South West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. William Dartmouth (UKIP) 484184 32.3% (+10.2%)
2. Ashley Fox (Conservative) 433151 28.9% (-1.4%)
3. Julia Reid (UKIP) (242092)
4. Julie Girling (Conservative) (216576)
5. Clare Moody (Labour) 206124 13.7% (+6.1%)
6. Molly Scott Cato (Green) 166447 11.1% (+1.8%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 160376 10.7% (-6.5%)
. (Independence from Europe) 23169 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 15081 1% (-0.6%)
. (BNP) 10910 0.7% (-3.2%)
Current sitting MEPs
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William Dartmouth (UKIP) Born 1949. As the Earl of Dartmouth he was a Conservative member of the House of Lords until the exclusion of hereditary peers. Defected to UKIP in 2007. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Ashley Fox (Conservative) Born 1969. Educated at the Kings School, Worcester and Bristol Polytechnic. Solicitor. Contested Bath 2001. Bristol councillor 2002-2009. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Julia Reid (UKIP) Born in London. Educated at John Bentley School and Bath University. Research biochemist. Contested South West Region 2009, Chippenham 2010. Former member of the SDP. MEP for the South West since 2014
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Julie Girling (Conservative) Former Cotswold District councillor. Former Gloucestershire County councillor. Contested South West in 2004 European elections. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Clare Moody (Labour) Trade union officer. Contested South West region 2004 European elections, Salisbury 2005, Wiltshire police commissioner election 2012. MEP for the South West since 2014
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Molly Scott Cato (Green) Born 1963, Wales. Educated at Oxford University. University professor. Stroud councillor since 2011. Contested Preseli Pembrokeshire 1997, 2005, South West region 2009 European election. MEP for the South West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Giles Chichester (Conservative) 468742 30.2% (-1.3%)
2. Trevor Coleman (UKIP) 341845 22.1% (-0.5%)
3. Graham Watson (Liberal Democrat) 266253 17.2% (-1.2%)
4. Julie Girling (Conservative) (234371)
5. William Dartmouth (UKIP) (170923)
6. Ashley Fox (Conservative) (156247)
. (Green) 144179 9.3% (+2.1%)
. (Labour) 118716 7.7% (-6.8%)
. (BNP) 60889 3.9% (+0.9%)
. (Pensioners) 37785 2.4% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 25313 1.6% (n/a)
. (Chrisian) 21329 1.4% (n/a)
. (Mebyon Kernow) 14922 1% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 10033 0.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9741 0.6% (n/a)
. Katie Hopkins (Independent) 8971 0.6% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 7292 0.5% (n/a)
. (Fair Pay Fair Trade) 7151 0.5% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 5758 0.4% (n/a)
. (Wai D Your Decision) 789 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Giles Chichester (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Formerly worked for his family business, publishing maps and guides. First elected as MEP for Devon and East Plymouth 1994. MEP for the South West since 1999. Former leader of the Conservative group in the European parliament, he stood down in 2008 after it was revealed he had claimed Parliamentary expenses for a family business. He was later cleared of a conflict of interest by the European Parliament.
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Trevor Coleman (UKIP) Born 1941, St Breward. Former police officer and television script advisor. MEP for the South West since 2008, suceeding Graham Booth upon his retirement. Contested Teignbridge 2005.
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Graham Watson (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at City of Bath Boys School and Heriot-Watt University. Prior to his elected worked as a university administrator, head of David Steel’s office and for HSBC. First elected as MEP for Somerset and North Devon 1994. Leader of the Liberal group in the European Parliament 2002-2009. Knighted in 2011.
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Julie Girling (Conservative) Former Cotswold District councillor. Former Gloucestershire County councillor. Contested South West in 2004 European elections. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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William Dartmouth (UKIP) Born 1949. As the Earl of Dartmouth he was a Conservative member of the House of Lords until the exclusion of hereditary peers. Defected to UKIP in 2007. MEP for South West England since 2009.
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Ashley Fox (Conservative) Born 1969. Educated at the Kings School, Worcester and Bristol Polytechnic. Solicitor. Contested Bath 2001. Bristol councillor 2002-2009. MEP for South West England since 2009.


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Comments - 148 Responses on “Europe South West”
  1. It will be quite a good night for the Tories if they beat Labour into second place, but it’s going to be very close.

  2. There was a time when it looked like the Tories would get less than 20% 1 seat in the East, South East, East Midlands, West Midlands, and South West were possibly saved by the sudden recovery in Tory fortunes.

  3. Vote share results (with my predictions from last week 🙂 ):

    UKIP 32.3 (30%)
    Conservatives 28.9 (22%)
    Labour 13.75 (13.5%)
    Green 11.1 (12.5%)
    Liberal Democrats 10.7 (11.5%)
    BNP 0.7 (1.5%)

    Cheers all

  4. Where did that Green support in the South West come from? Surprised that they secured a seat there. Stroud, Bristol and an odd pocket of Totnes are AFAIK their main sources of support in the region. Either enough ex-Lib Dems backed them or they won some non-voters (but not on the level of UKIP of course).

