South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,549 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. Ian is Catherine’s son IIRC

  2. Ahh ok – another Bearder son is standing in W Midlands too

  3. UKIP List

    1 Nigel Farage 89,909 votes
    2 Janice Atkinson 23,304
    3 Diane James 18,131
    4 Ray Finch 13,344
    5 Donna Edmunds 5,475
    6 Patricia Culligan 5,192
    7 Nigel Jones 4,225
    8 Alan Stevens 2,491
    9 Simon Strutt 2,463
    10 Barry Cooper 1,982

  4. 4 UKIP
    2 CON
    2 LAB
    1 GRN
    1 LD

  5. Euro poll:

    YouGov, certain to vote:

    Lab 32%
    UKIP 30%
    Con 21%
    LD 6%
    Green 5%

  6. With all due respect, YouGov polls are rather inaccurate, because they are biased in favour of large parties compared to polls like Ipsos MORI, their regions are too large for results from them to be reliable, and also they are pretty poor at predicting Euro elections results. I think the Greens will poll better than the Lib Dems, and certainly much higher than 5%!

  7. I think that it is difficult to use these early polls in order to predict the euro results. YouGov was pretty accurate in their last couple of polls though last time.

    I expect that the UKIP figure will go up in the meantime at the expense of the Labour and Conservative figures. The Greens should end up doing slightly better than that 5% and I can see the Lib Dems doing a couple of points better than a pathetic 6%.

  8. Shouldn’t we start thinking sbout what the effects of a UKIP surge will be on the European Election outcome? Looking at the figures, it seems to me that the LIbDems will probably lose one seat. Their other once is in danger but I think the probablity is that they will scrape in. In other circumstances, Labour could also be in danger of losing their seat, but their advance in the polls compare to the last Euro elections means that they are probably be all right. The Conservatives will probably lose a seat to UKIP, but would be doing badly to lose two.

    The biggest worry is for the Greens. They may very well lose their seat simply because UKIP will soak up the protest vote that went to the Greens last time. Much will depend on how energetically Keith Taylor campaigns and how effectively they can use the European funding they will get for the election.

  9. “Downing Street is braced for a “disastrous” European election in the wake of the Maria Miller expenses scandal as a new summary of the opinion polls suggest the Tories will fall to third place.
    Conservative sources privately concede that David Cameron has all but given up hope of beating the UK Independence Party when voters go to the polls next month to elect Members of the European Parliament.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/conservative/10762889/Tories-face-coming-third-behind-Ukip-in-Euro-poll.html

  10. UKIP: 5 seats
    CON: 2 seats
    LAB: 1 seat
    GRN: 1 seat

    UKIP will be near 40% here but the Conservative vote will be higher than anywhere else in the country, preventing UKIP from advancing any further despite Farage’s name being on the ballot paper. The Lib Dems have their best chance at retaining a seat here but although the final seat is a toss up between them and UKIP, I would place UKIP as slight favourites.

  11. That will never ever come to pass. The SE is nowhere near angry enough for the government to only get 2/9 seats. If it does I will bare my arse at Oxford Town Hall.

  12. I don’t think UKIP will do quite as well as that in this region. LDs should just about retain a seat.

  13. There is no way UKIP will take 5 seats. There are some good areas for UKIP in kent and along the coast but people forget that they don’t have the same appeal to affluent higher income Tories in places like surrey.

    I think 4 to cons 3 seems realistic and it would really be a terrible night for the LDs if they can’t hold onto a seat here but I think they may fail to especially as I think the greens have a good chance of holding theirs

  14. UKIP are consistently polling at 40% in sub-samples for the South East. In the European elections UKIP will take the votes of affluent middle class voters as many people are looking to protest against the EU. UKIP is very strong in Kent, East Sussex, West Sussex, Hampshire, and Buckinghamshire. Yes, they are weaker in Surrey and Berkshire but they should still be looking to come on top on this particular occasion. I don’t normally trust regional sub-samples but if they show consistent results poll after poll there must be some merit in them.

