Wales European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 206332 28.1% (+7.9%)
2. Nathan Gill (UKIP) 201983 27.6% (+14.8%)
3. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 127742 17.4% (-3.8%)
4. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 111864 15.3% (-3.3%)
. (Green) 33275 4.5% (-1%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 28930 3.9% (-6.7%)
. (BNP) 7655 1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 6633 0.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 4459 0.6% (-1.2%)
. (No2EU) 2803 0.4% (-0.9%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 1384 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
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Nathan Gill (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Formerly personal assistant to John Bufton MEP. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014
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Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
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Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 145193 21.2% (+1.8%)
2. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 138852 20.3% (-12.2%)
3. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 126702 18.5% (+1.1%)
4. John Bufton (UKIP) 87585 12.8% (+2.3%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 73082 10.7% (+0.2%)
. (Green) 38160 5.6% (+2%)
. (BNP) 37114 5.4% (+2.5%)
. (Christian) 13037 1.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 12402 1.8% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 8600 1.3% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 3793 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
portrait
Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
portrait
Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
portrait
John Bufton (UKIP) Born 1962, Llanidloes. Former care home manager. Former Powys councillor. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997 for the Referendum party, Ceredigion 2000 by-election, Monmouth 2005, North Wales 2007 Welsh elections for UKIP. MEP for Wales since 2009.
Comments - 200 Responses on “Europe Wales”
  1. Seems pretty extraordinary to u-turn on a manifesto.

    Two explanations for why it has happened this time:

    1/ Manifestos rarely contain major surprises, or if they do they are ‘election giveaways’ rather than things liable to bomb in the short term. For the most part policies are well trialled/developed over the course of the years leading up to an election and refined/ditched before ever reaching the manifesto if unpopular. This time that couldn’t be done as there wasn’t any time to prepare for the election.

    2/ In recent years it seems to have become much harder for politicians to stand by policies that aren’t popular. I would hypothesise this is due to a mix of increased backbench independence, even on budgets and during election campaigns where perfect loyalty used to be expected; the press being more prepared to go after policies they don’t like, even if they are from the party they support; feedback being much quicker thanks to social media.

  2. “This time that couldn’t be done as there wasn’t any time to prepare for the election.”

    That’s an acceptable excuse for Labour but not the Tories. Holding an election that you are not prepared for is stupid.

    May has shown herself as not fit to be Prime Minister and TBH at this point I won’t be that upset if she loses.

  3. ”Assassinating an unpopular leader not long after having assassinated the previous unpopular leader isn’t easy or desirable though.”

    They didn’t assassinate Cameron though he was going to stand down before 2020 regardless of the referendum result and straight away if it was leave. My guess atm is the Tories will allow her to complete Brexit and then she’ll ‘voluntarily’ step down after that.

  4. “My guess atm is the Tories will allow her to complete Brexit and then she’ll ‘voluntarily’ step down after that.”

    My hope is that, somehow, someone more competent is installed to negotiate a sensible Brexit. The worrying thing for the country at this juncture is that neither May nor Corbyn are in any way competent enough to do so.

  5. Notable, of course, that the Tories’ infamous social care policies don’t apply in Wales, but they are being punished here too. Is there something bigger that us commentators are missing?

  6. Three likely results will please me immensely, just to see the look on your (virtual) face 🙂

    Lab hold Derbyshire North East, Lab hold Bishop Auckland, Lab regain Copeland

  7. Plop
    This Poll might be rogue in that its showing a very large swing to Lab but its main message is right in line with the nationwide picture (if the polls are to be believed) that there has been a sizable shift to Lab and the Tory lead is well down on what they were expecting just three weeks ago. Whether this is as good as it gets for Lab, whether the trend continues or whether the Tories open up a massive lead again remains to be seen.

  8. “This is good for May because it motivates her supporters to actually vote.”

    What supporters? Senior Conservatives are already sharpening their knives 😉

  9. Plop
    “This is good for May because it motivates her supporters to actually vote, you don’t want vast leads otherwise your own people don’t bother voting”

    That’s an apologists argument, it equally enthuses Lab voters (who we know are less likely to vote in general) who now think we might have a chance and thus their vote is worthwhile. Also with all he Corbyn fear mongering over the past two years I very much imagine the Tory core vote was planning on voting anyway.

