North West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Theresa Griffin (Labour) 594063 33.9% (+13.5%)
2. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 481932 27.5% (+11.7%)
3. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) 351985 20.1% (-5.5%)
4. Afzal Khan (Labour) (297032)
5. Louise Bours (UKIP) (240966)
6. Julie Ward (Labour) (198021)
7. Sajjad Karim (Conservative) (175993)
8. Steven Woolfe (UKIP) (160644)
. (Green) 123075 7% (-0.7%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 105487 6% (-8.3%)
. (BNP) 32826 1.9% (-6.1%)
. (Independence from Europe) 25999 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 19522 1.1% (-1.3%)
. (Pirate) 8597 0.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 5402 0.3% (-1.1%)
. (Socialist Equality) 5067 0.3% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Theresa Griffin (Labour) Educated at Lancaster University. Trade union organiser. Former Liverpool councillor. Contested North West European election 1999, 2004, 2009. MEP for North West since 2014
portrait
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
portrait
Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
portrait
Afzal Khan (Labour) Born 1960, Pakistan. Solicitor. Manchester councillor since 2000. MEP for North West since 2014. Awarded the CBE for services to race relations.
portrait
Louise Bours (UKIP) Educated at Mountview Conservatoire for the Performing Arts. Singer and actor. Former Congleton councillor. Contested Cheshire Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014
portrait
Julie Ward (Labour) Born 1957, Ripon. Educated at Newcastle University. Ran a social enterprise providing services for people with mental health problems. MEP for North West since 2014
portrait
Sajjad Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for the North West since 2004.. Originally elected as a Liberal Democrat, he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
portrait
Steven Woolfe (UKIP) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Barrister. Contested City and East 2012 London Assembly election, Greater Manchester Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Robert Atkins (Conservative) 423174 25.6% (+1.5%)
2. Arlene McCarthy (Labour) 336831 20.4% (-6.9%)
3. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 261740 15.8% (+3.7%)
4. Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) 235639 14.3% (-1.6%)
5. Saj Karim (Conservative) (211587)
6. Brian Simpson (Labour) (168416)
7. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) (141058)
8. Nick Griffin (BNP) 132194 8% (+1.6%)
. (Green) 127133 7.7% (+2.1%)
. (English Democrats) 40027 2.4% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 26224 1.6% (n/a)
. (Christian) 25999 1.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 23580 1.4% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 8783 0.5% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 6980 0.4% (n/a)
. Francis Apaloo (Independent) 3621 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Robert Atkins (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Educated at Highgate School. Haringey councillor 1968-1977. MP for Preston North 1979-1983, South Ribble from 1983-1997. Knighted in 1997. MEP for North West England since 1999. Minister of Transport 1989-1990, Minister of Sport 1990-1992, Minister of State at Northern Ireland Office 1992-1994, Minister of State, Environment 1994-1995.
portrait
Arlene McCarthy (Labour) Born 1960, Belfast. Formerly a European liasion officer for Kirkless council. MEP since 1994.
portrait
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
portrait
Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954, Lytham St Annes. Educated at Cheadle Hulme School and Cambridge University. MP for Littleborough and Saddleworth 1995-1997. Contested Oldham East and Saddleworth 1997. MEP for the North West since 1999. Former leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament, he stepped down in 2008 after being criticised over a reply to a constituent that accused her of racism. 
portrait
Saj Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for North West England since 2004, orginally elected as a Liberal Democrat he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
portrait
Brian Simpson (Labour) Born 1953, Leigh. Former PE teacher. Former Warrington councillor and Merseyside county councillor. MEP for Cheshire East 1989-1999, MEP for North-West 1999-2004 when he lost his seat. He returned to the European Parliament in 2006 following the resignation of Terry Wynn.
portrait
Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
portrait
Nick Griffin (BNP) Born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and edited BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has pursued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005, Barking 2010 for the BNP.


.

Comments - 314 Responses on “Europe North West”
  1. Actually Wirral West’s numerical Lab majority increases slightly with this proposal (not sure about %) thus making this proposal probably better for Lab than your one and its more sensible too.

  2. Yes, Bebington is an out and out safe ward for Labour these days and Clatterbridge is now very precarious for the Conservatives.

  3. Peppermintta
    I did specify at the beginning of the post that I anticipated there would be disagreements re the Wirral and I get that but you misunderstand my reasoning. It wasn’t due to the differences between Eastham and Ellesmere Port (you’re right their pretty similar) rather if there HAS to be a cross authority seat between the Wirral and Cheshire (and there does) I wold prefer it to be on the Western side of the peninsula were the divide is very blurred (anecdotal evidence alert my best friends GF lives in Neston but she always says she lives on the Wirral).

    The Wirral Deeside seat by itself is actually a very sensible seat, the problem is it necessitates the creation of another cross authority seat which the BC’s rules say should be avoided.

    Any other amalgamation forces together Eastham and Ellesmere Port which breaks my rule on trying to cross on the Western side of the peninsula thus leaving Ellesmere Port and Heswall as the only option that fulfils both criteria.

    This is however just how I feel about it and I don’t think for a minute the BC will actually propose this which is why I totally understand if you disagree and why I added the disclaimer at the beginning.

  4. @rivers10. Also whatever gerrymander you’ve done in Warrington to create two Labour seats is certain not to happen. The commission will just transfer Bewsey and Whitecross from South to North, that one is fairly cut and dried. Obviously the notional Tory majority will more than double to over 5,500. I assume this map isn’t an attempt at a neutral one but a Labour gerrymander?

  5. Well either that or Latchford East which is slightly less damaging for Labour, Tory majority of just under 5,000.

  6. Rivers10 – interesting work, thanks.

    My only thoughts would be:

    Field may out last Eagle the way things are going.

