South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,549 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. I would combine the North-East with Yorkshire. Relatively controversial.

  2. I think the north-east is a more realistic size and the way to go should be smaller not larger seats.

    For this one – its obviously a weak area for Labour with two seats at the very most likely to be won, so its not going to attract a wide range of people. Reading is a relative area of strength for Labour in this region as they hold the council and can win the parliamentary seats so its not a surprise that people associated with Reading get selected

  3. “For this one – its obviously a weak area for Labour with two seats at the very most likely to be won, so its not going to attract a wide range of people.”

    but, on the other hand, the 2 winnable seats were “open” (no incumbents). Also in Labour’s strongest regions there weren’t more than 2 winnable seats available for newcomers.

    The runner up to Dodds in the female ballot is from Hastings. In the male ballot the runner up was Del Singh who I don’t think he’s politically associated to a particular area

  4. UKIP candidates:

    Nigel Farage (needs no introduction!)
    Janice Atkinson-Small – Stood Batley & Spen 2010 as a Conservative
    Ray Finch – Stood Eastleigh 2010, Hampshire cllr (UKIP group leader)
    Diane James – Waverley cllr, stood Eastleigh byelection 2012
    Nigel Jones – Lewes-based journalist (I think!)
    Simon Strutt – Stood Brentford & Isleworth 2010 for the Cut The Deficit party
    Patricia Culligan – Stood for Surrey council 2013
    Alan Stevens – Chesham & Amersham candidate 2015, Buckinghamshire cllr
    Donna Edmunds – Lewes cllr
    Barry Cooper – Stood Thames Valley PCC election 2012

  5. Very surprised Diane James wasn’t higher. I would have fully expected her to come second – to her absolute credit, she was a very polished candidate in Eastleigh considering how inexperienced UKIP were.

  6. The ranking hasn’t happened yet – this is just the list of candidatesin no particular order. I agree, she should come 2nd or 3rd behind Farage.

  7. I am told the order of appearance in the lists is the ranking made by UKIP NEC after their assessment process.

  8. I think this will be:

    4 UKIP
    2 CON
    1 LAB
    1 GRN
    1 LD

    Last seat between UKIP and CON but leaning CON considerably.

    Many of us realists in the Conservatives expect UKIP to win the Euros next year therefore it is only logical that they win the most seats, which would realistically require at least 4 seats here in order to stay ahead of Labour.

    From my perspective a UKIP win is better than a LAB one after all as I am a UKIP-sympathising Conservative and a real conservative in general.

  9. The Conservatives are pretty certain to outpoll UKIP in the south east, even if UKIP beat them nationally.

    I’m far from convinced UKIP can come first nationally in the Euro elections. They are extremely weak in London, NI and Scotland, and to a lesser extent Wales, and as I say the SE is a quite resilient Conservative heartland. That would mean they would need to be winning massively in the other 5 or 6 regions to come out on top overall. I’d be quite surprised in the end if Labour didn’t eke out a narrow win.

  10. The South East does consist of Hampshire, East Sussex, West Sussex, Kent, Isle of Wight, Surrey, Oxfordshire, and Buckinghamshire though. Next year UKIP should peak and carry all of these bar Oxfordshire and Surrey.

    I agree with you about Scotland, but they are stronger than most people think in Wales (though way behind Labour obviously). The Conservatives should beat them in London, but Havering, Redbridge, Barking and Dagenham and the like should prove strong for them.

    London is weaker then, but not extremely so; and in NI they have a leg up on the other GB parties but are hardly a major player so I agree with you there.

  11. Whilst I’m far from an expert in the demographic makeup of UKIP’s support, I must share HH’s conclusion here. UKIP did particularly well amongst more lower-middle/working-class Tories, a demographic which is in much shorter supply in the South-East than, say, in the East. Indeed, as has been pointed out, Tories in the South-East are often the established middle-class/upper-middle, who tend to have more in common with the Tories than they would with the populism of UKIP.

