Scotland European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 389503 29% (-0.1%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 348219 25.9% (+5.1%)
3. Ian Duncan (Conservative) 231330 17.2% (+0.4%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (194752)
5. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (174110)
6. David Coburn (UKIP) 140534 10.5% (+5.2%)
. (Scottish Green) 108305 8.1% (+0.8%)
. (Liberal Democrats) 95319 7.1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 13639 1% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10216 0.8% (-1.7%)
. (No2EU) 6418 0.5% (-0.4%)
Current sitting MEPs
Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
Ian Duncan (Conservative) Born in Alyth. Educated at Alyth High School and St Andrews University. Public affairs professional and former Scottish Parliamentary clerk. Contested Aberdeen South 2003 Scottish election. MEP for Scotland since 2014.
Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
David Coburn (UKIP) Born in Glasgow. Businessman. Contested Old Bexley and Sidcup 2010. MEP for Scotland since 2014.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 321007 29.1% (+9.4%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 229853 20.8% (-5.6%)
3. Struan Stevenson (Conservative) 185794 16.8% (-0.9%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (160504)
5. George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) 127038 11.5% (-1.6%)
6. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (114927)
. (Scottish Green) 80442 7.3% (+0.5%)
. (UKIP) 57788 5.2% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 27174 2.5% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 22135 2% (n/a)
. (Christian) 16738 1.5% (n/a)
. (Scottish Socialist) 10404 0.9% (-4.3%)
. Duncan Robertson (Independent) 10189 0.9% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9693 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 6257 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
Struan Stevenson (Conservative) Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007.
Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
Comments - 702 Responses on “Europe Scotland”
  1. Sounds like the North East is being painted blue, Labour picking up a seat or two in Glasgow, Lib Dem getting a couple here and there.

  2. If you put Scotland’s general election figures into the Scotland Votes calculator for Holyrood (compensating for the Green vote) you get –

    SNP 48 (63)
    Con 41 (31)
    Lab 31 (24)
    LD 5 (5)
    Green 4 (6)

    The constituency estimator is only a guide because for this years general election the SNP should have lost Perth, Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Glasgow Central but held Banff & Buchan, Gordon and Ochil on the basis of a uniform swing and Labour and not the Conservatives would have gained East Renfrwshire.

  3. Plop
    I’m always sceptical re how much of a difference these things make but with a majority of just 21 maybe the SNP’s decision to launch their manifesto in Perth just about saved Wishart?

  4. What’s also incredible is how its possible for the SNP to lose so many seats and still have a majority of seats in Scotland and also how just the gain few percentage points made the difference between Labour just retaining their one seat and gaining 6.

    I spoke to a couple of Labour activists who were now firmly convinced that the SNP were now locked into a unavoidable downward trajectory similar to the late 1970’s and Scottish Labour would quite naturally be re-established as the dominate party of Scottish politics.

    I feel that the SNP could lose more support, PR at Holyrood and STV in the local councils will protect the SNP from the kind of collapse that they had in the 1980’s.

    The FPTP elections in local government automatically created large numbers of Labour activists as councillors and the introduction of STV automatically removed at least a third of Labour councillors from many urban authorities.

  5. Yes they were lucky because had they fallen a few more % points they would have lost double the number of seats.

    They now have a huge number of marginals with majorities of under 3000. They held two seats in Glasgow with double figure majorities.

    In fact, they only larger majorities that they now have are in Dundee and Falkirk and these are nothing on the scale that they were in 2015.

  6. The thing is that of the remaining SNP seats – hardly any of which can now be described as safe – many more have Lab as the challenger. Further Con targets are quite limited, and in some like Lanark and Hamilton East or Central Ayrshire Lab may overtake them again if the SNP go further backwards.

  7. After all the ups and downs of the past few years the Scottish map could end up resembling what it looked like up to 97…

  8. Conservatives also came second in Central Ayrshire and Lanark & Hamilton East.

    The most major threat to the SNP is another snap general election as a full 5 year term would have allowed the SNP to have built up incumbency.

    It’s fair to say that the 5 Lab gains and many more near misses were no different to the Labour gain of Sheffield Hallam and Leeds NW. Labour clearly benefitted from what was perceived as a tight race Westminster race in some polls.

  9. I could see the Tories winning a re-run in North East Fife if the Lib Dems lose some support for being perceived as sore losers

  10. It’s ironic that inchester was won by the Lib Dems by just 2 votes and they objected to the re-run in 1997.

  11. Remember Cons vote will still have been suppressed in some seats, due to lack of expectations that they could achieve top 2 in the seat.

    That fox has been shot now and there will be further wide ranges of swings next GE.