    Rotherham wouldn’t get Wavertree. Plus he’s more likely to become Mayor than Berger. Indeed he’s more likely than Joe too on current odds.

    Bootle & Liverpool North is a horrible name, although not a crazy seat.

    Marie Rimmer may be forced to stand down if convicted.

    Nigel Evans might retire in 2020 so AJS should be ok.

    Jake Berry however will probably go or lose either way, after his Tweets of late. He’s a rare thing in being a posh Wet in a Tory Party that seems to be promoting the grammar school cohort again. Plus he backed the wrong horse twice for the Leadership (GO then BJ).

    Re B & B, Stringer could retire and Lewis could become Mayor so a seat for someone on the move perhaps?

    I agree re Kaufman. If he lasts ’til May 2020, I’ll be amazed.

  7. Peppermintea – I agree with a lot of what you’ve said, but Neston is already with EP. Heswall isn’t any more posh or rural than Neston, so it’s not such a strange proposal on Rivers10’s part.

    Indeed, almost every seat has a poor and a ‘posh’ ward within it – some have towns such as Crewe & Nantwich, EP & Neston and so on.

    This is why I never understood the bleating of Crosby Tories (it was just the PPC & a Cllr who turned up) to the Boundary Commission over Vauxhall joining them. I realise they wouldn’t like it electorally, but as an Irish RC ward it has far more in common with Bootle & Crosby than it does with Mossley Hill or Everton.

    As I said, almost all seats have a posh/wealthy ward and a poor/deprived ward within them (Speke v Woolton in G&H being another example from the neighbouring seat).

  8. Pepperminttea
    Re Warrington even though I hate it the removal of Bewsey was what I did initially (hated not just for partisan reasons but also because it actually dissects the seat which I think is silly) but I went ahead with it anyway initially.

    However I then found myself in nightmare scenario’s dealing with the rest of Cheshire. The problem was the leftover bits of Runcorn that where in the old Weaver Vale seat, as I could see it I had two options.

    1) Do what I did and add it to Warrington South where they were located prior to 1997, this created a wholly urban seat, straddling the Manchester ship canal with good transport links to the constituent parts. It necessitated the removal of Lymm and Grappenhall from Warrington South to get within quota but I know the area well and peeps there think of themselves as separate from Warrington anyway so adding them to the Northwich seat would probably be locally preferred.

    2) Attach them onto the Northwich seat, as well as this forcing the above mentioned irritation on the split Warrington South seat this new Northwich seat is just a plain monstrosity even worse than the old Weaver Vale. A real mish mash of farmland, council estates, a WWC industrial town and affluent Cheshire villages. Also as for partisan concerns this isn’t necessarily any better for the Tories, this new Northwich seat would be a marginal (Tory notional majority of 12%) so much safer than Weaver Vale but vastly less safe than Tatton. I suppose its up to you to say what’s preferable from a Tories perspective, two marginals or a safe Tory seat and a safe(ish) Lab seat.

    Ultimately I went with “Warrington SW” and “Northwich and Lymm” because I thought both seats were nicer than the alternatives.

  9. Lancs
    Agree with all of that all I’d add is

    Rotherham is definitely my favourite to win Mersey mayor but regardless even he doesn’t it obviously won’t be the last we hear from him, he has options across Liverpool for a new seat when Walton gets abolished as looks likely.

    Re Bootle and Liverpool North I agree a horrible name but its an exact replica of one of the BC’s proposals last time and that’s what they called it so I just stuck with it. I thought Bootle and Fazakerly was a bit of a mouthful, Bootle and Aintree maybe?

    I thought the whole Rimmer case had kinda blown over?

  10. The Trial is ongoing at the moment in fact (it resumed last week, I think).

    A conviction seems likely from what I’ve heard.

    You don’t HAVE to resign unless jailed for over a year from memory, but she’d clearly be under pressure to resign asap or retire in 2020 or be deselected.

    Her age was always going to be against her in 2020 too.

  11. Lancs
    “Her age was always going to be against her in 2020 too”

    She only became the MP last year!!! One does wonder why they pick relatively elderly people to be MP’s

    Frankly the whole case is just silly, I seem to recall the victim didn’t even want to press charges but the police insisted.

  12. Pepperminntea
    Quick note I did my calculations wrong when I gave the notional Tory majority for the alternate Northwich seat, I said it was 12% its actually half that at 6%

  13. Where are your proposals Tory? You said you’d post them and I’m genuinely curious.

  14. Sorry haven’t had time- will do so later this week.

  15. Maxim
    Cheshire has to lose a seat and the two smallest seats by far are Weaver Vale and Tatton so its pretty much guarantied one of the two will get the chop.

    As is my boundaries (Northwich and Lymm) actually save Gideon leaving a safe seat that he has greatest claim to. Other amalgamations though might not be so generous.

  16. Here’s my attempt at a north west plan. I have tried to cross borough lines as little as possible. Happy to answer any specifics on boundaries :p.

