South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,547 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. Tim “why settle for a majority of 50 when you could have one of 100”

    Today that looks more like why settle for an overall majority of 100 when you could have 125+.

  2. I really like the proposals for Aldershot.

    Before Feb 1974 the most of what is now NE Hants was part of the Aldershot constituency.

    In recent years it has retreated to being a compact urban constituency straddling one side of the River Blackwater.

    Aldershot had become peripheral to the constituency that was centered on Farnborough and also included Blackwater, Hawley and part of Yateley.

    The new Aldershot constituency makes Aldershot the heart of the constituency with Farnborough to the North and Church Crookham to the West. Blackwater, Hawley and part of Yateley have been removed and replaced with Church Crookham.

    Church Crookham is a more appropriate for Aldershot because of its strong connection with the military.

  3. 16 seats unchanged in the South East:

    Basingstoke.
    Beaconsfield.
    Bracknell.
    Eastbourne.
    Eastleigh.
    East Surrey.
    East Worthing & Shoreham.
    Epsom & Ewell.
    Gosport.
    Guildford.
    Hastings & Rye.
    Maidenhead.
    Reigate.
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey.
    South West Surrey.
    Witney.

  4. Surrey has always been very stable as far as constituency boundaries are concerned – the 11 always about the right electorate.
    Amusing that both Maidenhead and Witney are unchanged.

  5. Diane James has quit UKIP

  6. Diane James is another blue Kipper that potentially wants to rejoin the Conservatives at the next election. “if they had a manifesto that I could sign up to, and if they gave me a reasonable chance – i.e. a seat that was capable of being won.”

    Good luck with that one

  7. Apparently over 20% of gay men in French are going to vote FN:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39641822/why-gay-french-men-are-voting-far-right

    [As discussed on here previously – gay men are generally liberal until their rights are threatened was the consensus from HH et al]

  8. Ladbrokes have shown all of the models.

    Most averaged a Con majority of 60.

    YouGov’s said short of a majority by 46.

    So all were equally wrong as the electorate settled in the middle on Polling Day.

    I understand Ashcroft is to ask a Q re terror attacks but I don’t know if this is just in London seats to see if there was a ‘Madrid effect’ there or whether it was simply due to Remainers switching.

    Thrasher said they will try to look into whether new registrations or young voters affected results when we have more data on the demographic of turnout. As whilst there’s lots of evidence of more students voting in university cities clearly this only affected a few seats such as Hallam, Cambridge, Norwich, Bristol and so on (and most of these were LD/Lab fights).

  9. Two Tory MEPs have set up new organisations today. Daniel Hannan has launched the Institute for Free Trade: pretty much what you’d expect, it appears to be a bog-standard right-wing think-tank. Henri Campbell-Bannerman’s is potentially more interesting: the Campaign for Conservative Democracy, a pressure group to move control of the decisions made by the Conservative Party from CCHQ to the membership. Among their original demands is to allow the membership to directly elect the party’s chairman and deputy leader.

    If long-term Tory Party members ever want to get listened to, now is probably a good time for them to strike. They can argue with good reason that they couldn’t possibly screw up the next election as badly as CCHQ screwed up the last one.

  10. The lack of ability for members to have an input in the Tory party is an issue.

    When I was in UKIP we used to have a monthly association meeting with the committee & members, talking about various things… with the Tories it seems like members are very much on the outer and you have to get yourself into the association executive – either by standing for a position or being co-opted on.

    The party chairman should be directly elected for sure.

    And yes, short of CCHQ being infiltrated by Labour supporters, the national campaign for the next GE couldn’t be worse.

  11. So, two Tory MEPs have had the whip taken away, after voting against moving onto the next stage of the Brexit negotiations.

    https://order-order.com/2017/10/07/whip-withdrawn-tory-meps-voted-british-interests/

    I guess the situation boils down to whether British MEPs representatives of Britain, or of the European Union. Whose interests are they meant to be looking out for here?

  12. I’m as staunch a Remainer as anyone on here but it’s unforgiveable to be so disloyal to your country as to do that (that goes for the Labour and Lib Dem MEPs who did the same too). Peoples’ livelihoods are at stake in this process, too many politicians on both sides are seeing it as a game.

  13. Actually, now I think about it, not only were they acting against Britain’s interests, they were acting against the EU’s interests too. The no-deal scenario isn’t good for either side.

  14. Can you not accept that some British people think there is no chance whatsoever of the EU dropping its stated position and that hence the UK’s best interests would be served by recognizing that?

    Incidentally, the vote in the European Parliament was by 527 votes to less than 93. The ‘divorce’ settlement still requires the approval in a vote by the same European Parliament, while any future trading agreement – such as the UK wants to start discussing now- would require the unanimous agreement of every one of the 27 EU Member States. In that context, it seems perfectly reasonable to me to think that the UK is being hopelessly over-optimistic about the way things are likely to develop.

