North West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Theresa Griffin (Labour) 594063 33.9% (+13.5%)
2. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 481932 27.5% (+11.7%)
3. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) 351985 20.1% (-5.5%)
4. Afzal Khan (Labour) (297032)
5. Louise Bours (UKIP) (240966)
6. Julie Ward (Labour) (198021)
7. Sajjad Karim (Conservative) (175993)
8. Steven Woolfe (UKIP) (160644)
. (Green) 123075 7% (-0.7%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 105487 6% (-8.3%)
. (BNP) 32826 1.9% (-6.1%)
. (Independence from Europe) 25999 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 19522 1.1% (-1.3%)
. (Pirate) 8597 0.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 5402 0.3% (-1.1%)
. (Socialist Equality) 5067 0.3% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Theresa Griffin (Labour) Educated at Lancaster University. Trade union organiser. Former Liverpool councillor. Contested North West European election 1999, 2004, 2009. MEP for North West since 2014
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Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
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Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
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Afzal Khan (Labour) Born 1960, Pakistan. Solicitor. Manchester councillor since 2000. MEP for North West since 2014. Awarded the CBE for services to race relations.
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Louise Bours (UKIP) Educated at Mountview Conservatoire for the Performing Arts. Singer and actor. Former Congleton councillor. Contested Cheshire Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014
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Julie Ward (Labour) Born 1957, Ripon. Educated at Newcastle University. Ran a social enterprise providing services for people with mental health problems. MEP for North West since 2014
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Sajjad Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for the North West since 2004.. Originally elected as a Liberal Democrat, he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
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Steven Woolfe (UKIP) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Barrister. Contested City and East 2012 London Assembly election, Greater Manchester Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Robert Atkins (Conservative) 423174 25.6% (+1.5%)
2. Arlene McCarthy (Labour) 336831 20.4% (-6.9%)
3. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 261740 15.8% (+3.7%)
4. Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) 235639 14.3% (-1.6%)
5. Saj Karim (Conservative) (211587)
6. Brian Simpson (Labour) (168416)
7. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) (141058)
8. Nick Griffin (BNP) 132194 8% (+1.6%)
. (Green) 127133 7.7% (+2.1%)
. (English Democrats) 40027 2.4% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 26224 1.6% (n/a)
. (Christian) 25999 1.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 23580 1.4% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 8783 0.5% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 6980 0.4% (n/a)
. Francis Apaloo (Independent) 3621 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Robert Atkins (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Educated at Highgate School. Haringey councillor 1968-1977. MP for Preston North 1979-1983, South Ribble from 1983-1997. Knighted in 1997. MEP for North West England since 1999. Minister of Transport 1989-1990, Minister of Sport 1990-1992, Minister of State at Northern Ireland Office 1992-1994, Minister of State, Environment 1994-1995.
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Arlene McCarthy (Labour) Born 1960, Belfast. Formerly a European liasion officer for Kirkless council. MEP since 1994.
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Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
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Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954, Lytham St Annes. Educated at Cheadle Hulme School and Cambridge University. MP for Littleborough and Saddleworth 1995-1997. Contested Oldham East and Saddleworth 1997. MEP for the North West since 1999. Former leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament, he stepped down in 2008 after being criticised over a reply to a constituent that accused her of racism. 
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Saj Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for North West England since 2004, orginally elected as a Liberal Democrat he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
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Brian Simpson (Labour) Born 1953, Leigh. Former PE teacher. Former Warrington councillor and Merseyside county councillor. MEP for Cheshire East 1989-1999, MEP for North-West 1999-2004 when he lost his seat. He returned to the European Parliament in 2006 following the resignation of Terry Wynn.
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Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
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Nick Griffin (BNP) Born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and edited BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has pursued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005, Barking 2010 for the BNP.


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Comments - 330 Responses on “Europe North West”
1 2 3 7
  1. I suspect the order here will be:

    1. UKIP
    2. Labour
    3. Conservative

    but probably all fairly close. I think the threshold for winning a seat here will be slightly lower than the 8% required last time. The aforementioned parties will take 2 each, and the Libdems 1. The eighth seat is difficult to call. My guess would be UKIP to squeak it.

