South East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 751439 32.1% (+13.3%)
2. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 723571 30.9% (-3.8%)
3. Janice Atkinson (UKIP) (375720)
4. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (361786)
5. Anneliese Dodds (Labour) 342775 14.7% (+6.4%)
6. Diane James (UKIP) (250480)
7. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (241190)
8. Keith Taylor (Green) 211706 9.1% (-2.6%)
9. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) 187876 8% (-6.1%)
10. Ray Finch (UKIP) (187860)
. (Independence from Europe) 45199 1.9% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 17771 0.8% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 16909 0.7% (-3.6%)
. (Christian Peoples Alliance) 14893 0.6% (-0.9%)
. (Peace) 10130 0.4% (0%)
. (Socialist Party of GB) 5454 0.2% (n/a)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 2997 0.1% (-0.1%)
. (YOURvoice) 2932 0.1% (n/a)
. (Liberty GB) 2494 0.1% (n/a)
. (Harmony) 1904 0.1% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Nigel Farage (UKIP) born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Dan Hannan (Conservative) Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
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Janice Atkinson (UKIP) Press advisor. Contested Batley and Spen 2010 for the Conservatives (as Janice Small). MEP for South East since 2014
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Anneliese Dodds (Labour) Born 1978, Scotland. Educated at Oxford University. University lecturer. Contested Billericay 2005, Reading East 2010. MEP for South East since 2014
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Diane James (UKIP) Healthcare consultant. Waverley councillor since 2006, originally elected as an independent. Contested Eastleigh by-election 2012. MEP for South East since 2014
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Southend. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. MEP since 2010, succeeding upon Caroline Lucas`s election to Parliament.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.
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Ray Finch (UKIP) Engineer. Hampshire councillor. Contested Eastleigh 2010. MEP for South East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Dan Hannan (Conservative) 812288 34.8% (-0.4%)
2. Nigel Farage (UKIP) 440002 18.8% (-0.7%)
3. Richard Ashworth (Conservative) (406144)
4. Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) 330340 14.1% (-1.2%)
5. Caroline Lucas (Green) 271506 11.6% (+3.8%)
6. Nirj Deva (Conservative) (270763)
7. Marta Andreasen (UKIP) (220001)
8. James Elles (Conservative) (203072)
9. Peter Skinner (Labour) 192592 8.2% (-5.4%)
10. Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat) (165170)
. (BNP) 101769 4.4% (+1.4%)
. (English Democrats) 52526 2.2% (+0.9%)
. (Christian) 35712 1.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 21455 0.9% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 16767 0.7% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 15484 0.7% (n/a)
. (UK First) 15261 0.7% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 14172 0.6% (n/a)
. (Peace) 9534 0.4% (-0.2%)
. (Roman Party Ave!) 5450 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Dan Hannan (Conservative)Born 1971, Peru. Educated at Marlborough College and Oxford University. Journalist and former speechwriter. MEP for South East England since 1999. 
portrait
Nigel Farage (UKIP)born 1964, Farnborough. Educated at Dulwich College. Former commodity broker. A former Conservative he was a founder member of UKIP in 1993. Contested Itchen, Test and Avon in 1994 European election. Member of the European Parliament for South-East England since 1999. Contested Eastleigh by-election 1994, Salisbury 1997, Bexhill and Battle 2001, South Thanet 2005, Bromley and Chistlehurst 2006 by-election, Buckingham 2010. Leader of UKIP 2006-2009 and since 2010.
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Richard Ashworth (Conservative) Born 1947, Folkestone. Educated at Kings School Canterbury and Searle-Hayne College. Dairy farmer. Contested North Devon 1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Leader of the Conservative group in the European Parliament.
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Sharon Bowles (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Oxford. Educated at Reading University. Patent attorney. Contested Aylesbury 1992, 1997. MEP for South East England since 2005.
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Keith Taylor (Green) Born 1953, Rochford. Brighton and Hove councillor 1999-2010. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2001, 2005. Principal speaker for the Green party 2004-2006. MEP for South East England since 2010, replacing Caroline Lucas upon her election to Parliament.
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Nirj Deva (Conservative) Born 1948, Sri Lanka. Educated at Loughborough University. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 1992-1997. MEP for South East England since 1999. Appointed Deputy Lord Lieutenant for Greater London in 1985.
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Marta Andreasen (Conservative) Born 1954, Argentina. Former EU chief accountant, fired in 2005 for criticising the EU’s accounting policies. MEP for South East England since 2009. Defected to the Conservatives in February 2013 after falling out with Nigel Farage.
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James Elles (Conservative)Born 1949, London. Educated at Edinburgh University. MEP for Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire 1984-1989, Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire East 1994-1999, South East England since 1999.
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Peter Skinner (Labour)Born 1959, Oxford. Educated at St Josephs Secondary Modern, Orpington, and Bradford University. Former business and economics lecturer. MEP for West Kent 1994-1999. MEP for the South East since 1999.
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Catherine Bearder (Liberal Democrat)Born 1949. Educated at St Christophers, Letchworth. Former Cherwell councillor. Former Oxfordshire county councillor. Contested Banbury 1997, Henley 2001. Contested South-East region 1999, 2004. MEP for South East England since 2009.


