North West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Theresa Griffin (Labour) 594063 33.9% (+13.5%)
2. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 481932 27.5% (+11.7%)
3. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) 351985 20.1% (-5.5%)
4. Afzal Khan (Labour) (297032)
5. Louise Bours (UKIP) (240966)
6. Julie Ward (Labour) (198021)
7. Sajjad Karim (Conservative) (175993)
8. Steven Woolfe (UKIP) (160644)
. (Green) 123075 7% (-0.7%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 105487 6% (-8.3%)
. (BNP) 32826 1.9% (-6.1%)
. (Independence from Europe) 25999 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 19522 1.1% (-1.3%)
. (Pirate) 8597 0.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 5402 0.3% (-1.1%)
. (Socialist Equality) 5067 0.3% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
Theresa Griffin (Labour) Educated at Lancaster University. Trade union organiser. Former Liverpool councillor. Contested North West European election 1999, 2004, 2009. MEP for North West since 2014
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
Afzal Khan (Labour) Born 1960, Pakistan. Solicitor. Manchester councillor since 2000. MEP for North West since 2014. Awarded the CBE for services to race relations.
Louise Bours (UKIP) Educated at Mountview Conservatoire for the Performing Arts. Singer and actor. Former Congleton councillor. Contested Cheshire Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014
Julie Ward (Labour) Born 1957, Ripon. Educated at Newcastle University. Ran a social enterprise providing services for people with mental health problems. MEP for North West since 2014
Sajjad Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for the North West since 2004.. Originally elected as a Liberal Democrat, he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
Steven Woolfe (UKIP) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Barrister. Contested City and East 2012 London Assembly election, Greater Manchester Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Robert Atkins (Conservative) 423174 25.6% (+1.5%)
2. Arlene McCarthy (Labour) 336831 20.4% (-6.9%)
3. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 261740 15.8% (+3.7%)
4. Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) 235639 14.3% (-1.6%)
5. Saj Karim (Conservative) (211587)
6. Brian Simpson (Labour) (168416)
7. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) (141058)
8. Nick Griffin (BNP) 132194 8% (+1.6%)
. (Green) 127133 7.7% (+2.1%)
. (English Democrats) 40027 2.4% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 26224 1.6% (n/a)
. (Christian) 25999 1.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 23580 1.4% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 8783 0.5% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 6980 0.4% (n/a)
. Francis Apaloo (Independent) 3621 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
Robert Atkins (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Educated at Highgate School. Haringey councillor 1968-1977. MP for Preston North 1979-1983, South Ribble from 1983-1997. Knighted in 1997. MEP for North West England since 1999. Minister of Transport 1989-1990, Minister of Sport 1990-1992, Minister of State at Northern Ireland Office 1992-1994, Minister of State, Environment 1994-1995.
Arlene McCarthy (Labour) Born 1960, Belfast. Formerly a European liasion officer for Kirkless council. MEP since 1994.
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954, Lytham St Annes. Educated at Cheadle Hulme School and Cambridge University. MP for Littleborough and Saddleworth 1995-1997. Contested Oldham East and Saddleworth 1997. MEP for the North West since 1999. Former leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament, he stepped down in 2008 after being criticised over a reply to a constituent that accused her of racism. 
Saj Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for North West England since 2004, orginally elected as a Liberal Democrat he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
Brian Simpson (Labour) Born 1953, Leigh. Former PE teacher. Former Warrington councillor and Merseyside county councillor. MEP for Cheshire East 1989-1999, MEP for North-West 1999-2004 when he lost his seat. He returned to the European Parliament in 2006 following the resignation of Terry Wynn.
Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
Nick Griffin (BNP) Born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and edited BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has pursued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005, Barking 2010 for the BNP.


Comments - 381 Responses on “Europe North West”
  1. I just realised that if the Tory result is as dire as the latest EU polls, ex-LD MEP Saj Karim would be out on his ear here (with just 4 or 5 Cons MEPs returned – from other regions).

