Wales European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 206332 28.1% (+7.9%)
2. Nathan Gill (UKIP) 201983 27.6% (+14.8%)
3. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 127742 17.4% (-3.8%)
4. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 111864 15.3% (-3.3%)
. (Green) 33275 4.5% (-1%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 28930 3.9% (-6.7%)
. (BNP) 7655 1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 6633 0.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 4459 0.6% (-1.2%)
. (No2EU) 2803 0.4% (-0.9%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 1384 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
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Nathan Gill (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Formerly personal assistant to John Bufton MEP. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014
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Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
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Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 145193 21.2% (+1.8%)
2. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 138852 20.3% (-12.2%)
3. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 126702 18.5% (+1.1%)
4. John Bufton (UKIP) 87585 12.8% (+2.3%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 73082 10.7% (+0.2%)
. (Green) 38160 5.6% (+2%)
. (BNP) 37114 5.4% (+2.5%)
. (Christian) 13037 1.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 12402 1.8% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 8600 1.3% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 3793 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
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Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
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Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
portrait
John Bufton (UKIP) Born 1962, Llanidloes. Former care home manager. Former Powys councillor. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997 for the Referendum party, Ceredigion 2000 by-election, Monmouth 2005, North Wales 2007 Welsh elections for UKIP. MEP for Wales since 2009.
Comments - 139 Responses on “Europe Wales”
  1. Politicians can’t really win if merely pointing things out is labelled ‘patronising’ and any economic warnings are dismissed as ‘Project Fear’ and scaremongering.

  2. It was more that it was on a daily basis and the fact they should be grateful for it, than the list of ‘say’ a pavement or fountain which had been paid for (or public realm works to use municipal-ese)

  3. Fair enough.

  4. So Carwen Jones is calling for the treasury to refund Wales’s EU subsidies. He appears to be unaware that his nation voted to reject them!

    If the government merely spends the £350m per week on all the thing the EU was spending them on, then it’s not really “taking back control” is it?

  5. Polltroll- my exact point.

  6. As predicted as well Wales is nightmarish for both main parties. Lab obviously the biggest loser but Tories down three seats and 5 made much more marginal than their current equivalents.

  7. @rivers I don’t think 5/8 seats for the Tories are significantly worse than their predecessor seats:

    1)Conwy and Colwyn- haven’t done the mass but I don’t think it much worse for the Tories than its predecessors I seem to remember the last time they proposed this seat the Tories weren’t weakened significantly.
    2)South Clwyd and North Montgomeryshire – yes much worse but the Tories are massively aided by the fact Labour is nowhere in Montgomeryshire and the Lib Dems are nowhere in Clwyd.
    3)Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery – Probably better for the Tories than B&R
    4)South Pembrokeshire – losing parts of Carmarthenshire and gaining rural bits from Preseli Pembrokeshire will aid the Tories.
    5)Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan West – much better for the Tories obviously
    6)Vale of Glamorgan East – yes significantly worse
    7)Cardiff North – Again significantly worse (though the Lib Dem squeeze on the Tory vote in 2 wards complicates the picture slightly)
    8)Monmouthshire – Actually doesn’t look much worse really. Although it gains the Labour leaning town of Caldicot it also gains 2 reliably Tory Newport wards and loses Labour voting parts of Torfaen district.

    As for their targets.
    1)Gower and Swansea West – still winnable, I think Labour by less than ~2,000.
    2)Wrexham Maelor – better for the Tories Labour’s numerical majority (according to EC) drops to 1,247 from 1,831 (I presume % majority is now only 2% or 3% given the enlarged electorate).
    3)Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire – They are now surprisingly close to second.
    4)The two Flintshire seats probably remain roughly similar in difficulty to win as they are now.

  8. South Pembrokeshire=Tories are nowhere is rural Carmarthenshire tyre but neither were Labour and while it does gain some Tory bits from Preseli it picks up pretty much all of the Lab vote from Preseli in towns like Milford Haven and Haverfrodwest, everything aside from Fishguard. Haven’t worked it out yet but I’d be amazed if the Tory majority wasn’t lower here than in both the current Pembrokeshire seats.

