Scotland European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 389503 29% (-0.1%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 348219 25.9% (+5.1%)
3. Ian Duncan (Conservative) 231330 17.2% (+0.4%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (194752)
5. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (174110)
6. David Coburn (UKIP) 140534 10.5% (+5.2%)
. (Scottish Green) 108305 8.1% (+0.8%)
. (Liberal Democrats) 95319 7.1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 13639 1% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10216 0.8% (-1.7%)
. (No2EU) 6418 0.5% (-0.4%)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Ian Duncan (Conservative) Born in Alyth. Educated at Alyth High School and St Andrews University. Public affairs professional and former Scottish Parliamentary clerk. Contested Aberdeen South 2003 Scottish election. MEP for Scotland since 2014.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
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David Coburn (UKIP) Born in Glasgow. Businessman. Contested Old Bexley and Sidcup 2010. MEP for Scotland since 2014.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 321007 29.1% (+9.4%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 229853 20.8% (-5.6%)
3. Struan Stevenson (Conservative) 185794 16.8% (-0.9%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (160504)
5. George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) 127038 11.5% (-1.6%)
6. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (114927)
. (Scottish Green) 80442 7.3% (+0.5%)
. (UKIP) 57788 5.2% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 27174 2.5% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 22135 2% (n/a)
. (Christian) 16738 1.5% (n/a)
. (Scottish Socialist) 10404 0.9% (-4.3%)
. Duncan Robertson (Independent) 10189 0.9% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9693 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 6257 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Struan Stevenson (Conservative) Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
Comments - 679 Responses on “Europe Scotland”
  1. Agreed.

    The day after polling day, I suspect the idea that the Tories were going to gain 14 Scottish seats will look pretty silly.

    It will be more like 5 IMO and unless Labour’s poll boost is an illusion they are surely bound to pick up a few.

  2. I think SLab are taking as many, if not more, voters from the SNP as from the Tories. Ironically that may let the Tories through the middle in the odd seat. Labour’s vote is spread pretty awkwardly – the Labour bounce might halve the gap to the SNP in the Coatbridges or Motherwells of this world, but that counts for zip in FPTP.

    For the Tories, 14 seats is fanciful, but with the polls being so volatile I’d rather not put figures on anything just yet.

  3. All things considered, East Lothian is Labours best chance of a gain in Scotland.

    On paper East Renfrewshire should be but everything from bookies odds to local election results would appear to suggest that it’s the third placed Conservatives who are the main challenger. Blair D could still take enough unionist votes to stop the Conservatives winning there.

  4. East Lothian is a Labour SNP fight, it is not a viable target for the Conservatives on current polling.

  5. I think the following changes are almost certain to happen (at this moment in time, at least!):

    CON hold:

    Dumfriesshire C&T

    CON gains from SNP:

    Berwickshire R&S
    Aberdeenshire W&K
    Dumfries & Galloway

    Lab hold:
    Edinburgh South

    LD hold:
    Orkney & Shetland

    LD gains:
    Edinburgh West
    East Dunbartonshire

    I think a lot more seats will probably change hands, but are total toss-ups in my mind.

  6. New Ipsos Mori poll, good for SNP, great for Labour, but they do consistently understate the Conservatives and Labour and overstate the SNP:

    SNP 43%
    Con 25%
    Lab 25%
    LD 5%

    On independence with Don’t Knows removed:
    No 53% (+3)
    Yes 47% (-3)

  7. It is clear that the Scottish Conservatives are not immune from the UK swing from Con to Lab.

    The figures now look broadly similar to the last Scottish Parliament elections.

    The rise in Scottish Labour support seems to be coming from the Scottish Conservatives and not from the SNP.

  8. OpinionBee doesn’t show any comparison with previous poll. Is this Ipsos’ first Westminster poll of this Parliament?

  9. Yes.

    Dalek you should always work in averages. Ipsos Mori have a reputation for understating the Conservatives and overstating the SNP.

