South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,549 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. I wholeheartedly voted No at the 2014 Scottish referendum, my vote today will not be wholehearted. I have been leaning towards Remain throughout the duration of this rather dim campaign. I believe that is who I will cast my vote for.

  2. I should mention that the above traits for each type of voter mentioned in my previous post were/are the general public perceptions not my own views.

  3. I do not think there is a valid argument in suggesting that if Scotland votes Remain/UK Leave there is a valid mandate for Scottish Independence.

    1. The SNP/Yes parties in general did not achieve over 50.0% of the vote at the 2016 Scottish general election.
    2. The SNP’s manifesto is entirely ambiguous as to what conditions are necessary to merit a second referendum.
    3. There’s no evidence that our membership of the European Union will have any significant impact on the view of the Scottish electorate in respect to the separate issue of Scottish independence.

  4. Christian
    Possibly (FWIW I’m still refusing to make a prediction on the result, I honestly think it could go either way) but the key issue with the “Shy voter” phenomena is that they are drowned out by a vocal minority.

    In the case of Scotland the pro Indy voters were very loud and judging the outcome based off vox pops, rallies, social media activity, noise during the debates etc you’d think Yes would cruise it. But they didn’t cos of shy no voters.

    Similarly during the GE you were never far from a hostile public response to Tories (which leads many to claim as they often do that the BBC has a left wing bias and crams TV debates and question time audiences with lefties) but despite this the Tories still won evidently cos theyre core supporters were just less vocal.

    This time its the Leavers who are the definite vocal group. As we have all pointed out anecdotal evidence and vox pops on the news make it seem grim indeed for remain, you are never far from finding a Leave voter. Whether Leave are a minority also we will find out soon enough but I think this concept of a shy Leaver is being overplayed. I think it more likely there will be shy remainers due to the constant air time the Brexit camp seem to be getting but that’s just my two cents.

  5. I can vaguely remember a social experiment where an equal portion of Yes/No voters dined together. When asked how they intended to vote at the referendum whilst dining I believe 74% stated they would vote Yes.

  6. It’s amazing to me that the pollsters conducted detailed research into what went wrong at the election, and found that the “shy Tory” hypothesis was not a significant factor, but that people on here still use it every time they want to make a prediction that goes against what the polls say.

  7. Jason
    Lol its an image we will hopefully shake of soon enough, the facts speak for themselves, no longer in the top 5 for unemployment rates. Indeed amongst the UK’s big cities, Glasgow, Nottingham and Wolverhampton all have higher unemployment rates than Liverpool does.

  8. “It’s amazing to me that the pollsters conducted detailed research into what went wrong at the election, and found that the “shy Tory” hypothesis was not a significant factor, but that people on here still use it every time they want to make a prediction that goes against what the polls say.”

    Are you sure about that? I thought the consensus was that polling methodology required additional adjustments to probably represent the “shy tory” phenomena.

  9. properly*

  10. My understanding was that most of the problem was thought to be to do with poor sampling (in that people who were difficult to contact were disproportionately Tory voters), and that when more robust methodology was used, as in the detailed NatCen study, the results were much closer to the actual general election result.

  11. “I can vaguely remember a social experiment where an equal portion of Yes/No voters dined together. When asked how they intended to vote at the referendum whilst dining I believe 74% stated they would vote Yes.”

    No surprise, the Remainers were probably more successful in life and people always want to associate themselves with success.

  12. Also, that there were issues with how likely people were to actually vote. For example, a lower proportion of Labour supporters who said they were certain to vote actually made it to the ballot box than was the case for Tories who said they were certain to vote.

  13. I think another factor was on the turnout filters. Lots of Lab voters (especially students) saying they were almost certainly going to vote but then not doing so. This has led to some of the seriously brutal turnout filters we see in todays polls with those amongst certain demographics who don’t say that are 10/10 certain to vote being removed from the sample.

  14. Simon
    You beat me to it.

  15. Rivers10 – which postcode are you in?

    I’m going around a few polling stations in Merseyside later today, so will post re turnout etc if I get a chance tonight. I’ve taken the afternoon (and tomorrow off) so not covering them for work, just joining a former colleague from another paper who is.

  16. Betting markets indicate a comfortable REMAIN win. At this moment.

    LEAVE are 12% probability.

  17. Another interesting point from the betting markets is that they no longer see a Remain percentage of 50-55% as the likeliest 5% ‘band’. 55-60% is now the same odds as 50-55% with many, and shorter with some.

  18. I found Anthony’s report on the findings of the BPC inquiry:
    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9662

    which states “There probably weren’t any shy Tories.”

  19. That is interesting. Could be 57% Remain after all.

  20. Lancs Observer
    L12

  21. Odds have moved further towards 55-60% rather than 50-55% for Remain.

    All bookies now showing this as the favourite ‘band’.

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage

  22. My boss got 1/7 on remain this morning – apalling odds by any measure

  23. I’m beginning to think it might not be a long night after all. The impression that you get is that parts of the Leave vote are pretty soft.

  24. Ah ok. I’d assumed you were around Lark Lane/L17 from what you said.

    He probably won’t get to your home area, but might see your campaigners in Riverside on his/our travels later today.

  25. If the result is indeed 57% Remain or thereabouts Sunderland should return a very tight result, possibly going Remain. Newcastle-upon-Tyne should definitely go Remain.

