North West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Theresa Griffin (Labour) 594063 33.9% (+13.5%)
2. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 481932 27.5% (+11.7%)
3. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) 351985 20.1% (-5.5%)
4. Afzal Khan (Labour) (297032)
5. Louise Bours (UKIP) (240966)
6. Julie Ward (Labour) (198021)
7. Sajjad Karim (Conservative) (175993)
8. Steven Woolfe (UKIP) (160644)
. (Green) 123075 7% (-0.7%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 105487 6% (-8.3%)
. (BNP) 32826 1.9% (-6.1%)
. (Independence from Europe) 25999 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 19522 1.1% (-1.3%)
. (Pirate) 8597 0.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 5402 0.3% (-1.1%)
. (Socialist Equality) 5067 0.3% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Theresa Griffin (Labour) Educated at Lancaster University. Trade union organiser. Former Liverpool councillor. Contested North West European election 1999, 2004, 2009. MEP for North West since 2014
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Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
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Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
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Afzal Khan (Labour) Born 1960, Pakistan. Solicitor. Manchester councillor since 2000. MEP for North West since 2014. Awarded the CBE for services to race relations.
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Louise Bours (UKIP) Educated at Mountview Conservatoire for the Performing Arts. Singer and actor. Former Congleton councillor. Contested Cheshire Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014
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Julie Ward (Labour) Born 1957, Ripon. Educated at Newcastle University. Ran a social enterprise providing services for people with mental health problems. MEP for North West since 2014
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Sajjad Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for the North West since 2004.. Originally elected as a Liberal Democrat, he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
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Steven Woolfe (UKIP) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Barrister. Contested City and East 2012 London Assembly election, Greater Manchester Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Robert Atkins (Conservative) 423174 25.6% (+1.5%)
2. Arlene McCarthy (Labour) 336831 20.4% (-6.9%)
3. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 261740 15.8% (+3.7%)
4. Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) 235639 14.3% (-1.6%)
5. Saj Karim (Conservative) (211587)
6. Brian Simpson (Labour) (168416)
7. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) (141058)
8. Nick Griffin (BNP) 132194 8% (+1.6%)
. (Green) 127133 7.7% (+2.1%)
. (English Democrats) 40027 2.4% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 26224 1.6% (n/a)
. (Christian) 25999 1.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 23580 1.4% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 8783 0.5% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 6980 0.4% (n/a)
. Francis Apaloo (Independent) 3621 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Robert Atkins (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Educated at Highgate School. Haringey councillor 1968-1977. MP for Preston North 1979-1983, South Ribble from 1983-1997. Knighted in 1997. MEP for North West England since 1999. Minister of Transport 1989-1990, Minister of Sport 1990-1992, Minister of State at Northern Ireland Office 1992-1994, Minister of State, Environment 1994-1995.
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Arlene McCarthy (Labour) Born 1960, Belfast. Formerly a European liasion officer for Kirkless council. MEP since 1994.
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Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
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Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954, Lytham St Annes. Educated at Cheadle Hulme School and Cambridge University. MP for Littleborough and Saddleworth 1995-1997. Contested Oldham East and Saddleworth 1997. MEP for the North West since 1999. Former leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament, he stepped down in 2008 after being criticised over a reply to a constituent that accused her of racism. 
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Saj Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for North West England since 2004, orginally elected as a Liberal Democrat he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
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Brian Simpson (Labour) Born 1953, Leigh. Former PE teacher. Former Warrington councillor and Merseyside county councillor. MEP for Cheshire East 1989-1999, MEP for North-West 1999-2004 when he lost his seat. He returned to the European Parliament in 2006 following the resignation of Terry Wynn.
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Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
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Nick Griffin (BNP) Born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and edited BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has pursued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005, Barking 2010 for the BNP.


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Comments - 381 Responses on “Europe North West”
  1. Stephen Woolfe has resigned from UKIP

  2. It will be interesting to see if any others follow… with all the bad blood in the party it is possible more will leave. As far as the leadership is concerned all eyes will now be on whether or not Paul Nuttall runs this time… if he does I expect he’d win a landslide, if not then there is no clear favourite.

