North West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Theresa Griffin (Labour) 594063 33.9% (+13.5%)
2. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 481932 27.5% (+11.7%)
3. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) 351985 20.1% (-5.5%)
4. Afzal Khan (Labour) (297032)
5. Louise Bours (UKIP) (240966)
6. Julie Ward (Labour) (198021)
7. Sajjad Karim (Conservative) (175993)
8. Steven Woolfe (UKIP) (160644)
. (Green) 123075 7% (-0.7%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 105487 6% (-8.3%)
. (BNP) 32826 1.9% (-6.1%)
. (Independence from Europe) 25999 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 19522 1.1% (-1.3%)
. (Pirate) 8597 0.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 5402 0.3% (-1.1%)
. (Socialist Equality) 5067 0.3% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Theresa Griffin (Labour) Educated at Lancaster University. Trade union organiser. Former Liverpool councillor. Contested North West European election 1999, 2004, 2009. MEP for North West since 2014
portrait
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
portrait
Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
portrait
Afzal Khan (Labour) Born 1960, Pakistan. Solicitor. Manchester councillor since 2000. MEP for North West since 2014. Awarded the CBE for services to race relations.
portrait
Louise Bours (UKIP) Educated at Mountview Conservatoire for the Performing Arts. Singer and actor. Former Congleton councillor. Contested Cheshire Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014
portrait
Julie Ward (Labour) Born 1957, Ripon. Educated at Newcastle University. Ran a social enterprise providing services for people with mental health problems. MEP for North West since 2014
portrait
Sajjad Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for the North West since 2004.. Originally elected as a Liberal Democrat, he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
portrait
Steven Woolfe (UKIP) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Barrister. Contested City and East 2012 London Assembly election, Greater Manchester Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Robert Atkins (Conservative) 423174 25.6% (+1.5%)
2. Arlene McCarthy (Labour) 336831 20.4% (-6.9%)
3. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 261740 15.8% (+3.7%)
4. Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) 235639 14.3% (-1.6%)
5. Saj Karim (Conservative) (211587)
6. Brian Simpson (Labour) (168416)
7. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) (141058)
8. Nick Griffin (BNP) 132194 8% (+1.6%)
. (Green) 127133 7.7% (+2.1%)
. (English Democrats) 40027 2.4% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 26224 1.6% (n/a)
. (Christian) 25999 1.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 23580 1.4% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 8783 0.5% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 6980 0.4% (n/a)
. Francis Apaloo (Independent) 3621 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Robert Atkins (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Educated at Highgate School. Haringey councillor 1968-1977. MP for Preston North 1979-1983, South Ribble from 1983-1997. Knighted in 1997. MEP for North West England since 1999. Minister of Transport 1989-1990, Minister of Sport 1990-1992, Minister of State at Northern Ireland Office 1992-1994, Minister of State, Environment 1994-1995.
portrait
Arlene McCarthy (Labour) Born 1960, Belfast. Formerly a European liasion officer for Kirkless council. MEP since 1994.
portrait
Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
portrait
Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954, Lytham St Annes. Educated at Cheadle Hulme School and Cambridge University. MP for Littleborough and Saddleworth 1995-1997. Contested Oldham East and Saddleworth 1997. MEP for the North West since 1999. Former leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament, he stepped down in 2008 after being criticised over a reply to a constituent that accused her of racism. 
portrait
Saj Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for North West England since 2004, orginally elected as a Liberal Democrat he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
portrait
Brian Simpson (Labour) Born 1953, Leigh. Former PE teacher. Former Warrington councillor and Merseyside county councillor. MEP for Cheshire East 1989-1999, MEP for North-West 1999-2004 when he lost his seat. He returned to the European Parliament in 2006 following the resignation of Terry Wynn.
portrait
Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
portrait
Nick Griffin (BNP) Born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and edited BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has pursued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005, Barking 2010 for the BNP.


.

Comments - 314 Responses on “Europe North West”
  1. Tory and HH
    Sorry that came out wrong. What I meant to say was that most SECULAR youngsters from Muslim families don’t self identify as Muslim.

  2. So what’s the agreement on the result?

    Remain by 56

  3. There’s around 20 smaller polls out.

    Most have only polled 200 – 250 people, so they’re not as reliable of the population. They do of course give a good indicator how that profession or group might vote.