  10. Plopwellian Tory

    One thing I like is that you are rattled.

    If Theresa May loses her majority are you going to go into full meltdown mode again? Go on, do it on Stoke on Trent Central thread just for old times sake.

  11. I wouldnt be too surprised to not see May stand in the 2022 election. Even through I still expect a massive Majoirty for her next month.

  12. ”If Theresa May loses her majority are you going to go into full meltdown mode again?”

    I hope you don’t the suicide thing I really don’t want to read any more of that…

    But I think we are getting slightly ahead of ourselves survation had the Tories up 14% in a poll published today. While the gap between Lab and Con has narrowed dramatically since the start of the campaign they are still on course to pick up seats and increase their majority. A hung parliament isn’t on the cards (at least not yet).

  13. Through I agree that May’s style of government is going to lead to problems for her in the years to come if she is not careful.

  14. This is starting to get a bit ridiculous. The Tories aren’t going to lose their majority. I still don’t believe that more than 30% will vote for Corbyn. I don’t see how a few bad headlines is going to change that many minds. Remember the vast majority of the electorate have never used Twitter and don’t get any news from Facebook or any other social media. At most they will see a fairly negative 5 minute segment on the BBC.

    Quite frankly PT is right. The right wing media is playing this well and ensuring a higher turnout if people see that Labour has a chance with a few days to go.

  15. Surrey, your home being repossessed by the state after you die is not “a few bad headlines”. For a lot of old people, social care is not merely their top priority but their only priority – and something which transcends party loyalties.

  16. What I’m saying is that for the previous chatter on this page to be correct, it would need quite a few million people to have changed their mind. Forget Corbyn, forget Brexit, or the fact that May is still vastly more popular than the other leaders.
    Just like we we saw 2 weeks before Brexit the opinion on this site seems completely out of step with opinion in the country. It’s just my opinion, but as I come from a working class northern mill town I think I come from a different perspective than most people on here.

  17. Surreymanc
    “but as I come from a working class northern mill town I think I come from a different perspective than most people on here”

    I believe HH is from a Northern coal mining area, as for me not a mill town but I’ve lived in Liverpool my whole life so certainly Northern.

    Geography aside I’m not predicting the Tories will go backwards this election I just feel that unless the past week was just a blip the Tories have lost their landslide and may only gain about 20 seats or so from Lab. But I must emphasise again that things can change.

  18. Surreymanc

    I’m afraid you come to this site from exactly the same perspective as everyone else does, ie that of an overly political saddo.

    Leaving my troll mode to one side, none of us knows whether the current Tory blip is merely that, or marks the start of an unravelling that will continue up to polling day. At least it’s made things more interesting.

  19. Rivers

    I was born in Mansfield

  20. HH- of course I’m an over political saddo. Why else would I post on here ☺️

    I’m just trying to stick to the predictions I made a few weeks back. As I mentioned earlier this is just noise to the vast majority of the electorate. Views will have been informed over the last 12-18 months and are unlikely to change over such a short period.

  21. I would be upset but it’s true

  22. Yougov Welsh poll – LAB 46, CON 34 (both down 1). PC 9, LD 5, UKIP 5

  23. For context, compared to 2015 – LAB are up 9, CON up 7, PC down 3, LD down 1.5, UKIP down 8.5

    So a 1% swing from CON to LAB but, of course, is it uniform?

  24. Labour aren’t down they are unchanged, Plaid up.

  25. Guestimate Wales seat no’s:

    Lab 23/24
    Con 13
    PC 3
    LD 0/1 (I know it’s crazy but I do believe Lab will be 2nd in Ceredigion and have a small chance of taking 1st on about 25%)

  26. Plaid have just announced the end of their deal with Labour and are going into opposition with the Senedd.

    Their expelled AM Dafydd Ellis-Thomas is still supporting the Labour administration, which together with Lib Dem Kirsty Williams means they are just about scraping to a majority.