  3. To reply to LO’s comment on the Stockport thread (to avoid two threads on the same thing) even if Woolfe is still interested in joining the Tories I suspect that ship has sailed. The Tories aren’t going to admit somebody who has just been involved in a punch up. Other UKIP>Tory MEP defections must be possible though…

  4. Well he was the victim.

    Plus look at all of the weird and wonderful Cllrs & MEPs DC accepted.

    In fact DC seemed to have a penchant for Asian Cllr defectors who later ended up in Court (12 from memory).

  5. I totally sympathetise the man was punched not exactly gonna make you stay

  6. UKIP LEADERSHIP
    NUTTALL 1/8 (89% probability).

    As long as he doesn’t withdrew he seems to be certain to win.

    A very unusual thing in British politics – a leader of a major party with a genuine working class ENGLISH accent. His ascendancy is bad news for Labour in the north.

  7. It’s an accent that isn’t everyone’s cup of tea though.

  8. “It’s an accent that isn’t everyone’s cup of tea though”

    Having canvassed Bromley under William Hague, I can vouch for that.

    I wonder if a Scouse accent might actually damage a leader in Manchester, or Yorkshire. That said I think Deepthroat’s probably right.

  9. ‘His ascendancy is bad news for Labour in the north.’

    Very bad news

    He might have once been a Tory but he looks and sounds like a Labour politician and whilst that might harm his chances amongst the Chelsea-supporting Southern UKIPpers that hate Northerners full stop, I doubt there will be too many of them and even if they are they will be cancelled by WWC Brexiters, many of whom will be lost from the Labour Party for good

  10. The Local elections are now somewhat understandably being overlooked in terms of coverage, but these are the numbers of seats each Party is defending:

    Labour 1,535 Cllrs
    Cons 1,136
    Ind 687
    LD 484
    SNP 438
    PC 170
    UKIP 146
    Green 34
    Others incl Residents’ 51
    MK 4

  11. To go back to some old (like, six months old) comments about former professional footballer & Hillsborough survivor Paul Nuttall PhD, it now looks a little strange that the Labour Party was ever so scared of him.

    Of course, you could argue that he has done the only thing worse for them than taking Labour votes – he has released many of those votes back into the wild but they seem mainly to be voting for the Conservatives.

  12. He is very slippery. Atm, I think it’s because he’s nervous and lacks confidence. Like a deer caught in the headlights, not knowing which way to turn.

    Very chalk and cheese, him and Farage!

  13. As expected Labour have won both mayoralties in this area

  14. Paul Nuttall has apparently gone into hiding following yesterday’s local elections wipe-out for UKIP. Their Brexit spokesman Gerard Battern tells the BBC that even he doesn’t know where Nuttall is.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-39827141/where-is-ukips-paul-nuttall

  15. Interesting use of the word, ‘selected’ by Saj Karim MEP.

    He was, of course, the LibDem MEP who defected and as such Conservative members under DC were given no vote, as he was regarded by CCHQ as a “sitting Conservative MEP.”

    HH – I assume this was the case again re sitting MEP for selections in 2019?

  16. Ladbrokes’ Odds on EU Elections. Most seats:

    Brexit Party 4/7
    Labour 11/8
    Cons 50/1

    Even Tommy Robinson is only 3/1 to win a seat here.

  17. Well Tommy Robinson is running as an independent – No independent has ever won an EU seat and he is competing with UKIP who offer the same platform but with all the advantages of running a national campaign.

  18. Thoughts-

    1. A huge slap in the face for UKIP & Gerard Batten, who have invested so much in Tommy Robinson and lost so much as a result of their association, that he goes off on his own to stand against them. Though perhaps it might be doing them a favour.

    2. Tommy Robinson looks like a carpet bagger choosing the most likely region to get elected in…the North West is hardly anywhere near his home turf in Luton. Nigel Farage was at the same thing at the weekend waxing lyrical about Oldham in the USA when it’s perfectly obvious it’s the kind of place he’d never like to be seen dead in outside of a campaign.

    3. Can Robinson appear on the ballot paper as “Tommy Robinson” or must it be under his real name of Yaxley-Lennon? This is likely to further damage his slim chance of being elected. Also who is their right mind will vote for someone who claims never to have voted before and indeed that they still aren’t on the electoral register? Is that not illegal?