    However, Nursing Times polled 500 nurses:

    Leave 43%
    Remain 41%

    LGBF polled 280 people in and around Canal Street last week:

    Leave 62%
    Remain 36%

    [Caveat to that being it was just after Orlando, although I was struck more by how few were undecided amongst the group asked compared with all other polls]

    The Jewish Chronicle refer to a new EU poll, although the only one I can see via an online search is their one from a month ago (sample size of 1,000):

    49% Remain
    34% Leave
    17% Undecided

    Barnaby may have more info and/or a paper copy?

    As I said the others were small specialist sub groups eg 72% of racegoers backed Leave, 61% of hairdressers supported Leave [again I think both groups may be due to policy specific gripes they have with the EU, plus racegoers tend to be 99% White, so they’re not representative of the UK, but interesting nonetheless]

    Equally, 59% of students supported Remain in a radio survey in Manc (again the sample was small however at only 108), but does look similar to the BMG sup group data I’ve seen previously.

    There’s 2 polls of lawyers. These seem to contradict each other, but it may be that one is more corporate, London-based firms and barristers (it was 63% Remain), whereas the other may be more high street firms of solicitors in the provinces (as that was 51% for Leave.)

  4. Lancs Observer
    Interesting polls but as you rightly say I think we need to take them with a truckload of salt due to the small samples.

    For example I expect the student vote for remain to be well higher than 59%. If remain win comfortably it could feasibly reach 75-80% amongst students in my opinion. Amongst my friends and classmates in uni I only know one leaver, everyone else was staunchly in favour of remaining, similar vibes from my friends re their classmates too, during the campaigns on campus or in the student accommodation areas the response was overwhelmingly pro remain (on more than one occasion returns showing 100% of those contacted in favour of remaining)

    Now this could all just be Liverpool students but somehow I doubt that makes a massive difference. I think everyone accepts the issue with students is not how they’ll vote but actually getting them to the polling station which is probably why Liverpool Lab have focused their entire GOTV campaigns in Wavertree and Riverside (the two seats with the highest student populations in Liverpool)

  5. I don’t know but I bet there are problems with large numbers of students turning up to vote at the last minute without polling cards which often causes problems with people who aren’t living at a permanent address.

  6. Rivers10 – thanks. I doubt almost any subgroup would be as high as that for either side (except perhaps 80% of Sinn Fein and SDLP voters for Remain).

    All of the BMG data does put students around that (59%) mark for Remain. But I don’t know if by students they’ve polled Universities and FE colleges or sixth formers.

    Of course 20% of students in Lpool are EU citizens who do not have a vote on Thursday (unless they’re Irish).

    Incidentally what are you studying? I’d imagine BA/social sciences to be higher for Remain than the average.

    I’d imagine first time voters to be the highest % for Remain, but as MP-R suggests sadly a lot aren’t registered and only 35% of them vote.

  7. Andy JS – yes that occurred in both 2010 (although then the problem was staff running out of ballot papers) and 2015.

    The problem was Uni halls were then registered en masse by the Unis. Some list students by flat number which is very helpful. Amazingly some just list eg 400 students – meaning staff had to search through looking for their names when they turned up without their polling cards (as most students seem to do).

    IER has meant has meant a fall in students registered and as I suggested above: 20% of students in cities are EU citizens without a vote on Thursday, so there shouldn’t be huge queues. Some have postal votes with it being the start of Festival season and the holidays after exams.

  8. IpsosMORI:

    Impact of Immigration on:

    The NHS – 27% Good
    – 55% Bad

    Britain as a whole – 39% Good
    42% Bad

    Of those who may change their mind: 46% say immigration has had a bad impact on Britain.

  9. Thanks for that LANCS O.

    I must reply to your assertion – on another thread – regarding BETFAIR.

    It’s is NOT a spread betting firm. It’s main site is a betting exchange – although they do also now have a normal bookmakers fixed odds website.

    Can I also help you to work out implied probability from odds.

    3/1 is 25% probability.

    Simply add 1 to the odds and divide 100 by that number: so 3/1 plus 1 = 4. 100÷4=25%.

    7/4 is 36.4%. (7/4 + 1 = 2.75. 100÷2.75=36.4%).

    9/1 is 10%. (100÷10)

  10. Lancs Observer
    I was studying (finished my final semester a couple months back so assuming I pass my exams I’m finished) Modern History and Politics but for the record I have friends who are studying bioengineering, maths or foreign languages and the vibe is the same from all three supposedly.

    Turnout sadly will be a killer but I’m already signed up to help on the day with the local Lab parties to get those kids to the booth.