    Does this mean UKIP won’t outpoll the Conservatives here? Not saying that for a fact, because no doubt UKIP voters will be more motivated to come out than alot of ordinary Tories, and the protest vote will be at work, but I don’t see the kind of blowout you’re thinking of, 111. Just because the South-East is a conservative heartland, doesn’t mean it’s a heartland for the type of conservative who would vote UKIP.

  12. The middle/upper middle class only takes up a small percentage of the electorate though, and UKIP performed just as well in the South East as the East,m

  13. Think about the electoral system. One eleventh of the vote guarantees an elected candidate (9%). There is wastage for roundings of votes for those not elected either above multiples of one eleventh or because there will be a lot of parties taking some votes. So it is possible to get a seat with a little less than this.

    For UKIP to win four seats implies around 35% of the vote across the whole region. Even if they top the poll, which I believe is unlikely, they won’t reach these levels.

    Most likely that the Conservatives will hold three or four seats. On last general election showing they should be good for five, so my guess is that they hold four, with a vote share in the mid 30%’s.

    Labour will struggle to beat 18%, so are likely to get one seat only. The Lib Dems will probably fall back to the low teens and lose one of their two seats. The Green will probably hang on, particularly if Labour and the Lib Dems do poorly.

    The votes that went BNP and to other “nationalists” last time will either disappear or benefit UKIP.

    This leaves UKIP – likely to hold its current two seats. At a stretch they get three — but that implies around 25% of the vote.

  14. Absolutely agree with you and Van Fleet

  15. UKIP 33.1
    CON 31.8
    GRN 16.8
    LAB 12.0
    LD 5.1

  16. UKIP 3
    CON 3
    GRN 2
    LAB 2

  17. Con 31
    UKIP 25
    Lab 16
    Grn 12
    LD 11
    Oths 5

  18. I would only disagree with you about 2 things: I think the LDs will be less than 10% and the Greens will beat Labour here- I didn’t factor others into estimates except for the Scotland one very quickly and dodgy 🙂

  19. A lot will depend on whether there are other elections on the same day in Labour’s areas of relative strength – Slough, Southampton, Hastings, Brighton & Hove, Crawley, Medway, Reading, Milton Keynes, Portsmouth.

    The Lib Dems have quite a stubborn vote in many places here compared with elsewhere so I’m not sure it will go below 10% – think of Eastbourne, Lewes, Eastleigh, Portsmouth South

  20. Local election in 2014 in Slough, Milton Keynes,Portsmouth, Reading, Southampton, Wakingham, Hart, Adur, Fareham, Gosport, Hastings, Oxford, Basinkstoke, Cherwell, Crawley, Eastleigh, Elmbidge, Havant, Maidstone, Mole Valley, Reigate, Runnymade, Rushmoor, Tandridge, Tundbridge Wells, Winchester, West Oxfordshire, Woking, Worthing

  21. On balance it’s very helpful to Labour versus the Greens if there are no local elections in Brighton.

  22. WoC, whilst I should never say never, the Greens won’t overtake Labour. That surely isn’t even on the cards. 2009 was a confluence of very bad factors which brought Labour below the Greens, and that won’t happen again. Not least because, as H.H has pointed out, the range of local elections in Labour areas will bring out more Labour voters.

  23. ‘The middle/upper middle class only takes up a small percentage of the electorate though, and UKIP performed just as well in the South East as the East,m’

    The middle class in the South-East is hardly a small percentage, but yes they are outnumbered by working/lower-middle voters, and I never said otherwise. But my point is the proportions of both groups are much more equal than in the South-East, and that should prove decisive in preventing the kind of landslide you think UKIP will get in this region.

    And are you sure they performed just as well in the South-East? They did perform very well, but I’m pretty sure they did moreso in the East.

  24. I take your points definitely but I still think the Greens could take a 2nd seat- say if my Lab/Grn shares were reversed.