  15. Accepting an unfortunate reality is not the same thing as voting in support of it.

  16. No quite, no.

    But what practical purpose would have been served by the UK’s MEPs all voting in support of the present government’s stance? The vote itself would still have passed by a majority of around 400, and the UK’s MEPs voting ‘en bloc’ would only have highlighted how far apart the two sides are.

    I cannot see how they might have created any further influence or leverage with all the EU’s 27 Member States, whose unanimous agreement will in due course be needed for the kind of comprehensive new trade deal we want.

  17. But politics isn’t only about practical purpose is it. It is about putting on a show. I don’t think eg peers wearing ridiculous ermine robes serves any practical purpose, or MPs forced to only describe each other as honourable members.

  18. “But politics isn’t only about practical purpose is it. It is about putting on a show. ”

    I’m happy to accept that the MEPs in question failed to “put on a show” in support of the present government’s position. It’s the stuff about being “disloyal to your country” where I think that some kind of practical effect needs to be demonstrated.

    In connection with this, here’s a link to a mercifully short EU briefing about what the ratification procedure is for the EU to enter into a ‘mixed agreement’ which any new EU/UK trading agreement would be. By my calculations such an agreement needs the approval of 35 different national and regional parliaments (and it was 37 before the UK decided to leave).

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2016/593513/EPRS_BRI(2016)593513_EN.pdf

  19. On the substance you are preaching to the converted. Even a minimal deal with the EU is going to be very tough to achieve.

  20. I think May prattling on about ‘No deal being better than a bad deal’ prior to the election made a lot of middle class Londoners in particular very anxious. To be fair to her, her tone has shifted since the election. I used to think she was a closet Leaver, but now I’m pretty convinced she’s a Remainer (albeit not a passionate one) who finds the whole Brexit process tiresome and detrimental to Britain.

  21. There is a worrying tendency for the Government to accuse anyone who doubts what they are doing of “damaging” Britain. This from Liam Fox, and directed mainly at the BBC, for example:

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/liam-fox-promises-to-sign-40-free-trade-deals-the-second-after-brexit-2017-10

    Now Fox might or might not be able to get the 40 Trade deals ready within the next 18 months, as he says he hopes to do. But if he is unable to achieve this, would it really be the fault of his political opponents and/or the BBC?

  22. I agree that no deal is better than a bad deal, in the sense that we shouldn’t just allow someone to bully us into something rubbish and sign up to it anyway.

    She’s between a rock and hard place, what she ought to have done was raised the point that a deal was offered to us by David Cameron whether to stay in on the renegotiated (haha) terms or leave.

    The lack of planning for a leave vote by the previous government was alarming and reckless, of course he cut and ran immediately afterwards so wasn’t left to deal with the mess he was responsible for.

    As for the MEPs, I think they ought to have voted for talks to progress, though I think as mentioned above there is a question of whether MEPs see themselves as representatives of the electorate or EU servants.

    Most of the Labour delegation is extremely enthused by the EU, more so than the PLP in Westminster… contrary to the Tories who are broadly Eurosceptics, even if some support continued membership for whatever reason.

    A loose relationship with the EU based around free trade, common standards for this that and the other would have secured popular support, rather than a Brexit at any cost, or us basically being a province of a single country, which is where some high profile European politicians want to drive us all.

  23. James E, the whole issue of the extent to which a post-Brexit trade deal would be vulnerable to single country veto is more complicated than your comments suggest.

    As this blog post by Cambrige law academic, Prof Kenneth Armstrong, explains [https://brexittime.com/2017/05/16/brexit-implications-of-opinion-215/] it’s all to do with which aspects of any deal fall within the scope of the EU’s exclusive powers and which don’t. The latter have to be agreed unanimously, while the former can be agreed via QMV.

    This is a matter that has been the subject of recent litigation regarding an agreement between the EU and Singapore. Prof Armstrong explains that “it is the non-direct investment and the investor-state dispute resolution mechanisms which are the problematic areas of the EU-Singapore deal. But the bulk of this comprehensive agreement does fall within the scope of EU exclusivity and could form the basis for an ambitious Brexit trade deal following the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. While the new generation of bilateral EU trade deals do involve chapters on investment and investor-state dispute resolution, it would not be inconceivable to negotiate a parallel bilateral investment treaty (‘BIT’) between the UK and the EU as well as its more substantive Brexit trade deal. In this way, any difficulties with ratification of the BIT would not produce contagion effects to threaten the agreement and conclusion of a trade deal”.

    That suggests to me that there is at least some hope that some sort of deal could be reached that would not require unanimous ratification.

  24. Thanks for that, Kieran.

    What has been discussed so far is the ‘divorce’ deal which would not be a mixed agreement, so could be passed by QMV. However, what Prof Armstrong concludes is that it is uncertain whether any transitional agreement could also be concluded without the ratification by each of the EU27 (and their 35 parliaments). In other words, it is possible that even the request for a 2-year transitional period would need such ratification.

    So when you say ‘some sort of deal’ which might not need unanimous ratification I assume that per the article you quote you do not hold out any hope for a lasting or comprehensive trade agreement with the EU needing only QMV?