  11. Deepthroat – it was I who pointed out 25% re 3/1. Another poster said the odds gave Leave barely a 20% chance.

    But again 3/1 with Ladbrokes doesn’t mean there’s a 25% probability, it merely means they’ve set it at that price in order to attract bets.

    If betting was pure probability it’d be very boring and pointless and there’d be no market.

    I still have no idea why you’re placing so much attention on an exchange market though, for the reasons I stated previously. They just don’t attract the numbers of punters that Ladbrokes, Coral, WHill et al do and one large bet can skew the odds.

    Rivers10 – thanks. Law, medicine seemed to be the right wing faculties at Lpool Uni [as opposed top the generally Left of centre undergrads. Tthe Guild was run by Labour students until they lost all of their Sabb positions in 1998 – a backlash after Tuition Fees and mismanagement from memory], but I realise that may not mean they vote much differently in a Referendum.

  12. Rivers10 – incidentally I’m surprised there’s enough students around to knock up on Thursday. Do you mean terraced roads rather than Halls? The only students still around at this time of year, seemed to be Intl students who never went home ha

  13. Deepthroat – incidentally that convoluted description of how to calculate that 3/1 is 25% actually made me laugh (sorry).

    I think I’m only 10 or 15 years your senior, but is that how you were taught? Maybe it’s the calculator age. But to me (perhaps HH will agree), 3/1 is clearly 25% from just looking at it. Maybe it’s just how my brain works, as I always enjoyed the Countdown numbers game as a child.

  14. Lancs
    Yep terraced student accommodation mostly around Wavertree and Kensington but some I the city centre, the rents for such places (unlike halls of residence) are for the whole year not just term time so they can still live there until August which most seem to do.

  15. In 1992 turnout was nearly 80% and there weren’t any reports of problems with people not being able to vote. There were large queues in many places but they were catered for adequately everywhere.

  16. LANCS O – OK you have me laughing now. I agree that 3/1 is instinctively 25% to a lot of us. But the formula works well with other less straight4ward fractions…11/10; 5/4; 5/6; 8/11; 2/7 …etc.

    Yes and of course bookmakers odds do not solely reflect their opinion on what chance there is of something happening. Sometimes the weight of money forces the price to change even though they disagree, the “probability” implied by the odds offered.

    Anyway did you hear JOHN CURTICE on NEWSNIGHT saying that the odds on LEAVE are much shorter than his opinion of LEAVE’s chances of winning.

  17. Sorry much LONGER not shorter

  18. Yes 3/1 is just 1 in 4. It’s probably as I’m used to placing bets on the horses that I can see odds as decimals. You’d enjoy the French horse racing as their odds are decimalised ie 6.4/1, 0.8/1 etc (horrible)

    I didn’t see Newsnight tonight. I saw him say it was 50:50 last week.

  19. Rivers10 – interesting. Yes, there’s some very plush new private halls in the centre. Must be hard to canvass them, but I suppose you could just knock on every door if you get in ha

  20. LANCS O – have you put any money down on this referendum?

    I have had two bets on turnout (over 57.5% and under 67%) and on LEAVE overall to win and also CAMERON to be booted out by 1Jul16.

    The best bet at the moment must be ENG to vote LEAVE but SCOTLAND to vote REMAIN. .it’s a 10$3 chance.

  21. Yes, had 5 about a month or so ago. England Leave 2/1. Remain 45-50% @ 10/3. Leave win & < 65% turnout double @ 9/2.

    [As I said the bookies don't appear to be very savvy re political bets, as – at the time – you could cover any bets with an England Leave but UK remain double @ 4/1.]

  22. Lancs Observer

    Deepthroat is approx 50, so are you sure you’re “10-15 years his senior”? I thought you were waaay younger than that. You have the writing style of a much younger man though being a professional journalist perhaps explains it.

  23. I was confused by LANCS post as well!

    Bookies / betting markets suggest – at this time :-

    REMAIN win 53% or 54% total
    Turnout 68% or 69%

  24. HH- really? I thought Deepthroat was the 20-year-old from the Walton/Bootle boundary who denied he was Cllr Jake Morrison just before the General?

    Apologies, Deepthroat – that must have been one of the posters who disappeared soon after the GE.

  25. Incidentally, a UKIP ‘Project Fact’ coach is in Merseyside today. It’s occupants – including some MEPs – flyered Bootle shoppers, then Liverpool city centre Roe St gyratory/Queen Square bus stops, then Birkenhead.

    According to Bay TV (the newish Liverpool TV channel) the response from shoppers was very positive – but obviously during the day they’d be mainly pensioners.