  19. BM11 – True, although Dr Ian Paisley was effectively an Ind. 7 now are but all defected.

    HH – Tbf that’s what Nick Griffin did in Oldham too.

    Today, I don’t expect Robinson to be elected – primarily because I still believe that even in low turnout elections, you need leaflets, targeting and knocking up to GOTV and even Nick Griffin had this organisation in Oldham, Manchester, Liverpool in 2009 to get elected. But also because we have 1 less in the NW than then, so 8.5% no longer gets you an MEP.

    However, I would add the caveat that the part of his video (
    http://www.votetommy.co.uk ) which is accurate, is that an element of the WWC will cross the road to shake his hand and/or get a photo with him. These tend to be ‘scally youths’ in tracksuits, tradesmen in vans and ex-armed forces.

    [Pete Whitehead goes into more detail re this phenomenon on Vote2012 ie the detail of the Survation poll shows that OAPs have gone to Farage’s Brexit Party, but UKIP and Others are in fact second to Labour amongst the two youngest age groups] There’s also anecdotal evidence of some spoilt postals in the locals having “Oh Tommy Tommy!” written across all boxes.

    In short, the only way I could foresee Tommy winning would be if these under the radar – usual non-voters – turnout in droves, in a sort of polar opposite of the way Islamic voters did for Galloway in Bradford. I find that very unlikely and some won’t even be registered, but his clips are being watched on YouTube and elsewhere in huge numbers and if anything the constant court cases appear to be making him more popular with this demographic, as it plays into the martyr narrative he seeks. He’ll gain the NW BNP vote from 2014 and maybe some of the No2EU vote, but unless something dramatic happens I’d suggest he’ll only manage 2%-4% of the NW vote, compared with perhaps 30% for The Brexit Party up here.

  20. ” Can Robinson appear on the ballot paper as “Tommy Robinson” or must it be under his real name of Yaxley-Lennon”

    he is Tommy Robison on the Statement of Persons Nominated

  21. He must be under the known name – when the results are announced it will be Stephen Yaxley-Lennon known as Tommy Robinson.

  22. * apologies: 2009 was in fact when the number of NW MEPs reduced by 1 and so 8%+ can still get you elected up here.

    For some context, here’s a reminder of how many voters chose to vote for ‘Others’ of the Right or anti-EU candidates in the NW previously:

    2004

    As well as the BNP’s 6.6%
    Liberal 4.6%
    EngDem 1.6%
    Countryside 0.5%
    ProLife 0.5%
    Ind 0.4%

    2009

    EngDem 2.4%
    SocLab 1.6%
    Christian 1.6%
    No2EU 1.4%
    Jury 0.5%
    Libertas 0.4%
    Ind 0.2%

    2014

    BNP 1.9%
    An Ind from EU 1.5%
    EngDem 1.1%
    No2EU 0.3%

    Steve Radford came closest of any almost Ind to be elected in 2004. Even Rev David Braid achieved 0.2%. So it seems voters in the NW are more inclined to vote for ‘Others’ than many other regions.

    HH – No, you don’t have to be on the Roll to stand. Merely to have resided in the area (council, UK or EU in this case) for the previous 12 months. After all, Richard Corbett had his Bruxelles address on the ballot both when he won in the NW and when he lost in Yorkshire.

  23. Tommy Robinson was ex BNP but quit it in 2005 saying they were too extreme.

  24. “He must be under the known name – when the results are announced it will be Stephen Yaxley-Lennon known as Tommy Robinson.”

    It must be the way North West (Manchester) published the SoPN.

    In London they are all listed with their real names with the “commonly knowns as”. Like for ex Timothy Charles Ayrton Tannock Commonly known as Charles Tannock. Etc.

    In North West SoPN there are no “commonly known as”. Some of the other NW candidates have their full names even the middle names they don’t normally use.

  25. On Tommy Robinson’s chances, it is notable that most of the far-right organisations that might have supported him (Britain First, for example) are now banned from most social media and hence have negligible reach. So much more difficult for him to run an “underground” campaign compared to a few years ago.

