Northern Ireland European Region

2009 Election
Barbara de Brun (Sinn Fein) 126184 26.0% (-0.3%)
Diane Dodds (DUP) 88346 18.2% (-14%)
Jim Nicholson (UCUNF) 82893 17.1% (+0.5%)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 78489 16.2% (+0.3%)
Jim Allister (Traditional Unionist) 66197 13.6% (n/a)
Ian Parsley (Alliance) 26699 5.5% (n/a)
Steven Agnew (Green) 15764 3.2% (+2.3%)
Turnout 42.8% (-8.9%)
Barbara de Brun (Sinn Fein) ELECTED
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 94814 +16325
Jim Nicholson (UCUNF) 94285 +11392
Diane Dodds (DUP) 91260 +2914
Jim Allister (Traditional Unionist) 70481 +4284
Barbara de Brun (Sinn Fein) ELECTED
Jim Nicholson (UCUNF) 132227 +37942
Diane Dodds (DUP) 115722 +24462
Alban Maguinness (SLDP) 97428 +2614
Current Sitting MEPs
Martina Anderson (Sinn Fein) Born 1962, Derry. Convicted of conspiring to cause explosions in 1986 and jailed until her release under the Good Friday Agreement in 1998. MLA for Foyle 2007-2012. Contested Foyle 2010. MEP for Northern Ireland since 2012, replacing Bairbre de Brun on her resignation.
Jim Nicholson (Ulster Conservatives and Unionists - New Force) Born 1945, Armagh. Farmer. Armagh councillor 1976-1997. MP for Newry and Armagh 1983-1985, the only MP to lose their seat in the by-elections following the mass resignation of Unionist MPs in protest over the Anglo-Irish agreement. Contested Newry and Armagh 1987. MEP for Northern Ireland since 1989.
Diane Dodds (DUP) Born 1958, County Down. Educated at Banbridge Academy and Queens University. Former teacher. Belfast councillor since 2005. MLA for West Belfast 2003-2007. Married to North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds. MEP for Northern Ireland since 2009.
Comments - 259 Responses on “Europe Northern Ireland”
  1. Latest NI poll is a good one for the DUP.

    LucidTalk publish their polls to one decimal point, and they’ve been very reliable in the past. In brackets are the results compared with 2015.
    DUP 29.4 (+3.7)
    SF 27.7 (+3.2)
    UUP 14.8 (-1.2)
    SDLP 12.4 (-1.5)
    APNI 10.2 (+1.6)
    GRN 1.8 (+0.8)
    PBP 1.4 (+0.5)
    TUV 0.6 (-1.7)
    PUP 0.3 (+0.3)
    UKIP 0.1 (-2.5)
    CON 0.1 (-1.2)
    OTH 1.2 (-2.2)

    UNIONIST 45.3 (-2.6)
    NATIONALIST 40.1 (+1.7)

    I think that based on these figures:
    Belfast East, Belfast North and Upper Bann will be DUP holds.
    Belfast South should remain a tight marginal with the DUP being the slight favourite.
    Fermanagh & South Tyrone should also remain a tight marginal with SF being the slight favourite.
    Foyle could be close between the SDLP and SF, but the SDLP are the favourite.
    South Antrim will go DUP.
    South Down will go SF.

    DUP 10 (+2)
    SF 6 (+2)
    SDLP 1 (-2)
    IND 1 (=)
    UUP 0 (-2)

    I could see Belfast South going SDLP and I could also see Fermanagh & South Tyrone staying UUP.

  2. That would be very disappointing, seeing the two sane parties losing ground. But then that’s the way NI seems to be going

  3. How big was the sample size? The fact that they are publishing the poll percentages to a decimal point indicates either that they took a huge sample (>10k) or that they are being disingenuously precise.

  4. LucidTalk have a very good record, including for the Assembly election this year. But hard to extrapolate NI results from a universal swing as much depends on who runs where and local factors. I’d agree it is probable the UUP will again be wiped out, this time probably for good. The Alliance must stand a decent chance of re-taking Belfast East, and perhaps also challenging in the wide open seat of Belfast South, off the back of good results in the Assembly election.

