Scotland European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 389503 29% (-0.1%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 348219 25.9% (+5.1%)
3. Ian Duncan (Conservative) 231330 17.2% (+0.4%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (194752)
5. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (174110)
6. David Coburn (UKIP) 140534 10.5% (+5.2%)
. (Scottish Green) 108305 8.1% (+0.8%)
. (Liberal Democrats) 95319 7.1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 13639 1% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10216 0.8% (-1.7%)
. (No2EU) 6418 0.5% (-0.4%)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Ian Duncan (Conservative) Born in Alyth. Educated at Alyth High School and St Andrews University. Public affairs professional and former Scottish Parliamentary clerk. Contested Aberdeen South 2003 Scottish election. MEP for Scotland since 2014.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
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David Coburn (UKIP) Born in Glasgow. Businessman. Contested Old Bexley and Sidcup 2010. MEP for Scotland since 2014.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 321007 29.1% (+9.4%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 229853 20.8% (-5.6%)
3. Struan Stevenson (Conservative) 185794 16.8% (-0.9%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (160504)
5. George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) 127038 11.5% (-1.6%)
6. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (114927)
. (Scottish Green) 80442 7.3% (+0.5%)
. (UKIP) 57788 5.2% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 27174 2.5% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 22135 2% (n/a)
. (Christian) 16738 1.5% (n/a)
. (Scottish Socialist) 10404 0.9% (-4.3%)
. Duncan Robertson (Independent) 10189 0.9% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9693 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 6257 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Struan Stevenson (Conservative) Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
Comments - 613 Responses on “Europe Scotland”
  1. I think we need a reality check on this.

    33% would be the highest Conservative vote in Scotland since Feb 74 (32.9%).

    I don’t claim any expertise on Scottish politics but given the ebbs and flows of the last 40 years Is this really credible?

  2. To those staring in disbelief at the Scottish polls – do remember that we went through all this just two years ago. In fact I’ll pick out a couple of my own comments from that time:

    On Ross, Skye & Lochaber: “Charles Kennedy is bombproof”

    On Paisley & Renfrewshire South: “Forget the polls, this is a fight between a girl barely out of school and the Shadow Foreign Secretary”

    I think people are at risk of falling into the trap of status-quo bias again.

  3. Fair point but I will remain sceptical for now

  4. I do agree with that: we should remain cautious about making any firm predictions until nearer the time…

  5. True.

    Although after all you don’t even need to be that high in the polls to win 10 as the Tories did in 1992 in Scotland.

    Although I tend to agree that 5 remains far more likely.

    The LDs should regain 2 or 3 from the SNP too.

  6. Whilst it’s true that a week is a long time in politics, this article illustrates how short a timescale the Parties face:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39658426

    The deadline for Labour applications for seats is today;

    The Tories aren’t even inviting applications.

    LDs expect to have all theirs in place this week.

    There’s 2 Bank Holiday weekends during the campaign.

    People will be voting (by post) in 4 weeks’ time.

  7. Polls on Scottish independence:

    Panelbase
    DK included:
    No 52% (-1)
    Yes 43% (+1)
    DK 5% (=)

    DK excluded:
    No 55% (-1)
    Yes 45% (+1)

    Survation
    DK included:
    No 47% (-1)
    Yes 42% (-1)
    DK 11% (+2)

    DK excluded
    No 53% (=)
    Yes 47% (=)

  8. Sorry Survation figures with DK are

    No 48 (=)
    Yes 43 (=)
    DK 9 (=)

  9. YouGov poll-

    SNP 41
    CON 28
    LAB 18
    LD 7

  10. I’m VERY surprised to see the SNP that low, but it’s only one poll.

  11. It does indicate the direction of travel set out in the last two polls which had the SNP on 43 and 44% of the vote respectively.

  12. Do I detect some (very slight) SNP > Lab swingback in the last few Scottish polls?

  13. Seems so but it’s extremely unlikely to be sustained in future polling without a wider Labour recovery during the election campaign.

  14. I suppose with the decline of the SNP from their 2015 height, Labour were always going to be a beneficiary in Scotland, despite the UK-wide Lab > Con swing in the polls.

    It’s just that they are now so far behind in the seats they previously held that it probably won’t result in any gains.

  15. If it does, it will probably be in places where they are so far ahead it makes little difference (eg Glasgow, which IIRC had just about the lowest turnout of anywhere in the UK in last year’s referendum).

  16. Right to be cautious and give every last cent to earn those votes.

    However, one key difference is that in 2010 the fear in Scotland (after decades of brainwashing to keep the fear strong, aided by Gordon Brown being a local lad) of a Tory gov was as strong as ever – therefore so was tactical voting to deprive Tories of seats, ie the ABT phenomenon.

    Now, after 7 years of Tory-led gov and everyone’s still alive, and also the fact that constitutional matters are much more front and centre, things are quite different. There will be as much ABNat voting as ABT voting, which has reduced, in this election. Therefore, aside from what the polls suggest and the increased Tory votes share vs 2010, Tory votes will yield more efficiently for them now.