  5. So, it was the SouthWest where the Green Party made a gain! After sucessive Euro elections stuck on 2MEPs and agonising near-misses in a number of regions last time, as a Green it is such a relief to see a gain.

  6. Re 111 your predictions were always wildly off fe mark which has been proven to be the case in all regions you predicted- I hope this has taught you to tone down the conservative doomsday bit you always peddle whilst claiming to be a Tory supporter…

    Re Ben foley- this was a very suprising gain and in a way the greens benefitted from an independence from Europe who (if you assume that most of their votes would have gone to UKIP) prevented UKIP taking the last seat here and giving it to the greens which I don’t think I ever expected

  7. Last time round the Green Party had unlucky near-miss after unlucky near-miss, including an ‘Animals’ candidate that could well have prevented a Green gain in much the same way. Greens deserved some luck this time round.

  8. Some of us predicted Green could make a gain here 🙂

  9. I suspect a fair bit of the Green vote came from former Lib Dem voters – both the sandals element and part of the anti-everything component of their support (which is large and a touch unpredictable).

  10. Clive Gropecock (a joke name, surely?) insisted that Labour would only poll 12% in this region and I challenged him on this.

    Well, he has been proved wrong – we polled 14%!

    And yes, I know, I was wrong too – I thought we might get 18% (but that was on the basis of us doing as well as our 28% nationwide opinion poll average, rather than the 25% we actually did get).

    Egg yolk on faces all round.

    Still, glad we got our seat back. 🙂

  11. ah yes, coming from a proud Cornishman. It remains to be seen how worrying these results really are from the point of view of the Labour or Conservative parties.

  12. So it happened pretty much as I predicted on the 22nd – Lib Dems lost enough votes, and enough of those went to the Greens, to switch that seat over.
    As someone who had voted LibDem (and before that SDP) for 30 years – but neither sandal-wearing (though environmentally concerned as all educated people should be) nor “anti-everything” – it saddens me, but what I AM “anti” is the breaking of a specific signed pledge when circumstances would have allowed it to be fulfilled (the LDs negotiated an opt-out on tuition fees but chose not to exercise it). A new leadership may win me, and many others, back, but it would have to be someone whose hands were clean of that huge deception.

  13. “what I AM “anti” is the breaking of a specific signed pledge when circumstances would have allowed it to be fulfilled (the LDs negotiated an opt-out on tuition fees but chose not to exercise it).”

    LOL

    The cabinet minister responsible for tuition fees was Vince Cable. Are you seriously suggesting that he should have voted against or abstained on his own policy? And that that would have made the Lib Dems look credible?

    Such a large part of the Lib Dem voter base pre-2010 was “anti everything” that the Lib Dems would still be in this situation now regardless of tuition fees. If they hold their nerve their long term reward will be a voter base, albeit a smaller one, which actually believes in something. If UKIP drag Cameron to the right and Labour continue their drift to the statist left there will be a space in the centre right for an economically liberal, socially liberal and cautiously pro-European party.

  14. The problem for the Lib Dems is that the core committed voter base for ‘liberalism’, either of the 19th century type or the social liberal type just isn’t very large (and overlaps with the other parties to some extent).

    That is exactly why they have tried over the years to build a coalition of various other groups – students, disaffected left wingers, ‘celtic’ particularists, local single-issue groups etc etc.

    But such coalitions can never hold indefinitely – actually it is remarkable that the one which is now collapsing has held for as long as it has.

  15. Yes, one of the ways the LDs got outflanked in the coalition negotiations was taking on the poisoned chalice of Universities. But no, of course I wouldn’t have expected Cable to vote against his own policy – but if it WAS his policy, couldn’t he have simply not put it forward? What would the Tories have done then?
    I believe a lot of people in this country are natural “liberals”, but a party based on individual decisions and personal responsibility is always going to be harder to manage, and harder to raise funds for, than one openly dedicated to the interests of big business, or one apparently working for workers’ mass interests (especially if that one also panders to big business on the side).
    And if there is an “anti” party, surely it’s the one whose policies are anti-EU, anti-immigration, anti-progress (on women’s an minority rights). And the only party LESS liberal than that is the BNP.

  16. “a party based on individual decisions and personal responsibility is always going to be harder to manage, and harder to raise funds for, than one openly dedicated to the interests of big business, or one apparently working for workers’ mass interests”

    If the Tories drift towards advocating exit from the EU then the Lib Dems might find it much easier to raise funds from big business.

    I think Runnymede is right that the market for a properly liberal party might not be that big but it doesn’t mean there isn’t an opportunity. What is dead is the idea that the Lib Dems can be some kind of protest party situated to the left of Labour.

  17. The profile on the south west says the lib dem has a seat, as does the London one.

    Yet the liberal Democrats only have one EU seat?

