South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,549 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. Conversely the flooding in Romford shut the Great eastern main line all morning so many commuters may not have gone to work unlike from Sussex, Surrey and Hampshire where the trains did work a bit this morning but are more delayed now.

  2. The trains from Sussex & Surrey only got as far as Clapham Junction, no trains into Victoria since early this morning.

  3. The much lauded MATT SINGH of Number Cruncher has just posted :

    “…there is a 95% chance that Remain gets between 45% and 61% and that Leave gets between 39% and 55%”

  4. Ouch. I think it stlll easier to get from Clapham Junction into the city than where the GEML was terminating through. I imagine most will manage to get home by 10 and vote unless it would have still be tight for them in the first place.

  5. Basically its still too close to call ( and my gut instinct is that leave will win) as non polling/bookies evidence points to leave while the polls and bookies point to remain.

  6. What exactly is your non polling/ bookies evidence? (You are also ignoring how the currency and stock markets have reacted). Gobshites on Facebook?

  7. “I imagine most will manage to get home by 10 and vote unless it would have still be tight for them in the first place.”

    Technicaly perhaps, but many will be tired & hungry and won’t prioritise voting over eating and relaxing for an hour before bed, especially as the consensus seems to be that Remain has won.

  8. The rumours of the bad postal vote for remain. Turnout factors. And campaigners reporting back bad remain votes in areas that should be fairly close.

  9. All three of these examples are anecdotal and hard to verify. Certainly not evidence by any stretch.

    You have said multiple times that you are supporting Remain but think Leave will win. I think we all get your point.

  10. The consensus seems to be that whilst the 2015 election showed that no one should trust the polls any more, the bookies are usually more accurate and the odds they are currently offering on a Leave victory could net a punter a small fortune

    Having said that I remember Runnymead mentioning that he had made himself a tidy bit of money from getting very generous odds on seats that the Tories held at the 2015 election, so maybe the bookies too are losing their touch

    As a staunch supporter of Remain, it’s fair to say I am currently extremely nervous indeed and my morning confidence has evaporated

  11. Tristan – as Deepthroat has pointed out large bets can skew odds. However of the total bets placed oddschecker shows that 52% of them were on Remain and 48% on Leave.

    So BM11 is right to say it’s still too close to call IMHO.

    The YouGov poll just released also gives a 52:48 split.

    It’ll be down to turnout as most on here said.

  12. If YouGov is right, Sunderland would probably be something like 46-47% Remain.

  13. Private UKIP exit poll shows Leave victory, apparently.

  14. MP-R. True – you could have got 14/1 on a Tory overall majority in 2015 as well.

  15. Isn’t that the Leave EU poll released? Not much affect on the currency market’s which seem to be very remain.

  16. And leave politicians who appear rather downbeat.

  17. @Maxim Parr-Reid

    Looks like it! I’m still predicting a very narrow LEAVE win overall due to postal votes!

  18. It would be very close to 50/50 in England.

  19. If (emphasis “if”) it is 52-48 to Remain it would almost certainly mean England less Greater London has voted to leave

  20. I heard there’s been a huge turnout in northern Labour heartlands! So it’s too close to call!

  21. I predicted a LEAVE win but if they do succeed the bookies – and punters – have got this completely wrong, a rare occurrence.

    There’s been nearly £60 million traded on BETFAIR and REMAIN are 90% favourite. So if you believe in the wisdom of crowds…

    I am very close to admitting it’s a REMAIN win.

  22. but I may be close with my turnout prediction of 69.50%. !!

  23. Gibraltar anticipated 90% Remain

  24. Whoooaaa…NEWCASTLE said to marginal REMAIN.

    From models a 50/50 national is 54/46% in NEWCASTLE.

    LEAVES price has tumbled on BETFAIR fromm 9% to 16%.

  25. John Curtice on BBC confirms looks good for LEAVE if NEWCASTLE is marginal.

  26. Wandsworth could be 70% for REMAIN according to the BBC!

  27. @Maxim Gibraltar is a nice place but of course it will be monolithically for remain as a large part of its economy is based on duty free sales to Spanish citizens so free movement is extremely important there.

    I voted leave but it was a difficult decision. If remain do win then I hope it is close so that the European political elite don’t see it as a signal to impose their ‘divine’ will on us.

  28. It’s looking very good for Leave. Political elite getting it completely wrong as usual.

  29. I’ve always said LEAVE would scrape it by a whisker!

  30. LEAVE price in free fall on betting markets.

    LEAVE have gone from 9% chance to 27% probability based on mainly the NEWCASTLE shock

  31. John Curtis is predicting there’s been a lower than expected turnout in Scotland due to a lack of campaigning as all the main parties supported REMAIN!

  32. Uk to exit EU based on NEWCASTLE RESULT & SUNDERLAND.

    SUNDERLAND goes 39/61% to LEAVE! !!

    Leave goes from 9% chance to 35% in just 50min.

    Pound has fallen sharply.

  33. Uk to exit EU based on NEWCASTLE RESULT & SUNDERLAND.

    SUNDERLAND goes 39/61% to LEAVE! !!

    Leave goes from 9% chance to 35% in just 50min.

    Pound has fallen sharply.

  34. It looks like ‘shy leavers’ have come out in force! I wish I’d placed a bet on LEAVE winning now! Could have made a fortune!

  35. A reminder of my prediction at 10.24am this morning

    “PREDICTION
    REMAIN 48.5%
    LEAVE 51.5%
    Turnout 69.5%
    Other reasons:
    Anecdotal evidence- motivation of LEAVE side
    All unofficial polls – massive LEAVE leads
    More Labour voters will go LEAVE
    Small shy leave in polls
    “Status quo” voting not a big factor
    Boris Johnson factor”

  36. @DeepThroat

    You missed out immigration in your reasons. I think this has been a huge factor in this referendum!

  37. Staggering reports from BBC NEWS reporter in Nrth Warwickshire…”30/70…even 20/80% to LEAVE…”

  38. Now SWINDON declares 45/55 to LEAVE which is a 3% better than the 48/50 result forecasted by ANDY JS for it to be a national 50/50%. A no good result for LEAVE

  39. Bad news for REMAIN. …lowish turnout in LONDON according to JOHN CURTICE

  40. @DeepThroat

    Not surprised! The weather was awful in London yesterday and as a result many trains were cancelled and several major Central London train stations were closed!

  41. Good result for LEAVE in KETTERING as they were only expected to win 44/56% as per ANDY JSs spreadsheet

  42. Imo only a very very good REMAIN share in London can rescue this for REMAIN

  43. This is too much for me I am going bed now. Owing to depression.

  44. Ill enjoy the socttish indy ref that is so going to come.

  45. Lol…not over yet. London could rescue Dave.

  46. In my opinion LEAVE ought to be favorites to win but REMAIN are still 62% favourite.

  47. LEAVE were favourite to win but LAMBETH & then WANDSWORTH came in and REMAIN favourite again. But those 2 are in inner London it should be noted.

    54/382 areas in. Basically 50%/50% atm but it is obvious that LEAVE is going to win.

  48. It now looks like London or bust for REMAIN!

  49. Outer London will vote LEAVE judging by WATFORD BARKING etc. ..and there’s more voters there and bigger turnout there too compare d to inner London

  50. Betting markets finally finally come to terms with reality and LEAVE are now 67% favourite

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