    Re the two Flintshire seats Alyn and Deeside remains pretty much as is but Delyn becomes much better for Lab having picked up pretty much the entirety of the Lab vote from Vale of Clwyd in the from of Rhyl. this is undoubtedly Labs safest seat in North Wales now.

  9. Notional change from 2015 according to Anthony-

    LAB 18 (-7)
    CON 7 (-4)
    PC 3 (=)
    LD 1 (=)

    Very good for Plaid Cymru. Cardiff North becomes an ultra-marginal contest between Labour and the Conservatives (his notionals have Labour ahead by 0.5% of the vote here).

  10. Has anyone done an analysis of the likely inter party challenges for the new Welsh constituencies? I would have thought that this was mostly Labour but I could see 3 Conservatives in North Wales fighting a single seat and 2 Conservatives in Pembrokeshire fighting 1 seat. The likely contest between MP’s of different parties will also be interesting.

  11. YouGov Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 35% (-2)
    CON: 29% (+2)
    UKIP: 14% (+0)
    PC: 13% (+1)
    LDEM: 7% (+0)

    I cannot comment on how this result would take form on the provisional boundaries. On the current boundaries Electoral Calculus suggests that Ynys Mon would go Plaid.

  12. Mark Reckless AM has left UKIP and will take the Conservative Whip in the Assembly, after meeting Con Group Leader.

    Although apparently he’ll sit as an Independent AM for the time being as he hasn’t been re-admitted to the Tory Party by CCHQ.

  13. I didn’t realise defections were allowed on the party list?

  14. Happens in the European Parliament all the time.

    Nathan Gill was elected as UKIP in the Assembly but sits as an Independent and the Conservatives gained a seat from Plaid in 2008 in the Assembly too.

    The interesting thing will happen if the defector the resigns or dies (sorry to be morbid) the original party’s list will kick in and a replacement chosen from that.

  15. That seems nonsensical to me; in a list/PR vote it was clearly a vote for a party and not an individual so resigning the whip should mean having to resign the seat and a replacement coming from the party entitled to the seat

  16. It is nonsensical. It’s the reason why South Africa (which operates a list system at all levels) places tight restrictions on floor crossing.

  17. NTY UK: in fact – as others have suggested – it’s happened quite often with those on Lists, particularly MEPs.

    Saj Karim (LD > Con) in the North West and Amjad Bashir (UKIP > Con) are recent examples.

    Even worse was that it meant that Tory members were not given a say re Saj Karim in their all postal ballot, as he was regarded as a ‘sitting Conservative MEP.’

    Although as I said, in Reckless’s case he isn’t re-joining the Conservative Party (yet). He’s just taking their Whip in the Welsh Assembly. I’m unclear why some have said he’ll count as a Con AM (to make them the official Opposition).

    I think 3 or 4 NI AMs did so too in the previous session.

  18. Whether or not he is formally a Conservative, the leader of the Welsh Cons has welcomed Reckless back with open arms so it seems he will be, de facto, a Tory.

    This hasn’t gone down well with all Welsh Conservatives. Byron Davies, Con MP for Gower, isn’t very happy – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39513743?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=wales_politics&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=wales

    Remember Cameroon Tories really, really didn’t like Reckless (much more so than Carswell).

  19. ‘Remember Cameroon Tories really, really didn’t like Reckless (much more so than Carswell)’

    He always struck me as a bit of a joke figure tbh – and that seems to be how most of colleagues viewed him – both when he was a Tory and UKIP

    Not long after being elected in 2010 he was forced to apologised for missing a vote on the budget after being unable to handle his beers.

    Carswell was probably more of a pain in the arse to Cameron as a backbencher as he was more coherent and persistent in his attacks on the old government’s EU policy when sitting for the Tories, but many of the Cameroons were privately relieved when Reckless switched parties

    Unlike Neil Hamilton – who the less said about the better – Reckless has, as far as I;m aware, no Welsh connections so why he resurfaced there is a bit of a mystery

    I think the leader of the Welsh Conservatives might have some explaining to do

  20. The explanation is probably fairly simple – both the Tories and Plaid Cymru have 11 AMs so adding Reckless gives the former 12 and thus makes them the official opposition with all that that entails

  21. He’s sitting as an Ind though so the Con Group still has 11.

  22. His defection letter says he is joining the Conservative group and making them the second largest, thus the official opposition

  23. He’s sitting with them – in the same way UPUP MP Sir James Kilfedder sat with them and took the Tory Whip – but he is not ‘joining the Conservatives.’