    I have also realised that there are 10 seats rather than 9 available here. On that basis I will award the final seat to the Lib Dems, though Labour will be challenging them for it.

  15. The sub-samples are not reliable because they’re only based on 50 people in some cases which gives an enormous margin of error.

  16. I never trust sub samples and I would find it difficult to see how UKIP could get 40 percent when the Tories in their pre government poll in 2009 didn’t manage to get that in their strongest region…

    It seems to me and some of the recent polling does bare this out that UKIP have reached their peak and there will be a slow drift back to other parties leaving them on about 34-5% come polling day in the SE..

    I agree with you re the 10th seat though I think it will go to the lib dems not labour who only have a couple of key areas like Slough and even strong areas like Oxford are trending green so I think they will just miss out on the 2nd seat..

  17. Andy JS, I agree that sub-samples alone are unreliable; but if the results for them are consistent across many polls from many pollsters they are surely indicating something.

  18. No they are not as they are not internally weighted. Error calcultions presume they have been. They are total garbage.

  19. We will see who is right when the results come out.

  20. I agree with you that UKIP will do extremely well in the Euro elections. If turnout is less than 40% they could reach 33-35%.

  21. I would be very surprised if UKIP got over 30%. Some polls show them in the high twenties.

    While I accept that more UKIP voters may vote than supporters of other parties in a stand alone Euro election the locals at the same time will boost the other parties.

  22. I don’t think the locals will make much difference, but I do suspect that UKIP are being over ramped.

    Though some polls have said otherwise, I do not see them polling high enough in Scotland and London to average more than 30% UK wide.

  23. I totally agree with the above… The south east is likely to be their best result at 35ish percent… Nationally they will be dragged down by London which should have a bigger turnout due to the locals and Scotland and I think there will be a small amount of drift back from UKIP in the next 2 weeks. This should leave them on about 28 percent nationally with lab and con on 24-27 % and the liberals on 7ish.

    It should be an interesting election to watch as I really think it’s possible UKIP or labour could come top in national votes but also that the Tories could sneak a second place if everything falls in their favour (I don’t think this is going to happen but there is a chance which should make things interesting)

  24. ‘The south east is likely to be their best result at 35ish percent’

    If that is the case – and it looks like a fairly accurate prediction to me – it will be interesting to see what Labour’s share of the vote will be in the South East – because there aren’t an awful lot of Labour voters for UKIP to attract

  25. The south-east is too well-off for UKIP to score their highest share. It’ll be Eastern, South West or just possibly West Midlands.

  26. That’s most likely right. Nevertheless, here in true blue West Sussex the only leaflet I’ve had has been from UKIP. Seems many posters on political sites are saying this too.

  27. Some bits of West Sussex look quite good for UKIP

    I’d expect them to do well across the delapidated South Coast in towns like Shoreham, Worthing and Littlehampton. I would have thought they would also have some appeal amongst the WWC electors in Crawley and in the considerably nicerHorsham too

    Funnily enough I drove past a Country Fair yesterday which had a big ULKIP poster on its entrance. It was enough to make me turn away certainly I’m not exactly sure where but it was between Oxted and Gatwick – true blue East Surrey – which suggests UKIP vote isn’t exclusively WWC

  28. A large chunk of the area between Oxted and Gatwick is within the Godstone CC division of Surrey which UKIP won last year

  29. The only political poster I’ve seen so far in North West Leicestershire is on the gates of a huge house on the very outskirts of Ashby.

    I know UKIP are a more working-class party than the Tories, but that’s not to say their old disgruntled, mustachioed, Land Rover driving ex-colonel vote has disappeared.

  30. I should add for clarity that it was a UKIP poster.

  31. Ahem, less of the ‘dilapidated’ please when mentioning Worthing, Tim. It certainly shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as Littlehampton being three times the size and considerably more prosperous and – these days – even a little more demographically varied.