    1)Ellesmere Port and Neston
    2)City of Chester (notionally Tory by a couple of hundred due to ward boundary changes)
    3)Warrington North
    4)Warrington South (Tory majority increases)
    5)Winsford and Knutsford
    6)Crewe and Nantwich (moves west slightly becomes a bit more Tory)
    7)Congleton
    8)Weaver and Eddisbury (drops Northwich and Halton Lea. Goes South much more Tory than current Weaver Vale)
    9)Macclesfield
    10)Wilmslow and Cheadle South
    11)Halton
    12)Liverpool Calderstones (sounds cool)
    13)Liverpool Riverside
    14)Liverpool Newsham
    15)Liverpool Walton
    16)Wallasey
    17)Birkenhead
    18)Wirral South West (a bit better for Labour than current Wirral West)
    19)Knowsley
    20)Bootle and Crosby
    21)Southport
    22)Maghull and Ormskirk
    23)Halewood and Whiston
    24)St Helens
    25)Wigan
    26)Makerfield
    27)Leigh
    28)Bolton West (Tory extremely narrowly. Drops Atherton gains Hulton and Harper Green)
    29)Bolton South East
    30)Bolton North East and Tottington (Tory by ~5,500. Crompton, Astley Bridge, Bromley Cross, Bradshaw, Tottington, Elton, North Manor, Ramsbottom)
    31)Bury and Radcliffe
    32)Heywood, Middleton and Prestwich
    33)Rochdale
    34)Littleborough and Saddleworth (Lab by 1,500)
    35)Oldham
    36)Manchester Blackley
    37)Ashton and Stalybridge
    38)Denton and Failsworth
    39)Marple and Hyde (Tories ahead of Lab by a bit over 3,000)
    40)Hazel Grove and Cheadle North
    41)stockport
    42)Manchester Central
    43)Manchester Fallowfield
    44)Stretford and Chorlton
    45)Manchester Wythenshawe
    46)Urmston and Eccles
    47)Altrincham
    48)Salford
    49)Worsley and Tyldesley
    50)skelmersdale and Chorley
    51)Leyland (Lab by under 1,000)
    52)South Ribble (much more Tory due to losing Leyland and gaining all of Ribble Valley in the SR council area)
    53)Rossendale and Darwen (tory majority reduced a little bit)
    54)Blackburn
    55)Hyndburn (or Accrington)
    56)Burnley and Nelson
    57)Colne and Clitheroe
    58)Preston
    59)Wyre and Lunesdale
    60)Fylde
    61)Blackpool South
    62)Blackpool North and Cleveleys (loses 4 Blackpool wards bicks up Poulton-le-Fylde and environs. Essentially safe Tory with a majority of ~11,000)
    63)Lancaster and Morecambe (Smith’s majority rises to over 2,000 but this is not as much as I’d thought it would…)
    64)Westmorland and Lonsdale
    65)Barrow and Furness (notionally Tory)
    66)West Cumbria
    67)Carlisle (whole council area)
    68)Penrith and Solway

  17. @Maxim not really barring some awful gerrymander. But even if it was carved up Farron may still win a seat given his personal popularity in those parts. The Tories best change of winning back Westmorland is just play the waiting game like they did with Yeovil, Farron is untouchable but it may be a different matter entirely when he retires.

  18. Maxim
    Unlikely re Farron’s seat, it makes up the bulk of a local authority so to carve it up the neighbouring seats would all have to start dipping into it in weird ways and given how vast a seat it is geographically it just creates weird seats. Ultimately the only ways for Farrons seat to go are

    1) West into the rest of South Lakeland taking in the town of Ulverston where I imagine the significant Lab support would strategically back Farron.

    Or

    2) North into Southern Eden (this is what I did) including the town of Appleby in Westmorland, the Lib Dems have some solid support there so it doesn’t do him any harm.

  19. Pepperminntea
    My primary criticism would be the extent of the changes, as you can see with my boundaries the vast majority of my seats received only modest changes and quite a few didn’t change at all, the BC’s rules state that changes should be the least disruptive, now I actually prefer some of your more radical boundaries but I feel it best if we stick to the BC’s rules as best as possible cos in some instances I feel that more radical changes have been prioritised for less than innocent reasons which I will probably get onto.

    But anywho taking the boundaries as they are my observations (I’ll probably break this up into a couple of posts)

    Firstly (given its my own patch) I have to say there are quite a few issues with the Merseyside/West Lancashire area.

    I’m assuming you’ve expanded Southport North Eastwards into North Meols and the likes? Like you proposed a while back. As I told you then I actually prefer that solution to splitting up Formby but the BC are very clear on cross county seats, they simply wouldn’t allow it and when you consider the knock effects it has it’s actually probably for the best. I mean Skelmersdale and Chorley? Err that’s a bit of a forced pairing…

    I’m also genuinely curious as to what wards you’ve used to make a seat out of Halewood and Whiston? I’d have thought that would be far too small?

  20. Pep – I like Liverpool Calderstones too.

    It’s an area (L18) as well as the park so it works.

    On that basis it’d have to be Liverpool Newsham Park (if anything), although it isn’t a cohesive area – it more separates 3 distinct eras, so I doubt anyone would want that name.

    Lpool Croxteth Park could be a solution to the Kirkby & Croxteth idea from the BCP 2 before last.

    Good to see you’ve restored Radcliffe to being named in seat. Although as it’s already in Bury MBC, maybe Bury with Radcliffe might be the preferred name. Although there are a few oddities such as Barrow where seat names differ from the council/area names.

    Equally good to see you naming Clitheroe, Marple, Urmston, Leyland etc rather than the silly South Ribble, Ribble Valley, Hazel G.

    The only potential; ‘clanger’ that stands out to me is Skem & Chorley – and not just due to the Scouse & Lancastrian accents!

  21. Peppeminttea
    Moving to North Lancashire what are the exact wards for your Blackpool North seat and what have you done with Fleetwood?

  22. Pepperminntea
    Finally for the time being we have Bolton, I have some serious issues here, I’m not accusing you of gerrymandering but is frankly incredibly obvious you’ve drawn those boundaries with the Tories best interests at heart.