  5. I agree on the Alliance, I think Naomi Long’s personal popularity could see her retaking Belfast East.

  6. According to LucidTalk’s seat predictor there is a-
    55% chance of a SF gain from UUP in Fermanagh & South Tyrone
    60% chance of a SDLP hold in Belfast South over the DUP
    65% chance of a DUP hold in Belfast East over APNI
    75% chance of a DUP ahold in Upper Bann over UUP or SF
    75% chance of a UUP hold in South Antrim over DUP
    80% chance of a SDLP hold in South Down over SF
    85% chance of a SDLP hold in Foyle over SF
    90% chance of a DUP hold in Belfast North over SF
    95% chance of a SF hold in Newry & Armagh over UUP or SDLP

    Their odds are actually very good for the UUP and SDLP, although I believe this was produced before the poll was published.

  7. SF have called on the SDLP to stand aside to help SF.

  8. Paul D – that’s incredibly patronising.

    Plus the SDLP & the UUP have been in decline for over a decade.

    Polltroll – you don’t need 10,000 samples in NI, just 2 or 3k

  9. Ind Hold North Down (just, after a big DUP surge):

    Ind 16,148
    DUP 14,940

  10. DUP Gain South Antrim from UUP:

    DUP Girvan 16,508
    UUP Kinahan 13,300

  11. DUP Gain South Belfast from SDLP:

    DUP 13,299
    SDLP 11,303

  12. Another one I did tell people I was certain of:

    East Belfast

    DUP Robinson 23,917
    Alliance Naomi 15,443

    The UUP took votes from the Alliance not the DUP, not that the UUP made much of a difference here or anywhere.

  13. Curious to think that the DUP’s 2 gains may have been the most important results in the election. Without them, a Conservative / DUP coalition would have been barely credible.

  14. To be fair they already had 8.

    Or the SF gains as each gain means you need fewer for a majority as they don’t take their seats.

  15. Incidentally I have been amused by the hatred directed at the DUP from the far Left on the mainland.

    Those same far Left activists agree with the DUP policies on welfare but now hate them because the DUP are proposing them!

  16. @ Lancs

    “Or the SF gains as each gain means you need fewer for a majority as they don’t take their seats.”

    That’s a fair point.

    May has an effective majority of 13 with 328 Con +DUP seats against 315 Lab +others, and 7 SF not attending Westminster.

    Sinn Fein beating the SDLP in Foyle added 1 to her majority, and if all 7 Sinn Fein seats had been SDLP, the ‘majority’ wound be a barely-viable 6 – even with the DUP’s support.

  17. I think Sky said 16 but maybe they deducted the Speaker and team who don’t vote.

  18. Incidentally (and as I occasionally mention on here that I see more former MPs than current politicians on my travels), last week I spotted:

    * Esther McVey [she was still a former MP on Tuesday]

    * Bob McCartney, ex-North Down MP

    * Robert Kilroy-Silk [an ex-MEP I realise, but as an ex-Party Leader I thought he deserved a mention]

    Kilroy and Esther were both ‘made up’ (in the make up sense not the Merseyside meaning) and Bob McCartney seemed pleased that I knew who he was.

    To be fair I had googled him whilst on the train just to double check I was right in who I thought it was. For any who are interested these days he’s still a QC and Chairman of the National Grammar School Association. He’s retired from politics.

    My search found this which will amuse psephologists on here (I hadn’t actually realised he’d stood throughout the 1980s and not won a seat until the 1995 By-election. I think Real Unionist is my favourite title of all of those he used over the years):

  19. Also I forgot to mention that the Lucid Talk NI Poll was accurate indeed.

  20. It looks like the £1bn to NI is a one-off for the next two years not an addition to the usual grant, if you look at what it’s for (one off costs relating to Health, infrastructure and deprivation in communities).

    Which is a relief IMHO, as that means it’s basically peanuts compared to anybody’s manifesto commitments for ongoing new costs (or cost savings) on anything, year on year.

  21. Yes, the £1.5 Bn was always what I expected (as well as the 2% spending commitment on Defence and so on), although the £1 Bn is upfront and not spread over 5 years.

    The 10 DUP MPs won’t take the Tory Whip, but they will receive the emails.

    It’ll be reviewed after 2 years by the co-ordination committee of 6 (3 from each side) and then annually in years 3 and 4.

  22. So its not the 2 billion figure Arlene Foster protested was made but 1.5 billion…

  23. Ha ha

  24. Matt W – AFAIK £1.5 Bn is in UK Govt spending > NI (which Foster said outside Downing Street today).

    I think the other £ is for victims of PIRA attacks – which is being surcharged from Libya so presumably involves no cost to UK taxpayers.

  25. and apparently has no implication on the Barnett Formula as well. I can see the leaflets going out in the 13 Tory seats in Scotland already.

  26. I could see that argument in England, but of course Scotland also receives “too much £” per capita.

    Maybe the SNP should have used their tax raising powers when they still had a majority?

