Verification (face up as opposed to face down in postal vote verification) takes place from tonight – and yes different areas begin at different times as with the locals – but counting on Sunday.

shevii – yes we have results by council area in the North West. The EU Nationals’ problem was that a two stage process was introduced and so registering is now longer sufficient – they also have to sign a declaration to vote here or their home nation.

It’s very difficult to form an opinion on turnout based on twitter.

Possibly people just not knowing what to compare it with (eg local v GE) or not seasoned observers or because they have an angle which for some reason they think will help their cause (for the short period until they get a real result).

However the general consensus as far as I can tell seems to be that North West was better than usual and compares favourably to the mixed reports back from other regions.

No-one seems to have differentiated between towns and cities but it feels like the Robinson factor may have had some effect on turnout- just not clear yet in what way.

Be good for more informed information to judge.

Shevii – I saw that Cllr Nick Small (Labour’s election guru in Lpool) said the 8th seat was between Lab v Green v LD V Robinson and he remembers the 2009 NW Euros when the BNP got it.

I also saw that HNH’s Nick L was saying, ‘get 10 people out to vote cos Tommy will need an extra one then.’ That actually made me think how easy it is for TR to be elected, ie I spent my lunch opposite a poling station and whilst it’s deeply prejudicial I simply imagined how many looked like his voters and it was certainly 10%+ and I wasn’t even in a ‘rough area.’

shevii – Turnout figures so far are lower than predicted:

Bath 44%
Copeland 31%
Gibraltar 40%
Harlow 30%
Lincoln 32%
Merthyr T 29%
Middlesbrough 26%
Plymouth 35%
Southend 33%
Wyre F 32%

Roughly the same as 2009 ie 2014 had Locals the same day.

Also in the couple of local ward by-elections today there were swings away from the main parties towards Inds:

Resolven ward, Neath PT:

Ind 699
Lab 293
PC 121
Con 34
LD 23

Ind Gain from Lab (swing 20% Lab to Ind).

In Tendring, 2 Inds easily beat Cons making the council makeup now: Cons 16, Ind 8, Lab 6, UKIP 5, Tendring First 3, Residents 3, LD 2, Foundation 1.

What jumps out to me is that the remain-leaning areas are 10 points higher than their leave counterparts.

Overall, turnout is very disappointing, though.

More
Verification in Central Park is complete. Wigan turnout 28.4% Leigh 28.5% Makerfield 26.8%. Thank you for voting.

@ Lancs

I just can’t see how Nick Small could possibly have narrowed it down to 4 at this stage. Looks like Wigan is the only council to verify overnight, so the only possible place where information could come from and even then very soft information.

At the very least you would need one town and one city.

The turnout across the uk seems to have risen the Lib Dems have a strong base already – while dropping in wwc areas. Prehaps Lib Dems will get 20%

Wigan turnout was down 0.5% so broadly unchanged. Just getting the feeling remain area turnouts are better than leave areas but it’s not landslide changes and probably will depend on those splits in the remain vote and whether they have largely gone to Lib Dem.

Suspect there is a good chance Labour will finish 3rd in vote share and that Yougov was right but Labour could still get 2nd on seats nationally.

Other NW turnouts

South Lakeland 52.9%
Rochdale 30%
Cheshire West & Chester 34.9%
Carlise 33.85%
Copeland 31.1%

Look at that turnout in South Lakeland – Lib Dems did well there in 2014 and it has risen again.

The BXP haven’t exactly been managing expectations so anything less than a huge win for them is going to look disappointing.

@ Andrea

You sure about South Lakeland as a spreadsheet I am looking at says 45.0%.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWoVoHjcH_uLaqHP7VyQm7UOl4nMHjA3rQnpF0i4QqU/edit#gid=0

Carlisle slightly down, Chester a bit up, Rochdale a bit down, Copeland down. South Lakeland would be about the same but if your figure is right then a good bit up from 44.6%

The most middle class of the ones mentioned the only where turnout is up.

Shevii, you are right. It is 45.04% turnout. 52.9% was the Remain share in the Referendum. I misread

There are reports of a high turnout in central Edinburgh from former SNP MSP Marco Biagi possibly reaching Holyrood levels. That could benefit LDs and Greens (and possibly SNP in that area)

Also reports of a 48% turnout in Cambridge.

Very interesting. Middle class Remainers making their voices heard in some places.

PT – true, although turnout in middle class areas is ALWAYS higher than WWC ones. All that happened in the Ref is that WWC turnout increased, but it still didn’t level that gap.

shevii – we have had I think 8 NW Councils verifying, but I assume the Lab Cllr was doing so from canvassing and/or postal vote returns ie that 8% is all TR needs.

I voted late yesterday after 9pm, as I didn’t land back into Gatwick until 7.30. Polling station was busy but the age profile was older than I would expect at that time of night, a lot of retired people rather than being dominated by commuters. I conclude that even in my slightly Remain-leaning district it’s quite probable that the turnout skewed a bit towards the Brexit party.

@ Lancs

Don’t you have any gossip from North West?

I’ve not heard anything at all but hearing nothing suggests to me that Robinson probably isn’t close otherwise someone somewhere would be in a funk. Obviously large section of North West haven’t done their verification but enough areas have to get some sort of picture.