    Removing Atherton from Bolton NW is frankly pointless, yes it does kinda stick out what with being in a speerate authority but its not desperate to be located elsewhere, the only justification is that it prevents solely adding the Tory leaning ward of Hulton cos doing so goes over quota, but then having removed Atherton and added Hulton you have to add another ward and you have three options either Harper Green (Safe Lab) Rumworth (Monolithically Lab) or Halliwell (Monolithically Lab) and despite it being the most poorly connected you chose Harper Green the one ward that keeps the seat notionally Tory in spite of the fact that you already removed Halliwell from your Bolton NE, so your just switching wards around unnecessarily?

    Then moving onto your Bolton NE seat you pair it with most of the Tory voting areas of Bury N despite the horrible connections between the two areas. You also removed most the areas of Labour strength in the seat (Halliwell and Tonge) placing them in the already safe Bolton SE, Labs one saving grace being the Crompton ward which you left but lets be real we both know you tried to switch it for the more Tory friendly Breightmet but couldn’t cos it falls just short of quota.

    This leaving us with basically all of the areas of Lab strength in Bolton being rammed into one seat which wriggles through the centre of Bolton…come on dude its obvious what happened here…as soon as you start removing wards and replacing them with others red flags immediately go up.

    Even if we take some of the parameters you set (which I dispute) like Bolton NW HAS to lose the Atherton ward and the cross authority seat HAS to be with Bury there are more sensible and less disruptive proposals requiring less ward transfers like the following (note I prefer my boundaries over these but this is just to demonstrate how odd your Bolton boundaries are)

    Bolton NW loses Atherton and picks up Hulton and Rumworth

    Bolton NE picks up Great Lever

    The remaining Bolton wards are paired with the following from Bury, Radcliffe North, West and East, Pilkington Park and Church thus creating a new Farnworth and Radcliffe seat.

  23. @LancsObserver South Ribble still does exist but it no longer contains Leyland (the Leyland seat picks up the more rural north and east of the current Chorley) it instead picks up Bamber Bridge and all the South Ribble council area currently in Ribble Valley. If you wanted to rename it it would be called Penwortham and Bamber Bridge or something like that. Hazel Grove does keep a seat as well paired with North Cheadle (South Cheadle and Bramhall being in Wilmslow).

    @rivers10
    No I didn’t add North Meols to Southport that area’s still in South Ribble. I would have preferred to do something like that but It would require too much zigzagging across county lines which I was trying to keep to a minimum. After I had drawn Bootle and Crosby I tried create Maghull and Formby but it was too small and would have needed a chunk of Southport proper to be viable. So I had to pair Maghull with Ormskirk which in turn mandates Skelmersdale and Chorley (avoiding going into Greater Manchester).

    Halewood and Whiston –
    Halewood (N,S,W),Roby, St Gabriels, Whiston (N,S) (from Knowsley)
    Rainhill, Bold, Thatto Heath, Sutton (from St Helens)

    The issue I had in Lancashire was trying to get the Wyre and Lunesdale seat down to just crossing into three local authorities instead of four (which I thought was excessive). So I put Preston Rural N, Preston Rural E, Ingol into Fylde along with Lea which is already there. This meant I had to add some ‘Wyre’ wards to replace them and bring the seat up to quota. I tried adding Poulton via the Stanah ward but the seat rockets way over quota. Thus I put Fleetwood in Wyre and Lunesdale (which worked) and Poulton in Blackpool N and Cleveleys along with Hambleton and Great Eccleston wards as well as Singleton and Elswick wards from Fyde (I could have added just the Wyre ward of Brock with Caterall instead but it looks much more of a mess). I didn’t realise the numerical Tory majority would effectively triple (I had to check several times).

  24. Well the reason why Atherton has been moved out is because by the time I got to Salford borough I was running a ward short so I had to transfer a ward round thus I put Atherton in Worsley and Tydlesley and worked out where (I can’t remember where it was now) was at the larger end of the quota but could still lose a ward and moved wards accordingly.

    As for Bolton what I was trying to do was create an urban seat centred on the core of Bolton simply called ‘Bolton’ (which I think is sensible actually) thus allowing me to get rid of the Bolton name in the other two seats renaming West, Westhoughton and Horwich (which is what it ‘should’ be called anyway seen as contains very little of Bolton Proper). As you say it didn’t go as planned because I couldn’t switch Brightmet and Crompton :P. My own personal rule is if you are going to create compass point seats they have to cover all points of the compass i.e Bolton North East without either a Bolton South West or both a Bolton West and a Bolton South East.

  25. @rivers10 you have given me an idea though

    Westhoughton and Horwich: Current Bolton West +Hulton, Astley Bridge -Atherton
    Farnworth and Radcliffe: Harper Green, Little Lever and Darcy Lever, Farnworth Kearsley, Radcliffe (N,E,W), Pilkington Park, Besses.
    Bolton: rest of Bolton borough
    Bury:rest of Bury borough except Prestwich

    That better?

  26. Pepp – re Maghull & Formby: I suppose you could recreate something akin to the old Ormskirk seat in a way, although as well as Rainford from St H, you might have to add a ward from N Lpool too which would be a bit odd, although it is what Kilroy represented back then.

    Ah I thought you’d created a Leyland seat, not just in name. But I realise it may not be possible on the numbers/quota.

  27. Well I did create a Leyland its just linked to Euxton and Clayton-le-Woods (and some other rural areas) as opposed to Penwortham.

  28. Pepperminntea
    Re Merseyside I see what’s you’ve done, I can’t say I’m a huge fan of the Chorley and Skelmersdale seat but changing it would likely mess up your whole plan which is what I’m about to do in North Lancashire anyway so I’ll leave it be XD

    Re North Lancashire I get what you’ve done but you’ve made it unnecessarily complicated as far as I an tell. Start from our Blackpool South seats because I think they’re exactly the same.