  26. I think you’re thinking of The Results.

    Deepthroat said he was almost 50

  27. Rivers10 – I re-read your post and realised you meant terraced roads in the city centre rather than the new plush halls. I’d been struggling to think of a single terraced road in the city centre, but then a colleague mentioned there’s 10 just outside near the Royal Hospital so you probably meant there.

    (He was called out for a cannabis farm which was found I think). I did ask him if he saw any posters and he said 3 for Remain and he saw a few students moving out for the Summer. Happy hunting if that’s where you’re heading.

  28. I know where you mean and yes that will probably be on the hit list. There isn’t much in the way of terraced student accommodation in the city centre, just the odd street here and there. There is quite a lot south of Abercromby Square though where we will probably be headed and also a big patch just off Great Newton Street not far from the Bullring that I used to walk past every day on my way to uni along with a few other places. But most of the effort will probably be in Wavertree or Kensington as I said. Hope all goes well.

  29. http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/queen-liverpool-spot-yourself-gallery-11510632

    HM Queen drew crowds of around 5,000 today according to NW News. “I love the bones of her” and “I’d follow her to the ends of the earth” from women with strong Scouse accents made me realise that patriotism can still draw crowds and made me think of the Steptoe phrase about his Dad walking ‘miles in his barefeet to vote.’

  30. It seems that some of those small polls (upthread) were largely accurate.

    BBC NW News went to Blackpool and spoke to gay voters. 75% had voted Leave. This is interesting – a sort of working class polar opposite of Brighton.

  31. I didn’t think he ever would.

    He looks older, but I think he’s still only in his late 30s.

    The lawyer and newish MEP seems to be the favourite.

  32. I find Nuttall’s explanation for not standing really strange:

    ” I can step aside with my objective achieved”.

    He’s also standing down a deputy leader of UKIP later this year, too.

    It gives the impression that – like Farage – he’s enjoyed protesting against the EU but doesn’t have much idea or even interest in the more difficult task of what the UK does next.

  33. I don’t.

    Likewise I never understood the supposed attack of UKIP MEP’s low attendance record. Do people not realise what UKIP stands for?

    All UK MEPs will be gone in 2-3 years.

    UKIP may carry on, but I can’t see it being a force again. Winning the European elections and a Leave win were their reasons for existence.

  34. I disagree. Right-wing populist parties have been on the rise pretty much everywhere in Europe and I think UKIP are just our manifestation of that, even though they started out as just an anti-EU party. It would take quite a dramatic change in the approach of the main parties to significantly reduce the appeal of UKIP. Once the exit process gets started properly they will have lots of grievances to air anyway for Brexit not being on their terms/the terms they consider the public to have voted for.

  35. I felt like Paul Nuttall was probably UKIP’s best chance at a breakthrough in 2020, because he is (a) Northern & (b) from the branch of UKIP that isn’t just the Tory right on steroids (NHS-sceptic, against workers’ rights, etc). He was the one to appeal to Stoke, Rotherham etc, and might actually have delivered a handful of Westminster seats.

  36. I think Woolfe would do better than Nuttall.

    Definitely easier on the ear for swing voters.

    The party needs to move away from this endless drivel about immigration being to blame for everything, I think Steve will be a good choice.

    Or Diane James.

  37. “The party[UKIP] needs to move away from this endless drivel about immigration being to blame for everything”

    Wasn’t immigration the number 1 issue in the minds of most of those who voted ‘Leave’ 2 weeks ago? I’m happy to agree that UKIP were talking drivel on this, but it’s surprising to hear the same from a UKIP candidate.

  38. James – perhaps it was in the eyes of most of them, it certainly wasn’t one of mine.

    The leave campaign did talk about immigration, but nowhere near as much, nor with the same tone as has been the case from UKIP as a whole for the last 12 months or more.

    Sure, there’s an issue with open borders in respect of the ability (or lack thereof) to make plans in terms of infrastructure but I’m not one for scapegoating those who take advantage of the system in which would be migrants find themselves.

    My ‘Carswellism’ frequently lands me in conflict with fellow UKIP members, but does give me the opportunity to push a more positive message in debates and what not.

    At the last one I did (couple of weeks before the ref) I was barracked by apparent UKIP supporters but won over a pro EU student support worker and someone from the chamber of commerce by putting forward reasoned arguments.

    I am frequently asked why I’m in UKIP (from those inside and outside the party) but I quite like the manifesto that was written by Suzanne Evans and have tried my best to promote it.

