Scotland European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 389503 29% (-0.1%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 348219 25.9% (+5.1%)
3. Ian Duncan (Conservative) 231330 17.2% (+0.4%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (194752)
5. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (174110)
6. David Coburn (UKIP) 140534 10.5% (+5.2%)
. (Scottish Green) 108305 8.1% (+0.8%)
. (Liberal Democrats) 95319 7.1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 13639 1% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10216 0.8% (-1.7%)
. (No2EU) 6418 0.5% (-0.4%)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Ian Duncan (Conservative) Born in Alyth. Educated at Alyth High School and St Andrews University. Public affairs professional and former Scottish Parliamentary clerk. Contested Aberdeen South 2003 Scottish election. MEP for Scotland since 2014.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
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David Coburn (UKIP) Born in Glasgow. Businessman. Contested Old Bexley and Sidcup 2010. MEP for Scotland since 2014.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 321007 29.1% (+9.4%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 229853 20.8% (-5.6%)
3. Struan Stevenson (Conservative) 185794 16.8% (-0.9%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (160504)
5. George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) 127038 11.5% (-1.6%)
6. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (114927)
. (Scottish Green) 80442 7.3% (+0.5%)
. (UKIP) 57788 5.2% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 27174 2.5% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 22135 2% (n/a)
. (Christian) 16738 1.5% (n/a)
. (Scottish Socialist) 10404 0.9% (-4.3%)
. Duncan Robertson (Independent) 10189 0.9% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9693 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 6257 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Struan Stevenson (Conservative) Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
Comments - 707 Responses on “Europe Scotland”
  1. YouGov Scottish regional poll:

    SNP 38
    Brex 21
    LD 11
    Lab 10
    Grn 9
    Con 6

    In terms of seats, that’s SNP 3. Brex 2, LD 1. Personally I’d be stunned if the Labour Party were wiped out here, though I now expect the Tories to be.

  2. The first opening of the postal votes took place today. I won’t of course reveal any %s but I’m told from both a Labour and a LD Cllr that both were down on last time.

    Not particularly surprising, but it’s nice to see some evidence that the recent polls are telling a tale that may be true.

  3. ” I’m told from both a Labour and a LD Cllr that both were down on last time……but it’s nice to see some evidence that the recent polls are telling a tale that may be true.”

    aren’t recent polls telling that LDs are up?

  4. Naively you would expect, since 55% of Scots voted to stay in the UK and 62% of them voted to stay in the EU, that the only party unambiguously in favour of both ought to be doing quite well.

  5. Mind you, these Scottish figures come from the Scotland subsample (195 people) of latest yougov national poll rather than from a proper Scottish poll though

  6. I was speaking of the Euros as a whole (and in the NW specifically re postals), not Scotland.

    But yes, I’d imagine LDs are up on 2014 at least, if only cos it’d be difficult to fall much lower – unless they meant down on the last opening (the Locals), as many politicians forget how low a % of the vote the main Parties always receive in the Euros.

  7. I realise each day breaks a new record lately, but I just spotted from YouGov that only 7.5% of pensioners intend to vote Labour in these Euros. Surely a new record low? It’s even lower than the % of under 30s intending to vote Cons.

  8. Scotland region prediction:

    SNP: 3
    Brex: 1
    LD: 1
    Grn: 1

    Scotland polls have got really bad for Labour, one recently put them on 6%! A wipeout is coming.

    On a really good day, the Brexit Party could get a second seat here, but I think I’ve already been generous enough to them in my other predictions.

  9. What poll has them in 6%?

    Panelbase published a poll yesterday with Labour joint 2nd on 16%

  10. BBC Politics Live (ex-Daily Politics) just showed a poll that said 3% are voting for Others.

    ie other than SNP 3%, Plaid 1%.

    It’s the first one I’ve seen do that.

    Other than Robinson are there any Inds expected to poll over 1% in a region?

  11. Matt: YouGov, I think.

    On reflection, I may have leaned too heavily on YouGov scores, as they tend to get the most heavily reported (YouGov being the most famous pollster), but they are significantly worse for Labour than other pollsters.

    That said, wasn’t it YouGov’s MLP projection which got the result almost spot on at the last general election?

  12. Prediction for Scotland:

    SNP 36% BXP 17% Lab 13% con 11% LD 10% Grn 10% Others 3%

    I can see Labour narrowly holding on to their seat but perhaps the Tories can’t be completely written off as the have a more reliable high turnout remainer rump in places like Stirling, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire, Perthshire that has always turned out on EU elections on a low turnout.

    On the other hand there could be unionist tactical voting for the brexit party to try and damage the SNP/Indy.

    Greens hard to say, are they strong enough in Glasgow, Edinburgh and Highlands to make up shortfall elsewhere.

