Scotland European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 389503 29% (-0.1%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 348219 25.9% (+5.1%)
3. Ian Duncan (Conservative) 231330 17.2% (+0.4%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (194752)
5. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (174110)
6. David Coburn (UKIP) 140534 10.5% (+5.2%)
. (Scottish Green) 108305 8.1% (+0.8%)
. (Liberal Democrats) 95319 7.1% (-4.4%)
. (Britain First) 13639 1% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10216 0.8% (-1.7%)
. (No2EU) 6418 0.5% (-0.4%)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Ian Duncan (Conservative) Born in Alyth. Educated at Alyth High School and St Andrews University. Public affairs professional and former Scottish Parliamentary clerk. Contested Aberdeen South 2003 Scottish election. MEP for Scotland since 2014.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
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David Coburn (UKIP) Born in Glasgow. Businessman. Contested Old Bexley and Sidcup 2010. MEP for Scotland since 2014.

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Ian Hudghton (SNP) 321007 29.1% (+9.4%)
2. David Martin (Labour) 229853 20.8% (-5.6%)
3. Struan Stevenson (Conservative) 185794 16.8% (-0.9%)
4. Alyn Smith (SNP) (160504)
5. George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) 127038 11.5% (-1.6%)
6. Catherine Stihler (Labour) (114927)
. (Scottish Green) 80442 7.3% (+0.5%)
. (UKIP) 57788 5.2% (-1.5%)
. (BNP) 27174 2.5% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 22135 2% (n/a)
. (Christian) 16738 1.5% (n/a)
. (Scottish Socialist) 10404 0.9% (-4.3%)
. Duncan Robertson (Independent) 10189 0.9% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 9693 0.9% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 6257 0.6% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Ian Hudghton (SNP) Former leader of Angus council. MEP for North-East Scotland 1998-1999, for Scotland since 1999.
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David Martin (Labour) Born 1954, Edinburgh. Educated at Libertson High School. Lothian regional councillor 1982-1984. MEP for Lothian 1984. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Struan Stevenson (Conservative) Born 1948, Ballantrae. Educated at West of Scotland Agricultural College. Formerly director of a family farmying and tourism company. Girvan councillor 1970-1974, Kyle and Carrick councillor 1972-1992. Contested Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley 1987, Edinburgh South 1992, Dumfries 1997. North-East Scotland European by-election 1999. MEP for Scotland since 1999.
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Alyn Smith (SNP) Born 1973, Glasgow. Educated at Leeds and Heidelberg Universities. Commercial lawyer. MEP for Scotland since 2004.
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George Lyon (Liberal Democrat) Born 1956, Rothesay. Educated at Rothesay Academy. Farmer. MSP for Argyll and Bute 1999-2007. Deputy Minister for Finance and Parliamentary business in the Scottish executive 2005-2007.
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Catherine Stihler (Labour) Born 1973, Bellshill. Educated at Coltness High School and St Andrews University. Former researcher for Anne Begg. MEP for Scotland since 1999. Contested Angus 1997, Dunfermline and West Fife by-election 2006.
Comments - 271 Responses on “Europe Scotland”
  1. Here’s the rest of the poll:

    ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
    Don’t Knows included:
    51% No (+1)
    43% Yes (-1)
    7% Don’t Know (=)

    Should a second referendum be held…:
    Not in the next few years – 51%
    In the next year or two – 27%
    Two years from now – 23%

    EU MEMBERSHIP
    Don’t Knows included:
    60% Remain
    39% Leave
    <1% Don't Know

  2. And now the SNP don’t want to rejoin the EU…

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15057525.SNP__abandoning_full_EU_membership_for_Brexit_voter_buy_off_/

    So there’s no basis for a second referendum.

  3. And now the SNP don’t want to rejoin the EU…
    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15057525.SNP__abandoning_full_EU_membership_for_Brexit_voter_buy_off_/
    So there’s no basis for a second referendum.

    According to a report, the SNP believe that one third of their voters voted to leave the EU, which makes sense given that about 38% of voters in scotland voted to leave. the SNP, don’t want to alienate these voters, as they would assuredly lose an independence referendum, if a portion of the people who voted YES to independence and LEAVE the EU are alienated by the SNP’s EU philia.

    This would all have been obvious just by looking at the numbers: if 45% voted for independence, and 38% voted to leave, it would be highly likely that there would be a significant number of people who were in both groups.

    Given that the independence vote is only 45% anyway, it doesn’t take an Archbishop of Canterbury to work out that the cause of scottish independence doesn’t have a hope if the pro-independence leavers are alienated. The SNP are in serious danger of overplaying their hand on this. I would argue that they have already done so.

    Politicians are not very bright.

  4. They want to join the EFTA which is a sure way to have most of the problems associated with the EU without actually remaining a part of it.

  5. “They want to join the EFTA which is a sure way to have most of the problems associated with the EU without actually remaining a part of it”.

    The SNP have shot their bolt. They got 45% in the independence referendum, so need to expand their support.

    If, say 15% (a third of 45%) of the electorate voted to leave the UK AND the EU, the SNP need to tread wearily on the whole “we love the EU” line, to get to 50% needed to win. They have only belatedly, it would appear, realised this.

  6. The Nats want to join EFTA and the EEA.

    They are distinct, but it’s the latter of the two that is unwelcome. The reason they and others want the UK to join (or, technically, remain a member of) the EEA is because they think it will allow us to easily rejoin the EU somewhere down the line.

    EEA supporters like Clegg and others are being quite open about this. The economic arguments are just a bit of window dressing.

