Scotland European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 389503 29% (-0.1%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 348219 25.9% (+5.1%)
3. Ian Duncan (Conservative) 231330 17.2% (+0.4%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (194752)
5. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (174110)
6. David Coburn (UKIP) 140534 10.5% (+5.2%)
. (Scottish Green) 108305 8.1% (+0.8%)
. (Liberal Democrats) 95319 7.1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 13639 1% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10216 0.8% (-1.7%)
. (No2EU) 6418 0.5% (-0.4%)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Ian Duncan (Conservative) Born in Alyth. Educated at Alyth High School and St Andrews University. Public affairs professional and former Scottish Parliamentary clerk. Contested Aberdeen South 2003 Scottish election. MEP for Scotland since 2014.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
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David Coburn (UKIP) Born in Glasgow. Businessman. Contested Old Bexley and Sidcup 2010. MEP for Scotland since 2014.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 321007 29.1% (+9.4%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 229853 20.8% (-5.6%)
3. Struan Stevenson (Conservative) 185794 16.8% (-0.9%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (160504)
5. George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) 127038 11.5% (-1.6%)
6. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (114927)
. (Scottish Green) 80442 7.3% (+0.5%)
. (UKIP) 57788 5.2% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 27174 2.5% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 22135 2% (n/a)
. (Christian) 16738 1.5% (n/a)
. (Scottish Socialist) 10404 0.9% (-4.3%)
. Duncan Robertson (Independent) 10189 0.9% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9693 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 6257 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Struan Stevenson (Conservative) Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
Comments - 247 Responses on “Europe Scotland”
  1. Depends on the Boundary Commission. Both are pretty likely to get worse for them, and Edinburgh West may be a hopeless case (although I’m sure that all successor seats will get a bar chart nonetheless).

  2. Of course! Moray could be quite close as well y’know, based on 2016

  3. The Moray constituency in the Scottish Parliament is better for the Conservatives than the existing UK Parliamentary constituency (that is before the boundaries change of course). At the moment I would argue that it is extremely unlikely that Moray (in its existing form) will go Conservative in 2020 based on current opinion polling: given the constituency’s long tradition with the SNP I would imagine that the SNP vote here is more saturated than elsewhere in Scotland.

  4. Aberdeen South is a more likely Conservative constituency in every respect, though again that is still relatively unlikely.

  5. It’s possible that the Moray Holyrood constituency may have been the only one of Scotlands 73 Holyrood constituencies to vote Leave.

  6. That assuming the part of the Moray council area / Westminter constituency that is in Buchan Coastal was strongly remain.

  7. I think that Banffshire & Buchan Coast voted to Leave and that Moray voted Remain, but I suppose so ?

  8. Technically they could have both voted to Leave but I doubt that!

  9. Banffshire and Buchan Coast went about 62% leave.

    This has been done to death anyway. I’m much more interested in why leave got >40% in e.g. Dundee and West Lothian for example.

    That said nothing massively surprised me about the overall outline in Scotland (I was realistically hoping for 65% remain).

    I don’t think the slightly low turnout in Scotland was too statistically significant either arguably remain got it’s vote out well in Glasgow in spite of it but remain/the SNP could have tried a bit harder in Dundee and parts of Fife and Ayrshire.

  10. @ A Brown – 62% Leave???

    Source please?

  11. Yes East Ren and Aberdeen S are much better Tory prospects than Angus, P&NP or Moray

  12. Nah, Moray’s a good shout for Tories. Angus possibly too.

    Mark my words, you wait and see young man. . . 🙂

  13. LOL

    This isn’t 1983

  14. On the basis of current opinion polling that is extremely unlikely.

  15. I won’t predict Tory gains around Moray, Angus or Perth & Kinross until the Tories pick up the Holyrood seats.

  16. I predict Aberdeenshire / Grampian generally to be fertile area for Tories in 2020.

    Remember, this is where you saw it first. 🙂

  17. Grampian? I’m not familiar with that regional designation BT SAYS… 🙂

  18. I’m not sure whether or not you’re serious: Grampian was a regional council area from 1975-96, covering the modern-day Scottish council areas of Aberdeen City, Aberdeenshire and Moray.

  19. I’d agree with you, but I’d say gains around Dumfries & Galloway and the Borders are most likely

  20. A lot of the seats that you folks are talking about also require a much more significant drop in the SNP vote than we’ve seen to be actually won by the Tories.

  21. The Grampian Mountains still exist, and Grampian is still a region used by the Met Office – not quite the same as the Boundary Commission I know . . .

    Aberdeen itself not likely to be such good territory for the Tories, even if they add a few % in line with national swing.