  26. We should probably know the result after the first couple of declarations, as we did in Scotland in 2014 from Clackmannanshire’s 54% No result.

  27. 1/7 on Remain?! I’m somewhat confident but that’s insane.

  28. The odds of a Remain vote are around 75-85%.

  29. Lancs Observer
    Lol yeah despite being a student I’m actually not in student accommodation, living at home. Looks like I’ll be in knocking along Smithdown this afternoon FWIW.

  30. Hi there,

    I’m a long time browser of this site and live in St Albans.

    Pepperminttea – was just wondering why you think it will be closer than expected in St Albans. As a Leave voter, I’d welcome that but would be shocked if it’s not at least 60/40 here.

  31. @ NTY UK

    In Hanretty’s analysis, Sunderland was expected to be about 47/53 to Leave in the event of an even result. So a UK result of 57/43 might be reflected as around 54/46 in Sunderland.

    But these local projections are all rather approximate, so I wouldn’t start to draw conclusions until we have 10-20 results in.

  32. Something inside me just tells me the bookies odds are ( sadly for me) going to inaccurate and a leave victory will occur.
    Turnout reports conflicting. Low at my polling station in Newham. Said to be high in Cambridge. Reported higher in suburban and rural areas compared to Urban areas mostly. Lower in Scotland and parts of Northern Ireland but quite high in nationalist areas.
    Could the weather work both ways. The great eastern main line was partly suspended this morning so a lot of Essex and Suffolk Commuters have stayed at home ( relative included). Commuters are probably slightly more remain than non commuters in these areas so perhaps on their day off some will vote when otherwise they may have not.
    I was speaking to someone online connected to stronger in in Sunderland yesterday and she predicted at 55-45 leave victory there but said turnout and the undecided will be important to the result.

  33. Went to vote when polls opened and there were less people than I expected. I know it’s early but that tends to be the time that young professionals are out before work.

  34. FTSE and betfred odds just starting to fall atm. Perhaps worse than expected private exit polling atm? Still going for a leave win. Not sure turnout of remain leaning groups will be high enough for remain to win.

  35. At the three polling stations at which I casted votes staff said turnout noticeably higher than the GE.

  36. Vote early, vote often!

  37. I presume you were casting proxy votes, Deepthroat!

    My mum and her husband are voting different ways, but still insist on going to vote out of a sense of duty. Touching, really.

  38. Yes, apparently a quarter of couples cancel out each other’s vote at GEs.

  39. If Leave wins tonight, the pollsters may as well pack up and go home.

  40. I suspect my parents will probably cancel each other out. I think my mum went the same way as me as I but I suspect my dad ( if he bothers to vote) will go the other way.

  41. A gunman has apparently fired shots in a cinema in Germany.

    Special forces have shot him dead, thankfully.

    No more details as yet, as its Breaking News on both Sky & BBC. 25 cinema goers injured, but most by the tear gas the forces used.

  42. Polling station seemed a little deserted: two people voted at the same time as me, I saw two people enter and two people leave beforehand.

  43. There were queues at 2 in Liverpool city centre just now (but due to a technical error at one), ie only 5 people waiting at 5.30pm. Turnout was up but then it has no other way to go in the worst polling district, in the worst ward, in the 2nd worst constituency ha [for turnouts in 2010]

  44. Elections etc (Fisher & Renwick) are saying in their final forecast that REMAIN are a 64% probability but they also have doubts about “status quo” voting and a comfortable LEAVE win IS foreseeable:

    “…forecast share of the vote is 52% for Remain, 48% for Leave. This reflects an expectation of a 1.5% rise in support for the status quo, based on the change that is visible on average between the final polls and the actual result in previous referendums in Britain or elsewhere. While this reflects the average historical experience we have explained here and here why the average may not be a very reliable guide.

    And…

    “…there is a lot of uncertainty in our forecast…Remain could reasonably be expected to get between 42% and 62% of the vote. Neither a comfortable Remain victory nor a comfortable Leave victory can be ruled out.”

  45. In Eastenders someone just said “…don’t forget to vote in the referendum, it’s really important”. Not one of the main characters but could this push up turnout!!

  46. Only anecdotal stuff on Twitter but seemingly very high turnout in areas seen as pro-Leave (Dorset, Lincs, unionist areas in NI) and among northern WWC voters.

    I’m not predicting any results (think it’s way too close to call) but I think it’s certainly possible that the polls and bookies could be about to get the result very wrong

  47. Eastenders referred to the election last with a brief debate on if to vote or not. Corrie and Emmerdale never bother with elections or current affairs unless its a fictional in story one.
    I agree. Despite all the polling, currency and bookies something just tells me leave is going to win.

  48. Mikeinsdevon
    I wouldn’t read too much into it, I’m refusing to make a prediction also cos I think its literally 50:50 but I’ve also heard reports of huge turnout in Scotland and London (very pro Remain areas) we’ll just have to wait and see.

  49. The rainstorms have caused mayhem across parts of London today. Interestingly some of the most severe flooding was in Romford, one of London’s few really good areas for Leave. Huge delays getting home for many commuters. This will hit commuters planning to vote after getting home & having dinner, many might not have time after they’ve eaten, this is likely to disproportionately affect Remain.

  50. @ MikeinDevon & BM11

    £10 staked on Leave now would net you £65 in the morning if they win, taking the best odds currently available. It doesn’t sound like 50:50 to me.

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