    HH semi-predicted that there’d be trouble in Oldham. From the Mail photos, it seems the “Muslim Defence League” youths (from Huddersfield) attacked some locals. Whilst GMP are possibly the most PC and useless police constabulary, maybe Tommy knew that and wanted the publicity.

    My only other ‘NW news’ is again from the postal vote opening, in which Tommy apparently had the first 4 votes from one ward. I’m told, noticeable as he’s the bottom of the ballot. Could mean nothing, as could all just be one household. He’s now 7/4 to be elected.

    I’m surprised to see Ladbrokes have 40-50% turnout as favourite in these Euros. Isn’t turnout always only 30-35%?

  2. From Labour sources Tommy Robinson is getting 6-10% in Oldham and Rochdale but will get negligible votes in Manchester and Trafford. They have calculated that with the rural north west not likely to be good for him either he will need 15%+ in Oldham and Rochdale to have a chance of being elected which they see as almost impossible.

  3. @ Lancs Observer

    It is interesting that both of us have the same sort of feeling on Robinson. It still seems a long shot to me that he would get a seat but there’s just no discounting it. How anecdotal was your postal vote opening story? Presumably they would have seen a lot more votes than just the first 4 and of course other wards?

    Yougov poll with crossbreak sample size of 1,000 has:

    BXP 32%- 3 in the bag. 4th seat at 8%
    Lab 22%- Almost certainly 2 seats- no chance of three- would have to drop to 18% or lower for only one and Yougov not Lab friendly compared to other pollsters (doesn’t mean they are wrong).
    Lib Dem 17%- Looks like 1 but given direction of travel could squeeze a 2nd at 8.5% or a higher overall vote.
    Green & Tory 9- Both would get one seat but very close.

    So BXP 3, Lab 2, LD 1, Con 1 Green 1 most likely on Yougov but competitive between BXP, LD, Con & Green for 7th & 8th seats.

    Yougov remains very different to, for example, Comres from last night where Lab vote was still higher than BXP but those crossbreaks of 200 are not big enough. There still seems to be a national discrepancy between Yougov and the rest. Wouldn’t take too much for the YouGov to be out to change the dynamics.

    Also Yougov showing Robinson 1% for the North West which is up to 1.5% as 33% are don’t know/won’t say/will not vote and that assumes 66% turnout. Some other candidate is on 1% and will not say 2%. Not sure if Mohammad Aslam or EDL account for these others.

  4. shevii – it was the Saturday morning opening, so there weren’t many. I can’t reveal figures, but the 4 represented 25% that day in that ward. But such small numbers reveals very little.

    bm11 – are you sure about “negligible in Manchester?” As wards there had big BNP votes even before and after their surge in the 2007-2009 period. I can dig out the figures, but of course eg 5% (of Manc or Lpool) is worth a lot due to their sheer size compared to eg Knowsley where the BNP came 2nd in 2009.

    Incidentally, Robinson is holding rallies in Bootle and Huyton today and I clip I saw online showed him showing the MDL violence in Oldham on the big screen.

  5. For comparison, I just looked at the 2009 polls and results.

    Labour polled below all 15 opinion polls on the day.

    The BNP polled 6.2% (polls had them at 1% to 2%)

    Polls had UKIP accurately.

    So Labour always underperform in EU elections and maybe people don’t say they’ll vote BNP – or pollsters just don’t ask that demographic much.

  6. @ Lancs

    I hadn’t been long up here in 2009 so I’m not that clued in on what went on back then and you’ve already given some background info I didn’t know.

    The one thing I’m not sure is how the BNP were viewed in the North around 2009. I think there were big differences between London and the North in how people saw them. In London BNP was largely seen as boot boy thugs and there was plenty of evidence for this but I get the feeling the North saw things a bit differently and BNP had a slightly different sort of activist with many not that different to BXP (old men) that were not into violence.