  12. Scottish National (35):
    Dundee East – 6,645 (15.5%)
    Ross, Skye and Lochaber – 5,919 (15.4%)
    Dundee West – 5,262 (13.6%)
    Kilmarnock and Loudoun – 6,269 (13.5%)
    Aberdeen North – 4,139 (11.3%)
    Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East – 4,264 (9.7%)
    Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey – 4,924 (9.3%)
    Falkirk – 4,923 (9.1%)
    Glenrothes – 3,267 (8.1%)
    Edinburgh East – 3,425 (7.9%)
    North Ayrshire and Arran – 3,633 (7.7%)
    Livingston – 3,878 (7.4%)
    East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lasmahagow – 3,866 (7.1%)
    Na h-Eileanan an Iar – 1,007 (6.8%)
    Glasgow North West – 2,561 (6.6%)
    Glasgow Central – 2,267 (6.3%)
    Paisley and Renfrewshire South – 2,541 (6.1%)
    Paisley and Renfrewshire North – 2,613 (5.6%)
    Linlithgow and Falkirk East – 2,919 (5.2%)
    West Dunbartonshire – 2,288 (5.2%)
    Glasgow South – 2,027 (4.5%)
    Glasgow North – 1,060 (3.2%)
    Edinburgh North and Leith – 1,625 (2.9%)
    Argyll and Bute – 1,328 (2.8%)
    Central Ayrshire – 1,267 (2.8%)
    Edinburgh South West – 1,097 (2.2%)
    Dunfermline and West Fife – 844 (1.7%)
    Inverclyde – 384 (1.0%)
    Motherwell and Wishaw – 318 (0.8%)
    Airdrie and Shotts – 195 (0.5%)
    Lanark and Hamilton East – 266 (0.5%)
    Glasgow East – 75 (0.2%)
    Glasgow South West – 60 (0.2%)
    Perth and North Perthshire – 21 (0.0%)
    North East Fife – 2 (0.0%)

    Conservative (13):
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk – 11,060 (21.1%)
    Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale – 9,441 (19.3%)
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine – 7,949 (15.4%)
    Dumfries and Galloway – 5,643 (10.9%)
    Aberdeen South – 4,752 (10.7%)
    East Renfrewshire – 4,712 (8.9%)
    Banff and Buchan – 3,693 (8.9%)
    Moray – 4,159 (8.7%)
    Angus – 2,645 (6.6%)
    Ochil and South Perthshire – 3,359 (6.2%)
    Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – 2,774 (6.0%)
    Gordon – 2,607 (4.9%)
    Stirling – 148 (0.3%)

    Labour (7):
    Edinburgh South – 15,514 (32.4%)
    East Lothian – 3,083 (5.5%)
    Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill – 1,586 (3.5%)
    Midlothian – 885 (2.0%)
    Glasgow North East – 242 (0.8%)
    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath – 259 (0.6%)
    Rutherglen and Hamilton West – 265 (0.5%)

    Liberal Democrat (4):
    Orkney and Island – 4,563 (19.6%)
    East Dunbartonshire – 5,339 (10.3%)
    Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross – 2,044 (6.6%)
    Edinburgh West – 2,988 (5.7%)

  13. In respect to the boundary changes, the result based on the interim proposals would have been:
    SNP (31)
    Con (13): Aberdeen South; Angus Glens and Dundee East; Ayr and Carrick; Banff and Buchan; Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Clydesdale and Eskdale; Cunninghame East; Dumfries and Galloway; Gordon and Deeside; Kincardine and Angus East; Kinross-shire and Cowdenbeath; Moray and Nairn; Perthshire
    Lab (7): Airdrie South and Shotts; East Lothian; Edinburgh East; Edinburgh South West and Central; Glasgow North; Monklands West; Rutherglen and Hamilton West
    LD (2): Edinburgh West; Orkney and Shetland

    Changes to actual:
    Con (nc)
    Lab (nc)
    LD (-2)
    SNP (-4)

  14. Has Labour actually done that well in Scotland relative to England. Labour’s share of the vote was up just 2.8% in Scotland compaired to 10.3% in England.

    Is it not fair to say that Labour only capitalised on the swing from SNP to Con and where they succeeded in Lib Dem/ Lab marginals like Leeds NW and Sheffield Hallam they failed in some SNP / Lab marginal like Paisley South, Edinburgh Leith and Glasgow Central.

  15. No, they didn’t do as well as in England. But considering where they were in the Scittish polls just a few months ago – almost in 4th – they’ll be delighted. And now wouldn’t take too much more of a swing from the SNP to be back to somewhere approaching (minus now Tory seats) their former position.

  16. An interesting dilemma for the SNP: do they shift left to hold onto their many marginals vs. Labour or towards the centre to hold onto their remaining marginals vs. the Tories?

