South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,549 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. A lot of people from Catholic backgrounds (although they’re not religious these days). That demographic was always going to be less Brexit than previously CoE areas.

  2. “I’ll leave you to say if London ‘underperformed’ in turnout or for Remain.”

    Both. The turnout would have been better without the torrential rainstorms, and if there hadn’t been a complacency that Remain were going to win.

    But even with a better turnout London would still have been hobbled by those outer boroughs which were not as enthusiastic for Remain as the inner boroughs. For London to have outvoted the rest of the country, Remain needed to do far better in Bexley, Newham, Barking, Sutton etc.

    I drove through Sutton yesterday afternoon and got the impression Leave would win there. That and the rain were the first two wobbles to my confidence that Remain would clinch it.

  3. BM11 – yes, look up Knowsley village. There’s also a nice part of Kirkby. Halewood is more Tory than Woolton of late and there’s other smaller settlements such as Turlock etc. Or just Google L34 8HB (the Labour In campaign HQ was here: on a very plush semi rural road in Prescot).

    AndyJS – that’s also true (although more of a factor in Vauxhall, Lpool and Bootle, Sefton)

  4. It’s very sunny today in London as well.

  5. Do you think Vauxhall in Liverpool might have been for remain then or very tight.

  6. BM11 – it’s such a small population these days (around 3,500) hence the ward of that name was abolished a decade ago. I’d imagine it’d be 75%+ Remain ie similar to Foyle (but usually it’s 90% Labour). I don’t know yet whether Lpool will release ward data, but on the whole I think 15-18 wards went Leave and 12+ went Remain. But I’m told it was markedly different even between PDs within some wards.

  7. *Tarbock (in Knowsley), not Turlock [autocorrect]

    HH – thanks. Yes there must have been a few complacent Remainers who stayed at home. Although not enough to swing it.

  8. Liverpool West Derby was apparently remain according to someone I know online there.

  9. I’d be surprised by that – although I suppose it’s possible just as it does contain a couple of middle class wards, unlike Lpool Walton (the other only N Lpool seat).

  10. West Derby is my own seat as it happens and I could see it maybe squeaking a remain vote. What I think a lot of folks don’t realise is that many parts of the seat are undergoing something in the way of regeneration. The notorious Norris Green council estate has largely been demolished and replaced with modest but respectable private homes. Thus I imagine Norris Green might have even voted narrowly for Remain. The other big estate Croxteth almost certainly went leave but what folks need to remember is that it shares a ward with the Croxteth Park housing development which is markedly more middle class and contains some of Liverpool’s more affluent suburbs. This almost certainly neutered the Leave vote in Croxteth and perhaps exceeded it with differential turnout.

    Thus when you realise Norris Green and Croxteth might not have played that big a part its not that hard to see West Derby voting Remain. Also I know for a fact that Lab were out in force with the MP Stephen Twigg in a big GOTV operation, this almost certainly helped.

  11. Rivers10 – Ha the Norris Green estate has not been demolished (my Mum’s aunt lives on Townsend Avenue – her house has been there since it was built in 1926). I think you mean the Boot estate which was demolished after 50 years as they weren’t solid walls etc. Yes, there’s some nice new housing (but only 500 IIRC).

    I hadn’t considered it that deeply, but recalled that Steve Radford’s Liberals backed Leave so that might have just tipped it for Leave (ie Tuebrook & Stoneycroft as well as Dovecot and Norris Green), but WD the ward/L12 would’ve been Remain.

    How did the GOTV operation go re students in Riverside?

  12. Looks very likely differential turnout made all the difference.

    I’ve just seen a table showing that in “safe LEAVE” areas turnout was 73.4% but in “safe REMAIN” areas it was 68.2%”

    It would be interesting that hear from JAMES E who appeared to support the polling companies at every turn.

    This is what I said at various points. I think only JACK SHELDON was in the same thinking box.

    “…we know LEAVErs are more inclined to actually get out and vote so LEAVE surely are in front.I have thought since December that the result on way or the other depends on turnout and there is massive evidence that the people likliest to vote will vote LEAVE” 2nd April

    “Every poll seems to bear this out.I still think there is a small but significant shy LEAVE Factor in all polling but esp phone polling. still think there is a small but significant shy LEAVE Factor in all polling but esp phone polling.” 18th April

    “And one cannot ignore the evidence “on the ground ” – the campaigning, returns of leaflets, volunteers, polls in media and on Internet.
    My prediction at this time is
    R 47.75%
    L.52.25%”
    April 27th, 2016

    “My prediction of an approx 4% LEAVE is predominantly predicated on differential turnout and that polling figures for LEAVE are being underestimated…mainly because of not treating differential turnout adequately.”
    June 9th, 2016

    When will we hear from the pollsters??