    So I wanted to ask if the Tommy Robinson image is significantly different to the BNP image in North West back in 2009 which I would say limits his chances or not that dissimilar?

    On turnout, for what it is worth the logic says that Lab and Con voters in the middle would be less bothered to vote whereas pure remain and pure leave are more motivated. I suspect Yougov might be closer to the truth than the others but then other polling companies also show that trend anyway so it is really down to the degree to which this is true.

    Yes- I suspect they would miss at least some shy Tommy or a demographic that doesn’t answer opinion polls. If there was a surge it seems more likely to be on the day than postal votes.

  7. I think that (thug) image was true of the BNP in the ’80s and ’90s in both the East end of London and up here in Rochdale etc. That limited their appeal, but even back then they had limited success eg Millwall ward by-election in 1993 and a few others where they polled 20% in ward by-elections and saved their deposit in a couple of Parliamentary ones.

    Their electoral success came when they moved away from the Tyndall image to Nick Griffin’s more modern tactics in the 2000s but it still took 5 years for them to go from a Cllr to 50+.

    Hard to say, but I think Robinson is tapping into more non-voters than Griffin did.

  8. Chris Cavanagh, Co-Chair of Liverpool Momentum has tweeted that he was gutted how many turned up to support Robinson.

    Apparently there were 300+ locals in Huyton (and 50 counter protestors).

    My colleague who attended said around 30 queued for selfies.

    Robinson has just said, “We’re going to win and votes from Liverpool will do it.”

  9. North West regional prediction:

    Brex: 4
    Lab: 1
    LD: 1
    Con: 1
    Grn: 1

    Realistically, to get elected Tommy Robinson has to finish higher than one of the established parties. I don’t see that happening.

  10. I don’t think Robinson had a success in Liverpool.

    This is purely based on the twitterati but the defining messages from social media were that his campaign organiser called Liverpool a sh*thole and that his team were walking around with copies of the Sun (the impression being it was meant as a wind up). The sh*thole is on video, the Sun anecdotal.

    Whether this puts off people inclined to vote for Robinson is another matter but the media message will have been against him.

    @ Polltroll

    I can’t at present agree with your Lab 1 seat. The Yougov poll is the most negative for Labour and 22% has to drop further still to not get 2.

    The bar looks set too high for Robinson. With 2 from 4 all on about 9% for the last two seats it seems not much less than 10% needed to win 8th seat I think. With 4 in contention if one party gets less than 8% one of the others will get 10%.

  11. shevii – I was quoting from the twitterati and the antifa who conceded they were outnumbered 5:1 in Huyton. [I think you’re referring to ‘citizen journalist’ James Goddard in Bootle, who isn’t organising the Robinson campaign]

    Even In Bootle though the counter protestors failed in their attempt to block the road and the event went ahead with 150 supporters. The national media message being skewed is probably working in Robinson’s favour.

  12. PT – A fair assessment. However, whilst of course it is possible I think it unlikely the Greens will win a seat in the NW.

    They ran a very visible campaign in both 2009 and 2014, by Peter Cranie – only for them to lose out to the BNP in 2009 and their vote share actually fell in 2014. [They then peaked in the 2015 GE then fell away after Corbyn]

    Their No.1 is a Lancaster Cllr who has been standing in these elections since 1999. It’s possible to get elected on the back of a national surge, but Lancaster is so remote from the rest of the region and their gains in the locals eg in Knowsley (n parish & borough) has never translated into votes in GEs or Euros in the NW.

    Yes, it remains unlikely Robinson will be elected (as Inds just aren’t), but I can certainly see him beating the Greens in most urban boroughs up here.

  13. I just spotted on YouGov’s surveys of public figures, that Tommy Robinson comes out as the 11th most well known. (8960 people were asked over the past year)

    12% view him positively (saying he’s confident, brave and stands up for ordinary people).

    37% have a negative opinion of him.