    Average of 6 polls since the general election:
    SNP 42%
    Con 29%
    Lab 20%
    LD 5%

    Average of 3 polls since the local elections:
    SNP 41%
    Con 28%
    Lab 23%
    LD 5%

    Labour’s recent rise in the polls seems to have come from the Conservatives and SNP in equal parts.

  10. YouGov look to be revising their constituency figures and bringing back “Nowcast” this afternoon so I would garb some popcorn.

  11. NTY,

    How relevant are polls from a year or more ago? Surely it’s clear, not just in Scotland but throughout Britain, that the Labour party are closing the gap rapidly on the Conservatives. All polls suggest that, not just the Mori poll released today. By the way, the fieldwork for the Mori poll was 22nd-27th May which suggests to me the Conservative figure may be higher than it should be and the Labour one lower.

  12. @ Scottyboy – sorry that average is from since when the general election was announced by Theresa May this year***

  13. Ah, fair enough. However, is a 13% Labour score relevant now and should it be included in the averages? In reality they are polling twice that.

  14. @ Scottyboy – The SNP, Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems should be included in all averages as they are all likely to hold at least one parliamentary constituency in Scotland after the election.

    The Greens are only relevant in Glasgow North.

  15. Well, would you agree with me that including figures like the 13% for Labour give a false impression of their true up to date polling?

  16. No, because the same argument could be made for polls giving Labour 25% of the vote in Scotland, which is why it’s good practice to average up as many fairly consistent polls as possible to get the best picture of how the vote is heading in Scotland before polling day.

  17. My ‘rough outline’ for Scotland

    SNP 40% (-10)
    Con 28% (+13)
    Lab 23% (-1)
    LD 8% (-)
    Other 1

    Con gain from SNP
    Moray
    Perth and North Perthshire
    Dumfries and Galloway
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
    East Renfrewshire
    Aberdeen South

    SNP maj over Con ~ 5%
    Stirling
    Edinburgh SW
    Banff and Buchan
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

    Lab gain from SNP
    East Lothian

    SNP maj over Lab ~10%

    Coatbridge
    Kirkcaldy
    Midlothian
    Lanark

    LD gains from SNP
    NE Fife
    Edinburgh W
    East Dunbartonshire

    Seats

    SNP 45 (-11)
    Con 8 (+7)
    LD 4 (+3)
    Lab 2 (+1)

    Of course if the SNP does get 39% or less the SNP seat tally could fall apart in the way Ian Smart surmises here: http://ianssmart.blogspot.co.uk/2017/05/for-want-of-imagination-my-seventh.html

    but I’m guessing the SNP will narrowly avoid that.

    Up to now I had assumed the Tories would easily reach 30% and that the ‘Ruth Davidson party message’ protected the Tories from the Conservatives horrible campaign in England and Wales but I honestly don’t know now.

  18. Was discussing this with friends this evening, any ideas: why are the Scottish leaders like Sturgeon ad Davidson so much more articulate and fluent in debate than their English counterparts. I mean England has 9 times the population, but Scottish politicians seem on average much more articulate.

    My theory is that the House of Commons is a lot less attractive to bright English people than post devolution politics is to bright Scottish people.

  19. Peter
    “My theory is that the House of Commons is a lot less attractive to bright English people than post devolution politics is to bright Scottish people”

    You’ve pretty much hit the nail on the head, I actually did a paper on this in uni, there is quite a few studies that show that the Westminster model of politics (and its offshoots in the likes of the US) is so antiquated and dysfunctional it literally breeds stupidity and incompetence, reason being there is hardly any real oversight, their is no proper performance/reward correlation, cronyism is rampant, the system encourages yobbish and adversarial debate and the nature of it all rewards the flashiest, loudest and scummiest and not the smartest and most considered, basically a form of warped natural selection. Thus many of our best and brightest avoid it outright but most alarmingly the system often changes those within and turns intelligent, analytical free thinkers into either non descript party yes men or self inflated egotists.

  20. YouGov poll for Scotland due at 21:30

  21. still waiting

  22. Any news?

  23. Unfortunately ’twas not a YouGov poll but rather a Panelbase one conducted from 26-31 May:
    SNP: 42% (-2)
    Con: 30% (-3)
    Lab: 20% (+7)
    Lib: 5% (n/c)
    Grn: 2% (n/c)
    UKIP: 1% (-1)

    We are also getting a Survation poll in the Sunday Post in the morning.