  17. Is a Scottish Labour comeback on? Worrying obviously for the SNP but if that Labour figure continues to creep up it could scupper Tory chances in seats like East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh North, Edinburgh South, Edinburgh South West, Aberdeen South and Stirling. All target seats for the Tories where Labour were previously the challenger to the SNP.

  18. The Conservatives were only 4% behind the SNP on the Aberdeen South boundaries in 2016 when the SNP took 46.5% of the vote nationally and the Conservatives took 22% of the vote. Seems a fairly safe bet to me.

  19. NTY UK
    The Conservatives were only 4% behind the SNP on the Aberdeen South boundaries in 2016 when the SNP took 46.5% of the vote nationally and the Conservatives took 22% of the vote. Seems a fairly safe bet to me.
    April 28th, 2017 at 9:50 am

    Who for?

  20. The Conservatives obviously.

    They are up at least 6% in the polls and the SNP are down at least 2%. That’s double what’s needed on universal swing for the Conservatives to gain the constituency relative to the 2016 Holyrood election. And you would expect the swing to be greater than average in a seat like Aberdeen South. So on current polling it is a safe bet for the Conservatives to pick it up, more so than East Renfrewshire.

  21. I was looking at the Yougov poll of Scotland for the Times and noticed that Ruth Davidson + Nicola Sturgeon are basically equals in terms of approval ratings, with both at about +17%.

    Interestingly, Ruth Davidson is about as popular with Lib Dems as with Tories, albeit based on the crossbreaks. Theresa May also does relatively well with Lib Dem voters. This reinforces the suspicion that Tory/Lib Dem tactical voting will be the strongest in June.

    I’m not sure about Aberdeen South. I think that NTY UK has made a good case that it could go Tory, but I think it’s a toss-up right now.

  22. In seats like Aberdeen South there are a multitude of voting scenarios. Look at the LibDems. They used to poll really well here before being swept away. Can Labour build on the sniff of a recovery? The result here is far from clear cut and is one of a number of seats where if the unionist votes drop perfectly for the Conservatives they will take it. If not SNP will hold.

  23. It’s fairly simple: Aberdeen South had a relatively weak Remain vote relative to its demographics, there is a big unionist vote there for the Conservatives to soak up and the SNP vote is inflated in that constituency relative to the referendum result of 65% No.

    All the indicators suggest that on current polling it will be an easy pick up for the party, even in the worst polls for the Conservatives!

  24. Easy pick up for the Conservatives. Sorry Scotty but you have to be realistic based on the polls. I accept that the SNP could hold on in East Renfrewshire, Edinburgh South West, Moray etc. based on current polling (unlikely as it might be for them to hold all of them), but Aberdeen South would go Conservative.

  25. As I’ve said even if we HALF the universal swing to the Conservatives in Aberdeen South they would still take it comfortably!

  26. Not necessarily. They were further ahead of the Conservatives in East Renfrewshire in 2016 (8%) and that seat had a much stronger Remain vote to Aberdeen South. Also the SNP vote was completely squeezed in 216 relative to the 2014 Yes vote of 37% in East Renfrewshire.

  27. In Aberdeen South the SNP took 40% of the vote: the Yes vote there was only 35% Yes so theoretically there should be a stronger swing away from the SNP in Aberdeen South compared with East Renfrewshire.

  28. Ploppy and NTY,

    The Conservatives might take all of these target seats. However, for them to do so they need help from the other unionist parties to vote tactically for them. If they achieve that “perfect storm” they will win if everything drops right for them. The SNP will have their own guaranteed support, no ifs, no buts. Probably that is why the bookies have the SNP favourites in Aberdeen South.

  29. Again, no, they could take Aberdeen South with half the universal swing so on current polling it’s going Conservative.

  30. Would I be correct in saying that at that Holyrood election in 2016, the Tory vote was swelled by tactical voting from the LibDems in order to try and defeat the SNP?

  31. Probably vice versa in places like North East Fife

  32. Not in aberdeen South, no, because their vote was higher on the regional list vote. Also they were 6%* behind the SNP in Aberdeen South in 2016 my mistake.

  33. Having completed my 2016 Scottish Parliament notionals ( available from here: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10073/target-seat-lists?page=2 ), I can now make a fair guess as to how current polling would translate in to seats in Scotland.