    Ditto LDs with Aberdeen/shire, Edinburgh, Highlands, NE Fife, O&S.

    Can see Tories, Greens and LDs all around the same level. Although maybe LDs a wee bit higher and wee bit Cons lower now than what I’ve suggested?

  13. MRP

    though ComRes MRP out today is rather different to YouGov polls

  14. The Greens are interesting. In recent years the role of the Scottish Greens has been to be a repository of list vote for Yes voters who vote for SNP in the seat, as a way of gaming the AMS voting system to fill the chamber with as many indy supporters as possible. (Basically because SNP list votes are wasted as the list seats on the AMS system try to make the chamber as close to PR as possible, and since the SNP are already so overrepresented in the FPTP seats they pick up very little on the list.)

    Thing is, when you don’t have a list vote, and particularly on EU elections when the SNP and the Greens are part of the same parliamentary grouping anyway, there’s just not much point in voting for them.

  15. Bit more complex than that.

    A reasonable slice of green sympathsisers voted Labour in 2017 in Scotland (especially in Ian Murray’s seat) so there will be some softer unionists backing them who still think they stand for more than just independence unlike the SNP.

    They got 25% in the recent Leith walk by election gaining mainly at Labour,’s expense.

    They will probably do very well in Edinburgh, perhaps up to 18-20% in the city (up from 16% at the last EU elections) and also do well around central Glasgow and Highlands but hard to say if they can make it overall.

  16. Edinburgh turnouts –

    Edinburgh West 50.02%

    Edinburgh South 54.69% turnout.

    Edinburgh South West. 47.9% turnout.

  17. Will be interesting to see how the votes breakdown between the SNP and LD’s in these particular areas.

  18. LD bound to do well here – while Nicola gets a good reception on the people’s vote march not sure the unionist remainers (Plentiful in Edinburgh) will vote SNP.

  19. East Renfrewshire (48.4% turnout) is apparently (In Order)
    Tory
    SNP
    Liberal Democrat
    Brexit Party
    Labour Party

    Didn’t expect the tories to win any area of Scotland.

  20. To be honest I didnt expect the Tories to win any area of anywhere.

  21. Neither did i.
    Breixt party storming the election. Will finish about 36% (The increase being slightly lowered by higher remain turnout in very remain boroughs)

  22. Edinburgh (changes vs 2014);
    SNP – 33.4% (+10.3)
    Lib Dem – 23.0% (+14.1)
    Green – 13.9% (-2.3)
    Con – 10.0% (-9.4)
    Brex – 9.4% (+9.4)
    Lab – 7.1% (-16.0)
    ChUK – 1.9% (+1.9)
    UKIP – 1.1% (-6.7)
    Inds x2 – 0.3% (+0.3)

    Turnout 50.2 (+8.3)

  23. Western Isles won’t count for a while for religious reasons, but their votes won’t be enough to move any seats, so the unconfirmed result here is SNP 3 Brexit 1 LD 1 Con 1

  24. Tories do quite well here to hang on to their seat.

  25. Looks like the result in GB is

    BXP 29
    LD 16
    Lab 10
    Grn 7
    Con 4
    SNP 3
    PC 1

    Still waiting about northern ireland

  26. The top 5 Cons vote shares in the UK were all in Scotland, with Dumfries & G top, at over 21%.

  27. Scotland:
    SNP – 37.7%
    Brexit Party – 14.8%
    Lib Dems – 13.8%
    Conservatives – 11.6%
    Labour – 9.3%
    Greens – 8.2%

  28. And among other things, the confirmation of this result makes the Brexit Party the largest national party in the new European Parliament, with one more MEP than the CDU.

  29. It makes no practical difference because, even if we don’t Brexit for a long time if at all, many of their successful candidates were symbolic figures who are just not going to get involved in the day to day grunt work of being an MEP.

    For example Widdecombe is approaching her dotage and has a lucrative career as the pantomime puritan on trashy reality TV shows….is she really going to leave that behind to go endlessly trudging between Strasbourg and Brussels opining about duty free quotas for bananas? Of course she isn’t. Note that almost none of the former UKIP MEPs, a few of whom may have at least learned the ropes of the job, have been re-elected under the Brexit party banner.

  30. Scotland poll (Westminster VI, not a cross-tab)

    SNP: 43%
    Con: 20%
    Lab: 15%
    LD: 12%

    Seats:

    SNP: 51
    LD: 4 (same four they hold currently)
    Con: 3 (Dumfriesshire, Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire)
    Lab: 1 (Edinburgh South)

  31. What were the Scottish Westminster polls saying just before the 2017 election, anyone know?

    So we can compare with the actual result in vote shares – which may be useful in predicting the upcoming [unpredictable] election.

  32. NTY is still around here I think. From memory both Con and Lab surprised on the upside, certainly in terms of seat totals if not vote share.