    I only just caught Salmond’s losing rant – it’s certainly worth catching.

  27. Ill have a look tonight

  28. Very interesting.. I live in Leeds and we’ve been wanting money for a tram here for years. Guess the only way we’ll get one is by blackmailing the government.

  29. I wouldn’t if I were you. Lpool wasted a Billion on a failed tram scheme and Manc’s network seems to fail once a fortnight.

    I was impressed by Sheffield’s though (if only cos they go uphill).

    Wasn’t Leeds promised some new road or rail line as isn’t there only a single congested one to Manc?

  30. ‘Wasn’t Leeds promised some new road or rail line as isn’t there only a single congested one to Manc?’

    There are plans for a ‘high speed’ rail link between Manchester and Leeds, although everything has gone quiet on that. More than likely they’ll just increase the speeds of existing conventional lines, as it takes ages to get from Manc to Leeds currently – well, a lot longer than it should.

    As for the trams in Manc – I don’t have much experience with them but they have to be better than buses!

  31. I visited Oslo last month. Wonderful trams

  32. “I only just caught Salmond’s losing rant – it’s certainly worth catching”.

    It seemed he needed a quick lesson in the difference between winning a majority of the votes and merely a plurality. The SNP achieved the latter, not the former.

  33. Just to be clear, it’s £1b of new spending – one-off not added to grant (though whether it’s ever repeated in eg 2019 who knows?).

    Not £1.5b – some people have got confused (or rather, read the headlines of the media that want to make it sound ‘worse’ than it is), regarding the £500m of existing budget which has now been granted more flexibility in what it’s spent on – but it’s NOT new money.

  34. ‘Just to be clear’- grrrrrrrrrr. Drives me insane when trotted out by Tory politicians, and even worse when their online fangirls write it!

  35. Tristan

    Just to be clear, you’re trolling cr*p. 🙂

  36. I don’t think you understand the word ‘trolling’. You know it’s not trolling when what someone writes is true, right?

    Have a nice day sweetheart 🙂

  37. 3 Belfast SDLP Cllrs have been suspended from the Party for refusing to condemn an anti-abortion group.

    Cllr Declan Boyle said, “I thought the Party was Pro-Life. I am proud to be Pro-Life and do not regret my decision one bit.”

    The Leader of the SDLP Group (and former Lord Mayor) Cllr Pat Convery and Deputy Leader Cllr Kate Mullan were also suspended, leaving the SDLP Group with just 4 City Cllrs.

  38. Guy Verhofstadt has said that the Republic of Ireland will have extra seats in the European Parliament after Brexit, to accommodate voters in Northern Ireland with Irish passports.

  39. I was astounded by the DUP gain of Belfast South.

    The SDLP won that seat while it was majority unionist on a split unionist vote but it has become much more mixed ever since.

    It seems that the soft former Unionist vote may have come back from the Alliance.

  40. Alliance were only up 1% whilst the UUP dropped over 5%. Clearly lots of them switched over to the DUP, and perhaps a few switched over to Alliance and the SDLP, negating their losses to Sinn Fein here.

  41. Ex-Sinn Fein Cllr Jonathan Dowdall has been jailed for 12 years for torturing a man.

  42. whoa that’s pretty mental

  43. That’s Sinn Fein/the IRA for you. They were also out intimidating voters in Derry/Londonderry at the general election and forcefully keeping polling stations open in heavily Sinn Fein areas to win the narrow election…

  44. Intimidation and torturing someone aint wuite comparable. This bloke didnt do it cause hes an irish nationalist but because hes nutjob

  45. Or maybe he did it because he’s an Irish nationalist nutjob?

  46. I’m surprised Matt’s surprised.

    If you think that’s extreme read up on what they did to two of our soldiers (part of which was on live tv).

    Plus of course intimidation only really works because of the real threat of violence that goes with it.

  47. Still no progress on DUP-SF talks, which resumed today.

    In my view it seems like the DUP hold allthe trump cards and Sinn Fein will have to be the ones to back down eventually. As the threat of direct rule from Westminster (where, incidentally, the DUP has unprecedented leverage) draws closer, surely Sinn Fein will have to make concessions. Yes, the DUP wouldn’t want home rule either but for Sinn Fein it would be Hell on Earth, to them it would feel like occupation by a foreign country.

  48. Of course, amusingly Gerry Adams has moved to a foreign Country.

  49. Many of those in the troubles did like Johnny Adair and Sam McCrory

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