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Comments - 1,679 Responses on “Europe South East”
  1. @rivers10 one more which I wrote an in depth contribution about today:

    Kingswood: Con by 5,161 (Con by 9,006)

  2. Rossendale and Darwen*: Con by 1,274 (Con by 5,654)

    *Used the results from the 2010 locals for two wards that didn’t vote in 2015 as these two elections weren’t that dissimilar. Labour obviously do miles better here locally than they do nationally (like most places).

    Even South Ribble is not an example of the converse:

    South Ribble**: Con by 5,511 (Con by 5,949)

    **Ward boundary changes make the result approximate. For the two wards that didn’t vote (Hesketh and Rufford) I used 2010 data for Hesketh which will broadly similar to how it would have voted had the ward been up in 2015. Rufford didn’t vote in 2010 either so I used the 2016 result, the Tory numerical lead would have been a tad larger had it voted in 2015 but nowhere near enough to make South Ribble an example of the Tories doing any better locally than nationally.

  3. Pepps
    Long post alert, just wanted to address every issue raised.

    What you’ve done there is provided a comparison between who carried the seat locally and nationally, that’s not what’s being discussed.

    You claimed Lab outperform locally, I said that’s incorrect, that in reality Labs vote in GE’s matches its vote in locals (for the most part) Comparing who carried the seat locally (and by what majority) to who won the seat in a GE (and again by what majority) is a totally different issue, I didn’t make any comment on the Tory vote maybe the Tories underperform in certain areas locally due to a preference for Lib Dem or independent local councillors? Something I’ll provide evidence for in a moment.

    This leads to another big issue though, the seats I chose in the Eastern region were for very careful reasons, they didn’t have any glaring examples of a strong Lib Dem local councillor base or a selection of independents who performed incredibly well etc etc all of which would make side by side comparisons pointless. In Bolton for example both Lab and the Tories massively underperformed locally to the tune of about 3,000 votes each. The seats I chose though were precisely to avoid such anomalous results. Morley and Outwood for example is frankly a daft comparison cos of the very locally strong Morley Independents and a probable Ed Balls effect in the GE.

    But lets have an example to demonstrate my initial point. Southampton Itchen stands out as one of the better examples to support your theory with Lab seemingly over performing to the tune of 1,000 votes. Also minimal pesky independent activity or odd local strength for certain smaller parties to worry about and muddle the results. But lets look in detail. GE vote share is the first number LE vote share is the second bracketed number.

    Southampton Itchen
    Lab=16,340 (16,021)
    Basically the same, Lab actually UNDER performed in the locals by 300 odd votes.
    Tories on the other hand…
    Tory=18,656 (17,181) So the Tories did much worse locally thus resulting in the anomaly you point out. Lab isn’t doing better its the fact that the Tories are doing worse, I don’t claim to know why this is the case but that’s what’s going on here.

    Lets also look at Norwich N which you mentioned. First figure is the GE vote, second bracketed figure LE vote.

    Tories=19,052 (16,990)
    Lab= 14,589 (14,500)

    So again Lab the same Tories doing worse.

    How about Stevenage since you highlighted it as an example of where “Labour blatantly obviously over perform locally”

    Lab=16,336 (16,394)
    Tories=21,291 (16,941)

    So once again Lab basically the same while the Tories do worse.

    Its the same across most of the seats you list, you have simply made the wrong comparisons. Now this obviously opens up the question I alluded to earlier as to why the Tories underperform locally in marginal seats. Based on my experiences in three seats I know very well (Warrington South, Sefton Central and Wirral South) I attribute it to what I deem “soft Tories” people who are not hugely enthused by the Cons but hate Lab more, vote Lib Dem locally (explains the Libs current or former strength locally in all three seats) but then vote Tories in the GE where it really matters.

    Alas that’s a totally different discussion. Fact is though that in most cases Lab do no better in locals compared to the GE.

  4. Ok rivers fair enough but I would contend you are making the wrong comparison as the margin between Con and Lab is a metric that is far more important than how many raw votes each individually manages to get (I probably worded what I was talking about wrong though). Thus when someone in Labour says ‘gee we did well we were narrowly ahead of the Tories in the local vote in seat X’ it is highly likely they would be behind be a significant margin in a general election in the exact same seat X if it was held on the same day (and that is not even considering the fact that oppositions typically over perform in midterm local elections while governments under perform)

    These things are indisputably true:
    1)Labour’s position relative to the Tories is almost always better in local elections compared to general elections.
    2)Local elections almost always underestimate the level of support for the government compared to the opposition.