  2. My predicted order:

    1 Labour 3 seats
    2 Conservatives 2
    3 UKIP 2
    4 Liberal Democrats 1

    Nick Griffin will move to Yorkshire in a last ditch attempt to remain a MEP

  3. Labour MEP Brian Simpson is retiring.

    Arlene McCarthy has won reselection through the “trigger ballot” process and so she will top the Labour list.

    The regional party have shortlisted 8 people for the 7 remaining spots. Labour members will be balloted during the summer to rank them. As McCarthy is a woman, the second spot can go to the highest polling candidate regardless of gender. Then the list will be gender zipped.

    Steve Carter (from Cheshire, number 4 in 2009 list)
    Kevin Doran ( works for a public affairs company in Brussels )
    Theresa Griffin (number 3 in 2009, number 4 in 2004, number 10 in 1999)
    Olwen Hamer (Stoke Cllr)
    Afzal Khan (Manchester Cll)
    Wajid Khan (Burnley Cllr)
    Pascale Lamb (works in Bruxelles for Scottish MEP Cathrine Stihler)
    Angeliki Stogia (Manchester Cllr)

    If one of them is shortlisted for another region too, he/she can decide to opt for the other region freeing a spot here.
    The reserves include John Merry (Salford former council leader) and Kevin Peel (Manchester Cllr).

    As the previous comments in this thread indicated, the battle is for number 2 and 3 as they are the electable positions. So basically the top woman and the top man of this lot. Theresa Griffin starts as favourite opposed to other women.

  4. I suspect that Glen in Eastleigh is correct. I find it very unlikely the Tories can hold 3 seats and I think Griffin is almost certain to go. This will benefit Labour and UKIP in all liklihood.

    You’d have to be a little wary if you were Chris Davies though!

  5. In all likelihood, the Lib Dems will have 3 MEPs after the next Euro election: Catherine Bearder in SE England, Sarah Ludford in London, and Chris Davies in NW England. Since it’s such a large constituency, he probably only needs 8-10% of the vote minimum to retain his seat. Given that the 14% he got in 2009 must have been pretty close to the party’s base anyway (i.e. without tactical voters, lefty protest voters, anti-politics voters, and anti-EU LDs) – keeping two-thirds of that doesn’t seem an unreasonable aspiration. But yes, more than a little uncomfortable.

    I have to say, I can’t see UKIP coming first in the North-West, although it will be close. Certainly the local election results don’t suggest that UKIP has the same strength here as it does in the south.

    One thing we can all be glad about – Griffin is almost certainly toast.

  6. I thought the LibDems would hold their South West seat.

  7. Good point. I think they would have to come behind Labour and the Greens there, which looks unlikely given their campaigning strength in the region and the not-dreadful County results.

  8. Conservative shortlist – both MEPs reselected and will be in the top 2 positions:

    Jacqueline Foster MEP
    Sajjad Karim MEP
    Jo Barker (stood in Birmingham Hall Green 2010)
    Kevin Beaty (Eden cllr)
    Deborah Dunleavy (stood in Bolton SE 2005 and Bolton NE 2010)
    Charles Fifield (Chester & W Cheshire Cllr, chartered surveyor)
    Daniel Hamilton (Director of European Affairs at a communications company)
    Greg Morgan (Conservative Group Leader on Chorley council)
    James Walsh (Stood in Halifax in 2001)
    Chris Whiteside (Stood in Copeland 2005 and 2010)

  9. LibDem list

    Chris Davies MEP
    Helen Foster-Grime
    Jo Crotty
    Qassim Afzal
    Jane Brophy
    Sue McGuire
    Gordon Lishman
    Neil Christian

  10. Curious coincidence time. I have an old friend called Isobel who is a member of my local Labour Party & used to work as a secretary to Labour MPs. She worked first for Nigel Spearing & then for Helen Clark/Brinton. Spearing represented Newham S in London (and now also lives in my constituency) before the seat disappeared, and Brinton/Clark Peterborough, which is of course nowhere near London. As it happens both had the same Conservative opponent in consecutive elections, Jacqueline Foster, who stood & did well in Newham S in 1992, and then in Peterborough in 1997. I think she too used to live in my borough, in Twickenham (Joe James B would know), having for some years been a member of air cabin crews.