  27. Carwen Jones has unveiled plans to extend voting to 16-year-olds for Welsh Assembly and local elections.

  28. Look forward to seeing how it pans put

  29. The Govt have announced a Statutory Instrument in the Lords which would allow Party HQs to nominate a person to become an MEP once the Party List is exhausted from the previous European Elections. A Party HQ would have 28 days to provide and authorise a name and use of the Party emblem to an ERO.

    The reasoning is that a European By-election would cost over £7m in Wales and £21m in the South East, as well as being needed as a short-term solution as we are leaving the EU before the next European elections.

    Lord Rennard said it was unnecessary and undemocratic as upto now Cons, Lab, LDs have all managed to replace vacancies due to deaths or resignations from Lists.

    The Govt countered that it had already been used in N Ireland and that system was introduced by Labour with no objection from the LibDems or Alliance Parties.

    The suspected reason is in case UKIP ceases to have a Nominating Officer during the next year. The SI passed the Lords after a short debate and the Regs now go to the Commons.

  30. This would be a particular problem for UKIP if Nathan Gill resigned from the EP, as I believe all the other people on the list are in the Welsh assembly or have left the party…

  31. Yes, UKIP and Cons both now have no-one available on Lists in a Region each.

  32. Senedd passes minimum alcohol pricing by 45 votes to 5. Only what remains of UKIP voting against.

    I must say, I do feel a bit awkward cheering for Neil Hamilton’s far-right headbangers, but on this one I happen to agree with them. Good on them for sticking up for the alcoholics who (along with a few underage drinkers who will grow out of it) are the ones drinking this ultra-cheap stuff, and are going to be damaged by the policy. No, it won’t help wean them off, because the mark of an addict is that no cost is to high to dissuade him from feeding his addiction. It’ll just turn alcoholics into bankrupt alcoholics. You help alcoholics by trying to cure their addiction, not by trying to price them out of the market.

  33. I understand what your saying but personally I support this decision. I’ve worked with alcoholics and there’s no prizes for knowing they buy the cheap and nasty stuff because it’s so cheap. You can’t pretend the law will stop people drinking but imo it will do two important things:

    1. They won’t necessarily buy the cheap and nasty cider; special k or white lightning because it won’t be cheap and nasty but just nasty. If anything it means the stuff they drink won’t necessarily by the nastiest chemical compound you can purchase in an off license.

    2. Because it’s not cheap as chips you may not buy as many cans as chips. I’ve worked with people who buy 20-30 cans a day. If it’s not the cheapest thing you can buy you might well buy less of it.

    Some people have reduced their intake through understanding why they drink and sheer control. Some because they realise tjeir own mortality. Some understand and despite working hard at it still fall off. Different things work for different people. This may not work for everyone but it may work for many

  34. That’s fair enough – I guess I can’t argue with your first-hand experience when I’ve personally only really heard other people’s stories. Still feels like kicking people when they’re down, though. It would be nice to offer them carrots not sticks, but like you say it’s not either/or.

    On point (1): Sure, Special Brew & co are nobody’s idea of a refined tipple, but do they actually contain dodgy chemicals? They’re still drinks made by real companies that have gone through all the EU standards. We’re not talking prohibition-era moonshine here.

    On (2): I guess it depends on the individual, maybe it could help some people, though I do worry that some alcoholics could sacrifice things that they really shouldn’t be sacrificing (eg heating their homes) so they can keep up their drinking. Drink doesn’t encourage rational decision making, even in people who only drink recreationally, let alone those whose lives have been destroyed by it.

    Either way, I think we are agreed that this is not a problem that MAP could solve on its own, it would have to be part of a serious government programme, allied with plenty of willpower from thousands of individuals. It would be a mammoth task for any government, never mind the current shambles at Westminster.

  35. I’ve always been amazed at how functioning an alcoholic can be. If they have a card to top up their metre they always will. If there is a real concern about managing their money some may have appointees and they will manage their bills. Some may still choose not to turn on their heating but that’s because they are stringent

  36. Steffan Lewis, Plaid Cymru AM for the South-West region, has died.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-42455956

    He was just 34.

