South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,549 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. You see why I was suspicious of the betting exchanges. Big bets sway them quickly.

  2. Birmingham appear to perhaps done slightly better for remain at 55-60 remain.

  3. But it’s people’s opinions so normally a very good guide to performance.

    Leave now are 76% favourite

  4. But it isn’t. 52% of bets placed were on Remain to 48% for Leave (my oddschecker stat last wek). It’s just that those placing bets on Remain must have placed a lot more hence how odds on Remain were.

  5. Ok I take yr point about weight of money.

    Betting now indicate a 97% probability of LEAVE winning

  6. Yes, both Sky & BBC now project a Leave Win.

  7. The pollsters are finished.

  8. Let’s not be harsh on HH, please. He had his grounds and they were reasonable enough.

  9. Polling disaster.

    Apart from OPINIUM.

  10. To be fair to HH he wasn’t hopeful until last week – he just called it wrong after Jo Cox. (I won’t repeat all that I said after that, but the fear of terrorism was never going to aid the Remain side).

  11. Kay Burley is knocking on Boris’ door live on Sky right now. Bonkers.

  12. And the tory leave vote in southern England by crude calcuations does somehow seems lower than what some polls are couple of weeks ago. So a swing of some sorts in the south east being picked up is not unreasonable.

  13. Differential voting was key. Shy leavers in the polling I think it’s reasonable to assume.

    Immigration was biggest single factor and the Labour support north of the M25 voting LEAVE made a big difference.

  14. Very true. I do wonder how much of an effort pollsters make to reach people in places like Knowsley, Anglesey etc. I suppose they haven’t had to before and it’s always easier to poll people closer to where you are based.

  15. Hemmelig wrong yet again

  16. At least he makes forecasts rather than appearing every 2 months to shoot down the predictions of others!

  17. HH called the OLDHAM WEST ROYTON by-election very accurately and he respected my theories on differential voting; difficulties for pollsters getting representative samples and possibilities of “shy leavers” in polls.

  18. Let’s not blame individuals on here, the pollsters mucked it up again.

  19. But some of us knew not to trust them.

  20. Did the pollsters really muck up that much? Not too far from the margin of error. I’m more shocked at the complete ineptitude of the markets.

  21. So my instincts were right re Leave win, strength of Leave in Labour heartlands and polling error. Disappointed but not as upset as many liberal elites seem this morning. The country has decided and the choice must now be embraced.

  22. I feel the same way (disappointed but accepting). To be fair though Jack, not sure we’ve had quite enough reaction yet to tar all ‘liberal elites’ with the same brush! I haven’t heard any particularly ungracious reactions yet.

  23. Also remember that for many people in the regions, anyone with a university degree and who earns more than 35-40k a year is a member of the ‘liberal elite’. Whereas for many in London and the South East, that’s the bare minimum you need to get by.

  24. @Tristan

    Mostly the academics on my Twitter feed. But you’re right – too early to properly judge the elite reaction.

  25. Fair enough. University degree holders broke extremely heavily for Remain. This board is strangely unrepresentative re: that fact.

  26. I never thought this would happen. I was convinced Remain would get about 51%.

  27. I haven’t posted for abut. Ten months but I have to doff my cap to deepthroat who has once again been right against the grain. I and hemmelig got the election wrong last year, basically for following the polls. Once again hem melting, by slavishly following bs polls, got it wrong

    Deepthroat- you clearly have a talent and feel for reading elections which few have. Well done mate! You deserve a beer! Hope you can monetise your obvious talents at reading elections

  28. @Deepthroat: “Polling disaster. Apart from OPINIUM” – I think that was more to do with that random last sample than anything. I wonder whether polling in the UK is now finished.

    Come to think of it, is the UK now finished? All 32 Scottish council areas backing Remain could well be grounds for IndyRef 2.

    And well done to Deepthroat, Christian and the other few who had the courage to actually predict Leave wins despite all the apparent evidence.

  29. My canvassing in South Somerset showed huge support for LEAVE in the working class areas so I was always hopeful.

  30. Hemmelig got it basically right up until the Jo Cox murder, I don’t think he deserves flak. Now to sit back and watch the fireworks.

  31. Eh? I don’t think even he will agree that he was saying LEAVE at any point.

  32. Hemmelig predicted a small Leave win until Jo Cox was murdered, at which point he thought it would swing it for Remain. I think what tripped him up was the postal votes already cast. In Sheffield they were 3:1 for Leave.

  33. Fascinating to hear any bets from anyone win or lose.

    I had:
    Turnout 65-70% Lost
    Turnout < 68% Lost…small bets

    LEAVE win @ 11 /4 won….big bet placed in March
    Remain % 45-50 small
    LEAVE at evens, placed at 1.30am last night medium bet
    Cameron to go by 1/7/16..small bet.?? as yet unsettled

  34. At the risk of irritating people, I have been saying it would be brexit since February.

    I said 47/53% in Feb, 47.5/52.5 in April and my Last prediction on Independence Day was 48.5/51.5%.