  18. Robbie, the sole LD MEP is in the South East Catherine Bearder.

  19. Gibraltar was one of just 4 authorities to vote Liberal Democrat in the 2014 EU election: likely as a result of their distinctly Anglo-European culture.

  20. It had a 42% Con->LD swing, better than anything the SNP managed this election. Just a shame this wasn’t replicated elsewhere!!

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2014_%28Gibraltar%29

  21. I wonder what the reason for that was?

  22. The Wikipedia article suggests that Graham Watson took a particular interest in Gibraltar, and that the Lib Dems were the only party who had someone from Gibraltar as one of their candidates.

  23. I’d also imagine that the ‘Party of In’ campaign went down quite a bit better there.

  24. Is Gibraltar getting to vote in the Euro-referendum?

  25. I don’t understand. According to this site, the LDs have two MEPs in the South East alone… one here, one in London…

    Is this just outdated or shume other mishtake?

  26. I’d imagine it’s just outdated

  27. Oops, should probably have posted this here:

    New Gibraltar poll – unclear whether properly sampled or ‘voodoo’ (http://chronicle.gi/2016/04/gibraltar-will-vote-to-remain-in-eu-poll/):
    Remain 88
    Leave 8
    Don’t know 3

  28. 64% turnout in Gibraltar at 6pm local time according to a Gibraltar based Journalist.

  29. Gary J – not quite true.

    There was a separate Gibraltar Bill/Act in order to enable this.

  30. Notionals for Bath 2015

    Conservative: 21,952 (38.55%)
    Liberal Democrat: 15,242 (26.77%)
    Labour: 8,791 (15.44%)
    Green: 6,005 (10.54%)
    UKIP: 4,388 (7.70%)
    Other: 563 (0.98%)

    Turnout: 56,934 (77.37%) Majority: 6,710 (11.78%)

  31. Bristol West notionals

    Labour: 19,798 (34.58%)
    Green: 14,997 (26.20%)
    Liberal Democrat: 11,220 (19.60%)
    Conservative: 9,261 (16.17%)
    UKIP: 1,715 (2.99%)
    Other: 248 (0.043%)

    Turnout: 57,239 (77.72%)

    Majority: 4,801 (8.38%)

  32. Lab are lucky that the Greens do so well in Easton as well, its removal hit them both equally.

  33. North East Somerset

    Conservative: 28,299 (51.48%)
    Labour: 11,515 (20.95%)
    Liberal Democrat: 6,155 (11.19%)
    UKIP: 5,815 (10.57%)
    Green: 3,180 (5.78%)

    Majority: 16,784 (30.53%)
    Turnout: 54,964 (75.28%)

  34. The Plymouth boundary changes look pretty dreadful for Labour with Moor View picking up Tory voting Peverell while Sutton and Devonport easily compensates its loss by gaining the two rock solidly Tory Plymstock wards.

    The three once Labour (or notionally Labour) seats in the greater Bristol area move even further out of reach too (NE Somerset, Kingswood, Filton and Bradley Stoke).

  35. Bath looking a little bit less like a potential Lib Dem gain then…

    Any notional figures for Cheltenham (I think it’s only one ward moving there though) or St Ives by any chance?

  36. Plymouth was always going to be bad for Labour, could only move into Tory territory.

  37. The same is probably true for a lot of the county towns Labour held in 1997 (e.g. Stafford, Gloucester, Worcester). Most are comfortably Tory at the moment and they have little alternative but to expand further into the countryside.

  38. Moving closer to long-term Labour wipeout in the SW. Outside Bristol, only Exeter is a fly in the ointment – but I’m not sure how well Corbyn will go down, there…

  39. @Paul well Gloucester has to contract actually. Thankfully they have done the sensible thing this time and returned Longlevens and removed the two Quedgeley wards not removing Westgate (the Cathedral part of the city centre as they tried last time).

  40. Runnymede
    A tad dramatic, while not good for Labour both Plymouth seats would remain key marginals with I believe tory majorities sub 10% (will have to work out the notionals later)

  41. And Bristol West an even better prospect for the Greens.

    I should imagine Bristol East, Bristol South and Exeter should stay good for Lab

  42. Maxim
    Labs majority in West looks to be the exact same?

  43. Incorrect. It’d be about 0.5% smaller. But that’s just me being pedantic

    What did you say the lab majority in the new Sheffield Central would be?

    Trying to draw up UKIP and Green target seats for 2020

  44. 8 unchanged seats in the South West:

    Bristol North West
    Bristol South
    Exeter
    North Devon
    North Somerset
    Taunton Deane
    Torbay
    Weston-super-Mare

  45. I’d imagine UKIP and the Greens main targets would be trying to get Carswell and Lucas elected in their notionally Tory (?) seats?

  46. I didn’t I think it was MrNameless who looked at Sheffield.

  47. Andy – in answer to your query on PB.com (from which I am apparently currently banned, no idea why) about –

    ‘new constituency called Broadstone, Ferndown and Kinson’

    These places are suburban areas to the north of Bournemouth

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