    They are just a few points from losing another half-dozen seats to either party and not even “winning” the election in the sense of having a majority of seats in Scotland.

  17. I think the next tack for the Lib Dems should probably be, beside shoring up their current seats, to start throwing resources into Aberdeenshire, where we should aim to retain some three-way fights with the Tories and SNP – anywhere we can get into a clear second gives us a chance at either union-squeeze or anti-Tory squeeze.

  18. In respect to Labour’s performance they increased their share of the vote between 5-9% across Glasgow and North Lanarkshire, and also managed some fairly impressive results across the three Edinburgh’s three eastern constituencies and in Midlothian and East Lothian.

    The Liberal Democrats are dead in Aberdeenshire. Labour are now ahead of them in Gordon for goodness sake! I think looking ahead to the next Scottish Parliamentary election they should really be looking to shore up their vote in North East Fife and East Dunbartonshire in particular given the boundary review, whilst also pushing for a gain in Caithness.

  19. Quite incredible that the SNP held four seats on majorities of less than one hundred. In fact, I doubt there will ever have been so many two-figure (or in NE Fife’s case single-figure) majorities across the UK.

  20. We can’t just shore up our vote where we have it though – if we want to expand over time we need to find secondary target areas to focus on and carve out second place finishes in again.

  21. @ James — if you do that your going to be neglecting the seats you have as the new boundaries come into play, which is likely to see you reduced from 4 to 3. The fact is that the Liberal Democrats are irrelevant outside of 5 constituencies in Scotland.

  22. Ian Blackford and Jamie Stone to battle it out for Highland North.

    Partick Gravey and Glasgow NEs Labour MP to battle it out in the new Glasgow North.

    Joanna Cherry and Ian Murray to battle it out for Edinburgh SW & C

  23. @ Dalek – Edinburgh South West and Central will be a Conservative-Labour marginal. The SNP cannot win it on current figures.

  24. I was referring to where displaced MP’s were most likely to stand…not their prospects of re-election.

  25. The ironic thing is that had the Greens stood candidates across the country the SNP would be on 6-10 fewer seats which would give them fewer than half of Scotland’s seats.

  26. 56 of Scotlands 59 constituencies are now marginals as only Berwickshire, Edinburgh South and Orkney have majorities exceeding 20%.

    The pendulum can swing any way.

  27. Before we get too excited about boundary changes – good luck trying to pass them in the current parliament!

  28. Good point. Will be interesting to see what happens in that regard!

  29. Yes….Looking at the boundary changes the dividing of the ultra safe SF Belfast West turns the DUPs Belfast North and newly acquired DUP seat of Belfast South into SF seats.

    Also…Londonderry East and Upper Bann are being turned into SF seats. So I can’t see the 10 DUP supporting the boundary changes.

  30. This time I imagine the boundary review – or at least the seat reduction – is really dead. It was already looking a bit dicey in the last parliament and now the maths is even worse. Though cancelling it would require new legislation which is unlikely to be a priority.

  31. But what democratic basis have the DUP got to oppose the boundary changes, which are well overdue and not calculated on a partisan basis?

  32. The seat reduction is the more controversial aspect than the changing of the actual boundaries.
    And mp;s always vote on self preservation on these grounds.

  33. The boundaries are not drawn up on a partisan basis, but that doesn’t mean they can’t be voted on on a partisan basis!

    There are always going to be some Tories who are seeing their seats disappear who will vote against as well – this is more of a problem when you are reducing the number of seats. You’d probably need a majority of about 50 to pass the changes.

  34. Who are likely to take Ross Thomson & Douglas Ross’ seats in the Scots Parly?

  35. BT
    “But what democratic basis have the DUP got to oppose the boundary changes, which are well overdue and not calculated on a partisan basis?”

    None whatsoever but its the height of naivety to think that makes even the slightest difference.

    As Polltroll says the Tory MP’s who lose out where by themselves enough to make the review look dicey back when the Cons had a majority, now that they don’t and are dependant on the DUP there is literally no wriggle room for the Gov and the DUP are in no way going to support changes that make Sinn Fein the largest party in NI which is what the proposed boundaries would do.

    Save unforeseen circumstances the boundary changes are dead for the time being.

  36. Woof,

    The Tories will be looking for somewhere to put Ian Duncan, who is too experienced and well-regarded within the party to be left on the sidelines after Brexit.