  26. “HH – No, you don’t have to be on the Roll to stand. Merely to have resided in the area (council, UK or EU in this case) for the previous 12 months. After all, Richard Corbett had his Bruxelles address on the ballot both when he won in the NW and when he lost in Yorkshire.”

    That’s not what I meant. He said he isn’t on the electoral register anywhere. I believe it is illegal for any eligible citizen not to put themselves on the electoral register. Certainly the registration forms seem to make that clear.

    “However, I would add the caveat that the part of his video (
    http://www.votetommy.co.uk ) which is accurate, is that an element of the WWC will cross the road to shake his hand and/or get a photo with him. These tend to be ‘scally youths’ in tracksuits, tradesmen in vans and ex-armed forces.”

    I don’t doubt that’s the case.

    Re Pete Whitehead – he is missed here. Is he still in UKIP? Though an admirer of Enoch Powell, I never had him down as a yobbish type, and I doubt he fits into what UKIP has become.

  27. “On Tommy Robinson’s chances, it is notable that most of the far-right organisations that might have supported him (Britain First, for example) are now banned from most social media and hence have negligible reach. So much more difficult for him to run an “underground” campaign compared to a few years ago.”

    I think that’s going to be about as effective as the forthcoming porn controls.

    Many ordinary people have been brainwashed by the propaganda of Robinson and you see it on their Facebook feeds regularly – sadly this includes my own younger brother who up until recently never seemed to have had a political thought in his life.

  28. BM11 – I thought that, but I was told by an ERO a couple of years ago that that’s no longer the case re names. So a candidate can effectively choose their name on the ballot.

    A slight clarification in that Tommy Robinson is standing with no description, as opposed to an Independent:

    http://www.northwestvotes.gov.uk/info/2/candidates

    PT – I thought that but apparently they are viewing online on platforms other than Facebook and Twitter.

    HH – Yes, I think so. A few ex Tory PPCs are also still in UKIP including the barrister who stood in Clacton.

  29. HH – No, I think it’s just a civil matter and the local council can fine you; but, I don’t think hardly any ever do. Unlike Council Tax where they pursue matters vigorously.

    Maybe he was in prison when the forms went out (we get them in August up here).

  30. HH – I just double checked and Pete W’s ‘colours’ have now changed to the Brexit Party on Vote2012. But he is still defensive of UKIP in his posts and his most recent post is similar to mine, although he ends by saying he wouldn’t rule out Robinson being elected.

  31. “I was told by an ERO a couple of years ago that that’s no longer the case re names. So a candidate can effectively choose their name on the ballot.”

    So Lord Buckethead etc no longer have to change their name by deep poll? I wonder why Yaxley-Lennon hasn’t done so.

    I recall Yaxley-Lennon also went to jail on mortgage fraud charges. How did he get a mortgage when he’s never been on the electoral register?

  32. Looking at the articles from when he was convicted I am not sure he was applying for a mortgage – it sounds like he was more of the middle man.

  33. I think “Tommy’s” last couple of days on the campaign trail make him an incidental candidate. It doesn’t really matter if it takes two to tango but the sight of flying fists from him and his entourage must surely put off many of those leaning towards his policies.

  34. I disagree. If you’re “leaning towards his policies” you’re probably okay with violent behaviour.

    While we’re on the subject, it may be unfashionable to say so, but I don’t think throwing milkshakes at the likes of Stephen Yaxley-Lannon is a good idea. The modern far right thrives off a narrative of victimhood. By assaulting them you are playing into their hands – they can use their underground propaganda channels to declare “they will stop at nothing to defeat us, including violence if we have to, we must fight fire with fire”, which then escalates far-right violence against others. So from a purely tactical perspective it’s not the best idea, and that’s before we get into the principle that human rights mean nothing unless they are extended to everyone, including those we despise.

  35. @ Polltroll

    I accept what you say about throwing milkshakes etc but I think what we have seen recently with the rise of a “respectable” Brexit party and the absolute collapse of UKIP suggests a lot on the far(ish) right can differentiate between the out and out thugs and those with a “radical” agenda when it stares them in the face.

