South West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. William Dartmouth (UKIP) 484184 32.3% (+10.2%)
2. Ashley Fox (Conservative) 433151 28.9% (-1.4%)
3. Julia Reid (UKIP) (242092)
4. Julie Girling (Conservative) (216576)
5. Clare Moody (Labour) 206124 13.7% (+6.1%)
6. Molly Scott Cato (Green) 166447 11.1% (+1.8%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 160376 10.7% (-6.5%)
. (Independence from Europe) 23169 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 15081 1% (-0.6%)
. (BNP) 10910 0.7% (-3.2%)
Current sitting MEPs
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William Dartmouth (UKIP) Born 1949. As the Earl of Dartmouth he was a Conservative member of the House of Lords until the exclusion of hereditary peers. Defected to UKIP in 2007. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Ashley Fox (Conservative) Born 1969. Educated at the Kings School, Worcester and Bristol Polytechnic. Solicitor. Contested Bath 2001. Bristol councillor 2002-2009. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Julia Reid (UKIP) Born in London. Educated at John Bentley School and Bath University. Research biochemist. Contested South West Region 2009, Chippenham 2010. Former member of the SDP. MEP for the South West since 2014
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Julie Girling (Conservative) Former Cotswold District councillor. Former Gloucestershire County councillor. Contested South West in 2004 European elections. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Clare Moody (Labour) Trade union officer. Contested South West region 2004 European elections, Salisbury 2005, Wiltshire police commissioner election 2012. MEP for the South West since 2014
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Molly Scott Cato (Green) Born 1963, Wales. Educated at Oxford University. University professor. Stroud councillor since 2011. Contested Preseli Pembrokeshire 1997, 2005, South West region 2009 European election. MEP for the South West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Giles Chichester (Conservative) 468742 30.2% (-1.3%)
2. Trevor Coleman (UKIP) 341845 22.1% (-0.5%)
3. Graham Watson (Liberal Democrat) 266253 17.2% (-1.2%)
4. Julie Girling (Conservative) (234371)
5. William Dartmouth (UKIP) (170923)
6. Ashley Fox (Conservative) (156247)
. (Green) 144179 9.3% (+2.1%)
. (Labour) 118716 7.7% (-6.8%)
. (BNP) 60889 3.9% (+0.9%)
. (Pensioners) 37785 2.4% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 25313 1.6% (n/a)
. (Chrisian) 21329 1.4% (n/a)
. (Mebyon Kernow) 14922 1% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 10033 0.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9741 0.6% (n/a)
. Katie Hopkins (Independent) 8971 0.6% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 7292 0.5% (n/a)
. (Fair Pay Fair Trade) 7151 0.5% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 5758 0.4% (n/a)
. (Wai D Your Decision) 789 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Giles Chichester (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Formerly worked for his family business, publishing maps and guides. First elected as MEP for Devon and East Plymouth 1994. MEP for the South West since 1999. Former leader of the Conservative group in the European parliament, he stood down in 2008 after it was revealed he had claimed Parliamentary expenses for a family business. He was later cleared of a conflict of interest by the European Parliament.
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Trevor Coleman (UKIP) Born 1941, St Breward. Former police officer and television script advisor. MEP for the South West since 2008, suceeding Graham Booth upon his retirement. Contested Teignbridge 2005.
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Graham Watson (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at City of Bath Boys School and Heriot-Watt University. Prior to his elected worked as a university administrator, head of David Steel’s office and for HSBC. First elected as MEP for Somerset and North Devon 1994. Leader of the Liberal group in the European Parliament 2002-2009. Knighted in 2011.
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Julie Girling (Conservative) Former Cotswold District councillor. Former Gloucestershire County councillor. Contested South West in 2004 European elections. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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William Dartmouth (UKIP) Born 1949. As the Earl of Dartmouth he was a Conservative member of the House of Lords until the exclusion of hereditary peers. Defected to UKIP in 2007. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Ashley Fox (Conservative) Born 1969. Educated at the Kings School, Worcester and Bristol Polytechnic. Solicitor. Contested Bath 2001. Bristol councillor 2002-2009. MEP for South West England since 2009.