  13. It does seem like the additional turnout on top of a GE turnout came to a large extent from disaffected people who perhaps hate all of the parties equally but saw this as an opportunity to vote against the political class and on an issue they care about. Take, for instance, Stoke. At the GE Stoke Central had the lowest turnout in the country at 49.9%. This went up a whole 15% to 65.7% and Stoke of course voted 69-31 to Leave. There were very high turnouts in some very affluent Remain-voting parts of the country too, but these were mainly places that usually have high turnouts and the increase not as big as in the likes of Stoke and Boston. The London turnout was a touch disappointing compared to elsewhere at 69.7% – not sure if the weather had an effect, though of course that is still well up on recent GEs.

  14. Yes..thanks. great stats. Stoke says it all.

    The extra motivation amongst brexit inclined people (note. I say people not voters) was evident in the unofficial polls on t’internet, newspapers, social media.

  15. Congratulations Derpthroat, you really seem to know how chav Britain feel about things. An extraordinary talent.

  16. T…Mmm…I don’t think that’s meant as a compliment.

    Would you like an opportunity to be a little more straightforward?

  17. It was the sincerest of compliments. I wish I had that ability to get in touch with such people.

  18. Still not wholly convinced.

  19. Honestly, it is. I didn’t actually know anyone socially who was voting ‘Leave’. I had acquaintances of whom I suspected/ heard subsequently that they did indeed vote to Leave. So my point is that I probably should expand my social circle beyond beyond people from their mid twenties to late thirties who are predominantly professional people.

  20. Deepthroat – “When will we hear from the pollsters” – I doubt we will anytime soon.

    Kellner must be in a darkened room listening to Ode to Joy.

  21. Tristan – that’s interesting and certainly true on both sides.

    Hence the vox pops showing almost everyone had voted Leave on estates in Stoke, N Wales, N Manchester, Essex and so on.

  22. LANCS..yes poor KELLNER MUST be a bit depressed this weekend.

    TRISTAN..OK I’ll take your word for it. Maybe it has something to do with the reality that I am very working class but I move in circles from the underclass to the upper middle class; non-politicos & those who are in politics. I also listen to a lot of talk radio which can give you an inkling of public mood. The Internet of course is also very useful for gaining a wide range of opinions / facts.

  23. BBC Parliament are showing all of the Results again now.

    So the people of Islington can have their 2nd Ref and look up on a map where the 70% of places are who voted Leave ha

  24. Deepthroat – that’s my background and circles I move in too.

    I was amazed to hear a young graduate in London say, “how many English nurses, cleaners or builders do you know? We need EU immigrants.”

    I happen to know all 3 and I suspect many do outside London.

  25. My group of close buddies include an ex drug addict, who works 55-60 hrs a week on the minimum wage and an old friend who earns very nearly 7 figures in an industry which I think is grotesque.

    I sispect not enough Labour MPS actually have friends or acquaintances who are poor, w/c, unemployed.

    Peter Oborne on BBCR4 today told Caroline Flint that Labour MPS like her “hate ” their voters.

  26. I don’t think Flint hates those people, but she probably couldn’t give a toss about them either. Society conditions people to not like the underclass and working class. Do well at school, go to university, get a well paid or ‘worthy’ job. These are seen as the main markers of success in our society.

  27. I wonder if their will be a political alignment because of this or fracturing of the main two parties. For example I imagine Tory voters in Chelsea and Fulham are less than impressed with their party same goes for Labour voters in places like Doncaster. I’m not saying that Chelsea will vote Labour or Doncaster Tory but I wonder existing political loyalties will begin to crack as politics fragments.

  28. It’s telling that Labour In avoided some of their safe seats on the day. Their website shows that their HQs and Hubs were all in middle class wards to GOTV.

    Labour are used to not having to GOTV in ‘their’ wards in GEs.

    It’s in part due to falling Party membership since WWII (so they had to concentrate what foot soldiers they had – mainly students in city centres), but also even they recognised that this time, it wasn’t worth them searching for Remainers on council estates.

    The TV coverage of the ‘look’ of the BSE people at Counts was stark. The ‘workers’ weren’t the Labour In door knockers.

  29. Lancs Observer
    Re your post directed at me up thread
    I think your right about Norris Green, I just always considered that whole area to be Norris Green but maybe it is technically two different estates, indeed on the bus to uni every day there are plenty of signs along Muirhead avenue advertising the redevelopment of the area, they seem to be rebranding the place as the “Evergreen” estates.

    Hadn’t considered the Liberals much either to be fair but I did quite a bit of canvassing in the Tuebrook ward and it really did seem to split 50-50 and with some clear inter ward divides, the Stoneycroft part of the ward in the South and around Newsham Park seemed good for Remain but we struggled in the terraces of Tuebrook unless it wasa BME family. Also interesting is that nobody once mentioned the Liberals (though that’s not a huge surprise)

    As fort the GOTV operation truth be told I didn’t end up doing that much. ended up knocking on the known occupied student houses along Smithdown, very positive response, some had already voted, others assured me they would, even managed to talk a few into actually going to vote as soon as they were done talking to me (actually saw several walking to the polling station) but I doubt it made a huge difference. I have a friend who lives there and I ended up talking to him for way too long and also it was SUPER sunny and I got sick of walking around so I only door knocked for about two hours all in all. Do you know if Liverpool is releasing turnout figures per ward? If Greenbank has a below average turnout I’ll feel super guilty.