    That said, the Euros are hotting up in the Worthing West area. UKIP posters and boards are springing up like candles on a Horse Chestnut tree. There’s also one or two discreet Conservative posters about. We have Borough Council elections on the same day and I would expect UKIP to capture some East Worthing seats.

  32. I can see UKIP taking all of the Worthing seats up for grabs on the council this year.

  33. Con 3
    UKIP 3
    Green 1
    Lab 1
    Lib Dem 1

  34. I think labour will win two seats

  35. Made this prediction on the ‘Candidates’ page, but for clarity here it is again:

    UKIP 3
    Con 3
    Lab 2
    LD 1
    Green 1

    I think perhaps Dalek did mean 2 Labour, as his prediction misses out on 1 seat (there are 10 MEP places for the South East).

  36. How many of the candidates for the European elections live in Kent, and who are they?

  37. I was in the minority here thinking UKIP could just top the poll here, but I certainly could not expect 4 seats in such a kind of Tory heartland. This is a spectacular night for UKIP.

    I see my party failed to win a second seat. I feel sorry for those members who assumed a second seat was a given, because they didn’t appreciate the electoral math needed for that was far from certain. I still would have expected us to get one, but I at least braced myself for the chance we wouldn’t. This is a blow for Labour here. So far, only the North East has proved above my expectations.

    At least the Lib Dems have avoided a wipeout.

  38. The Lib Dems only just avoided a wipeout. There were under 10,000 votes in it. Based on the Lib Dem’s London local election results, I can’t really see them retaining their London seat.

  39. Twittersphere furiously claiming Hannan is on his way to UKIP imminently…if not already there..

  40. That was just a times story as far as I’m aware Antiochan, who is making these claims? Still I wouldn’t be that surprised if he did defect in the future.

  41. Former UKIP MEP Ashley Mote has been jailed for five years over expenses fraud.

  42. BETFAIR BREXIT odds:
    REMAIN: 1.45 (5/2)
    LEAVE: 3.25 (9/4)

    LADBROKES expect at a comfortable REMAIN result.
    LEAVE % line is set at 43.50% and it’s 16/1 that either side win by 1% or less.

    Does anyone think BORIS JOHNSON will commit to REMAIN and campaign for them? If he does, those odds will dramatically alter.

  43. @Deepthroat

    Yes, I think he is more likely to commit to Remain. If he wanted to Leave he wouldn’t be trying to get Cameron to do something to convince him to Remain and wouldn’t have written a Telegraph article in which he spoke about both sides of the balance sheet. Cameron has been developing something to assert ‘parliamentary sovereignty’, which will undoubtedly be gimmicky and legally flawed but should be enough to allow Boris to justify letting down those that think he’s an outer.

    Having said all that I wouldn’t quite rule out that he reluctantly backs Leave.

  44. I think he’ll be backing LEAVE – but with what energy & commitment?

    I see FARAGE is saying that BORIS JOHNSON has to campaign for LEAVE if he has ambitions to be PM.

    I see also FRANK FIELD has declared for LEAVE citing lack of border control as the reason.

  45. Theresa May and Sajid Javid confirm for Remain. Only people of much significance as yet undeclared are now Boris and Michael Fallon.

  46. A LEAVE campaign with JOHNSON, GOVE & PATEL at the helm – or near to it – might, might deliver it for the outers.

  47. This seems to have become the de facto referendum thread… in which case I might note that the AV referendum had 42.2% turnout but coincided with the council elections that year…

    Anyone care to venture what the turnout for this will be? In light of the Leavers being (seemingly) more motivated than the Remainders (sic) turnout could be crucial…

  48. ”This seems to have become the de facto referendum thread”

    Please could administrators on this website create an EU Referendum thread. I think such an important election deserves its own thread.

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