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Comments - 238 Responses on “Europe South West”
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  1. Labour candidates:

    Clare Moody (Wilthshire PCC candidate, 2005 Salisbury candidate)
    Ann Reeder (works at LGiU (Local Government Information Unit))
    Jude Robinson (2010 candidate in Camborne and Redruth)

    Junab Ali (Swindon Cllr)
    Glyn Ford (former MEP)
    Hadleigh Roberts (Vice Chair of Bath CLP hadleighroberts.com/ )

    Ranking will be done this summer. Top spot will go to a woman and then they will proceed with a gender zipped list.

  2. Jude Robinson is also a Cornwall councillor, winning back a seat in a byelection and is defending her seat.

  3. Not sure what the order will be here, but seats will be: 2 Con, 2 UKIP, 1 Lib, 1 Lab

  4. Jude Robinson is no longer a Cornwall councillor, having lost her seat to the Conservatives!

  5. If Cons got 3 seats on 30% in 2009, surely UKIP could rise from 22% to do the same in 2014?

  6. It was a fortuitous result which got the Conservatives three seats on 30% – the Greens and Labour were a bit under 10%, and the Lib Dems a bit under 20%.

    To take three seats, UKIP would need to achieve two of these four:

    * More than three times the Green vote (quite likely)
    * More than three times the Labour vote (very unlikely)
    * More than three times the Lib Dem vote (unlikely)
    * More than 1.5 times the Conservative vote (possible, but I’d bet against it).

  7. WoD – it is very unlikely that Labour will overtake the Libdems here, as you seem to suggest. I agree that UKIP will not take 3 seats. On a share of 30% (reasonable estimate), we would need Labour to remain under 10%, which isn’t going to happen (not much doubt that the Conservatives will easily top 20%).

  8. Conservative candidates (Fox and Girling will be the top 2)

    Ashley Fox MEP – Stood in Bristol NW 2001, MEP since 2009
    Julie Girling MEP – MEP since 2009

    Georgina Butler – Richmond Upon Thames councillor
    Don Collier – former Poole councillor, stood SW England in 2009 Euros
    James Cracknell – Former Olympic rower
    Melissa Maynard – E Hants councillor
    Virginia Morris – Richmond upon Thames councillor, stood in Oxford E 2005, W Ham 2010
    Sophia Swire – Businesswoman and sister of Foreign Office Minister Hugo Swire.

  9. Conservative list

    1 Ashley Fox MEP
    2 Julie Girling MEP
    3 James Cracknell
    4 Georgina Butler
    5 Sophie Swire
    6 Melissa Maynard

  10. Labour list

    1 Clare Moody
    2. Glyn Ford
    3 Ann Reeder
    4 Hadleigh Roberts
    5 Jude Robinson
    6 Junab Ali

  11. UKIP candidates:

    Gawain Towler – Stood Glasgow Kelvin 2001 (for Conservatives), Dorset N 2010, UKIP’s press officer
    Julia Reid – Stood Chippenham 2010, candidate there 2015
    Tony McIntyre – Stood Taunton Deane 2010, chair UKIP South West
    William Dartmouth – MEP since 2009
    Keith Crawford – Stood Exeter 2010, Devon county council elections 2013
    Robert Smith – Stood Cornwall & Devon PCC election 2012

  12. UKIP 31.1 (2)
    CON 23.4 (2)
    LAB 13.6 (1)
    LD 12.9 (1)
    GRN 11.3 (0)

  13. OTH 7.7

  14. Predcting the breakdown of MEPs is easier in this region than others. 2:2:1:1 Ukip, Conservatives, Labour then Lib Dems

    Labour may beat the Lib Dems here.

  15. Lib Dem candidates:

    1. Sir Graham Watson – MEP since 1994
    2. Kay Barnard – stood Bristol S 2005, farmer
    3. Dr Brian Mathew – stood N Somerset 2010
    4. Andrew Wigley – worked for Graham Watson
    5. Jay Risbridger – chair Bath & NE Somerset Lib Dems

  16. UKIP ranking

    1 William Dartmouth 16,796
    2 Julia Reid 11,155
    3 Gawain Towler 6,174
    4 Tony McIntyre 4,391
    5 Robert Smith 4,366
    6 Keith Crawford 2,856

  17. 3 UKIP, 1 CON, 1 LAB, 1 LD

  18. Gloy

    Perhaps
    It could happen if UKIP got around 38% of the vote
    and there were several parties below around 5%.