    Maxim – Woolfe I think is 48.

  39. Luke – thanks, that’s very interesting.

    I’d understood that most of UKIP and a significant number of ‘Leave’ Tories favoured ‘hard’ Brexit, so as to be able to have full control over immigration from EU countries, but clearly you’re an exception.

  40. PollTroll
    “I felt like Paul Nuttall was probably UKIP’s best chance at a breakthrough in 2020, because he is (a) Northern & (b) from the branch of UKIP that isn’t just the Tory right on steroids”

    I wouldn’t argue with most of that except the latter half re Nuttall not being “Tory right on steroids” since that is precisely the wing of UKIP he is from. Like Farage he has obviously toned it back a lot in recent years but his earlier comments regarding free markets and the likes are the type that would make a US Republican cheer, he has explicitly called for NHS privatisation before amongst other things.

    Not arguing what effect this would have on a Nuttall leadership just clarifying where the guy stands, he is very much from the “Tory right on steroids” wing of the party.

  41. PollTroll – that’s often said of Nuttall (cos he’s from Bootle) – but it’s incorrect.

    He was from the Right of the Tory Party and wants to privatise the BBC etc.

    Although I agree his accent might hep in the North, but not in Essex etc.

  42. James – I’ve always wanted out since I was in my teens (30 now) but I’m not won over by a hard, anti European position – I left the Tories because I was sick of Cameron dithering over a referendum just after he became PM.

    I’d rather we didn’t have free movement and maintained control over who can come and in what number, mainly from a planning point of view rather than being concerned that someone speaks a different language in front of me in a queue.

    If we had to accept free movement so be it, I always subscribed more to the likes of Hannan than Farage, though the latter used to intrigue me with his chat on markets etc. Until he preferred to criticise foreigners to shore up voters already shored up.

  43. I assume by that you mean European but not EU, seems to be a phrase Hannan and colleagues use.

  44. Nuttall is Tory on steroids when he’s being himself.

    When he’s acting up to an audience he’s BNP on sedatives. Some stuff he’s said had be cringing.

    I’ve met him twice in person and conversed with him. Must admit seeing a Tory with a Scouse accent seemed odd enough, but I must admit I liked him. Interesting to speak with.

  45. I can only speak for myself, barely mentioned immigration once until I was prompted.

    Can’t say I said anything dishonest either.

    Doubt that was the case everywhere

  46. To match Pepperminttea’s detailed boundary plan for London here are my own thoughts on the North West. Opinions and suggestions are greatly desired especially on and around Cheshire which is the one part of the plan I’m not hugely happy with.

    (Note * seats are for the Wirral, I had a big debate over this area with some posters, I’m sticking with my preferred options but the Wirral is nicely compartmentalised away from the rest of the region so it can be modified freely without effecting the rest of the plan)