  25. Looking at Andrea’s list, Crawley is easily Labour’s best chance of a gain in next year’s locals. If they poll the most votes as they did this year, then they should be able to take it. They should also be looking at becoming the largest party in Milton Keynes and possibly forming a minority administration. Lib Dems should focus on Winchester as they remain competitive there and could take the council back from the Conservatives.

    I remain unconvinced that UKIP could win as many as 4 MEPs in the SE region. I think they will win 2 at the most which is what they got in 2009.

  26. I’m pretty sure the Greens need to gain alot more than that to get a second seat, which I don’t see on the cards at all. Where’s the momentum right now?

    I know I’ve circled around this point for awhile now, but I’ll be blunt. Your party has utterly stalled since 2010 and has even gone backwards. Sure, you’re picking up protest and ex-LD voters in places, but that’s been rather patchy, and in encouraging areas like Norwich I believe you’ve gone backwards (?) and certainly in Reading you’ve stalled. And your troubles in Brighton go without saying.

    The simple fact is, when Lucas was elected in Brighton, no doubt your party thought this was your chance to shin. However, the rise of UKIP has utterly sucked you of any media limelight, which is absolutely essential to making the kind of surges you’re hoping for. Furthermore, most of your support comes from students and leftie middle class folk: the former is a very unreliable demographic, and the other often thinks Green policies are a luxury in good economic times, but not now. Your support amongst the working class is very limited – I know in Brighton you had very little success in penetrating working-class areas.

    The fact is, you are making predictions around the site as if the Greens were experiencing a big surge, and yet we see absolutely no evidence for that. Which is why alot of your predictions get taken to task by us. It’s not because we’re mean. If anything, we’re just trying to help you with your skills – you need to be in the habit of showing concrete evidence for assertions, and right now we’re seeing zero evidence of any kind of surge.

  27. 2 at the most? I should have thought that while 2 may be the more likely outcome that 3 should be attainable, considering there’s likely to be the 2nd Lib Dem seat going begging

  28. I was replying to AKMD of course. Van Fleet’s comments are spot on

  29. That’s probably true, though I think UKIP outpolling the Tories here is unlikely.

  30. I agree though I could see them getting three seats each with leaves four between the other three parties. I haven’t worked out detailed predictions yet. When I do so of course I shall first come up with the vote shares I think are likely and then work out the seat allocation from that, as opposed to the WoC method of deciding how I would like the seats to be distributed and then attempting to make the vote shares fit that

  31. Van Fleet, I understand and agree with most of what you say but if we could reach 12%, just a 0.4% increase, with the vote share I have estimated which isn’t unreasonable, by the d’Hondt system we *could* take another seat.

  32. Pete I don’t do that at all- see the SW region. It’s one of the *better* Green areas but I predicted them to not win any seats there. I am going by the electoral society poll of LAB 30 UKIP 25 CON 23 GRN 12 LD 10 and factoring in relative support for each party as a % increase/decrease on overall national share.

  33. I’m not trying to pile on, and I’m no mathematician (and PR systems give me a headache to boot), but I’m sure a party needs alot more than 12% to get a second seat here. I believe someone else was mentioning something like 18%.

  34. I think the Euros use a system where you halve the highest number award a seat halve the next highest number award a seat etc until there are no more seats so with 10 seats available, you should be able to get 2 seats on 12% by my calculations; the algebra does work out.

  35. I hope you’ll understand that I’d like a second opinion on that. If it’s right, fair enough, but 2 seats on 12% just strikes me as too low a bar, hence why I’d like a check from someone else.

    But in anycase, even if it is 12%, I’m still sceptical. 2009 was a prime time for minor parties, but now it’s all about UKIP, and not to mention the retreats you’ve suffered in some of your more favourable areas. And I still fully expect Labour to overtake the Greens.

  36. It depends on whether I’ve been using the right system haha I think Andrea may have found a mistake which has mucked up the seat numbers for on or two regions. Oops!