  24. Thanks Rivers, your paper is interesting. I remember the 80s and have dim memories of the 70s, but I remember Healey, Foot, Thatcher, Benn, Jenkins, Lawson and Enoch Powell etc. there were also a ton of more minor figures like Ian Gilmour, Roy Hattersley, Norman St. John Stevas and others who spoke and wrote well. They were good communicators with interesting views.

    It’s not just a function of growing older and thinking policemen are younger. I get that it’s easy to look at the past with rose tinted spectacles, but I can’t help feeling that these people were, from whatever party and on any criteria, more experienced and a great deal more articulate and intellectually distinguished than the muppets we have today in specifically English politics.

    something has happened in politics, not just in the UK but around the world. Just compare a Reagan speech to Trump, or compare Mitterand to Macron. Something weird is going on

  25. One thing to bear in mind when looking at the Scottish polls is that on the evidence of last year’s Scottish Parliament election they do exhibit a tendency to understate the Conservatives and overstate the SNP.

    Every poll conducted during 2016 prior to the election had the Conservative share lower and the SNP share higher than the actual outcome. That was the case for both the list and constituency vote.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2016

    More generally that suggests to me that poling companies still haven’t found a solution to the issues that bedevilled them at the last UK election.

    Rivers, if you could post links to the studies you are referring to I for one would be very interested to read them. I teach a module that covers the Westminster model, and there might be some interesting material there.

  26. “Just compare a Reagan speech to Trump, or compare Mitterand to Macron. Something weird is going on”.

    That’s absolutely right, Peter. A guy called Elvin Lim who is Associate Professor of Political Science at the National University of Singapore has written a very readable book called “The Anti-Intellectual Presidency: The Decline of Presidential Rhetoric from George Washinton to George W Bush” examining that phenomenon.

  27. Survation/The Sunday Post poll:
    SNP 40% (-3)
    Con 27% (-1)
    Lab 25% (+8)
    LD 6% (-3)

    Very interesting poll- gives me between 11-14 Conservatives in Scotland and 4 Lib Dems. Labour would gain East Lothian and have a fair chance of gaining one or two working class targets like Coatbridge, Chyrston & Bellshill, Dunfermline & West Fife, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, Lanark & Hamilton East or Rutherglen & Hmailton West.

  28. Labour vote up at the expense of both SNP and Conservative. In straight CON-SNP battles it has no real effect.
    In seats where Con need Lab votes to overturn the SNP incumbent it has a huge effect.
    In seats where it is a straight SNP-LAB fight it helps Labour massively.
    Next is the LibDem situation..are Brexit backing unionist Conservatives going to support remain backing unionist LibDems in order to overturn an SNP incumbent? Possibly but less likely than in pre Brexit days.

    I have Conservative on 6 in Scotland, other close calls even closer to call than before!
    I will have a tentative guess at 2 LibDem and 2 Labour, SNP the rest.

  29. Kieran W,

    Thanks for that. Will try and get hold of that book. It’s one of the things I love about this site, getting reading tips and learning about general political information and ideas. Looking at the book on the Internet, it’s particularly prescient as it was written years before Trump s bid for the presidency. Trump on one level makes Bush sound like Shakespeare.

    My sense is that popular entertainment has a lot to do with this dumbing down. It’s no accident that the Donald honed his skills over 12 years on reality TV. People have always been bore receptive to emotional appeals than actual argument, but this tendency is very pronounced now.

    Even Lincoln s oratory which seemed pithy and direct at the time, now seems cloudy and abstract. Trump barely speaks in sentences. He throws out words . His vocabulary is so limited. Things are either “tremendous” or a “disaster”.

    Happen to think, he is a genius at communication, nobody in my lifetime has communicated like him, but it’s so basic that it doesn’t count as argument. It has zero appeal to any kind of reasoning. It’s purely emotional. Even Dubya constructed arguments of a basic kind.