  33. I think some people foresaw the Tories getting into double figures (though such people also thought the To4ies would clean up in England, so it may have been wishful thinking that happened to be correct). I don’t think anyone Labour would manage anything beyond holding Edinburgh South.

  34. Salmond’s trial certainly couldn’t be worse timed for the SNP. It might help both the Tories and Labour a bit, certainly in the most socially conservative seats like Glasgow NE.

  35. 7 June 2017 PanelbaseOnline 41 30 22 5 2
    5 Jun 2017 YouGovOnline 41 26 25 6 1
    2 Jun 2017 SurvationOnline 40 27 25 6

    Hope this stays formatted clearly enough.

    Probably obvious these are, in order, SNP-Con-Lab-LD-G. So, taking the average of these 3 final polls before the 2017 election, the actual result variance was approx:

    SNP -3.6%
    Con +0.8%
    Lab +3.5%
    LD +1%

    However, I’m not clear if these companies would have made methodological changes to their polls since then.

  36. Ipsos MORI
    SNP 44% +7 – 48 seats + 13
    Con 26% -3 – 6 seats – 7
    Lab 16% -11 – 1 seat – 6.
    Lib Dem 11 +4 – 4 seats no change
    Green 2% +2 – 0 seats
    Brexit <1% (no change from Ukip) – 0 seats.
    Changes from 2017

  37. I remember the polls in Scotland did rather overstate support for the SNP in 2017, but got the Tories about right. A lot of interesting, close seats in Scotland (on paper at least).

  38. Scottish Westminster poll, YouGov 29 Nov – 3 Dec (changes vs 23-25 Oct)

    SNP – 44% (+2)
    Conservative – 28% (+6)
    Labour – 15% (+3)
    Lib Dem – 12% (-1)
    Green – 1% (-3)
    Brexit – 0% (-6)

  39. Which according to Sir John Curtace would give the Tories eight seats in Scotland. Meanwhile Pippa Crear of the Mirror says she been told the Tories expect to hold ten Scottish seats and that some in Labour still think Labour is entering government without an increase in Scottish seats.

  40. Speaking to some people i know who live in Scotland the impression is Labour will increase their majority in some seats like Coatbridge. They say SNP have given up there and gone elsewhere

  41. Strange to hear Labour sounding so bullish. If they are ‘entering government without Scotland’, they must be expecting the ‘red wall’ to hold up far better than other reports have suggested. I have no idea where they are supposedly making gains as well.

  42. Scottish Westminster voting intention:

    SNP: 39% (-1)
    Tory: 29% (+1)
    Labour : 21% (+1)
    Lib De,: 10% (-1)

    via Panelbase
    03 – 06 Dec
    Changes with 22 Nov

    The Tories are going to gain Scottish seats I predict.

  43. I think they could gain or seat or three where they went from 3rd or 4th to 2nd last time, benefitting from more clarity to voters who the ABSNP vote should be given to.

    Conversely, where they were already 2nd prior to the last election they may lose to the SNP (if SNP’s overall poll lead vs. 2017 actually materialises), and fail to gain the highly marginal Perth & N Perthshire from the SNP.

    It’s also likely that confused tactical voting in 3-way marginals held by SLAB, who’s vote share is expected to be down in Scotland overall, could let SNP through the middle with either SLAB or SCON finishing a close 2nd.

  44. Ruth Davidson has said she will swim naked in the Loch Ness if the SNP win 50 seats or more.

  45. She’s definitely the sort to follow through, too.

  46. She must be confident – but if it happens I bet she would do it.

  47. Probably the sort of thing she would really enjoy anyway, and she’s looking for an excuse to do it.

  48. Scottish approval of Nicola Sturgeon over Covid: +74
    Scottish approval of Boris Johnson over Covid: -60

    I’m afraid this is a triumph for Nicola Sturgeon of style over substance. Scottish policy over Covid has been almost identical to Westminster, and neither have the per capita death tolls been much better. It is fundamentally irrational to have such a diverging view of two such similar government responses, just because of the faces slapped on them.

    Obviously my inner unionist is tearing his hair out, but more than that I fear this sort of thing is indicative of a fraying of the fabric of democracy. In the absence of a shared truth, voters are now utterly dependent on elite cues. They do not like Nicola Sturgeon because she is handling the disease well, they think she is handling the disease well because they like her. The fact that she is a more fundamentally serious and respecful person should not be the impenetrable shield against scrutiny over life-or-death decisions that it seems to be.

  49. I admire Sturgeon in sone ways but I think Polltroll is right. I’m not sure her performance regarding this issue has been anything impressive frankly. She also has flip flopped over the proposed reopening of schools (initially it was supposed to definitely be the start of the autumn term, now there are noises that it could be sooner).

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