Wales European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 206332 28.1% (+7.9%)
2. Nathan Gill (UKIP) 201983 27.6% (+14.8%)
3. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 127742 17.4% (-3.8%)
4. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 111864 15.3% (-3.3%)
. (Green) 33275 4.5% (-1%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 28930 3.9% (-6.7%)
. (BNP) 7655 1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 6633 0.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 4459 0.6% (-1.2%)
. (No2EU) 2803 0.4% (-0.9%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 1384 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
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Nathan Gill (UKIP) Educated at Coleg Menai. Formerly personal assistant to John Bufton MEP. Contested Ynys Mon 2013 Assembly by-election. MEP for Wales since 2014
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Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
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Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Kay Swinburne (Conservative) 145193 21.2% (+1.8%)
2. Derek Vaughan (Labour) 138852 20.3% (-12.2%)
3. Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) 126702 18.5% (+1.1%)
4. John Bufton (UKIP) 87585 12.8% (+2.3%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 73082 10.7% (+0.2%)
. (Green) 38160 5.6% (+2%)
. (BNP) 37114 5.4% (+2.5%)
. (Christian) 13037 1.9% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 12402 1.8% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 8600 1.3% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 3793 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Kay Swinburne (Conservative) Born 1968. Educated at Llandysul Grammar. Health economist and former investment banker. Former Hereford councillor. MEP for Wales since 2009.
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Derek Vaughan (Labour) Born Aberfan. Educated at Swansea University. Neath Port Talbot councillor 1995-2009, council leader 2004-2009. MEP for Wales since 2009
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Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru) Born 1959, Rhondda. Educated at University of Wales. Former regional organiser for the infertility support network. Former Rhondda councillor. MEP for Wales since 1999. Contested Rhondda in 2007 Welsh Assembly elections.
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John Bufton (UKIP) Born 1962, Llanidloes. Former care home manager. Former Powys councillor. Contested Montgomeryshire 1997 for the Referendum party, Ceredigion 2000 by-election, Monmouth 2005, North Wales 2007 Welsh elections for UKIP. MEP for Wales since 2009.
Comments - 111 Responses on “Europe Wales”
  1. Politicians can’t really win if merely pointing things out is labelled ‘patronising’ and any economic warnings are dismissed as ‘Project Fear’ and scaremongering.

  2. It was more that it was on a daily basis and the fact they should be grateful for it, than the list of ‘say’ a pavement or fountain which had been paid for (or public realm works to use municipal-ese)

  3. Fair enough.

  4. So Carwen Jones is calling for the treasury to refund Wales’s EU subsidies. He appears to be unaware that his nation voted to reject them!

    If the government merely spends the £350m per week on all the thing the EU was spending them on, then it’s not really “taking back control” is it?

  5. Polltroll- my exact point.

  6. As predicted as well Wales is nightmarish for both main parties. Lab obviously the biggest loser but Tories down three seats and 5 made much more marginal than their current equivalents.

  7. @rivers I don’t think 5/8 seats for the Tories are significantly worse than their predecessor seats:

    1)Conwy and Colwyn- haven’t done the mass but I don’t think it much worse for the Tories than its predecessors I seem to remember the last time they proposed this seat the Tories weren’t weakened significantly.
    2)South Clwyd and North Montgomeryshire – yes much worse but the Tories are massively aided by the fact Labour is nowhere in Montgomeryshire and the Lib Dems are nowhere in Clwyd.
    3)Brecon, Radnor and Montgomery – Probably better for the Tories than B&R
    4)South Pembrokeshire – losing parts of Carmarthenshire and gaining rural bits from Preseli Pembrokeshire will aid the Tories.
    5)Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan West – much better for the Tories obviously
    6)Vale of Glamorgan East – yes significantly worse
    7)Cardiff North – Again significantly worse (though the Lib Dem squeeze on the Tory vote in 2 wards complicates the picture slightly)
    8)Monmouthshire – Actually doesn’t look much worse really. Although it gains the Labour leaning town of Caldicot it also gains 2 reliably Tory Newport wards and loses Labour voting parts of Torfaen district.

    As for their targets.
    1)Gower and Swansea West – still winnable, I think Labour by less than ~2,000.
    2)Wrexham Maelor – better for the Tories Labour’s numerical majority (according to EC) drops to 1,247 from 1,831 (I presume % majority is now only 2% or 3% given the enlarged electorate).
    3)Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire – They are now surprisingly close to second.
    4)The two Flintshire seats probably remain roughly similar in difficulty to win as they are now.

  8. South Pembrokeshire=Tories are nowhere is rural Carmarthenshire tyre but neither were Labour and while it does gain some Tory bits from Preseli it picks up pretty much all of the Lab vote from Preseli in towns like Milford Haven and Haverfrodwest, everything aside from Fishguard. Haven’t worked it out yet but I’d be amazed if the Tory majority wasn’t lower here than in both the current Pembrokeshire seats.

    Re the two Flintshire seats Alyn and Deeside remains pretty much as is but Delyn becomes much better for Lab having picked up pretty much the entirety of the Lab vote from Vale of Clwyd in the from of Rhyl. this is undoubtedly Labs safest seat in North Wales now.

  9. Notional change from 2015 according to Anthony-

    LAB 18 (-7)
    CON 7 (-4)
    PC 3 (=)
    LD 1 (=)

    Very good for Plaid Cymru. Cardiff North becomes an ultra-marginal contest between Labour and the Conservatives (his notionals have Labour ahead by 0.5% of the vote here).

  10. Has anyone done an analysis of the likely inter party challenges for the new Welsh constituencies? I would have thought that this was mostly Labour but I could see 3 Conservatives in North Wales fighting a single seat and 2 Conservatives in Pembrokeshire fighting 1 seat. The likely contest between MP’s of different parties will also be interesting.

  11. YouGov Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 35% (-2)
    CON: 29% (+2)
    UKIP: 14% (+0)
    PC: 13% (+1)
    LDEM: 7% (+0)

    I cannot comment on how this result would take form on the provisional boundaries. On the current boundaries Electoral Calculus suggests that Ynys Mon would go Plaid.

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