  22. Joking of course! I’m well aware of Grampian 😛

  23. I agree with Simon here.

    Applying the aforementioned panelbase poll to the 2016 Scottish Parliament election would result in the something along the lines of the following in terms of Westminster constituency results in Grampian –

    • ABERDEEN NORTH: 33% SNP majority over CON
    • ABERDEEN SOUTH: 4% SNP majority over CON
    • BANFF & BUCHAN: 20% SNP majority over CON
    • GORDON: 18% SNP majority over CON
    • MORAY: 8% SNP majority over CON
    • WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & KINCARDINE: 2% CON majority over SNP

    Categorising these:
    ULTRA-MARGINAL
    • West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine (CON)

    MARGINAL:
    • Aberdeen South (SNP)
    • Moray (SNP)

    SEMI-MARGINAL:
    • Gordon (SNP)

    SAFE:
    • Banff & Buchan (SNP)

    VERY SAFE:
    • Aberdeen North (SNP)

    To pick up Aberdeen South the Conservatives could potentially take votes from other unionist parties to be on par with the SNP at 39-40% of the vote. A Green candidate here could also give them some edge over the SNP.

    In Moray the Conservatives would need to directly pick up votes from the SNP to gain the constituency, even if a Green candidate stands here.

  24. The Tory target list at least looks better than it did in May 2015

  25. It all depends on the Boundary Review.

  26. I’m not taking it into account until it happens

  27. Polling average on Scottish independence from 11 September to 18 September 2014 (10 opinion polls):
    * 48% NO
    * 44% YES

    Polling average on Scottish independence from 13 July 2016 onwards (7 opinion polls):
    * 47.5% NO (-0.5)
    * 41.5% YES (-2.5)

  28. New YouGov opinion poll:

    On Scottish independence:
    Don’t knows included:
    49% No (+3)
    38% Yes (-2)
    10% Don’t know (=)

    Don’t knows excluded:
    56% No (+2)
    44% Yes (-2)

    Support for a second referendum on independence before UK leaves EU:
    54% Oppose (+4)
    35% Support (-2)
    11% Don’t know (-2)

    Should the Scottish government campaign for independence over the next two years:
    56% Should not
    31% Should
    13% Don’t know

    On favourability:
    Ruth Davidson
    49% Doing well (+3)
    24% Doing badly (-1)
    NET +25 (+4)

    Nicola Sturgeon
    50% Doing well (-3)
    39% Doing badly (+6)
    NET +11 (-9)

    Theresa May
    35% Doing well (=)
    40% Doing badly (+18)
    NET -5 (-18)

    Kezia Dugdale
    44% Doing badly (+2)
    23% Doing well (-2)
    NET -21 (-4)

    Jeremy Corbyn
    55% Doing badly (-5)
    20% Doing well (+2)
    NET -35 (+7)

  29. The only good aspects of that poll for the SNP are the continued net positive personal rating for Nicola Sturgeon and the decline in the similar rating for Theresa May. Beyond that clear evidence that Brexit isn’t going to be the catalyst for a surge in support for independence that the SNP might have hoped it would be.

  30. Economic catastrophe…Scotland and NI secession…all the referendum propaganda is proving to be just that. No surprise…

  31. Funny how it’s never reported in the news unless it’s got a majority in favour of independence.

  32. Yes.

    One of my favourite pages on Facebook is SNPOut (:

  33. Throughout the early 1990’s MORI conducted a number of polls on Scotland’s constitutional relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom. These polls had support for independence averaging at around 35% of the vote with devolution and the status quo offered as alternatives and undecideds included.

    Today support for independence tends to fluctuate at between 40-45% of the vote with Don’t Knows included.

  34. Summary of this year’s local council by-elections in Scotland: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/post/451604/thread

    Most of this year’s local council by-elections (roughly 10 out of 17) took place in working class areas, the majority of which voted in favour of independence. A further 3 by-elections took place in more affluent areas which were still reasonably good for the Yes campaign in 2014 (two by-elections in Oban North & Lorn and one in Carnoustie & District).

    The vote share change on 2012:
    Conservative ………. +10.81
    Green ………………… +2.24
    Scottish National … +2.20
    Liberal Democrat … +1.21
    Independent ………. -4.32
    Labour ………………. -12.47

  35. As I mention in the post applying those vote share changes (which should in theory be more favourable for the SNP on average) would give the following national result compared with 2012:
    SNP 34.5
    Con 24.0
    Lab 18.9
    Lib 7.8
    Ind 7.5
    Grn 4.5

    I suggest that this would equate to the Conservatives polling first in the following council areas:
    – Aberdeenshire
    – City of Edinburgh
    – Dumfries and Galloway
    – East Renfrewshire
    – Perth and Kinross
    – Scottish Borders
    – South Ayrshire
    – Stirling

    They would also have a reasonable chance in Angus and Moray depending on the local independent vote there.

