Scotland European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 389503 29% (-0.1%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 348219 25.9% (+5.1%)
3. Ian Duncan (Conservative) 231330 17.2% (+0.4%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (194752)
5. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (174110)
6. David Coburn (UKIP) 140534 10.5% (+5.2%)
. (Scottish Green) 108305 8.1% (+0.8%)
. (Liberal Democrats) 95319 7.1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 13639 1% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10216 0.8% (-1.7%)
. (No2EU) 6418 0.5% (-0.4%)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Ian Duncan (Conservative) Born in Alyth. Educated at Alyth High School and St Andrews University. Public affairs professional and former Scottish Parliamentary clerk. Contested Aberdeen South 2003 Scottish election. MEP for Scotland since 2014.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
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David Coburn (UKIP) Born in Glasgow. Businessman. Contested Old Bexley and Sidcup 2010. MEP for Scotland since 2014.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 321007 29.1% (+9.4%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 229853 20.8% (-5.6%)
3. Struan Stevenson (Conservative) 185794 16.8% (-0.9%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (160504)
5. George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) 127038 11.5% (-1.6%)
6. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (114927)
. (Scottish Green) 80442 7.3% (+0.5%)
. (UKIP) 57788 5.2% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 27174 2.5% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 22135 2% (n/a)
. (Christian) 16738 1.5% (n/a)
. (Scottish Socialist) 10404 0.9% (-4.3%)
. Duncan Robertson (Independent) 10189 0.9% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9693 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 6257 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Struan Stevenson (Conservative) Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
Comments - 477 Responses on “Europe Scotland”
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  1. The MoE on a 100-vote sub-sample is about 10%. So 32% is consistent with the sort of 26-28% figures the Tories have been getting in Scotland.

    I agree with Dalek for the most part on what seats unionist parties might win – with one exception. I do wonder whether the Conservatives might also have a shot at snatching East Renfrewshire from third place as their 22% share last time was artificially lowered by tactical voting for Jim Murphy. Additionally they have since captured the Eastwood constituency in the Scottish Parliament.

  2. Sunday Times/Panelbase poll for Scotland, no figures but apparently it would see Labour wiped out in Scotland and 12 Conservative seats according to John Curtice.

  3. Figures

    SNP 43%
    Con 28%
    Lab 18%
    LDem 9%

  4. The unknown factor in seats like Edinburgh West, East Renfrewshire, East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh South is the extent to which the Conservatives vote was suppressed by tactical voting.

    The tactical Conservative vote in East Renfrewshire is likely to unwind and may also do in the other three seats.

  5. Me from the voteuk site:
    Those polling figures are very difficult to call as we’re moving into uncharted territory: the SNP falling back on the 2014 Yes vote.

    I’ve decided to make some quick guesses on how the vote would go on these figures using the 2014 referendum results and 2016 Scottish Parliament results for reference.

    Here’s what I’ve got:
    Conservative gain from SNP (12):
    Aberdeen South
    Angus
    Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    Dumfries and Galloway
    East Renfrewshire
    Edinburgh South West
    Gordon
    Moray
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Perth and North Perthshire
    Stirling
    West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

    LDem gain from SNP (3):
    East Dunbartonshire
    Edinburgh West
    North East Fife

    I would put Angus; Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock and possibly even Banff & Buchan as quite close Conservative-SNP marginals.

    Labour have held up well in this poll, so I can’t see the Conservatives gaining either East Lothian or Edinburgh South due to pro-Labour tactical voting.

    For the Liberal Democrats I believe Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross would become a close marginal.

  6. Well, I presume – this was certainly the case in the SP election – that the Tory vote will remain largely suppressed in the key LD targets.

  7. If these polling figures are replicated elsewhere and the Conservatives move up more in Scotland Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock would become a viable target for the party. Never thought that was ever possible.

  8. We still have a Panelbase poll due.

  9. Point taken Dalek.

    Labour is going to be a thin smear across the central belt seats with votes everywhere and nowhere strong enough to take seats including Edinburgh South on that polling result.

  10. Panelbase

    SNP 44
    CON 33
    LAB 13
    LDEM 5

  11. On those figures we could also be looking at the Conservatives taking Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock.

  12. These figures would mean –

    SNP 43 (down 13)
    Con 14 (up 13)
    LD 1 (No Change)
    Lab 0 (down 1)

    This would give the Conservatives 4 of the 5 seats in Edinburgh (SNP holding East).