  19. Obviously it won’t happen, but actually 111’s scenario would arise if UKIP got 1.5x any other party. E.g. UKIP on 30, Con, Lab and Lib all between 10 and 20, with everyone else <10 would produce his result. Pipe dream of course, but not quite as outlandish as you're suggesting.

  20. The SW will be quite intriguing. Labour was in the pits in 2009 here and presumably and they couldn’t do any worse here.

    If there’s 6 MEPs here, I think the breakdown could be:

    2 CON
    2 UKIP
    1 LAB
    1 LD

    Labour’s vote in Bristol, Exeter and Plymouth will probably increase. The challenge for them will be how much they can win in SW Gloucestershire, Swindon, Gloucester and Stroud.

  21. I think it is a reasonable certainty that UKIP will come top with 2 MEPs the cons second with 2 MEPs and Lab and LibDem on 1 each..

    The real challenge is predicting who comes 3rd in share of vote.. The libs should as after all this is their strongest region but if labour are to win a decent majority in 2015 they need to start gathering more votes in Exeter and PLymouth which could see them beat the liberals…

    A lot depends on how well labour do in marginal places like Swindon and Stroud- more importantly how the Labour Party gets it’s vote out here in a low turnout election

  22. Is this a rare example of some territory that was in a Lib Dem or Labour seat in 1992 (i.e. Cheltenham 1992)
    and in a Tory seat in 1997 (and 2001/5).?
    That built up development north of Cheltenham – I’m not sure what seat it used to be in before this one,
    but Cheltenham was a larger seat in 1992.

    I was looking at this area quite a bit given the recent flooding.

  23. Sorry – wrong thread – please ignore

  24. Nice to see you back with us though Joe, even so.

  25. Does anyone know which counties are included in the South West Euro region, please?

  26. Counties: Dorset, Gloucestershire, Devon, Cornwall, Somerset.

    Unitary Authorities: Bristol, South Gloucestershire, Wiltshire, Swindon, Bath and NE Somerset, N Somerset, Plymouth.

  27. Thanks. It seems to me that Labour are almost certain to come third here and win at least one seat, does anyone think it possible the party could pick up two seats?

    I accept that the Proportional Change Hypothesis might not work in a region like the South West, but the latest Euro election polls are giving Labour nationwide increases of around 15-20% compared to what they polled in 2009.

    This could, in theory, put them in the 20%-25% bracket in the South West. Last time UKIP comfortably secured a second seat on a 22% showing.

    It would behove Labour to explain to electors in no-hope places like Truro, Devon North etc., that a vote for them would not be wasted this time.

  28. Cornwall is technically a unitary authority.

  29. Thanks Andy, should have remembered that.

    I’m confident that they can top the polls in Bristol, Exeter and Plymouth (although the Tories and UKIP should run them close there) and produce a good showing in Stroud, Swindon and maybe Gloucester. All of those should ensure something close to 20% of the SW vote. Because of this being voted on a proportional basis, I think UKIP can actually top the polls in the region.

  30. “I’m confident that they…”

    They meaning Labour.

  31. And Gibraltar?

    Any word of how UKIP are doing in Gibraltar?

  32. Thanks for those responses.

    So does anyone think it is realistic for Labour to hope for two seats in this region or is that a pipe dream?

  33. I think one is probably the limit of their ambitions here.

  34. I am an 18yo first time voter who essentially wants to maximise the libdem/lab/green vote. Given this, which party do you think I should actually choose, to prevent the Tories/UKIP winning more than 2 seats each?

  35. Not Green.

  36. Agreed, here probably Lib Dem, as their seat is the most touch and go.

  37. As one vote has never decided the election here you might as well go for the party that represents your political beliefs best.

    If your only priority is to maximise the anti right vote then the Liberal Democrats will probably be best placed to deny the Conservatives/UKIP a 3rd seat, although Labour may just overtake them. The greens will be precisely nowhere and will probably fall back a bit compared to last time.