  30. Rivers10 – thanks for the update.

    No, it is within NG, it’s just the bit that you mentioned which was demolished and rebuilt only makes up around 15% of the area. NG is everything from Lowerhouse Lane, the East Lancs Rd, Loopline/Broadway, Utting Avenue East etc (but I realise you probably thought of it as the Norris Green Park side, with living in L12). NG is an area I covered for a couple of years when I was a trainee journo over a decade ago (that’s how I recall all of the tinned up, derelict housing over the side you meant). Glad to see it’s almost all now been resolved. I think Norris Green village is the name of the development I saw in the Your Move mag (but that might just be confined to 200-300 houses opposite St Teresa’s). Evergreen does ring a bell though: it may be one of the recent Help To Buy estates.

    I think in Tuebrook, it’s almost the Steve Radford Party (as opposed to the Liberals), so that might explain that. Yes, it was a bit too warm & sunny to be GOTV all day.

    Some NW councils have now released actual results by ward (eg Wigan), as well as Turnout. I think all will get around to releasing turnout by ward, but l I haven’t emailed to ask yet. I think Steve Barker and his team deserve a few days rest for the time being.

  31. SkyData reckons only 36% of 18-24 year olds voted.

    Compared with 83% of those over 65.

  32. Not a huge surprise LANCS.

    COMRES have admitted they coked up on national picture :

    24/6/16
    “…our early thinking is that the shifting UK political landscape may require a new approach to predictive political polling, in order to take greater account of the regional demographic and new political landscapes.

    Regional and demographic differences also played a powerful role, and it was clear in the final days that a large proportion of voters were still moving between dramatically different binary choices with considerable fluidity.happened,

    …the whole industry finds it harder than ever to forecast accurately aggregated national vote shares.”

    ADAM BOULTON and MICHAEL PORTILLO both touched on difficulties getting a sample which I reported on this thread.
    BOULTON deserves a special mention.

  33. Now that is one area I will agree with you. Adam Boulton has been excellent. I take it all back, Adam.

  34. So much for “75% of 18-24’s voting remain”. When you take turnout into account, it’s only 27%, compared to 35% of the whole electorate.

    Viewed through that prism, complaints that millennials have had their future stolen from them look even more churlish.

  35. Yes these claims are pretty pathetic. A few Tarquins and Georginas presuming to speak for their whole age group – 2/3 of which apparently couldn’t care less.

  36. It is notable that turnout was generally up on the GE, but amongst demographics that skewed to remain – particularly young people & Scots – turnout was markedly down.

  37. Not really. Turnout was up just about everywhere on the GE except Scotland (election fatigue and lack of campaigning up there, I expect). But it was up the most the working class areas.

  38. Why not ? I’ve been telling you precisely that since February.

  39. The Shadow Cabinet meeting tomorrow has been cancelled.

    Apparently Corbyn can’t replace them all. More are expected to go tomorrow as well as shadow junior ministers.

  40. He probably get enough to fill the shadow cabinet but not the Junior minsters. This coup is doomed to failure through. Enough Labour MP’s are backing Corbyn to nominate him on to a ballot if its needed and he easily win the member vote. What will then happen will be interesting.

  41. Really? I can only count 25-35 who would nominate him.

    Doesn’t he need 50 MPs?

  42. Exactly 46. But he doesn’t need them – he is automatically on the ballot. But will he stand if he’s got less than 20% of MPs?

  43. Someone in the moderates needs to commission a poll. This would probably reveal that CORBYNs support is no longer overwhelming and hasten Jexit.

  44. In the membership.

  45. But if Corbyn does go on and the vast majority of the PLP are no longer playing nice but openly airing their views from the back benches this would be utter chaos, Corbyn’s formally rather shaky authority would be reduced to absolutely nothing. A few months of this and I don’t know how he could physically go on regardless of what the membership thinks.

  46. Iain McNicoll, the general secretary of the Labour Party, has confirmed that Jeremy would not in fact be automatically on the ballot.

  47. Source please!

    This could end up in the High Court.

  48. I can only assume that Jez is both Sado madochistic and totally, helplessly deluded and arrogant. Why on earth would anyone want to carry on as leader in these circumstances?

  49. We might get to the stage where he doesn’t have enough people to fill the Shadow posts.

  50. MATT SINGH of Number Cruncher politics is another pollster with his tail between his legs. Today he writes:

    “I’m not going to pretend to be happy with a central forecast as far from the result as it was. Considering the three steps of the forecast – aggregating the polls, estimating true support for each side and projecting the evolution of support between polling and voting – the source of the error is already fairly clear.

    It has been claimed that swingback to the status quo – often seen in referendums and factored in to the model – was illusory, didn’t happen this time, or even happened in reverse. In fact (it did).

    “…to have called Brexit as the likeliest outcome based on the data available would have been significantly harder than getting last year right, and unfortunately I didn’t manage to do so this time

    But let me congratulate Opinium, Stephen Bush, Rob Hayward, Deepthroat and everyone else that called it.”

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