  25. By “some sort of deal” I meant a trade deal (albeit one that wouldn’t include what Armstrong refers to as the ‘BIT’ provisions which relate to issues that would require unanimity).

    I don’t claim any kind of expertise in this field, but reading that blog by someone who is it appears that there is a potential way round the requirement for unanimity for most aspects of a trade deal.

  26. I don’t think there is any prospect of a long-term UK/EU trade deal which would not require unanimity for the EU27. This is reflected in Professor Armstrong’s conclusion, where he states that the issue he is addressing applies to any possible transition:

    “Transition

    The complication, however, is in respect of any ‘transitional arrangements’. Such arrangements would act as a bridge between the UK’s status as a Member State, and its status as a ‘third country’. In terms of the EU’s preferred sequencing of negotiations, the discussion of transitional arrangements would form part of Phase II of the negotiations once sufficient progress has been made in Phase I dealing with citizenship rights, outstanding liabilities and border issues relating to the UK and Ireland. It would seem, then, that Article 50 provides a legal basis for such a transitional arrangements. But clearly that creates a potential tension if such arrangements proved to be a long-standing means of managing the UK’s relationship with the EU in that they would, over time, undermine the EU’s specific external trade policy powers. More likely, they will need to be time-limited in order to form part of a withdrawal agreement (or bundle of agreements) based on Article 50 TEU.

    All of which serves to reinforce the point that even if the UK and the EU can agree on what they both want, they may profoundly disagree as to the legal route to getting there and the timing of the stages of the process.”

  27. My reading of the whole post is that in the paragraphs you quote above he has moved on to discussing a seperate issue to the requirement for unanimity.

  28. Daniel Hannan is ordered to pay more than half a million Euros of EU funding, mostly spent on conferences in Kampala and Miami.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/13/daniel-hannan-mep-group-told-to-repay-half-a-million-in-eu-funds

  29. Nigel Farage has confirmed that he is now Leader of the Brexit Party and they’ll contest all Regions in the event the UK takes part in EU Elections in 2019.

    They’re also registered with the Electoral Commission to stand in elections in England, Wales, Scotland and NI, but I’m not yet aware of any standing for them in the local elections.

  30. I wouldn’t normally link a story from the Daily Mail, but it’s worth noting the reason why Nigel had to take over from the previous leader of this ‘Party’.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6832203/Leader-Farage-backed-Brexit-Party-resigns-anti-Muslim-tweets-revealed.html

  31. Brexit Party up to 34% in Eu election poll with Opinium. And up to 21% for the next general election. This will of course trigger lots of talk about how Farrage will win the next election, mostly from Labour members opposed to a May/Corbyn deal.

  32. He won’t win the next general election. The fundamental problem is that his party is running entirely off negative campaigning – it doesn’t even have a manifesto. That can work in second-order elections where it is possible to mobilise protest votes on a relatively low turnout, but when it comes to choosing the Prime Minister of this country, you do need an actual sales pitch. And any electoral platform the party tries to advance is bound to fracture the broad-tent coalition of the disillusioned that it is currently preying on.

  33. Just seen that poll – crikey! It also had the Tories on 11, slipping to fourth place behind the Lib Dems (who seem to have cannibalised Change UK.)

  34. ‘This will of course trigger lots of talk about how Farrage will win the next election’.

    You’re certainly triggering me BM11, although not in the way you think.

    You have more chance of being the next PM than Farage.

  35. Prediction for the South-East region:

    Brex: 5
    LD: 2
    Grn: 1
    Lab: 1
    Con: 1

  36. Europe Elects predicts that the Brexit Party will be the single largest national Party in the European Parliament.

  37. Have the Brexit Party announced which bloc they will join? I’m assuming they will be part of EFDD like UKIP used to be.

  38. No, not as yet. They and the DUP are non-aligned at the moment.

  39. Dan Hannan is predicting a total Tory MEP whipeout across the entire country. I can’t see that to be honest.

  40. I think this is what they call “expectation management.”

  41. Labour expect to lose their seat here. Could lose as much as half their vote.

  42. Tories expecting to lose all their seats throught the UK even the holding one here in the south east might be beyond them according to the times.

  43. Labour expected to be fourth in Brighton.

  44. Brex: 36.1% – 4 seats
    LDem: 25.7% – 3 seats
    Grn: 13.5% – 1 seat
    Con: 10.3% – 1 seat
    Lab: 7.3% – 1 seat
    ChUK: 4.2% – 0 seats
    UKIP: 2.2% – 0 seats.

  45. Thought Farage seemed a little flat when speaking at the declaration. Perhaps the BXP win wasn’t quite as overwhelming as he was expecting.

  46. Certainly polling had them closer to 40% nationally. I imagine they were held back by some leavers simply boycotting the vote.

    Funnily enough, probably more important to them than their own vote share is the fact that the Tories fell off a cliff and are consequently shit-scared of them. UKIP’s influence in British politics mpstly came through its effect on the Conservative Party rather than its own elected representatives, and it looks as if history is repeating itself.

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