    Across the last three opinion polls conducted in Scotland the polling average was:
    SNP 43%
    CON 30%
    LAB 16%
    LD 7%

    My notionals would suggest that in seat terms this would breakdown as:
    SNP 42-47
    CON 9-12
    LD 3-4
    LAB 0-1

    Conservative GAINS from SNP-
    Aberdeen South
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Edinburgh South West
    Moray
    Perth and North Perthshire
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    Too close to call:
    Gordon (Leaning Conservative)
    Ochil and South Perthshire (Leaning Conservative)
    Stirling (Leaning SNP)

    Lib Dem GAINS from SNP-
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife

    Too close to call:
    East Dunbartonshire (Leaning Lib Dem)

    SNP GAINS from Labour-
    Too close to call:
    Edinburgh South (Leaning SNP)

    With too close to call removed (my best guess):
    SNP 44 (-12)
    CON 11 (+10)
    LD 4 (+3)
    LAB 0 (-1)

  34. On the more dramatic figure of 44% SNP 33% CON added to the list of Conservative gains above would be (too close to call but leaning Conservative):
    Angus
    Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

  35. On a universal swing the Conservatives would also be in with a chance of gaining Edinburgh South, but I’m skeptical that they’ll do as well there given the huge Remain vote, the fact that it is Labour’s only constituency in Scotland and Conservative tactical voting for Labour is still very promininent in the area and that the SNP were already down around the referendum Yes vote in 2016, so are much less likely to lose more votes over to the Conservatives here compared to elsewhere in the country.

  36. Seats being defended today in the Locals in Scotland:

    SNP 438 Cllrs
    Labour 395
    Ind 198
    Con 112
    LD 70
    Green 74

  37. How high can the Conservatives go? Could they double their representation? Or is there not quite that much scope?

  38. Any idea when we can expect the first Scottish results? Overnight or is counting not until tomorrow?

  39. Scottish council elections are STV so they take a while. I would imagine results will trickle in over the course of Friday afternoon. According to the BBC, the first expected declaration is Orkney at around 11 o’clock.

  40. @ Paul D –

    Counting in all of Scotland’s 32 local authorities doesn’t start until between 08:00 and 09:30 on Friday 5.

    Expected declaration times for all areas available from here:
    election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php

  41. Thanks for that. Nothing too exciting to look forward to tonight then

  42. Of the early declarations in Scotland I would be looking out for Stirling most of all – if the Conservative don’t come first there then that might raise some doubt on how accurate the opinion polls actually are here.

    I would also be looking out for which wards the Conservatives poll first in in Angus: if they take the highest share of first preference votes in places like Forfar and Brechin that will be a good sign for them.

    Cumnock, Doon Valley and Ballochmyle could prove another interesting contest in East Ayrshire – Labour, the Conservatives and the SNP will all be hoping to do well here.

    And later on in the evening will be the big one: Edinburgh. The Conservatives, Labour and SNP will all be hoping to poll first in the city, and the Liberal Democrats will be hoping for a recovery in the west of the city following the Brexit vote and their victory in Edinburgh Western at last year’s Scottish Parliament election.

  43. Andrew Neil said BBC2 will have coverage re Locals in E & W tonight after BBC1’s This Week.

    There’s also a programme tomorrow on BBC2, 9am – 1pm.

  44. Clackmannanshire will also be interesting, because it contains a lot of very different areas that resemble other parts of the country. Alloa, Tullibody, Menstrie, and Dollar seem like different worlds sometimes!

    It was when Clackmannanshire voted “Naw” that I knew that “Aye” were stuffed. The final result was very similar to the Clackmannanshire result…

    Stirling is also a pretty indicative council area, albeit a Tory-leaning one.

  45. And a seat in Paisley, which is supposedly one of Scotland’s most deprived seats. They also won their first ever seat in the Western Isles.

  46. All in all the Tories more than doubled their representation – from 112 up to 276

  47. For the locals last week – I get a Conservatives lead over the SNP in first preference votes as shown below in brackets (ordered from highest to lowest). Some of these are exact as boundaries conform exactly to Westminster seat (i.e. East Renfrewshire or Moray) – others have a degree of estimation based on rough visual apportioning of split wards

    Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (22%)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale (19%)
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine (18%)
    East Renfrewshire (14%)
    Dumfries & Galloway (13%)
    Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock (7%)
    Edinburgh South West (7%)
    Aberdeen South (6%)
    Gordon (6%)
    Ochil & Perthshire South (5%)
    Banff & Buchan (5%)
    Perth & Perthshire North (4%)
    Moray (4%)
    Angus (3%)
    Ayrshire Central (3%)
    Stirling (2%)

    I think there might have been one or two others (Dunbartonshire East, Edinburgh South) where the Tories probably got most first preference votes, but haven’t looked at them in detail. The list above is quite striking in some ways – Aberdeenshire looks to be particularly strong – funny that the leads in Gordon and Banff & Buchan are bigger than North Perthshire and Moray! Edinburgh South West and Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock also rank much higher than Stirling.

  48. Thank you david, that’s very interesting 😮

  49. Latest YouGov poll consistent with what we’ve seen so far:
    42% SNP
    29% Con
    19% Lab
    6% LD

    On independence:
    Don’t Know included
    49% No (=)
    39% Yes (-1)
    8% Don’t Know (=)

    Don’t Know excluded
    55% No (=)
    45% Yes (=)

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