Shevii – I do but only rumour. Most Mets haven’t yet sadly.

The facts I have are that areas where Robinson held events have seen an increased turnout (up in Preston, Barrow, Blackpool, Wigan) – but clearly that could be due to both for and antis turning out.

However, there’s a beginning trend that ethnic minority areas have seen a fall in turnout (Rochdale, Rossendale, Chorley, parts of Bury). This is also the case in Tower Hamlets – so perhaps Ramadan and the warm day was a factor.

Local elections in tower hamlets last time around – that will reduce turnout.

The North West had elections in 2014 too (it was 2013 that didn’t). 2014 was dull and chilly however. 2019 was warm and sunny – same as 2009 (in the NW anyway).

Plus most of London has seen an increase in turnout.

Tower Hamlets had both voter fraud and a very contested and bitter local election (50% turnout in 2014). The rest of London in 2014 didn’t have quite as bitter a local election.

2014 was the Mayoral election in Tower Hamlets. They got the highest turnout of any London borough in the Euro.

In 2009 they had a turnout of 30.6% (3 points lower than London average).

The estimated declaration times for each Region are:

Sunday

NE 10.30pm
Yorkshire 11pm
SW 11pm
East Mids 11.30pm

BH Monday

West Mids 12am
NW 12.30am
SE 1am
London 2am
Scotland & NI Monday PM

99% of Scotland will have counted Sunday night – it’s only the western Isles that refuses to count on a Sunday.

Any idea when Wales will declare?

Rumours that Brexit Party have easily won Sefton and the Tories are below 7% within the wards that make up Southport. Also that Tommy Robinson flopped in Sefton and on those figures will not be elected.

Brexit Party expecting 4/8 seats here, Lib Dems 2. Greens one and Labour perhaps just holding on for that last one.

Meanwhile Yaxley-Lennon has conceded he won’t win a seat.

Brexit: 541,843
Labour: 380,193
Lib Dems: 297,507
Greens: 216,581
Conservatives: 131,002
Ukip: 62,464
Change UK: 47,237
Robinson: 38,908
English Democrats: 10,045
UKEUP: 7,125
Aslam Mohammed: 2,002

Elected:

Claire Fox
Henrik Nielsen
David Bull

Theresa Griffin
Julie Ward

Chris Davies
Jane Brophy

Gina Dowding

Britain Elects
‏

Brex: 31.2% – 3 seats
Lab: 21.9% -2 seats
LDem: 17.1% – 2 seats
Grn: 12.5% – 1 seat
Con: 7.6% – 0 seats
UKIP: 3.6% – 0 seats

Labour leads in Liverpool, Knowsley, Manchester, Oldham, Blackburn, Preston

LD leads in South Lakeland, Stockport, Trafford

Brexit leads everywhere else

shevii – our initial thoughts were correct (Robinson polling 2% – 4%)

Although the range was huge (from 0.1% to 14% in wards I’m told).

These were his largest shares: Burnley 4.4%, Rochdale 4.1%, Salford 3.9%, Wigan 3.8% – all where he visited of course.

Knowsley was his top position, coming 5th.

Andrea do you mean Stockport or Southport?

Polltroll

Stockport council area

LD 29.1
Brexir 28.3
Lab 13.5
Green 13.5
Con 6.9

Oh yes, silly me, forgot Southport was part of Sefton rather than its own council area. Just assumed Lib Dems would do well there because it had a Lib Dem MP until recently.

It’s actually a place Lib Dems haven’t done so well recently tgough last night they might have

Sefton was

Brexit 29.8
Lab 26.4
LD 18.7
Greens 11.6

I did read that when they were counting it was easy to tell that the Lib Dems beat Labour in the wards that make up Southport.

@ Lancs

Yes. I think I got carried away with the possibility he was doing better than he actually was but to be fair neither of us had any significant data to go on but I’d still give him the prize for “best” campaign.

I assume there is no data at ward level (you suggested there might be?)

The regeneration of Northern towns issue hasn’t gone away and this has created a far right presence and a growing apathy among voters. It seems to be that whereas the youth voters in the cities are quite engaged in politics, the younger voters from areas of deprivation have just lost interest completely. To some extent this has always been the case but never so pronounced as now.

There’s a big section of society that has been ignored by political decisions for 40 years now- the possible exception being that they were subsidised by New Labour but without the genuine jobs and regeneration to go with it. Money went into education but it was too academically focused.

As someone who believes politics can change things it is very disappointing to have either self-disenfranchised people or people who respond to dog whistle politics.

shevii – yes, I’ve seen results by ward, ie the Brexit Party won every one in Wigan, beating Labour by 2:1.

I doubt most councils will publish these – although I hear some are making available the results by constituency (as they did in the NW in 1999, 2004 & 2009).

Re Robinson, apparently he got c 4% on the day but <1% in the postal vote (which mirrors the 1% in the rural areas he didn't visit). The highest % I saw was 10% in a Merseyside PD, so as suspected his support was v concentrated and polarised.

Robinson would’ve been far better off standing in the Peterborough by-election, which is genuinely local for him and has some of the ingredients he needs to do well.

Carpet bagging up to the north west in the kind of election where stand-alone independents always get swamped was a complete fool’s errand.