  30. Anyone aware of any other Scottish polls due to come out before Thursday or is that it?

  31. @ Woof – I would imagine that Yougov will publish one on election day or the day before it. I would also anticipate at least one more Survation poll, however this might be our last Panelbase poll for the election in Scotland.

  32. Both TNS and YouGov released polls overnight.

    YouGov is very good for Labour, bad for SNP and Tories (or, rather comparitavely bad, SNP are still miles ahead and Tories are still just ahead of Labour in high 20s)

  33. TNS have released a Scottish poll?

  34. I was sure I saw a tweet from What Scotland Thinks with the figures, but must have been dreaming it.

  35. Well anyway here’s my guesstimate for Scotland, which is optimistic for the Tories:

    VOTES
    SNP 42% (-8)
    Con 30% (+15)
    Lab 21% (-3)
    LD 6% (-1)

    SEATS
    SNP 39 (-17)
    Con 14 (+13)
    LD 4 (+3)
    Lab 2 (+1)

    Con GAIN from SNP (13):
    Aberdeen South
    Angus
    Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Edinburgh South West
    Gordon
    Moray
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Perth and North Perthshire
    Stirling
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    Lab gain from SNP (1):
    East Lothian

    LD gain from SNP (3):
    East Dunbartonshire
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife

  36. If the conservatives win Gordon I’ll crack open my bottle of Krug…

  37. What’s the rationale behind thinking the Conservatives will win Aberdeen South ? Have seen it predicted a few places.

  38. @ Robberbutton – well they were only 6% behind in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election from the SNP.

    The constituency had a solid 65% No vote in 2014 and a decent leave vote relative to its demographics (32%).

    I’ve also heard from the ground that it is a “shoe-in” for the Conservatives.

  39. @ Maxim/Conservative Estimate –

    So you agree with me that the SNP will hold on to Banff & Buchan?

    I think that Banff & Buchan is a very interesting and unique contest which is very difficult to call as a result!

  40. I’d suggest the following (seat no’s in brackets):

    SNP 39% (36)
    Con 30% (16)
    Lab 25% (4)
    LD 5% (3)

  41. Panelbase/The Times:

    SNP 41%
    Con 30%
    Lab 22%
    LD 5%

    Perhaps I’m close to the mark then. Beyond these figures Banff & Buchan and Central Ayrshire cannot be ruled out as viable targets for the Conservative Party in Scotland.

  42. If carried into effect on election day, those would be great numbers for the Tories – leaves them much less vulnerable to a Labour surge.

  43. and in COMPLETE contrast to those figures is figures from Survation/Daily Record:

    SNP 39%
    Lab 29%
    Con 26%
    LD 6%

    Truly astonishing. Now on these figures in contrast to those in my previous post Labour would be make some real gains in working class seats like Coatbridge and Kirkcaldy.

    I would give them:
    Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill
    Dunfermline and West Fife
    East Lothian
    Edinburgh South
    Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath

    Maybe also Paisley & Renfrewshire South and one of the Hamilton constituencies.

  44. Just about to post that extraordinary result. However, definitely NOT one I think will be replicated on election day – Survation have CONSISTENTLY overstated Labour’s vote by a ridiculous amount. Either they’re doing something remarkably right that no one else is or they’ve stuffed up somewhere and should be shunned.

    *Sigh* one more day I suppose…

  45. Survation poll is a sub-sample, so it means absolutely nothing. Apologies for posting it.

  46. I didn’t realise that it was a subsample of a UK-wide poll, but turns out it is. Problem with subsamples is that they only ask a very small number of people and are not properly weighted.

  47. Nor did I actually. It was published by Britain Elects which don’t usually put out sub-samples. No wonder it was surprising!

  48. Indeed, but I can confirm 100% that it is a sub-sample which is unweighted with less than 300 Scottish respondents. So meaningless.

  49. Is there any indication on how the 22 SNP loses are being distributed?

  50. It seems every party is overperforming against the SNP – Labour making a lot of gains, Tories doing well, LD’s great too.

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