    The events of the last couple of days is a “stare them in the face” moment and the body language was not that of someone like Prescott in a similar situation.

    Of course I don’t think this will change the attitude of his hardcore supporters but I think it is quite sufficient to cap his vote below 8%.

  36. @ Polltroll
    I agree with you regarding the throwing of Milhshakes etc. It just serves to fufil the victim narrative they are using.

  37. I agree that Tommy Robinson will not get enough votes to be elected. I imagine he’ll get around 4%.

  38. Even that is quite High for an independent candidate. The BNP fell to 2% last time so if Tommy Robinson gets 4% along with UKIP getting 6%+ and the Brexit Party getting above 30% the Tories will be below 15% in the North West – they only got 20% last time.
    It will be a real bun fight everywhere.

  39. It looked like the people who threw the milkshakes were being harassed by Robinson before they threw them, rather than it being an unprovoked act. Not that it makes it OK by any means.

  40. I think PT & BM11 may be right re Robinson getting 4%.

    I predicted 2-4% for him, but from what I’m hearing, he is getting a lot of support on the outer council estates he is visiting. However I’d be surprised if they turnout in those numbers.

    To those outside the NW, he is visiting: Birkenhead, Huyton, Bootle, Burnley, Blackpool, Oldham etc ie those places I mentioned previously that politicians just don’t visit as they are safe wards. Unsurprisingly all were Leave areas and in fact from memory in a few the BNP came 2nd in those boroughs in 2009 (Knowsley I certainly recall).

  41. Genuine question – how does it make a difference to Robinson’s vote if he visits a place? Unless he’s holding big rallies he can surely only meet a handful of people. And as the ultimate marmite person surely you either love him or hate him.

  42. There have been (large turnouts).

    500+ on the estate in Wigan last night. Likewise in Birkenhead (with just 30 non-local counter protestors there and none in Wigan). Plus queues of people wanting selfies (largely from the groups I mentioned of ex-forces, young scallies and tradesmen although he does seem to have a fanbase amongst women too judging from the footage).

    I think the very fact anyone is visiting those outer council estates is a part as to why he’s popular there; but, the rest must be due to social media and messaging groups.

  43. @ H. Hemmlig

    As Lancs Observer says possibly 500 local people attended the Wigan visit yesterday. Looking at the pictures I honestly don’t think these were bussed in supporters- definitely lots of working class local families who just had to step out of their house.

    There was an anti Robinson leafleting at the train station (not sure how many attended) but it in my humble opinion, much as per the milkshake argument, it is counter productive to be “outsiders” demonstrating on a council estate.

    How the message gets a wider audience- well Wigan Today’s website had an evening headline of “A message from Tommy Robinson to Wigan” and a direct link to his video he produced in the town centre before going to his rally (this was after shops had shut so no-one around). The pictures and live streaming of the event were all over FB and twitter.

    It’s really difficult to tell how many of these crowds are likely to vote for him and how many are just there because something is going on, or how many are registered to vote in the first place.

    On the main UKPR thread i was pointed to a yougov poll which did separate Robinson out with a line of zeros but I’m with Lancs Observer that I would not be surprised to see him get 5%- equally no real way of knowing and it is possible this does not transfer into votes. so equally I would not be surprised if it is 1% either. I do think though that his high profile may well help him mop up a lot of the far right vote with North West having a choice of him, UKIP, EDL and the more “socially acceptable” BXP.

    I don’t think it’s fair to say that politicians don’t visit these areas- most local partys pretty much run on their councillors and a few helpers at most and will be trying to help their residents and doing surgeries etc but simply do not have the profile to put on a hustings of that size which in itself is not sorting peoples problems. Now and again there might be a call out for a target ward for one night but most of the time it will simply be party volunteers doing their own ward as best they can.

  44. For those outside the North West (and perhaps many will be unaware here too), I should explain that he is holding daily events on those estates, which takes the form of a large truck, with a screen showing his campaign vid [it shows Blair, DC, Ken Clarke & MPs nodding off in the chamber] and then he speaks with a mic from a stage in the middle of a grassed area on that estate. The message is simply, “94% of THEM aren’t working class so vote for me to speak up for you” and it ends with, “send them a message they’ll never forget” [with a montage of Abbott, Clegg et al]

    There’s also organisers handing out election flyers and others taking email addresses etc and buckets collecting donations.