    Then create a Blackpool North and Fleetwood that contains all of the remaining Blackpool wards, then stretch up to Fleetwood taking in Jubilee, Victoria, Cleveley’s Park, Pheasants Wood, Marsh Mill, Stanah, Carleton, Tithebarn, Park, Mount, Rossall, Warren and Pharos. This is a very natural urban seat (Fleetwood is a dormitory for Blackpool) avoiding sprawling into the countryside and actually puts Fleetwood in a seat with a road connection something I recall you mentioning was a gripe of yours re it being paired with Lancaster.

    Fylde then takes in all of the Fylde authority, Lea from Preston and the remaining Poulton wards of Hardhorn and Breck.

    Our Morecambe and Lancaster seats are I believe the same so then Wyre and Lunesdale can be kept in three authorities by taking in all that remains of Lancaster and Wyre and the Northernmost Preston wards (both rural wards, Ingol, Greyfriars, Sharoe Green and Garrison.

    This undoubtedly has knock in effects fro the rest of your plan since I assume your Wyre and Lunesdale seat contained part of Ribble Valley? But it nicely compartmentalises North Lancashire.

    Also there aint no dodging around the fact my arrangement is better for Lab in that the Blackpool North seat remains a Tory marginal with a notional majority of 7% But I can honestly say that wasn’t my intention here, I just drew the seats which seemed natural. I honestly though my Blackpool N would be better for the Tories, I didn’t think Fleetwood would make up for the loss of some Lab voting wards in Blackpool and the addition of some Tory wards around Poulton but hey ho it did.

  29. Pepperminttea
    Re Bolton the new boundaries don’t work, the Horwich seat is above quota.

    I see your point but here are some flaws in the logic. For one I get the likes ff Horwich being called “Bolton” is odd when its really a separate town but Astley Bridge, Bromley Cross and the likes are really just Bolton’s Northern suburbs very much a part of the city. As is Harper Green (except for the south obviously) so really the Bolton West seat HAS to expand into the city proper so you might as well just embrace the Bolton name.

    As far as I can see the only workable and sensible solutions involve making Bolton West notionally Lab and keep Bolton NE as pretty reliably Lab, its just unavoidable

  30. Maxim
    Agree and it probably will, I think we’re all in agreement it will instead be part of a “Morecambe and Lancaster” seat with a second huge rural “Wyre and Lunesdale” curving around it.

  31. @rivers10 no my Wyre and Lunesdale takes in large chunks of Ribble Valley so the Preston wards need to be taken out. The only way to do this is to have Fleetwood in Wyre and Lunesdale.

    Yeah I just realised it is over quota XD. You can very easily keep Bolton west Con though just by adding Hulton to the current seat. With Bolton or anywhere else for that matter I oppose the creation of seats that don’t cover the compass so a Bolton North East and a Bolton West are not acceptable without a Bolton South East likewise you can’t have a Bury North with no Bury South.

  32. Pepps (Im calling you that from now on my computer keeps auto correcting your name and its effing annoying XD)

    Just adding Hulton sends it over quota too, really the cons are being totally shafted by the electoral figures in Bolton.

  33. Pepps
    Re North Lancashire that’s my point there is no need to dip into Ribble Valley, it can be totally avoided with my above arrangement. This then also avoids the Blackpool N seat sprawling into the countryside and it allows Fleetwood to be in a seat it has a road connection with (something you yourself stated in the past was stupid re it being paired with Lancaster)

    I know pointing this out means you probably have to change a lot of your plan but the North Lancashire boundaries are actually fairly easy with the most obvious solutions oftentimes being the only workable ones.

  34. Maxim
    Not just that but the weird shapes of the wards and the annoying fact that you can’t pair the wards that most resemble rural Buckinghamshire (Olney and both Newport Pagnell wards) with Buckinghamshire itself!!!

    In the end I re-created the old MK NW and MK SE and paired the two Bletchley wards and Tattenhoe with Buckinghamshire.

  35. Well it can’t as I’ve got a ton of Ribble Valley wards left over in the North.

  36. Pepps
    As I said it would probably require a complete re jig of your entire plan, obviously its your plan so do whatever you want with it, I’m just sharing and comparing.

    Its happened to me before where I had a whole plan then realised afterwards that one seat didn’t have ideal boundaries and changing it essentially meant starting over. Since then I’ve always tried to compartmentalise areas entitled to a whole number of seats and then work around them creating cross authority seats between the different “compartments” when and where I need to knowing it won’t effect the vast majority of my plan if something goes AWOL. I believe that’s how the BC go about it too.

  37. Maxim
    Messing around with the notionals for my Milton Keynes boundaries and its actually probably Labs best bet (without resorting to blatant gerrymandering) for winning a Milton Keynes seat (I’d kinda just assumed they were both write offs these days)

    The MK NW seat becomes well out of reach ballooning to a majority just shy of 30% but MK SW see’s its majority plummet falling to just 4% down from 14% in the old MK South. There is hope for the MK Lab party after all.

  38. Also I haven’t really scrutinised your plan either haha.

    A few quick observations:

    -Why have you split Blackburn you can just add Fernhurst to it?
    -You probably need to reduce the crossings between Greater Manchester and Cheshire East down to one the commission will want to keep county hopping to a minimum.
    -Warrington needs fixing badly.
    -I don’t know if it requires a name change but having a Bury North without a Bury South doesn’t make a whole lot of sense :/ (same with Bolton)
    -How have you managed to do Heywood and Radcliffe when the current Bury North needs another ward? I can’t see any ‘nice’ options though..