    I feel like we might actually agree now lol :-).

  5. Have been away from UKPR for a few days. I remain reasonably happy with my proposals and didn’t really find many of the objections terribly persuasive. One of the weakest arguments was that I was wrong to cross Kent and East Sussex. As a traditional counties enthusiast, I absolutely accept that in an ideal world we should be merging the two halves of Sussex. However, the Commission is imposing a tight quota under which Kent is theoretically entitled to 16.41 seats. If you think you are going to achieve 16 sensible seats all within quota with an average electorate of 76,693 then good luck is all I can say…

  6. Perhaps the government will agree to go back to the existing more flexible rules on seat size, to help get the review through the commons and to reduce the necessity to cross counties, split wards and draw up awful seats.

    Labour are such a shambles it’s not as if the Tories need a tight quota to stay in power now.

  7. H Hemmelig- I agree- I’ve long thought a 5% quota too tight.

  8. It would tie in with May’s image of being, erm, less opportunistic than Cameron or Osborne (no bad thing IMO). Certainly, had Cameron found himself in May’s highly fortuitous position he’d have rushed to call an early election faster than a rat up a drainpipe.

  9. I don’t see any problem with ward splitting.

  10. ‘Certainly, had Cameron found himself in May’s highly fortuitous position he’d have rushed to call an early election faster than a rat up a drainpipe.’

    The real opportunist would wait for the implementation of the boundary review

    Why settle fir a majority of 50 when you could have one that exceeds 100

    I think May is very opportunistic anyhow – I don’t think she has any real intention of doing many of the things she said she would when she was first outside number 10 – look at the way she has bowed over to the soft drinks industry with her plans to tackle childhood obesity and her outright refusal to condemn the greedy Sir Philip Green – but by saying she managed to hoodwink many journalists and voters into thinking she would

    Like her cabinet, May is very much to the Right of Cameron and his cabinet

  11. Yes get the Boundary Review implemented and then win a huge majority

  12. So Oxford West and Abingdon would have a notional Tory majority of 11,171

  13. Is that going to be your seat when you start uni?

  14. No. Trinity College is in the Carfax ward so I’ll be in a Labour seat for 1st and 2nd year (!)

  15. Why the fascination with Oxford West then? Have the BC done something weird there as well?

  16. No I just wanted to see what the seat would look like? Why the fascination with every single boundary change happening?

  17. Don’t take offence I was just curious 🙂

  18. Well I don’t see why, you’re the one engaging in a masturbation session

  19. Jeez man what’s got into you?

  20. Jesus Christ why are we resorting to masturbating metaphors

  21. “Why the fascination with Oxford West then?”

    Just an odd comment that I didn’t really understand

  22. Maxim
    I just figured it was a random seat to comment on in that as from what I can tell you have no personal links to it (that’s why I asked about uni) so for you to comment on it I assumed the BC must have done something stupid, that’s all I was wondering.

  23. Tim “why settle for a majority of 50 when you could have one of 100”

    Today that looks more like why settle for an overall majority of 100 when you could have 125+.

  24. I really like the proposals for Aldershot.

    Before Feb 1974 the most of what is now NE Hants was part of the Aldershot constituency.

    In recent years it has retreated to being a compact urban constituency straddling one side of the River Blackwater.

    Aldershot had become peripheral to the constituency that was centered on Farnborough and also included Blackwater, Hawley and part of Yateley.

    The new Aldershot constituency makes Aldershot the heart of the constituency with Farnborough to the North and Church Crookham to the West. Blackwater, Hawley and part of Yateley have been removed and replaced with Church Crookham.

    Church Crookham is a more appropriate for Aldershot because of its strong connection with the military.

  25. 16 seats unchanged in the South East:

    Basingstoke.
    Beaconsfield.
    Bracknell.
    Eastbourne.
    Eastleigh.
    East Surrey.
    East Worthing & Shoreham.
    Epsom & Ewell.
    Gosport.
    Guildford.
    Hastings & Rye.
    Maidenhead.
    Reigate.
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey.
    South West Surrey.
    Witney.

  26. Surrey has always been very stable as far as constituency boundaries are concerned – the 11 always about the right electorate.
    Amusing that both Maidenhead and Witney are unchanged.

  27. Diane James has quit UKIP

  28. Diane James is another blue Kipper that potentially wants to rejoin the Conservatives at the next election. “if they had a manifesto that I could sign up to, and if they gave me a reasonable chance – i.e. a seat that was capable of being won.”

    Good luck with that one

  29. Apparently over 20% of gay men in French are going to vote FN:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/39641822/why-gay-french-men-are-voting-far-right

    [As discussed on here previously – gay men are generally liberal until their rights are threatened was the consensus from HH et al]

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