    Most councils with Labour ahead will go over to the Tories and SNP, although I believe they will hold on in pockets (possibly managing to come first in East Lothian or West Dunbartonshire?)

  36. “• ABERDEEN NORTH: 33% SNP majority over CON
    • ABERDEEN SOUTH: 4% SNP majority over CON
    • BANFF & BUCHAN: 20% SNP majority over CON
    • GORDON: 18% SNP majority over CON
    • MORAY: 8% SNP majority over CON
    • WEST ABERDEENSHIRE & KINCARDINE: 2% CON majority over SNP”

    Could you do that for every seat in Scotland?
    I think East Dunbartonshire will be an interesting Council to watch.

  37. “Most councils with Labour ahead will go over to the Tories and SNP, although I believe they will hold on in pockets (possibly managing to come first in East Lothian or West Dunbartonshire?)”

    I think your West Dunbartonshire projection is based on Labour’s retention of Dumbarton last May. Don’t forget that the Jackie Baillie will have picked up much Con/ Lib Dem support within the Argyll & Bute council area of that constituency where here position of Trident will not have gone down like a lead balloon.

    I think that the SNP will have won within Dumbarton and The Vale of Leven. Dumbarton overall still swung to the SNP by 2.7%, so if Baillie did better within Helensburgh, Cardross, Luss and Faslane than in 2011 (that seems likely), equally the SNP did better in Dumbarton and The Vale of Leven.

    The SNP did incredibly well within Clydebank & Milngavie (11.6% swing from Lab to SNP) that is also mostly within the West Dunbartonshire council area.

    The boundaries are very different. Baillie holding the Dumbarton Holyrood constituency does not equal Labour holding West Dunbartonshire council in 2017 or regaining the West Dunbartonshire constituency in 2020.

  38. “I think that the SNP will have won within Dumbarton and The Vale of Leven. Dumbarton overall still swung to the SNP by 2.7%, so if Baillie did better within Helensburgh, Cardross, Luss and Faslane than in 2011 (that seems likely), equally the SNP did better in Dumbarton and The Vale of Leven.

    The SNP did incredibly well within Clydebank & Milngavie (11.6% swing from Lab to SNP) that is also mostly within the West Dunbartonshire council area.

    The boundaries are very different. Baillie holding the Dumbarton Holyrood constituency does not equal Labour holding West Dunbartonshire council in 2017 or regaining the West Dunbartonshire constituency in 2020.”

    Yes I am aware of that and completely agree. The point is more about Labour’s current position in the council and the boundary arrangements in West Dunbartonshire than Jackie Baillie’s victory in Helensburgh and Lomond…

  39. What is interesting about the four YES authorities is that Labour were not only the largest party in three in 2012 but also had overall majorities.

    It would be a major blow to the SNP if Labour even remained the largest party in Glasgow, West Dunbartonshire or North Lanarkshire.

    I don’t see Labour retaining a majority in Glasgow but strong performance by the Tories in Glasgow where they sneak seats in wards like Partick East/ Kelvindale (that also includes Kelvinside, Hyndland and Dowanhill), Linn, Langside, Newlands and Victoria Park in addition to comfortably holding their seat in Pollokshields could see Labour seats that one would have expected to go SNP go Tory instead. The ultra Unionist position adopted by the Glasgow Tories could see some kind of deal formed with Labour to keep the SNP out even if they had more seats than Labour. Would such a deal be palatable to Labour councillors and activists though?

    The Tories took 11.9% in Glasgow last May so that should be enough to hold their seat Pollokshields and win a seat Partick East/ Kelvindale but the other wards do remain longshots.

  40. According to the Herald internal Labour figures suggest that the 2017 council election result will be along the lines of-
    SNP – 45%
    Con – 25%
    Lab – 15%

    Thoroughly unconvinced that the SNP will take a whopping 45% of the vote with recent council by-election results in mind.

    What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the SNP are on track to sweep Glasgow and much of Labour’s traditionally strong Central Belt.

  41. Well I’m not surprised.

  42. Well that kind of result wouldn’t match up with your guesses of the Tories taking the most votes in Argyll & Bute and East Dunbartonshire to be honest.

  43. Even Aberdeenshire and Edinburgh would most likely go SNP on those figues, the Tories taking Dumfries & Galloway, East Renfrewshire, Scottish Borders and South Ayrshire.

  44. West Dunbartonshire is Labour’s best hope of forming the largest party somewhere in my opinion.

  45. Not surprised by the Conservative showing, surprised the SNP are doing that well

  46. I’m the other way around! I would have thought that the fact that the Tories don’t stand in several councils would mean that they would poll well below their national polling, not above it. Maybe I’m a bit out of date and the Tories have more of a presence in the Borders/Highlands than I thought? Or are those councils pretty irrelevant to the gross figures?

  47. 25% would be nearly twice what the Tories got in 2012!

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