    He’s also more well known amongst millennials than older age groups.

    So on that basis it’s all down to voter registration and turnout.

  14. Fine then, make that two Labour MEPs and none for the Greens.

  15. I think it will be 3 BXP, 2 Lab, 1 Con/LD/Green myself but only literally based on the yougov poll with no inside knowledge. Yes the Green does look the dodgiest but BXP probably need to get to 36% to 40% for a 4th and can’t quite see the Lib Dems getting to 20% unless they squeeze the Green vote further. It feels to me like any squeezing will already show up in national polls- different to local elections where they can do “winning here” a couple of days before. Also some of the remain tactical vote sites seem to be switching to Green now that LD are well established.

    Still not had any Green, Tory or LD leaflets.

    I do think that what is left of Lab and Con vote will not have good turnout and that pro and anti Brexit parties will be more motivated but I still come back to the assumption that Yougov has already factored this in (being worse for Lab than other polling companies) and presumably know from their samples who has already voted by post.

    Any news on turnout on postal votes?

  16. HH – Here’s a piece on a Robinson’s rally (and not just cos a colleague wrote it):

    There were 600 – 700 and just 40 counter protestors.

    Shevii – I’m reluctant to reveal anymore re postal vote openings, but a friend is attending daily in Lancs. Robinson again achieved above quota today, but as I’ve said previously it’s just one ward and based on just 40-50 papers per day IIRC.

  17. doubt= doubtlless

  18. Shevii – my friend was warned that it’s an offence to reveal voting and turnout figures (as presumably knowing it’s eg low in a Labour area and high in a Tory one helps one side). I’m told it was low last week, but has picked up now and is 50% in the area he’s watching. But postal turnout is always higher than polling station turnout.

    The Robinson vote appears to be as polarised as many communities are in the North West, ie it won’t surprise you to know that he apparently only received 1 vote in a city centre ward PVO, but received 25% in an outer council estate one in the same city.

    It really is two different worlds up here – often in the same town and city just a mile or two apart. eg my colleague tells me that there were 5 locals (not together) who turned up wearing Tommy Robinson tshirts in Preston and the 2 tradesmen said they’d been wearing them all day with only positive responses (I assume they’re self-employed, as I doubt many employers would allow that!). The demographic was the same as described previously: tradesmen, youths, ex-forces and women with young children. He seems to have a celebrity status ie it’s only in part his politics why they want a selfie with him.

    [Whether they all turnout is another matter and some will undoubtedly have just turned up because events just don’t happen in these areas, but I have now revised my 2-4% prediction to the upper limit of that, with a possibility of 5%+ given what I’m hearing from Burnley, Oldham etc] Do you have any insight from the Wigan area?

  19. @ Lancs

    Thanks for info- didn’t realise you weren’t allowed to leak PV turnout either. Have you any idea what gossip might be floating around during the count given the rules about exit polls etc? I guess twitter will ignore any rules anyway but was looking at Guardian live feed for 2014 and either they seemed strict with the ruling as no gossip before 10pm.

    Sorry no gossip from Wigan- I’m not that close to things. There doesn’t seem to be any sense of panic about Tommy within LP, just what I assume would be the usual last minute attempts to get people to leaflet and stop the far right but that is just a national message I think.

    Also if I remember rightly in that Isle of Dogs by election where BNP got their first seat there was some debate about whether it was clever to alert people to the prospect of Derek Beackon getting the seat and perhaps ending up with the wrong GOTV, especially as there was evidence ethnic minorities were worried about being seen voting.

  20. GOTV is different in Greater Manchester than a racially divided single ward by- election. That type of campaigning worked for Labour in Bedfordshire in 2012 – a far right candidate was standing for PCC and the threat of that was used by Labour to push turnout up in Luton.

  21. shevii – Well Unite have just launched a £1m campaign, on 50 billboards and full page adverts in most NW newspapers to combat Robinson.