  11. The Greens took 1% of the vote in 2010, but the latest polls show them on about 3%. When combined with a general dislike of Griffin, BNP->UKIP switches and the Greens generally scoring much higher in the Euros; especially given a growing disenchantment with the major 3 parties, I believe the Greens will take the 8th seat. I would also expect the LDs to fall to 7th place and the 3rd Conservative seat to be handed over to UKIP. Overall, I would go for: UKIP 2 LAB 2 CON 2 LD 1 GRN 1 (in order of vote share).

  12. The Liberal Party polled 4% here in 2004. Are they standing again? I hear Lpool Libs were v unhappy with Cllr Radford standing on the Trotsky slate in 2009. Are the EngDems standing again? If not, could help the BNP or UKIP.

  13. Do you think Peter Cranie’s role as Deputy Green Leader if well publicised and combined with a strong campaign could have a noticeable effect?

  14. No

  15. I think it’s worth pointing out what local elections will be played out on the same day this time.

    In 2009 there were no local elections in Greater Manchester or Merseyside. It was their fallow year. This will have further dented turnout. In 2014, turnout will be boosted by local elections on the same day, giving Labour a boost even before we consider the fact that Labour are in a far better position poll-wise than 2009.

    Less significantly but also worth mentioning – Lancashire and Cumbria also had county elections on the same day in 2009, whilst only parts of those counties that have 3rds rather than all-out elections will do in 2014. This could dent Tory turnout in some of their heartland areas – e.g. Wyre, Fylde, Ribble Valley but I don’t expect this to make a massive difference in the grand scheme of things since it is only a few authorities.

    For this reason I find WindsOfChange’s comment unlikely to happen. Labour will very likely top the poll and take 3 seats, the Tories and UKIP will duke it out for 2nd place but probably both come out with 2 seats (Tories losing one, UKIP gaining one), unless they can get triple the Lib Dem vote share (unlikely but possible). Lib Dems will likely hold their sole seat (even if they get a bit hot under the collar). BNP lose their seat. i.e. Lab 3 (up 1), Con 2 (down 1), UKIP 2 (up 1), Lib Dems 1 (n/c), BNP 0 (down 1) and Greens 0 (n/c).

    Looking at the maths, the Greens either need to get more than a 3rd of the Labour vote, more than 1/2 of the Tory vote, more than 1/2 of the UKIP vote or beat the Lib Dems. I don’t see any of those happening.

    They could of won a seat in the perfect storm conditions of 2009 but fell short of both the BNP vote and the half of UKIP mark. Only by just over 5,000 votes mind but short nevertheless. They could win another time but it will require either Labour or UKIP to lose a large swathe of voters without the Tories or Lib Dems making a significant enough recovery.

  16. “For this reason I find WindsOfChange’s comment unlikely to happen.”

    With all due respect, you don’t need to write five long winded paragraphs to convince us of that. I think we’ve all come to the conclusion that WindsOfChange’s comments are barmy.

    You’ve got a good point though that the different local election seats up in 2014 versus 2009 will probably help Labour somewhat.

  17. Do we know the results of the Tory order of candidates here? I think they voted 2 weeks ago.

  18. “Do you think Peter Cranie’s role as Deputy Green Leader if well publicised and combined with a strong campaign could have a noticeable effect?”

    Not least because he’s not the deputy leader of the Greens – that’s Will Duckworth.

  19. Lancs Observer – the voting period hasn’t quite finished yet, so the order should be available at the end of the month. MEPs reselected though, so will occupy the top 2 spots.

  20. I guess the 2 Tiry incumbents should be pretty safe regardless of their rankings. And the new candidates don’t have much chances IMO as I can’t see Conservatives holding the third seat.

    On Labour side, the race is for spots 2 (safe) and 3 (winnable). I would expect Theresa Griffin and Afzal Khan to take them.