  37. Actually even using the correct method it still yields 3/3/2/2

  38. The threshold on my estimate for 2 seats is anything >10.6%.

  39. You think the Greens will double twice the LD vote? You’re in a fantasy world. I doubt they will even out poll them in this region (or any other with the possible, but still unlikely exception of London)

  40. Because the big Lib Dem falls will be in the north and midlands, where the Greens don’t have much potential.

  41. A recent Electoral Society poll of 8,000 put up these vote shares: LAB 30 UKIP 25 CON 23 GRN 12 LD 10. Even adjusted for others, the Greens are ahead of the LDs on 10.5%. The SE is one of their better areas compared to nationally and the LD vote is higher so the Greens have more to gain and the LDs more to lose. I only suggested a 2.5% Green increase which is a lot less proportionally than 2009 as is to be expected and with most of this coming from the LDs, along with Lab and especially UKIP taking a few percent from the LDs, I don’t think a LD figure less than 10% is unfounded. Maybe 5% is a bit harsh, I’ll adjust for others and be a bit more generous to the LDs, and you can see whether my estimate is reasonable.

  42. And I did say that I was swapping Lab/Grn so Grn would be on 12 %.

  43. But the LD vote in the south east is focused on long-held strongholds like Lewes and Portsmouth South. Their vote here will be sticky, whilst further north their vote, being largely concentrated in university cities, will drop like a stone. The university vote in the north will go largely to Labour not the Greens.

  44. UKIP 30.5 (4)
    CON 29.3 (3)
    LAB 14.4 (2)
    GRN 11.7 (1)
    OTH 7.2 (N/A)
    LD 6.9 (0)
    Should the Greens be able to overtake Labour, they may take a 2nd seat- I perhaps overstated that with my previous estimate.

  45. ‘A recent Electoral Society poll of 8,000 put up these vote shares: LAB 30 UKIP 25 CON 23 GRN 12 LD 10’

    WoC, I’m going to sound harsh, but for how long you’ve been with us you really shouldn’t be making the mistake of taking just one poll and thinking it means something. Trends, m’dear boy. Trends.

    A poll which has UKIP above the Conservatives, even though the Conservatives have been trending up of late, and a poll which shows the Greens above the LDs, when I haven’t seen any other polls of late to that effect, is one you really shouldn’t be flying in our faces as proof that your predictions are correct.

  46. Was that a poll for the Euro elections specifically?

    If not it looks mighty strange

  47. Ah, yes. Would make more sense if it was for the Euros, but even then I can’t recall other polls saying the Greens are ahead of the LDs (but then again, I haven’t paid much attention to Euro polls). And my point still stands about the folly of taking one poll and saying it means something.

  48. Yes it was a Euro poll by some esteemed electoral society thingy haha and I know I shouldn’t take a single poll but it’s the only one I’ve seen and I’ve made sure to factor in relative support by doing 2010 regional support/2010 national * vote share in this poll; adjusted for others.

  49. For areas where the Green vote share is really low e.g. 0.5% or less, I estimated what the share would have been had they stood in all constituencies and adjusted if things didn’t look right.

  50. Lib Dem candidates:

    1. Catherine Bearder – MEP since 2009
    2. Antony Hook – Stood Dover 2001 & 2005, barrister.
    3. Dinti Batstone – Stood London 2009 Euros
    4. Giles Goodall – Chair Brussels & Europe Lib Dems, former SPAD to Lib Dem MPs/MEPs
    5. Ian Bearder – Brussels-based communications officer at an international affairs company (assume related to Catherine Bearder)
    6. Allis Moss – Chichester-based journalist and broadcaster
    7. Steve Sollitt- Stood Basingstoke 2001, Southampton Test 2005, former Southampton and Eastleigh cllr
    8. Bruce Tennent – Hampshire & Eastleigh cllr
    9. John Vincent – Stood Crawley 2010
    10. Alan Bullion – Stood Sevenoaks 2010

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