    Aberdeen South
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine
    Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk
    Dumfries & Galloway
    East Lothian
    East Renfrewshire
    Perth & North Perthshire
    Moray
    Stirling

  13. What is incredible is that with a 20% lead over Labour and a swing of around 15% from Conservative to Labour since 2015 is that the Conservatives would beat Labour in every single Scottish constituency except Paisley & Renfrewshire South.

  14. If that poll was reflected on polling day and the Conservatives did win 14 seats in Scotland the following seats would become the batch of seats that the Conservatives would need to win 16 of to win a majority in Scotland (% SNP majority over Con sorted).

    1 – Fife North East (0.2)
    2 – Ochil & South Perthshire (1.2)
    3 – Argyll & Bute (3.9)
    4 – #Orkney & Shetland (3.9)
    5 – Angus (4.8)
    6 – Ayr & Carrick (5.2)
    7 – Lanark & Hamilton East (8.7)
    8 – Edinburgh East (10.8)
    9 – Midlothian (12.6)
    10 – Ayrshire Central (12.8)
    11 – Gordon (13.3)
    12 – Dunfermline & West Fife (14.0)
    13 – Ayrshire North & Arran (14.5)
    14 – *Caithness & Sutherland (15.0)
    15 – Paisley & Renfrewshire North (15.3)
    16 – Banff & Buchan (15.8)
    17 – Linlithgow & Falkirk East (15.9)
    18 – Glasgow North (16.9)
    19 – *Ross Skye & Lochaber (17.8)
    20 – Inverness & Nairn (18.7)
    21 – East Kilbride (20.3)
    22 – Glasgow South (20.7)
    23 – Dundee East (20.9)
    24 – Kilmarnock & Loudoun (21.3)
    25 – Falkirk (21.2)
    26 – Aberdeen North (21.4)
    27 – Inverclyde (21.6)
    28 – Livingston (22.0)

    # Lib Dems in Second Place
    * Lib Dem (not SNP) seat.

  15. What’d I miss? 😛

  16. I think people are getting too excited over these polls. I’m going to make a firm prediction. Conservatives will not win more than 6 seats in Scotland. If I’m wrong, then so be it. I just think you guys are getting far too carried a at at the moment.

  17. It would seem that the SNP-Conservative divide I predicted has emerged.

    I do think it’s hard to fathom the Conservatives getting 33%, but the SNP losing 6% is believable.

    Ruth Davidson has a least detoxified the brand for the Tories, to a point where they can get 30%+ in polls, which even a year ago I was sceptical of.

  18. RUTH 4 PM !!

  19. I think we need a reality check on this.

    33% would be the highest Conservative vote in Scotland since Feb 74 (32.9%).

    I don’t claim any expertise on Scottish politics but given the ebbs and flows of the last 40 years Is this really credible?

  20. To those staring in disbelief at the Scottish polls – do remember that we went through all this just two years ago. In fact I’ll pick out a couple of my own comments from that time:

    On Ross, Skye & Lochaber: “Charles Kennedy is bombproof”

    On Paisley & Renfrewshire South: “Forget the polls, this is a fight between a girl barely out of school and the Shadow Foreign Secretary”

    I think people are at risk of falling into the trap of status-quo bias again.

  21. Fair point but I will remain sceptical for now

  22. Yes, there is a lot of evidence that the Scottish Conservatives ARE surging.

  23. I do agree with that: we should remain cautious about making any firm predictions until nearer the time…

  24. True.

    Although after all you don’t even need to be that high in the polls to win 10 as the Tories did in 1992 in Scotland.

    Although I tend to agree that 5 remains far more likely.

    The LDs should regain 2 or 3 from the SNP too.

  25. Whilst it’s true that a week is a long time in politics, this article illustrates how short a timescale the Parties face:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39658426

    The deadline for Labour applications for seats is today;

    The Tories aren’t even inviting applications.

    LDs expect to have all theirs in place this week.

    There’s 2 Bank Holiday weekends during the campaign.

    People will be voting (by post) in 4 weeks’ time.

  26. Polls on Scottish independence:

    Panelbase
    DK included:
    No 52% (-1)
    Yes 43% (+1)
    DK 5% (=)

    DK excluded:
    No 55% (-1)
    Yes 45% (+1)

    Survation
    DK included:
    No 47% (-1)
    Yes 42% (-1)
    DK 11% (+2)

    DK excluded
    No 53% (=)
    Yes 47% (=)

  27. Sorry Survation figures with DK are

    No 48 (=)
    Yes 43 (=)
    DK 9 (=)

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