  21. I agree that Labour will get three seats. This is due to the local elections alling on the same day as the Euro elections. UKIP more likely to take more votes from Tories than any other party.

    Foster is 1. and Karim is 2. for Tories.
    Theresa Griffin will finish top in Labour selection to join Arlene. Wajid Khan is a strong contender and will pip Afzal Khan for the 2nd spot1

    Chris Davies will hold on!

  22. Conservative List

    1. Jacqueline Foster MEP
    2. Sajjad Karim MEP
    3. Kevin Beatty
    4. Deborah Dunleavy
    5. Joe Barker
    6. Daniel Hamilton
    7. Chris Whiteside
    8. James Walsh

  23. Labour list

    1. Arelene McCarthy MEP
    2 Theresa Griffin
    3 Afzal Khan
    4 Julie Ward
    5 Wajid Khan
    6 Angeliki Stogia
    7 Steve Carter
    8 Pascale Lamb

  24. That’s a remarkable result for Julie Ward she had no financial backers and ran her campaign entirely herself with a message of green socialism

  25. UKIP candidates:

    Paul Nuttall – MEP since 2009
    Michael McManus – Stood NW England Euros 2009, Stretford & Urmston 2010
    Louise Bours- Congleton cllr, Stood Cheshire PCC elections 2012
    Shneur Odze – Salford-based rabbi.
    Steven Woolfe – Manchester-based lawyer, stood Gtr Manchester PCC elections 2012
    Lee Slaughter – Stood Congleton 2010
    Peter Harper – Stood Sefton C 2010
    Simon Noble – Solicitor, stood Lancs CC elections 2013

  26. LAB 35.9 (3)
    UKIP 22.7 (2)
    CON 17.7 (2)
    LD 8.3 (1)
    GRN 7.9 (0)
    OTH 7.5 (N/A)

  27. Interesting to see UKIP fielding two prominent Jewish candidates in the NW Euros v Labour & the LibDems with 3 Asian Cllrs.

  28. Very curious indeed.

  29. Lib Dem candidates:

    1. Chris Davies – MEP since 1999
    2. Helen Foster-Grime – former Stockport cllr, stood NW England Euros 2009
    3. Jo Crotty – stood Warrington S 2010, professor at University of Salford
    4. Qassim Afzal – stood Birmingham Sparkbrook & Small Heath 2001, Manchester Gorton 2005 & 2010
    5. Jane Brophy – Trafford cllr, stood Altrincham & Sale W 2005 & 2010
    6. Sue McGuire – Sefton cllr, Chair Southport Lib Dems
    7. Gordon Lishman – Former DG of Age Concern
    8. Neil Christian – Chester-based barrister

  30. UKIP ranking

    1 Paul Nuttall 53,313
    2 Louise Bours 6,981
    3 Steven Woolfe 6,372
    4 Shneur Odze 5,247
    5 Michael McManus 4,909
    6 Lee Slaughter 2,322
    7 Simon Noble 2,099
    8 Peter Harper 1,587

  31. UKIP: 3
    LAB: 3
    CON: 1
    GRN: 1

  32. Nick Griffin can still stand here (and he is, as lead candidate)

  33. Right now my prediction for the NW will be:

    3 LAB
    2 CON
    2 UKIP (I think they’ll be battling for 2nd place with the Tories though)
    1 LD

    Had Peter Cranie been elected leader of the Greens instead of the woeful Natalie Bennett, I think the party would have stood a better chance of winning the 8th seat here. Leadership bringing more visibility to an individual.

  34. 3 UKIP
    3 LAB
    1 CON
    1 GRN

    The Conservative share will not fall here as much as in the East of England and the South East, but it will fall enough to probably deny the Tories of a second seat. UKIP should just about edge this by a couple of percent with a broad coalition of support ranging from WWC voters in the cities to more affluent countryside dwellers who are dissatisfied with the present European arrangement. I expect Labour to recover significantly to take 3 seats with the Greens being in a strong position to take the final seat on the back of a small boost from 2009 Lib Dem and micro party voters.