  39. As promised here are my proposals. But before I do I repeat my disclaimers:

    1. I tend to support the Conservatives and I am happy to acknowledge that my proposals reflect that. Provided the proposals do not involve US Congress-style seats I don’t see what the big issue is about that- supporters of a given party tend to come up with proposals or counter-proposals that (subtly) defend that party’s interests! What I object to is people who do so whilst simultaneously claiming to be objective and accusing others of gerrymandering.

    2. I do not accept the Boundary Commission’s hostility towards radical change and/or having multi-borough seats. I am more interested in keeping towns within seats and where possible, ensuring community ties are respected.

    3. I was also keen (largely out of interest) to see if I could recreate some pre-1983 seats where it was appropriate to do so.

    As such I am quite happy to admit the subjectivity behind the exercise and yet I still think I have managed to create a decent set of seats

  40. COUNTY PALATINE OF CHESTER

    1. Wallasey, 76,052: current seat plus Upton from Wirral West. Ultra-safe Lab

    2. Birkenhead, 72,672: current seat plus Bebington from Wirral South.. No need to split Birkenhead whatsoever.

    3. Wirral, 73,809: current Wirral West less Upton; the Heswall and Clatterbridge wards from Wirral South and Neston, Parkgate, and Willaston wards from Ellesmere Port & Neston. Essentially a recreation 74-83 Wirral. Semi-safe Con (for now).

    4. Ellesmere Port, 71,590: current EP&N seat less the wards hived off into the Wirral seat and Little Neston & Burton, which joins Chester; plus Bromborough and Eastham from Wirral South. Not dissimilar to the 1974-1983 ‘Bebington & Ellesmere Port’ seat. Safe Lab

    5. Chester 73,939: current Chester seat less Chester Villages; Little Neston & Burton from Ellesmere Port & Neston. Still tight but a tad better for Labour.

    6. Eddisbury, 76,812: current Eddisbury less Audlem; takes on Chester Villages from Chester; Frodsham, Helsby, and Kingsley from Weaver Vale. Safe Con.

    7. Northwich, 75,834: current Weaver Vale, less Halton Lea and Beechwood which go into Runcorn & Widnes; plus Marbury, Witton & Rudheath and Shakerley from Tatton; Dane Valley from Congleton. Unites Northwich and environs in one seat. Marginal Con (c 10%)

    8. Runcorn & Widnes 78,327: current Halton plus Halton Lea and Beechwood from Weaver Vale. Ultra-safe Lab

    9. Warrington North 78,159: current seat plus Bewsey & Whitecross from Warrington South. Safe Lab

    10. Warrington South 74,830: current seat minus Bewsey & Whitecross which goes into Warrington North. Marginal Con (10%)

    11. North West Cheshire 71,127: Altrincham & Sale West less the two Sale wards; Knutsford, Mobberley, and High Legh from Tatton. Partly designed to do Gideon out of a seat (and the name is a two-fingered salute to his conurbationism). Very safe Con

    12. Crewe & Nantwich 76,041: current seat plus Audlem from Eddisbury. Audlem helps Cons but Eddisbury would be oversized if it stayed in. Marginal Con

    13. South East Cheshire 73,548: current Congleton less Dane Valley; plus Sutton and Gawsworth from Macclesfield and Chelford from Tatton. Very safe Con

    14. Macclesfield 74,022: Macclesfield itself along with Prestbury, Broken Cross, and Bollington; Alderley Edge, Handforth and all the Wilmslow wards from Tatton. Slightly less Conservative as a result but still safe enough. Safe Con

    15. Cheadle & Poynton 73,509: current Cheadle less Stepping Hill; plus the two Poynton wards from Macclesfield. Poynton works with Bramhall. Semi-safe Con.

    16. Hazel Grove 73,844: current Hazel Grove; Stepping Hill from Cheadle (fits much better); Disley from Macclesfield. Semi-safe Con

    17. Stockport: 71,475: no need to split Stockport east-west- you just add Burnage to the current seat. Safe Lab

  41. PS- I have deliberately tried to do Gideon out of a seat albeit as subtly as I could.

  42. Maxim- well put it this way- Wirral would have been Conservative by about 8000 in 2015. As late as 1992, the majority would have been over 20,000. Now it may well be that the Conservative position starts to stabilise and that Corbyn puts off some of the wealthier public sector workers living in places like West Kirby but it certainly wouldn’t be the rock solid Tory seat that it was forty years ago.

  43. Pepps
    Also are you ok with me referring to you as that? Seems weird now that I’m writing it…kinda miss typing Pepperminttea already lol

    Blackburn=Yes you can do that and I did initially but there were knock on effects from other areas were I had NO other options (North Lancashire to be specific) and it forced me into splitting the town, all other seats either didn’t match the quota or were just plain horrible, I’ll happily explain the exact process which lead to it but I should warn you its a long procedure so only if you ask for it.

    Cheshire/Greater Manchester=Believe me I tried, as I said at the beginning Cheshire was a real pain and I found making two cross county seats was the only way to work it, I’ll look over what you’ve done again and see if I can make modifications.

    Warrington=I explained that up thread, I could easily go down the remove Bewsey route but that would create a marginal Northwich seat (which looks horrendous) so no partisan advantage either way so I just went with what looked nice.

    Compass Points= My Farnworth and Walkden seat could easily become Bolton South and Walkden? Re Bury North on closer inspection (which I’ll come onto) I could easily just call it Bury.