    In fact having checked: he’s barred from doing so – having stood against the Party in 2015 – unless the Party Board votes to allow his readmission. Now that may happen before 2020, but given he’s a lawyer I assume he has checked the position and realises he can’t re-join today.

  24. This story has the potential to get more interesting.

    The Presiding Officer (speaker) accepted that he’s a member of the Conservative Group yesterday (Thursday): https://twitter.com/Owain_Phillips/status/849966549406556160

    He’s today (Friday) listed as an independent on the Assembly’s website: http://www.assembly.wales/en/memhome/Pages/MemberProfile.aspx?mid=5227

  25. CONSERVATIVE GAINS

    Likely
    Bridgend
    Clwyd South
    Newport West
    Wrexham

    Possible
    Alyn & Deeside
    Delyn
    Newport East
    Ynys Mon?! (could be a three-way fight here)

  26. Britain Elects reporting a YouGov poll with the Tories on 40% in Wales to 30% Lab, PC 13%, LD 8%, UKIP 6%

    I assume it’s legit, rather than a subsample of a national poll. If so, it’s staggering. Especially as Labour hasn’t lost a GE in Wales since Universal Sufferage (and tbh I doubt they will this time either, both in seats and votes)

  27. Inputing those figures into UKPR’s advanced swingometer leads to

    CON 21 (+10)
    LAB 15 (-10)
    PC 3 (nc)
    LDEM 1 (nc)

    The Conservatives would win a majority of Welsh seats for the first time ever.

  28. Tis legit haven’t seen the sample size but I assume it will be 1,000 odd unlike the subsamples which tend to be in the 100s. Would like to see some more polls to confirm the trend.

  29. The seats the Conservatives would gain on the basis of that poll would be:

    Alyn & Deeside
    Bridgend
    Cardiff South & Penarth
    Cardiff West
    Clwyd South
    Delyn
    Newport East
    Newport West
    Wrexham
    Ynys Mon

    40% would represent the highest ever Conservative vote share in Wales.

  30. I imagine Torfaen would get close on those figures also

  31. It is absolutely a legit poll. Of course it is only one poll from one pollster and polls have a margin of error. In truth, though, it is pretty much in line with the national trend, especially when you consider Wales had a very large number of UKIP voters which are the main driver of the recent further increase in the Tory share.

  32. Jack is absolutely right I’d be interested to see an England only poll since the moves have been big in Scotland and Wales

  33. Local Election Poll: LAB 28% (-9), CON 26 (+13), PC 19 (+2), UKIP 8 (+7), LD 7 (-1) OTH 12 (-10)

    Changes cf the 2012 locals (or 2013 in the case of Ynys Mon)

  34. Would like to see more regional polls actually.

    Yorkshire & The Humber region would be good, as well as the Midlands.

  35. Local election polls are very rare what a treat

  36. Remember the Tories won seats like Delyn, Newport West, Bridgend and Clwyd South West in the 1980s, although they never took the likes of Wrexham or Alyn & Deeside, which actually look like two of the easier gains on paper

    The Welsh certainly seem to be moving to the Right – Brexit, electing Neil Hamilton to the National Assembly etc

    More the fool them maybe – considering how much they got from the EU- but hey, facts are facts

  37. There used to be polling on the top 10 marginals before we had individual constituency polls

  38. I’m guessing the idea of 21 Tory seats (still don’t think it’ll be quite high tbh) is based on a uniform swing?

    I’d assume that the Labour vote would probably hold up better in Cardiff than elsewhere, but with bigger swings and maybe even a shock result or two in the valleys?

    But then I thought the Lib Dems would hold 28 seats in 2015 and Nuttall would win in Stoke Central so I guess I’m rubbish at predicting stuff like this! haha

  39. Mike – to be fair Paddy thought they had even after Polls had closed in 2015 so you weren’t alone.

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