    It was the LDs on the Isle of Dogs who were accused of racism, in the run-up to the Millwall by-election. But yes, anti-leaflets actually increased the BNP vote in 2008 and 2009 in NW wards as the leaflets were patronising and from outsiders.

    Burnley was Robinson’s penultimate rally tonight: 300 supporters v 30 protestors.

    bm11 – from memory, the only reason Labour won that PCC in Beds was because the Tories fielded an Asian candidate and the EDL’s Party polled almost as many votes as him, ie a split white/anti-Labour vote.

  22. “Tories fielded an Asian candidate and the EDL’s Party polled almost as many votes as him”

    The British Freedom candidate split the vote (and didn’t trasnfer in second preferences) but he was way below the Conservative total. He polled 10.6% while Tory candidate got 31.9%.

  23. Just spotted that the Liberal Party have endorsed the Brexit Party in these elections. They refer to the “Illiberal Un-democrats and apologise on behalf of the Liberal tradition for their stance.” More on the Liberal Party site and here:

    In the South West, Mebyon Kernow have endorsed the Green Party this Thursday.

  24. shevii – I just spotted that in fact Robinson held another rally tonight (after Burnley) in Blackburn. 300 attended.

    Clips of all of them are separately listed on the site, so you can compare the crowds in each. From what I’m told the size of the crowds were largest in Preston then Blackpool, Wigan, Oldham, Huyton, Birkenhead etc so it’ll be interesting to see if that’s matched by those boroughs on Thursday.

  25. Haven’t seen those Unite posters yet so not sure if the message is a general one or targeted at Robinson which could backfire.

    I take BM11’s point but I still think it is finely balanced as you are playing GOTV for left of centre voters vs name recognition and promoting Robinson’s chances. In actual fact they might be better getting out the Tory/BXP vote based on the mega Yougov!

    Let’s remember this isn’t an election where it is an either/or. I’m sure any gains Robinson has made during the campaign are because of high profile and people realising he is standing rather than the usual make sure the Tory/Lab vote gets out to beat the Tory/Lab candidate. A lot of parties now try and do targeted leafleting eve of poll- it is probably more time consuming than doing every house, but the advantage is it doesn’t alert the opposition to an election going on. I’m sure a big Unite poster in Manchester City centre will be a help- not so sure about one in Burnley, Wigan, Oldham etc

  26. shevii – they’re all in today’s papers. Simply says vote to stop the far right. A digital billboard (on Lime St opposite Unite’s HQ) was revolving showing that as one of 4 pages, one of which had Robinson’s face on – which I agree is simply free publicity for him and bonkers. I agree that targeting would have been far better, but I assume Labour don’t have the numbers to help in these elections (compared with the GE when Momentum had lots of students). Maybe they have exams this week and/or have gone home.

    I happen to be in Manchester/Salford today for a course and the mood is a mixture of tense and sombre (being the anniversary of both the Arena terrorist attack and the murder of Lee Rigby from Middleton). As well as Robinson’s final rally tonight in Salford.

    I just went for a walk around the block and to get a coffee and a group of builders were all talking about the Ch5 docu re Blackpool’s Charlene Downes and the youngest said, “Tommy will get in tomorrow.” The oldest guy shook his head, but the other young guy said he was voting for him. But as I’ve said previously, those demographics don’t come as a surprise. I think a shock will only come about if people who are not C2, DE vote for him, or rather some who are employed (not self-employed) but are afraid to voice their support for fear of being disciplined. I’ll stick to my 4-5% prediction.

  27. I don’t understand your last point about voters being disciplined by their employers? How would the employers know? And why would they care?

    Being told to vote a certain way or you’ll lose your job is something that only happens in the bentest banana republics. (I think there was some evidence of this going on in the Venezuelan elections a few months ago, for example.)