    I can understand why they are doing so, but Trinity Mirror limiting their coverage to, “he is not welcome here” with a quote from the MP, far-Left (ex-ANL, ex-TUSC) McFadden or the local priest is backfiring. All he has to do is turn up and footage shows he is self-evidently popular amongst many on those estates.

    If anything I’d say it’s better organised than Griffin’s campaign was here in 2009, but I revert to my stance that I still believe that people on the ground leafleting doors on the day are what’s needed and so barring – God forbid – a terrorist attack by polling day, I think he’ll miss out as Inds face an uphill struggle. But in the current climate I wouldn’t totally rule out a shock as Pete W alluded to elsewhere. If that did happen it’d only come about due to online voter registration and a campaign almost pleased that the media aren’t covering them.

    I’m reluctant to publicise his campaign, but for those who are interested simply search on ‘Danny Tommo’ on youtube etc [presumably his brother] and you will see the hundreds that turned out and stayed to listen to him in Birkenhead, Wigan etc.

    Polls tend not to cover Inds but Others are on 9% in the only two NW-specific ones so far. So half of that my be down to him.

  45. I agree with all of what Shevii has said.

    With the exception that MPs have literally not visited the estates (for 25 years in a couple of cases). I realise some Cllrs do – although in the EU Ref those estates were ignored as they were busy getting out the vote in the suburbs and students in city centres across the North West.

    From memory, Straw’s son conceded afterwards that that may have been an error – in that they were shocked by the level of the Leave % in those estates.

  46. Thanks both – really informative replies

  47. We received the first few EU election communications today from the postman: Labour, Brexit, LibDem & Vote Tommy.

    Or rather Labour & Vote Tommy’s were. The Brexit Party’s was addressed to myself and the LibDem’s to my wife.

    Labour’s had a photo of Corbyn on the front glossy. However, inside was feint and just not very readable. The LibDem’s & Brexit Party’s were the clearest of their respective positions [with the Brexit Party’s arrow > logo being the simplest ie pointing to where you place your cross].

    Robinson’s was probably the best visually.

  48. I’ve only had (two) Labour and (one) Far/Farish right at our house- BXP, UKIP, Tommy. Similar to you it’s all “targeted” where they have presumably saved costs by sending to one member of the household only. Labour was the only one who seemed to target the timing for the postal votes and their first leaflet was delivered over a week ago.

    “Tommy” was A5 and actually tucked inside the Labour A4 folded one- I was trying to work out if there was any clever game plan either from the sorting office or postie or whoever but I couldn’t work out any possible benefit to doing so for either Labour or Robinson unless it all goes straight in the blue bin.

    Agree that Robinson’s was the “best” although UKIP and BXP followed a similar 5 second attention span (“betrayal”).

    Latest national Yougov poll of 7,000 (but not split between regions) showed 2 votes for Robinson (defectors from UKIP Westimster VI). I remain “nervous” about Robinson but would assume polling would pick something up were he to end up at 5% plus. I still have this feeling that a polling company might not spot the Robinson factor in their samples as we may well be dealing with a group that never normally votes however you would expect to see something beyond 2 if he were heading for 5% plus.

    I also wanted to see what North West voting intention looked rather than national polling. National polling shows Labour dropping and remain parties picking up but I think I have got a broad understanding of D’Hondt that if BXP is lower in North West and Labour also goes lower then this means an 8th candidate may have more of a chance on a lower vote share than if Lab and BXP polled above 30% each?

    Are the Conservatives actually sending any leaflets out or are their volunteers on strike? Certainly missed the postal vote group if they are just late.

  49. “The Brexit Party’s was addressed to myself and the LibDem’s to my wife.”

    Seems like a lot of demographic targeting going on. I also received leaflets from Brexit Party and UKIP which my wife didn’t get.

  50. Not sure it would be targeted in a sophisticated way. May simply be taking the first name on the electoral register- in our case that is my stepson who has received all of the named ones apart from the extra Labour one that went via a different method and was to my wife and I think in an envelope.

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