    Heywood and Radcliffe=This was a bit of a messy area (I got hemmed in) but in the end I removed Redvales from Bury North and used it to connect the Heywood wards to the Radcliffe wards. Then for Bury North I added Norden and Bamford from Rochdale, not ideal I know but don’t let it ever be said I gerrymander for Labs benefit, doing this increases the Tory notional majority in Bury N by about 4000. Anyway it was that or split Bury into a “Bury West and Radcliffe and a Bury East and Heywood which I have to be honest now that I’m looking at it I actually prefer 😛

  44. SOUTH EAST LANCS (WITH A BIT OF CHESHIRE AND YORKSHIRE HERE AND THERE)

    18. Manchester Wythenshawe 74,315: current Wythenshawe & Sale East minus all the Trafford wards; the two Didsbury wards from Manchester Withington. Memo to naysayers: Didsbury was in Manchester Wythenshawe between 1950 and 1974. Very safe Lab

    19. Davyhulme & Sale 74,925: the two Davyhulme wards, Urmston, Flixton, and Bucklow St Martins from Stretford and Urmston; all of Sale. Looks like a Con gerrymander but isn’t really as it’s trending Lab in any event and unites Sale in one seat. Ultra-marginal Lab (for now)

    20. Stretford & Chorlton 75,228: the Streford wards of Trafford borough; the two Chorlton wards and Old Moat from Manchester Withington; Whalley Range from Manchester Gorton. Can think of worse pairings. Safe Lab.

    21. Manchester Gorton 73,568: Current Gorton seat less Whalley Range; plus Withington ward. Very safe Lab

    22. Manchester Ardwick 76,134: current Manchester Central less Moston. Very safe Lab

    23. Manchester Blackley 75,413: current Blackley & Broughton less Kersal; Moston from Manchester Central. Very safe Lab

    24. Middleton & Prestwich 77,550. All of Prestwich wards from Bury South; Kersal from Salford; all of Middleton wards plus Hopwood Hall from Heywood & Middleton. 1918-1983 seat recreated. Safe Lab (these days)

    25. Hyde 72,596: all of the Hyde wards from Stalybridge & Hyde; all three Denton wards and both Reddish wards from Denton & Reddish. A compact seat with all three main towns included in their entireties. Safe Lab

    26. Saddleworth & Stalybridge 75,211: Stalybridge wards, Longdendale, and Mossley from Stalybridge & Hyde; Dukinfield from Denton & Reddish; the three Saddleworth wards from Oldham East & Saddleworth. An imaginative seat tying together townships of the South Pennines. Marginal Lab

    27. Ashton under Lyne 75,106: current seat less Dukinfield; Audenshaw from Denton & Reddish. Very safe Lab

    28. Oldham 75,902: Oldham West & Royton less Royton wards; Alexandra, St Marys and Waterhead from Oldham East & Saddleworth. A seat uniting core Oldham and therefore not dissimilar to the pre-1950 Oldham constituency that Winston Churchill briefly represented as a young MP. Very safe Lab

    29. Heywood & Royton 75,770: Royton wards from Oldham West & Royton; St James, Shaw, and Crompton from Oldham East & Saddleworth; the two Heywoods, Castleton and Bamford from Heywood & Middleton; Milnrow and Balderstone from Rochdale. A recreation of the 1950-1983 seat of that name. Marginal Lab, UKIP second.

    30. Rochdale 73,399: current Rochdale less Milnrow; Bamford and Norden from Heywood & Middleton. Unites Rochdale with its western suburbs. Safe Lab

    31. Rossendale & Darwen 74,991: current seat less Fenhurst; plus Worsley & Greenfield from Hyndburn constituency. All of Rossendale borough now in the seat- not an ideal seat but better than splitting Blackburn. Marginal Con

    32. Blackburn 72,816: current seat plus Fenhurst from Rossendale & Darwen. No need to split it east-west. Safe Lab

    33. Bury North 73,153: current seat plus Bradshaw from Bolton North East. The inclusion of leafy Bradshaw makes it less precarious for the Conservatives but it’s what the BCE proposed in 2013!

    34. Radcliffe-cum-Farnworth 76,909: Unsworth, Pilkington Park and the Radcliffe wards from Bury South; Kearsley, Farnworth, Harper Green and Little Lever from Bolton South East. A revival of that psephologists’ favourite which existed between 1885 and 1918. The boundaries are remarkably similar (the old seat included Unsworth, Radcliffe, Farnworth, Pilkington and Kearsley). . Safe Lab

    35. Bolton 73,099: Bolton North East less Bradshaw; Great Lever and Rumworth from Bolton South East. Unites most of core Bolton. Much more safely Labour than Bolton North East. Safe Lab

    36. Westhoughton 77,131: current Bolton West less Atherton; Hulton from Bolton South East; Hindley Green from Makerfield. Probably no partisan effect- very tight indeed in 2015. Lab now v competitive in Hulton so addition of it much less of a boon than has been suggested.

    37. Wigan 72,733: unchanged! Safe Lab

    38. Makerfield 72,047: current seat less Hindley Green; Golborne & Lowton West from Leigh. Safe Lab

    39. Leigh 74,949: current seat less Golborne & Lowton West; Atherton from Bolton West. Lowton split but Atherton reunited. Swings and roundabouts. Safe Lab

    40. Salford & Eccles 72,473: current seat less the Swinton and Pendlebury wards; Winton, Earlham and Cadishead from Worsley & Eccles South. Salford borough now split north-south. Eccles united in one seat. Safe Lab

    41. Worsley 74,004: wards from Salford & Eccles covering Pendlebury and Swinton; Worsley, Walkden and Little Hulton wards from Worsley & Eccles South. Safe Lab

  45. Tory – I agree.

    Max – Parkgate, Willaston will never trend Labour (even in a 1997 type result).