  28. PT – Untrue. There are several cases where teachers and others (not just in the public sector but mainly) have been sacked for eg advocating voting BNP or signing a nomination paper or in one case simply being overheard on their mobile saying how they were going to vote and another had a car sticker. Indeed the leaked members’ list led to some trying to actively get them sacked. Thankfully most won at Employment Tribunal. [I can also inform you that as recently as a decade ago a priest in Liverpool was telling his staff and congregation to vote Labour, so it certainly goes on.]

    I agree that employers shouldn’t care, or rather should realise it is part of freedom of expression and conscience.

  29. Shevii – in case you missed it, the final NW poll had Others on 3%.

    I suspect it may simply have been done to wind/tie up the Left and/or media, but we have just all received emails with examples of leaflets in support of Robinson from: Orthodox Jews [that leaflet is now on twitter and will interest Barnaby]; a gay group in the North West; the Orange Order and a Christian group. All have P & P imprints, so look legitimate.

    If he has tapped into those he may have more support than I suspected. The Jewish one surprised me, although I recall the Salford Rabbi who was a Tory candidate in the locals and Euros went UKIP, so perhaps it’s some in Kersal? It even has a photo of TR at the wailing wall on the leaflet!

  30. @ Lancs

    Could only find a row of zeros again against his Robinson’s name on final Yougov- which poll are you talking about?

    Of course we suspect that are significant votes out there for him and it would probably be unfair to expect polling companies to either locate those voters or for those voters to give their VI even if they did.

    I think I’d go with 4% for Robinson but nothing would surprise me. To some extent we are feeding off each other on the anecdotals with little hard evidence other than to know he has been the most high profile candidate and had mostly had a campaign the way he wanted it to go, although Salford perhaps will flag up the ugly side rather than the victim as has been the case in other places.

  31. shevii – I assume it was a YouGov poll from the sheer size of the sample (over 1,000 in the NW). HNH tweeted it.

    I see #deniedmyvote is trending again. I don’t take any delight in council or royal mail omissions, but I do take delight in the fact that one of those complaining states he is an “immigration law and human rights expert” lawyer.

    If he was he’d know that EU Nationals have to register and sign a declaration.

  32. It was the final yougov that had zero. The one with 1,000 sample size for NW did have him on at 1% including 33% don’t know or not voting which would take him up to 1.5% (and include a turnout of 66%).

    Presumably on those EU citizens voting this was for new applications to vote in anything? The write ups have been rather unclear as to the nature of the problem. I get the feeling the problems have been administrative largely caused by late awareness these elections were going to happen and admin not in place to deal with a rush?

    Are we likely to get any serious gossip either today or Sunday from Midday or is their going to be a lockdown on twitter gossip coming fromt he count before 10pm? Well I’m sure it won’t stop Robinson supporters from tweeting whatever the rules are.

    Also I was sure I recall individual council totals from a previous election but looking back now I can only find figures for North west as a whole.

  33. Most if not all councils release their votes on their own websites.

  34. Guys – When will the votes actually be counted? Will they count tonight then hold onto the results until 10PM Sunday evening? Or do they not start counting until Sunday evening. Trying to work out how late I need to stay up on Sunday evening!

  35. Sunday evening. I think from 9pm (Because Italy closes then) through because the verification can be done before hand results will start coming in quickly afterwards.
    The results show’s are on air to 2/3am (Through I remember it not being that late in 2014 – bar Tower Hamlets).

  36. @ Surreymanc

    No idea!

    MEN suggesting counting starts at 10pm. Not sure if that is correct or not as someone on the main UKPR thread was saying his area (not NW) begins verification at midday and starts counting at 4pm.

    I don’t know if individual councils can be different.

    North West declared at 12.30am last time. North East declared at 10.20 last time so must have done the count first.

  37. I think this year counting may well starting a bit later – certainly broadcasters are not starting till 9pm rather than 6/7pm.

