    GRN 6.4
    LD 5.3

  44. Adjusted for OTH:
    LAB 34.8 (2)
    UKIP 18.2 (1)
    CON 15.6 (1)
    PC 13.4 (0)
    OTH 7.0 (N/A)
    GRN 6.0 (0)
    LD 5.0 (0)

  45. UKIP ranking

    1 Nathan Gill 1,254
    2 James Cole 697
    3 Caroline Jones 668
    4 David Rowlands 639

  46. 1 or 2 LAB
    1 PC
    1 UKIP
    0 or 1 CON

  47. I think the certainties here are 1 seat each for Lab, Con and UKIP (in that order). Whether Labour can gain a second at the expense of Plaid is difficult to assess. Labour need double the Plaid vote share, and I think the tipping point for Plaid will be about 15%, as Labour should manage about 30%.

  48. Not sure about that. The top four parties we can agree on as with number one, but I wouldn’t like to guess 2, 3 and 4. You’d have to go back over 20 years to see plaid performing at the low levels you predict.

  49. I think it is far more likely that the Tories will fall below the seat quota mark than Plaid.

  50. Plaid will have at least 16%:

    2 LAB (28%)
    1 UKIP (23%)
    1 PC (19%)
    0 CON (13%)
    0 GRN (7%)
    0 LD (5%)
    0 BNP (1%)

    0 OTH (4%)

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