    1) *Wirral North West (Greenwood)
    2) *Birkenhead North and Wallasey (Probably Eagle assuming Frank Field will retire)
    3) *Birkenhead South and Bebington (McGovern)
    4) *Ellesmere Port and Heswall (Madders but its a much more Tory friendly seat, Evans might contest this since his Weaver Vale seat disappears)
    5) City of Chester (Notionally a Tory seat by a microscopic margin of less than 10 votes Matheson would obviously contest this)
    6) Eddisbury (Sandbach)
    7) Crewe and Nantwich (Timpson)
    8) Northwich and Lymm (Osborne’s seat but assuming he stands down both Evans and Mowat would be desperate for this since both have a claim and Evan’s seat disappears and Mowat’s becomes unwinnable)
    9) Congleton (Bruce)
    10) Macclesfield and Knutsford (Rutley)
    11) Halton (Twigg)
    12) Warrington South West (Mowat’s old seat but probably out of his reach with a notional Lab majority of about 4,000 so probably a new Lab MP)
    13) Warrington North (Jones)
    14) Garston and Halewood (The other Eagle)
    15) Liverpool Wavertree (Berger but if she becomes Mersey Mayor probably Rotherham who’s own seat disappears)
    16) Liverpool Riverside and Walton (Ellman who will probably retire and pass this on, maybe to Rotherham?)
    17) Liverpool West Derby (The other Twigg)
    18) Bootle and Liverpool North (Dowd)
    19) Sefton Central (Esterson)
    20) Southport (Who knows? Notionally Tory but Pugh would probably be able to hold on but I think he’s standing down so…?)
    21) Knowsley (Howarth)
    22) Lancashire West (Cooper, Rosie not Yvette just so you know)
    23) St Helens North (McGinn)
    24) St Helens South and Whiston (Rimmer)
    25) Makerfield (Forvague)
    26) Leigh (Burnham assuming he’s not Manc Mayor)
    27) Wigan (Nandy)
    28) Bolton West (Green’s seat but notionally Lab and quite an ask for him to win Lab notional majority of about 2,500)
    29) Bolton North East (Crausby)
    30) Farnworth and Walkden (Qureshi)
    31) Salford and Cheetham (Long Bailey)
    32) Worsley and Eccles (Keeley)
    33) Blackley and Prestwich (Stringer has the bigger claim but Lewis could call this too)
    34) Manchester Central (Powell)
    35) Stretford and Urmston (Green)
    36) Altrincham and Sale West (Brady)
    37) Wythenshawe and Sale East (Kane)
    38) Manchester Gorton (Kaufman but he surely must retire? He’s about a thousand years old…)
    39) Manchester Withington (Smith)
    40) Cheadle and Wilmslow (Robinson)
    41) Hazel Grove and Poynton (Wragg)
    42) Stockport West and Burnage (Coffey)
    43) Stockport East and Denton (Gwynne)
    44) Stalybridge and Hyde (Reynolds)
    45) Ashton-under-Lyne (Rayner)
    46) Oldham East and Saddleworth (Abrahams)
    47) Oldham West and Middleton (McMahon)
    48) Rochdale (Danczuk unfortunately…)
    49) Heywood and Radcliffe (Probably McInnes but Lewis would have a claim to this too)
    50) Bury North (Nuttall)
    51) Chorley (Hoyle)
    52) South Ribble (Kennedy)
    53) Preston (Hendrick)
    54) Fylde (Menzies)
    55) Blackpool South (Marsden)
    56) Blackpool North and Fleetwood (Maynard)
    57) Morecambe and Lancaster (Smith who now finds herself in a safe seat)
    58) Wyre and Lunesdale (Morris and Wallace battle it out for this safe seat, both have equal claim to it)
    59) Ribble Valley and Pendalside (This is really Evan’s seat but Stephenson would put in a claim since its creation screws him)
    60) Burnley and Nelson (An equal mix of Julie Cooper’s Burnley and Andrew Stephenson’s Pendle albeit a seat that is safely Lab thus Coopers)
    61) Rossendale and Padham) Berry would probably contest this cos he’s in with a shot but its notionally Lab by about 1,500)
    62) Accrington and Blackburn East (Jones)
    63) Blackburn West and Darwen (Hollern)
    64) Westmorland and Lonsdale (Farron)
    65) Barrow and Furness (Woodcock would contest this though its notionally Tory by about 1,000)
    66) West Cumbria (Reed’s seat but Hayman would have a claim and for the love of whatever please let her be selected for it over Reed…)
    67) Penrith and Solway (Stewart)
    68) Carlisle (Stevenson)

    Thoughts welcome

  47. Well the first complaint I have right of the bat is Heswall with Ellesmere Port. I remember you saying how wards like Eastham and Bromborough couldn’t possibly go with Ellesmere Port as they are too different which is a rather weak argument as they have been in the same seat before. Using this argument I don’t get how you can justify putting Heswall which is light years away demographically. I imagine you’ve done it to avoid creating a safe Tory seat on the Wirral but surely a far more pleasant way to do this would be to put Holylake in Wallasey and then add Heswall, Clatterbridge and Bebington to the seat?

  48. Will post mine tomorrow- some overlaps with yours particularly in the Lake District area and north Lancashire.

  49. Obviously the best arrangement for the Tories is a Wirral Deeside but assuming you won’t do this, this is a better arrangement than the one you proposed:

    Wallasey: current + Holylake and Meols
    Wirral West: rest of current + Heswall, Clatterbridge, Bebington
    Birkenhead: current + Bromborough
    Ellesmere Port and Neston: current + Eastham

    You preserve historic Birkenhead and Ellesmere Port remain safe for Labour. Wirral West might get a bit worse but not by much.

  50. The argument that you can’t pair Eastham/Bromborough with Ellesmere Port is very weak indeed- even today lots of Eastham/Bromoborough folk make the short trip down the M53 to work at Vauxhalls or Shell. There is no need whatsoever to split Birkenhead either. The only possible justification I can think behind those proposals of is to avoid the creation of a semi-safe Tory seat spanning the western half of the Wirral despite the fact that such a seat would be logical (and probably wouldn’t even remain semi-safely Tory for much longer!).

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)