    IMHO Labour peaked here – and only won both Wirral seats in 2015 due to the 2 Tory PPCs.

    Although even Esther would struggle to lose that creation above. [Incidentally she won’t return from what I hear – not that that’s her choice]

  46. NORTH LANCS

    42. Accrington 73,077: borough of Hyndburn; the wards covering Padiham, Hapton, and Rose Grove from Burnley. Semi-safe Lab

    43. Burnley & Nelson 73,187: Burnley less wards hived off to Accrington; the wards of Pendle covering Nelson. All of core Burnley is contained within this seat. Semi-safe Lab

    44. Clitheroe & Colne 76,552: Pendle less wards covering Nelson; the borough of Ribble Valley less wards covering Longridge area and Chipping. More safely Conservative than Pendle and Ribble Valley. Very safe Con

    45. North Lancashire 77,487: the wards covering Longridge area from Ribble Valley; Fulwood and the part of Wyre east of the Wyre estuary; the Lune Valley and Silverdale, Carnforth etc from Lancaster borough. A sprawling seat but logical in so far as it enables Morecambe and Lancaster to be paired in one seat and for the most part it consists of rural/small town communities with interests in common. Very safe Con

    46. Lancaster & Morecambe 76,426: the wards from Lancaster & Fleetwood covering Lancaster proper; the wards from Morecambe & Lunesdale covering Heysham, Morecambe proper and the suburbs between Morecambe and Lancaster. A compact and logical seat. More safely Labour than Lancaster & Fleetwood. Semi-safe Lab

    47. North Fylde 73,908: Blackpool North & Cleveleys minus Warbreck, Layton, Claremont and Park which go into a new ‘Blackpool’ seat; the Fleetwood wards of ‘Lancaster & Fleetwood’; the Stanah, Carleton and Tithebarn wards from Wyre & Preston North. A revival of the pre-1983 seat of that name but on considerably more compact boundaries and including the northernmost suburbs of Blackpool. Poulton-Le Fylde is split between here and South Fylde- perhaps not ideal but it’s the only way the numbers could be made to work. Marginal Con

    48. South Fylde 71,765: current Fylde plus Breck and Hardhorn from Wyre & Preston North. Takes half of Poulton le-Fylde. Safe Con

    49. Blackpool 72,993: current Blackpool South plus the four wards hived off from Blackpool North & Cleveleys. Unites core Blackpool into a single seat Consequently, the Labour position is improved. Semi-safe Lab

    50. Preston 76,565 current Preston; College and Cadley from Wyre & Preston North; the three Penwortham wards from South Ribble. Preston has to expand south of the Ribble to achieve the quota so I have paired with the suburb of Penwortham to which it is connected by road. Safe Lab.

  47. Tory
    Reluctant to criticise since Cheshire was a nightmare for me and its the part of my plan I’m most wiling to modify, will definitely look closer at your proposals for the Stockport area, I only split it cos I couldn’t get things to work.

  48. Tory
    North Lancashire looks pretty much identical for both our plans right down to Preston expanding southwards, though I do prefer the name Blackpool South and Blackpool North and Fleetwood, I feel it better represents the constituent areas.

  49. Also I have to say quite a few variants of my “Ribble Valley and Pendalside” (although different names obviously) I was certain I’d get accused of gerrymandering for that one but obviously we’re all united in thinking the BC’s lazy addition of the totally disconnected Cliviger and Worsthorne to Pendle was unacceptable and thus went with the alternative.

  50. SOUTH LANCS

    51. Leyland 75,579: current South Ribble constituency less those wards belonging to the West Lancashire borough and the three Penwortham wards; all those wards belonging to the South Ribble borough currently in the Ribble Valley constituency. Conservative majority would have been about 8.5% in 2015 (vs 11.5% in current South Ribble). Marginal Con

    52. Chorley 73,323: unchanged! Marginal Lab

    53. Southport 75,828: current Southport plus three wards from West Lancashire. The changes possibly flip it from Liberal Democrat to notionally Conservative but very close.

    54. West Lancashire 71,897: current West Lancashire plus the ward of Rufford. Semi-safe Con

    55. Crosby 76,378: current Sefton Central plus Victoria from Bootle. Reunites core Crosby. The constituency is renamed to reflect this. Semi-safe Lab

    56. Bootle & Walton 77,290: current seat less Victoria; the two Liverpool wards covering Walton. A defensible pairing as Orrell is currently in Bootle and Orrell Park is in Liverpool Walton. Ultra-safe Lab

    57. Liverpool Exchange 77,701: current Liverpool Riverside less Mossley Hill and Greenbank; Anfield and Everton from Liverpool Walton; Tuebrook from Liverpool West Derby. The ‘city centre’ constituency. Ultra-safe Lab

    58. Liverpool Wavertree 76,225: current Liverpool Wavertree plus Mossley Hill and Greenbank. Ultra-safe Lab

    59. Liverpool West Derby 73,950: current seat less Tuebrook; Fazakerley from Liverpool Walton. Fazakerley is somewhat tacked on to the seat being the other side of the East Lancs road but it is also linked by a couple of smaller roads to the rest of the seat. Ultra-safe Lab

    60. Liverpool Garston 71,942: current Garston & Halewood renamed. Ultra-safe Lab

    61. Huyton & Kirby 77,916: current Knowsley seat renamed. Ultra-safe Lab

    62. St Helens South 74,885: current St Helens South & Whiston renamed. Very safe Lab

    63. St Helens North 72,060: current St Helens North. Very safe Lab

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)