    “PREDICTION
    REMAIN 48.5%
    LEAVE 51.5%
    Turnout 69.5%
    Reasons:
    Differential turnout
    Anecdotal evidence- motivation of LEAVE side
    All unofficial polls – massive LEAVE leads
    More Labour voters will go LEAVE
    Small shy leave in polls
    “Status quo” voting not a big factor
    Boris Johnson factor” June 23rd, 2016 at 10:43am

  35. Don’t call it Independence Day, we’ve not become American.

  36. Well done Deepthroat.

    Credit where it’s due – you predicted it as well as anybody. I was expecting at least a ten per cent margin for remain.
    Am I right in thinking that Hemmelig owes your horse charity a donation?

  37. “Am I right in thinking that Hemmelig owes your horse charity a donation?”

    Yes. Just about the only good thing about today from my point of view is that Deepthroat’s horse charity will be a few quid richer. Deepthroat – let me know how to make the donation please.

    Well done to all who got it right despite the polls, Deepthroat especially, whose final prediction was eerily close.

    I think the fun of the predictions pales in comparison to the momentous scale of the decision to Leave the EU. I couldn’t look my little kids in the eye this morning, knowing what we have most likely done to their futures. For those of us who are solvent and already quite comfortable, Brexit will be a pain but we’ll be OK. For those in less agreeable circumstances, including many of the under 30s, it will be tougher. I really do feel sorry for those like MrNameless and Maxim Parr-Reid who are going to have to try to start off their careers in the midst of this mess. Many who voted for Brexit will regret it IMO.

  38. And Mid Sussex

  39. I always said LEAVE would win despite most people on here saying I was wrong!

    When I heard 2nd and 3rd generation ethnic minorities and loyal Labour supporters saying they’re voting LEAVE, I just knew REMAIN were in trouble!

    I was going to place £10 at Ladbrokes on LEAVE winning but didn’t get round to it! Regret it now! How much would I have won?

  40. Credit where credit’s due, you were also close on Maidstone, well done.

  41. Thanks. Do you want me to send you a receipt?

  42. @H.Hemmelig

    Thank you.

    My prediction for Maidstone was nearly correct because all my friends (except 2 people in the same family) who live there intended to vote LEAVE.

    My three bellwether local authorities – Watford, Canterbury and Chelmsford – which I thought would vote LEAVE voted as I expected.

  43. Yes you were another one CHRISTIAN, well done.

    HHEMMELIG….No receipt, that’s unnecessary. thank you.

    I see I have been paid on my bet that STOKE ON TRENT being highest LEAVE area at 5/1 (in a list of 12). Nice little bonus that

  44. @DeepThroat

    Thank you!

    I think you predicted a LEAVE vote too. If so, well done too!

  45. Deepthroat – yes, won 3 of my 4 bets. Leave; England Leave; Remain 45-50%. Turnout let me down for a clean sweep.

    Some councils are releasing ward results later today. It seems John Mann was right about WWC turnout being higher than the rest winsome of the Northern mets outside the big cities. I’ve only had a chance to look at Wigan and Knowsley so far, but it’s clear why they produced Leave results.

    In the poorer council estate wards where turnout is usually lower than the suburbs, turnout rose 10-15% in some cases. Turnout was about par with GE turnout or down 2% in the middle class wards (which make up a minority of wards but often turnout in double the proportion of the poorer ‘safe seats’ in both locals and GEs)

  46. Well done Lancs. You were right. I think those of us who thought the WWC revolt would be confined to the Stokes and Barnsleys were taken aback by the fact that it was basically everywhere outside London, even some of the big cities like Sheffield and Birmingham.

  47. Sadly not councils counted by Ward’s. Barking and Dagenham didn’t according to someone at the count. Don’t think many did in London. A councillor in Hornsey and Wood Green tweeted that his ward ( 70% Bame) was fairly close but only by the sampling. It was not counted like that.

  48. HH – thanks. To be fair the extent surprised me (esp in Birmingham). Whilst I was always hopeful of a Leave win – hence my bets – like many at 3 or 4am I thought Remain could just still do it because of London. I’ll leave you to say if London ‘underperformed’ in turnout or for Remain.

    I’d be interested to hear from Rivers10 re how their GOTV operation went re students. It’ll be a while before we see the Marked Registers. My colleague got the impression that of the students who voted, 70%+ were for Remain, but they weren’t matching in numbers or proportion the almost 85% who were for Leave amongst OAPs. Indeed it was the LD/ex Tory suburbs (75% Remain) and Green ward (c85%) that saved Lpool for Remain, whilst the N Lpool estates were 55-60% Leave – in line with neighbouring Kirkby, Huyton, Widnes & Warrington.

  49. Does Knowesley have some middle class areas then? As it was only 52-48 for leave. The Wirral was opposite result and has many middle class areas including some very good for remain id guess.

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