LAKES

64. Westmorland 71,549: current Westmorland & Lonsdale minus the parts in traditional Lancashire ‘north of the sands’; the parts of Penrith & the Border in traditional Westmorland. About as faithful to the traditional boundaries of Westmorland as I can manage. Semi-safe LD

65. Barrow in Furness 78,039: current Barrow & Furness plus Lancastrian parts of Westmorland & Lonsdale. The northerly most seat in traditional Lancashire. The pre-1983 name is readopted. Ultra-marginal Con

66. West Cumberland 76,839: the coastal parts of the current Workington and Copeland constituencies as far north as Workington. Safe Lab

67. Mid-Cumberland 71,445: Penrith & the Border less the Border and any bits in the traditional county of Westmorland; the inland wards of the Workington and Copeland constituencies and the Cumberland coast north of Workington. . Safe Con

68. Carlisle 76,825: current Carlisle constituency; the Border part of Penrith and the Border. The constituency is now coterminous with the Carlisle borough. Semi-safe Con

Lancs
Maybe a few typos on your part
“West Lancashire 71,897: current West Lancashire plus the ward of Rufford. Semi-safe Con”

Adding Rufford reduces Labs majority of over 8,000 by about 500 votes, given the way the seats trending a lil bit optimistic calling the seat semi safe Con don’t you think 😉

Also ” Crosby 76,378: current Sefton Central plus Victoria from Bootle. Reunites core Crosby. The constituency is renamed to reflect this. Semi-safe Lab”

Lab majority of nearly 12,000 and you’ve added a ward that INCREASES said majority by another 2,500 or so and again given the way the seats trending only “semi safe” for Lab XD Sorry had to point it out.

In all seriousness your Liverpool West Derby seat is fine, Fazarkerly isn’t a tack on at all, maybe its cos I’ve spent my whole life crossing the East Lancs but the other side feels just as much a part of Liverpool as anywhere else.

Irrelevant side note the McDonalds on the East Lancs is the one I go to whenever the mood hits me and I’ve had more birthdays as a kid in the nearby showcase cinema than I can remember…totally pointless info but there you have it XD

Sorry I meant semi-safe Lab in West Lancashire and even I am struggling to keep pace with the scale of political change in Crosby!

Nothing wrong with a bit of pointless info- adds colour to what we do 🙂

Lol glad you approve 🙂

Also not sure if you noticed but I made a few running comments as you were posting each bit of your plan, just making sure you saw so I don’t bombard you with the same points.

Thought it would probably be for the best that instead of flooding all the threads with BR related stuff we limit them to the appropriate EU region page.

I’d like to begin by saying I was right on “Morecambe and Lancaster”
Liverpool is actually pretty decent
And the new Ribble Valley is out and out hilarious. I suspect they may have been on meth when they came up with that one

Good news for them there though it could have been better, the BC’s last Wirral Deesdie would have been kinder for them.

Labour probably have lost their chance at winning Southport now having picked up the rural Lancashire wards, half of Formby would have been better for them.

Sefton Central’s claim to fame (being the seat with the highest % of owner occupiers) looks even more secure having picked up Ainsdale.

Tory success in Southport though comes at a price, I believe the new South Ribble will be an ultra marginal?

Indeed and given its traditionally pretty strong for the Libs one wonders had the Libs there backed the Tories instead…

Probably not, certainly makes no difference to them these days. In fact I’m pleasantly surprised at the NW as a whole, seems pretty Labour friendly for the most part except Cheshire and Cumbria.

Whatever their partisan effect there are some absolutely woeful proposals in the North West. The Eddisbury & Northwich and Weaver Vale proposals are terrible for reasons I will set out in due course. And don’t even get me started on Stockport.

I agree I thought Cheshire was something of a farce to be honest, that new Weaver Vale stretching from East Runcorn down so the border with Staffordshire its just gross.

The 14 unchanged seats in the North West, all Labour held:

Blackley & Broughton
Chorley
Garston & Halewood
Knowsley
Leigh
Makerfield
Manchester Gorton
Manchester Withington
Salford & Eccles
St Helens North
St Helens South & Whiston
Wigan
Worsley & Eccles South
Wythenshawe & Sale East

Stephen Woolfe has resigned from UKIP

It will be interesting to see if any others follow… with all the bad blood in the party it is possible more will leave. As far as the leadership is concerned all eyes will now be on whether or not Paul Nuttall runs this time… if he does I expect he’d win a landslide, if not then there is no clear favourite.

To reply to LO’s comment on the Stockport thread (to avoid two threads on the same thing) even if Woolfe is still interested in joining the Tories I suspect that ship has sailed. The Tories aren’t going to admit somebody who has just been involved in a punch up. Other UKIP>Tory MEP defections must be possible though…

Well he was the victim.

Plus look at all of the weird and wonderful Cllrs & MEPs DC accepted.

In fact DC seemed to have a penchant for Asian Cllr defectors who later ended up in Court (12 from memory).

I totally sympathetise the man was punched not exactly gonna make you stay

UKIP LEADERSHIP
NUTTALL 1/8 (89% probability).

As long as he doesn’t withdrew he seems to be certain to win.

A very unusual thing in British politics – a leader of a major party with a genuine working class ENGLISH accent. His ascendancy is bad news for Labour in the north.

It’s an accent that isn’t everyone’s cup of tea though.

“It’s an accent that isn’t everyone’s cup of tea though”

Having canvassed Bromley under William Hague, I can vouch for that.

I wonder if a Scouse accent might actually damage a leader in Manchester, or Yorkshire. That said I think Deepthroat’s probably right.

‘His ascendancy is bad news for Labour in the north.’

Very bad news

He might have once been a Tory but he looks and sounds like a Labour politician and whilst that might harm his chances amongst the Chelsea-supporting Southern UKIPpers that hate Northerners full stop, I doubt there will be too many of them and even if they are they will be cancelled by WWC Brexiters, many of whom will be lost from the Labour Party for good

The Local elections are now somewhat understandably being overlooked in terms of coverage, but these are the numbers of seats each Party is defending:

Labour 1,535 Cllrs
Cons 1,136
Ind 687
LD 484
SNP 438
PC 170
UKIP 146
Green 34
Others incl Residents’ 51
MK 4

To go back to some old (like, six months old) comments about former professional footballer & Hillsborough survivor Paul Nuttall PhD, it now looks a little strange that the Labour Party was ever so scared of him.

Of course, you could argue that he has done the only thing worse for them than taking Labour votes – he has released many of those votes back into the wild but they seem mainly to be voting for the Conservatives.

He is very slippery. Atm, I think it’s because he’s nervous and lacks confidence. Like a deer caught in the headlights, not knowing which way to turn.

Very chalk and cheese, him and Farage!

As expected Labour have won both mayoralties in this area

Paul Nuttall has apparently gone into hiding following yesterday’s local elections wipe-out for UKIP. Their Brexit spokesman Gerard Battern tells the BBC that even he doesn’t know where Nuttall is.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-39827141/where-is-ukips-paul-nuttall

Interesting use of the word, ‘selected’ by Saj Karim MEP.

He was, of course, the LibDem MEP who defected and as such Conservative members under DC were given no vote, as he was regarded by CCHQ as a “sitting Conservative MEP.”

HH – I assume this was the case again re sitting MEP for selections in 2019?