  35. I think the LDs are marginally more likely to take the final seat instead of the Greens, although it could be close.

  36. The Greens won’t win a seat here.

  37. The 2 yougov polls yesterday and the other polls last week seem to point to the conservatives edging back over 20% and the lib dems between 7 and 10%

    I think when the election comes round the Tories will end up on 24% lab on 25% and UKIP on 27ish leaving the liberals on about 7% which seems to be their rock bottom..

    I think based on them just missing out last time and possibly edging out the LDs in terms of votes nationally the greens will snag the last seat and deprive the liberals who will probably only win seats in London the south east and possibly south west

  38. Ukip 27, Lab 25, Con 24 and Lib 7 would mean 17% of the vote going to “others”. I tend to think the Tories will be about 22, Labour up in the high twenties and UKIP in the low thirties. Lib Dems 7/8.

  39. If my canvassing returns are correct, the Tories won’t reach 20%. In my association we have never seen a campaign in which so many people don’t want to know what we can offer. All that they say is, “I’m voting UKIP this time”. Labour will be in the mid twenties, UKIP will be in the mid thirties, and the Tories will be in the high teens. The Lib Dems will finish up on around 7 nationally, with the Greens on about 9.

    I think that the Lib Dems have accepted that they will probably lose all their seats apart from possibly 1 in the South East.

  40. The Lib Dems will still manage to spin that as a victory because everyone was predicting they’d lose all their seats, and Clegg will somehow manage to cling on for another year.

  41. Is there a noticeable splitting of tickets especially Ukip/Tory?

  42. Lab 3
    Ukip 3
    Con 2

  43. I think the way seats get calculated under the current system it is almost impossible to calculate who would get what correctly the really interesting thing is the vote shares…

    Mrnameless- I totally see what you mean about 17% for others being high but the greens should get about 7%ish the independence from Europe about 4% (based on mistakes on UKIP supporter papers which will also damage the UKIP share) and English dems, scots and welsh nats and some of the minor parties should make up the rest

    I think there is potential for UKIP to hit 30% but I think high twenties with lab and cons both fighting for second with 25 ish is a possibility and what I think will happen.

  44. The YouGov poll puts the LibDems down on 6% in the NW. Well short of the 8.5% Chris Davies MEP would need to hang on.

  45. CT,

    I think AIFE will struggle to get even 1% of votes to be honest. It’s easy to assume people will accidentally vote for them but is that really that likely? We haven’t seen massive vote shares for the Socialist Labour Party or the continuing Liberals based on that idea.

  46. Perhaps the major question here is whether UKIP get one more seat or two.

    Griffin looks likely to lose his seat. The LibDem seat may well be in the balance.

    I am glad to see the back of Robert Atkins, who appears to be retiring. The way he pipped Ronald Atkins in Prestion North in 1979 is an enduring blot on his career. His presence at the top of the Tory list last time is an examp[le of the lack of democracy in the Closed List system whereby it is effectively impossible to vote out major party candidates at the head of their list.

    If the Greens hold their vote together, might they win a seat for want of anybody better?

  47. FS – I agree re Atkins. I think the LibDems, BNP & Greens will all fall short of the 8.5% needed this time.

  48. Compared to the other northern regions, Chris Davies should be able to clinch one seat for the Lib Dems here. While their support has fallen in e.g. Liverpool and Manchester, they seem to have enough support in places where they have safe/semi-marginal seats in Parliament. If enough voters from e.g. Cheadle Hulme, Southport and Kendal turn out for the Lib Dems it could just about salvage it for them.

  49. Neil – even if every LibDem GE voter from those 3 Parliamentary seats turned out for them they’d still be only halfway to a seat here. Plus their vote hasn’t just collapsed in cities, but in eg Rochdale, St Helens etc also and those areas weren’t voting in locals in 2009. Plus a dozen who stood for LibDems then are standing for UKIP this time. I make Davies’ task near impossible. He should manage 6% though.

  50. “Labour will be in the mid twenties, UKIP will be in the mid thirties, and the Tories will be in the high teens. The Lib Dems will finish up on around 7 nationally, with the Greens on about 9.”

    Looks very plausible to me.

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