  37. It goes to the next available candidate on the list. In the case of the North East the Tories are, remarkably, down to their 10th and last candidate, Tom Mason. The list was:

    1/ Alex Johnstone (elected list MSP, since died)
    2/ Alexander Burnett (elected MSP for West Aberdeenshire constituency)
    3/ Ross Thomson (elected list MSP, now MP for Aberdeen South)
    4/ Peter Chapman (elected list MSP)
    5/ Liam Kerr (elected list MSP)
    6/ Bill Bowman (replaced Alex Johnstone as list MSP)
    7/ Nicola Ross (since left Conservative Party to become independent)
    8/ Colin Clark (elected MP for Gordon)
    9/ Kirstene Hair (elected MP for Angus)
    10/ Tom Mason

    In the Highlands and Islands it is more straightforward as they are only down to number four, which is Jamie Halcro-Johnston.

  38. What happens if Chapman, Kerr or Mason leaves the Scottish Parliament in the next four years. Does the seat become empty like when Margo Macdonald died.

  39. “Nicola Ross (since left Conservative Party to become independent)”

    Would they not be entitled to the seat as they were on the list? Just….there may be a peculiar legality.

  40. Does anyone know what happens if the Tories run out of list candidates in the North East? E.g. if Tom Mason were to win a by-election for Moray? Would they be able to “import” list candidates from elsewhere? Would there be a list by-election? Would the seat be decided by bat’leth duel?

    Inquiring minds want to know!

  41. The nominated candidate and the party both have to approve the nomination, so it can’t go to someone who has defected (this has come up several times in the European Parliament with Tory and UKIP list members who had defected to one another since the election).

    Looking at the Scotland Act it seems that if the list is exhausted the seat simply remains vacant. This would be consistent with what happened when Margo McDonald died/

  42. What is incredible about Scotland is that 56 of the 59 constituencies now have majorities of under 20% and there are very few seats with majorities for 10 – 20%.

    It is statistically baffling the huge number of constituencies with single figure, double figure and three figure majorities.

    As per much of Scotland there is no longer a large divergence between constituencies. Glasgow ranges from an SNP majority in Glasgow NW of 2561 to a Labour majority in Glasgow NE of 257.

  43. I wonder if Nicola Ross is kicking herself for leaving the party right now. If she had stayed, she would have been getting ready to be sworn in. Now she’ll be left thinking of what might have been. Such is life!

  44. Excellant analysis of this year’s Scottish local elections here:

    I found particularly interesting the section on p7-8 on the electoral system. In general I support PR, but the example of local elections in Scotland highlight’s the very real disadvantages of the STV variety.

  45. I find the use of the phrase “tactical voting” to describe STV and other ranked voting systems such as AV quite odd. The whole point about being to rank candidates in order is that it eliminates need to vote tactically. Ranking the SNP last on your ballot paper is not “tactical voting” if you really do dislike the SNP more than any other party.

  46. Panelbase

    On Scottish independence-
    Don’t Know included:
    NO 53% (+1)
    YES 40% (-3)
    DK 6% (+1)

    Don’t Know excluded:
    NO 57% (+2)
    YES 43% (-2)

    Scottish Parliament voting intention (constituency)-
    SNP 42%
    Con 28%
    Lab 22%
    LD 6%
    Grn 2%

    Good poll for the SNP but given Panelbase’s track record and following Labour victories in the Cardonald and Fortissat by-elections recently I’m more than a little sceptical that the SNP are actually doing that well.

  47. Poll details here:

    I find it bizarre that they didn’t ask how people would vote on the list. That’s pretty important as it determines how many seats the Greens get, which in turn largely determines whether there is a majority in the parliament for a second indyref.

  48. On those numbers I would have thought there wouldn’t be quite enough for a pro-indyref majority. There would have to be a significant boost for the Greens for that to be achieved.

    I also share NTY UK’s scepticism over the poll’s accuracy. Given that only ten percentage points separated the parties within Scotland at the GE, and the momentum appears to be in the red corner, I doubt the gap has doubled. If anything you’d expect he SNP to be performing worse at Holyrood, where they have the burden of a decade in office, than Westminster, where they can just moan on the backbenches.

  49. A Survation poll on the Holyrood constituency vote also has a 17% SNP lead over a narrowly third placed Labour Party. Last week’s Panelbase poll also had a similar gap.

    The regional list vote has Labour second and just 9% behind the SNP but this may be explained by the 9% Green regional vote.

    Panelbase also have a Westminster poll that shows the SNP increase their lead on the general election with Labour falling below their 2015 level of support and losing the 6 seats they narrowly gained. The Conservatives on the other hand would hold all but 1 of the 13 seats they gained in June.

    Survation also have figure on a Scottish Independence with No down 3% on 54% and Yes up 3% on 46%.

  50. Survation details here:

    They did ask a list vote question, so it is possible to do a seat calculation for their figures using Weber-Shandwick. Using their figures weighted by likelihood to vote and with dont knows stripped out gives:

    SNP 54
    Labour 30
    Conservative 24
    Lib Dem 13
    Green 8

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