  38. Verification (face up as opposed to face down in postal vote verification) takes place from tonight – and yes different areas begin at different times as with the locals – but counting on Sunday.

    shevii – yes we have results by council area in the North West. The EU Nationals’ problem was that a two stage process was introduced and so registering is now longer sufficient – they also have to sign a declaration to vote here or their home nation.

  39. It’s very difficult to form an opinion on turnout based on twitter.

    Possibly people just not knowing what to compare it with (eg local v GE) or not seasoned observers or because they have an angle which for some reason they think will help their cause (for the short period until they get a real result).

    However the general consensus as far as I can tell seems to be that North West was better than usual and compares favourably to the mixed reports back from other regions.

    No-one seems to have differentiated between towns and cities but it feels like the Robinson factor may have had some effect on turnout- just not clear yet in what way.

    Be good for more informed information to judge.

  40. Shevii – I saw that Cllr Nick Small (Labour’s election guru in Lpool) said the 8th seat was between Lab v Green v LD V Robinson and he remembers the 2009 NW Euros when the BNP got it.

    I also saw that HNH’s Nick L was saying, ‘get 10 people out to vote cos Tommy will need an extra one then.’ That actually made me think how easy it is for TR to be elected, ie I spent my lunch opposite a poling station and whilst it’s deeply prejudicial I simply imagined how many looked like his voters and it was certainly 10%+ and I wasn’t even in a ‘rough area.’

  41. shevii – Turnout figures so far are lower than predicted:

    Bath 44%
    Copeland 31%
    Gibraltar 40%
    Harlow 30%
    Lincoln 32%
    Merthyr T 29%
    Middlesbrough 26%
    Plymouth 35%
    Southend 33%
    Wyre F 32%

    Roughly the same as 2009 ie 2014 had Locals the same day.

    Also in the couple of local ward by-elections today there were swings away from the main parties towards Inds:

    Resolven ward, Neath PT:

    Ind 699
    Lab 293
    PC 121
    Con 34
    LD 23

    Ind Gain from Lab (swing 20% Lab to Ind).

    In Tendring, 2 Inds easily beat Cons making the council makeup now: Cons 16, Ind 8, Lab 6, UKIP 5, Tendring First 3, Residents 3, LD 2, Foundation 1.

  42. What jumps out to me is that the remain-leaning areas are 10 points higher than their leave counterparts.

    Overall, turnout is very disappointing, though.

  43. More
    Verification in Central Park is complete. Wigan turnout 28.4% Leigh 28.5% Makerfield 26.8%. Thank you for voting.

  44. @ Lancs

    I just can’t see how Nick Small could possibly have narrowed it down to 4 at this stage. Looks like Wigan is the only council to verify overnight, so the only possible place where information could come from and even then very soft information.

    At the very least you would need one town and one city.

  45. The turnout across the uk seems to have risen the Lib Dems have a strong base already – while dropping in wwc areas. Prehaps Lib Dems will get 20%

  46. Wigan turnout was down 0.5% so broadly unchanged. Just getting the feeling remain area turnouts are better than leave areas but it’s not landslide changes and probably will depend on those splits in the remain vote and whether they have largely gone to Lib Dem.

    Suspect there is a good chance Labour will finish 3rd in vote share and that Yougov was right but Labour could still get 2nd on seats nationally.

  47. Other NW turnouts

    South Lakeland 52.9%
    Rochdale 30%
    Cheshire West & Chester 34.9%
    Carlise 33.85%
    Copeland 31.1%

  48. Look at that turnout in South Lakeland – Lib Dems did well there in 2014 and it has risen again.

  49. The BXP haven’t exactly been managing expectations so anything less than a huge win for them is going to look disappointing.

  50. @ Andrea

    You sure about South Lakeland as a spreadsheet I am looking at says 45.0%.

    Carlisle slightly down, Chester a bit up, Rochdale a bit down, Copeland down. South Lakeland would be about the same but if your figure is right then a good bit up from 44.6%

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