  7. Holy crap!

    SNP 47% (-3%)
    Con 27% (+6%)
    Lab 15% (-1%)
    LD 4% (-1%)
    SUNDAY TIMES POLL

  8. New polling figures looking very healthy for the Conservatives:

    47% Scottish National
    27% Conservative
    15% Labour
    4% Liberal Democrat

    On the initial proposed boundary changes the seat allocation would probably be as follows:
    SNP 42 (-14)
    Con 9 (+8)
    Lib 2 (+1)
    Lab 0 (-1)

    This would be on the upper end of my suggestion of 2-9 seats for the Tories. To gain Perth and Moray they would need to have the SNP polling down at around 45% of the vote.

    On those figures following initial proposed constituencies would go probably Conservative/have a chance of going Conservative:
    * Aberdeen South
    * Ayr and Carrick
    * Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk
    * Clydesdale and Eskdale
    * Dumfries and Galloway
    * Eastwood and Loudoun
    * Edinburgh South West and Central
    * Gordon and Deeside (Alex Salmond’s constituency)
    * Kincardine and Angus East

    The Liberal Democrats would most likely take Orkney & Shetland and Edinburgh West.

    On the current boundaries I believe that the Conservatives would only manage around 6 or 7 seats.

  9. New BMG poll

    ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
    Don’t Knows included:
    45% No (-2)
    43% Yes (+3)
    10% Don’t Know (-3)

    Don’t Knows excluded:
    51% No (-3)
    49% Yes (+3)

    For or Against a second referendum to be held before the UK leaves the EU?
    Don’t Knows included:
    48% Against (-7)
    38% For (+4)
    13% Don’t Know (+2)

    Don’t Knows excluded:
    56% Against (-5)
    44% For (+5)

    Decent figures for Yes although chances are it’s an outlier.

  10. It seams there’s quite a few people who support independence but don’t want a second referendum. It would be interesting to uncover their reasoning.

  11. They probably don’t feel that they don’t want to risk loosing another referendum and would prefer to wait until the climate is better.

  12. NTY UK@ What’s interesting about that poll is not just the potential Conservative gains but also the places that the Conservatives may overtake Labour.

  13. In all seriousness I would expect the Conservatives to overtake Labour in the following seats:

    Aberdeen North
    Aberdeen South
    Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock
    East Dunbartonshire
    East Lothian
    East Renfrewshire
    Edinburgh South
    Edinburgh South West
    Glasgow North
    Glasgow South
    Ochil & South Perthshire
    Stirling

  14. @Dalek: Yes that’s a very good point.

    On the figures above the Conservatives would be looking at outpolling Labour in all six proposed constituencies covering Ayrshire, coming first in Ayr & Carrick and Eastwood & Loudoun.

    They would also be looking at outpolling Labour across all eight Lothian constituencies, coming first in Edinburgh South West & Central.

    I’d imagine that just about every constituency in the east of Scotland other than Dundee and Glenrothes & Kirkcaldy would have the Conservatives ahead of Labour.

    In Greater Glasgow the Conservatives would also be looking at coming second in seats like East Dunbartonshire and East Kilbride.

  15. The boundary changes to Glasgow South remove Conservative parts of Cathcart and Pollokshields and add in Gorbals and Govanhill. The new Glasgow North will be successor to the current Glasgow North East. By contrast the new Glasgow South West and Glasgow Central will become the strongest constituencies in Glasgow for the Conservatives. Central will include Glasgow’s West End, Merchant City and riverside development while South West will include all of Pollokshields, Shawlands and part of Cathcart.

  16. To be honest I struggle to see how any of the proposed Glasgow constituencies would have the Conservatives in second place on those figures with Glasgow South all but obliterated.

    Glasgow Central is effectively a slightly more pro-SNP/pro-Labour version of the Glasgow Kelvin Holyrood constituency which had the Conservatives well behind in fourth place back in 2016.

    Glasgow West is effectively very similar to the Glasgow Anniesland Holyrood constituency only with some more pro-Green areas. So the Conservatives are unlikely to come second there.

    I guess that Glasgow South West was probably the best constituency for No in Glasgow at the 2014 independence referendum (although it probably voted marginally Yes): so in that respect it’s the most likely constituency in Glasgow to have the Conservatives in second, although it’s important to remember that a good half of the constituency is very working class in nature: the Conservatives are absolutely dead in these areas and struggle to come second in most middle class areas in the city of Glasgow itself.

  17. Assuming that Glasgow South West did vote Yes it’s actually possible to create a seat wholly in Glasgow which voted against Scottish independence by swapping out Craigton for Langside in the proposed Glasgow South West constituency.

    You can also create a reasonable No constituency from the Maryhill/Kelvin, Partrick West, Hillhead and Garscadden/Scotstounhill: making my previous assertion that it is impossible to create no No seats located wholly in Glasgow very wrong !

  18. It’s an interesting remark on both cities to think that it’s impossible to create a constituency in Edinburgh which voted in favour of independence (even by combining its most working class areas together), while in Glasgow it’s only possible to create a constituency which voted against independence by joining up its more affluent suburbs.

  19. Panelbase:

    DK removed
    54 No (=)
    46 Yes (=)

  20. DK included:
    51 No (=)
    44 Yes (+1)
    6 Don’t Know (-1)

    Voting intention by football club:
    Celtic –
    71 Yes
    29 No

    Rangers –
    63 No
    37 Yes

    Other –
    53 Yes
    47 No

    Don’t support any –
    59 No
    41 Yes

  21. Fascinating! Thanks.

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