  38. I’m not sure I agree that the Greens will fall back. Surely if people aren’t ‘actively’ looking to vote Labour, the Greens can take from Labour and of course the Lib Dems.

    In 2009 the Greens were close to Labour in Bristol, roundly beat them in Wiltshire and Cornwall, and won double the Labour vote in many smaller contituencies such as Teignbridge, South Hams and the Mendips. And their vote increased despite a poor showing in 2004. See the full breakdown of the 2009 election here: http://www.exeter.gov.uk/CHttpHandler.ashx?id=12050&p=0

    On that basis, I predict Con 2 – UKIP 2 – LD 1 – Grn 1

  39. Don’t be utterly daft.

    Labour are 20% higher in the polls than they were in 2009.

  40. No they’re not. Don’t be utterly unfactual.

  41. Well whatever the difference is, Labour has quite clearly made up ground in the South West and, whatever happens, are certainly at no risk of falling behind the Greens.

    On the flip side, to Robin Hood, we won’t be getting 2 seats here unfortunately. 1 will be enough of an ask.

  42. I still think Greens will be well behind Labour based on current polls – showing they will get similar vote share to 2009 – but if the increased publicity during the campaign ups their vote on 2009, could be a 3-way fight for 3rd spot in S-W.

  43. As it is, I agree with the consensus here that it’ll be 2 UKIP, 2 Con, 1 LD, and 1 Labour.

  44. I disagree, FE. I do believe they’ll make up what sod-them-all voters they’ll lose from 2009, and largely hold their own. Nevertheless, I doubt we’ll see the Liberal Democrats falling far enough, and Labour rising small enough, for the Greens to seriously compete for a seat.

  45. And where does this faith among Greens, that they’re in for a surge in publicity, come from?

    Fact is, the media spotlight tends only to have room for one party on the rise, and UKIP is hogging that.

    The biggest problem for the Greens since 2010 is they’ve been unable to capitalise on their genuine success in getting an MP. Both through incompetence (their leader really is poor), and because UKIP have utterly pushed them aside as the party that’s challenging the establishment.

  46. I can’t speak for the faith of the Greens, but it would be a fact they get more exposure (leaflets / local press / towncentres / doorknockiing) during an actual campaign (though not necessarily at a national level, as you rightly say).

  47. Has Labour ever held an EU seat in the SW?

    I am just wondering where the ‘sod-you-all’ voters fleeing the Lib-Dems might end up.

    If UKIP don’t gain enough for three seats at the expense of the Conservatives, then there is one seat left after the LD take one on a reduced vote.

    All else equal, Labour would have to double their vote in Bristol and Plymouth to make beating the Greens a sure thing. But there’s a lot more to the SW than these cities, and the Greens are matched or beat Labour in a lot of these areas in 2009.

  48. If the South England numbers from http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/v1aduveoca/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-300414-EU-Why-Vote-UKIP.pdf represent the SW exactly, then after 5 rounds UKIP and CON take 2, LAB take 1, and the reduced proportions are UKIP 11 CON 9 LAB 10 LIB 10. So it looks like a bump in LIB votes is the best chance to deny UKIP 3 seats – remember that LAB already have 1 seat at this round, so they’d need twice as many votes to close the gap.

    If you imagine these amalgamated numbers might move according to the difference in 2009 voting pattern between SW and SE, then that increases the UKIP share, but it would also increase the LIB share, and that moves the sixth round LIB share 3 times faster than the UKIP share.

  49. UKIP: 4 seats
    CON: 1 seat
    LAB: 1 seat

    The Labour vote will rise by more than the average here, allowing them to take the Lib Dem seat. UKIP could reach over 40% here just like in the East of England.

  50. While the SW has strong UKIP support (22.1% versus 16.5% nationally in 2009), I think it would struggle to reach 40%.

    UKIP can’t take from Labour as Labour are almost a political non-entity in the SW, and there is a limit to the number of Conservative votes that are willing to be dipped in purple blood. Where are the rest coming from? New voters?

    Also, I’d be interested to hear the reasons why you think the Labour vote will rise by more than average here.

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