  37. Very Sad news. Far too young.
    RIP.

  38. Wales EU Poll by YouGov (Changes from 2014)
    Brexit Party – 33% (+33)
    Labour – 18% (-10)
    Plaid – 16% (+1)
    Lib Dem – 10% (+6)
    Green – 8% (+3)
    Con – 7% (-10%)
    Change UK – 4% (+4)
    UKIP – 3% (-25).

  39. 4 AMs have defected to the Brexit Party and Nigel Farage has appointed Mark Reckless as Group Leader.

  40. Prediction for the Wales region:

    Brex: 2
    Lab: 1
    PC: 1

  41. Welsh European Parliament voting intention: (You Gov)
    Brexit: 36%
    Plaid: 19%
    Labour: 15%
    Libdem: 10%
    Green: 8%
    CON: 7%
    UKIP: 2%
    CHUK: 2%

    If Labour falls by a further 3% it will be wiped out

    Increasing chance that Mark Reckless might become Welsh FM in 2021.

  42. I know I’m a bit bearish about the chances of progressive parties in the Euros, but you seemed convinced that Britain is on the precipice of fascism!

  43. Mark reckless is now part of the brexit party not Ukip.

  44. Welsh Polls (You Gov) – Jaw Dropping.
    Westminster
    Labour: 25%
    Brexit : 23%
    Conservative : 17%
    Plaid: 13%
    Libdem: 12%
    Green: 5%

    Assembly Constituency.
    Labour: 25%
    Plaid: 24%
    Brexit: 17%
    Conservatives : 17%
    Lib Dem 9%
    Green: 5%
    UKIP: 1%

    List :
    Brexit: 23%
    Plaid: 22%
    Labour : 21%
    Conservative : 12%,
    Green: 8%
    Libdem: 7%
    UKIP: 1%

  45. Here’s a weird thing. I think it’s reasonable to imagine that the Brexit Party is in a bubble at the moment, and bubbles burst. If this parliament runs its full five-year term, then you would hope that the political agenda had moved on and the Brexit Party would no longer be able to trade solely on The Will Of The People, and would have to reveal a proper manifesto, at which point it would stop being all things to all men and its vote share would drop precipitously.

    But Labour and other opposition parties are going to do everything they can to force a general election. They may soon succeed, and at that point the election will take on a rather different character in which Nigel Farage and his merry band of terrorism apologists may do pretty well.

    I don’t blame Labour for keeping pushing for a general election – surely any government would be better than the status quo – but there is a risk there, of letting some real poison into the House of Commons. But I only think that can happen if we have a general election before no-deal Brexit occurs at the end of October. After that, the Conservative Party will be destroyed anyway, and there wouldn’t be any point in Nigel Farage any more, so Labour would have a much clearer run. Though, they’d also have to pick up the pieces of the greatest political disaster since Suez… it’s all very complicated, isn’t it?

  46. ‘After that, the Conservative Party will be destroyed anyway, and there wouldn’t be any point in Nigel Farage any more, so Labour would have a much clearer run. Though, they’d also have to pick up the pieces of the greatest political disaster since Suez…’

    And just imagine the further havoc a dose of hardcore Corbynism would cause were such a scenario to occur

    But I don’t think it’s likely. The Conservative Party and its hardcore base of supporters won’t just disappear. Far more likely that it will split along ideological one nation, soft Brexit/blue collar no deal Brexit, with obviously the latter having won the day

    That could well be the beginning of the end for the Conservative Party – the centre-right, pro-business, pragmatic British party with a great record of winning general elections.

  47. Brexit Party expected to easily win here, followed by Plaid. Labour and Lib Dems neck and neck as to third and fourth.

  48. The Brexit Party has won Cardiff, Newcastle etc so increase in turnout wasn’t just Remainers – but clearly the Remain vote is split.

    Brexit P beating Labour in Wolvs, Sandwell, Durham, etc shows Lab losing some 2014 voters.

  49. Yeah. Cardiff might well be one of the lowest winning shares of the night on 21% for the Brexit Party.

  50. Brex: 32.5% – 2 Seats
    PC: 19.6% – 1 seat
    Lab: 15.3% – 1 seat
    LDem: 13.6% – 0 seats
    Con: 6.5% – 0 seats
    Grn: 6.3% – 0 seats
    UKIP: 3.3% – 0 seats.

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