North West European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Theresa Griffin (Labour) 594063 33.9% (+13.5%)
2. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 481932 27.5% (+11.7%)
3. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) 351985 20.1% (-5.5%)
4. Afzal Khan (Labour) (297032)
5. Louise Bours (UKIP) (240966)
6. Julie Ward (Labour) (198021)
7. Sajjad Karim (Conservative) (175993)
8. Steven Woolfe (UKIP) (160644)
. (Green) 123075 7% (-0.7%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 105487 6% (-8.3%)
. (BNP) 32826 1.9% (-6.1%)
. (Independence from Europe) 25999 1.5% (n/a)
. (English Democrats) 19522 1.1% (-1.3%)
. (Pirate) 8597 0.5% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 5402 0.3% (-1.1%)
. (Socialist Equality) 5067 0.3% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Theresa Griffin (Labour) Educated at Lancaster University. Trade union organiser. Former Liverpool councillor. Contested North West European election 1999, 2004, 2009. MEP for North West since 2014
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Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
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Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
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Afzal Khan (Labour) Born 1960, Pakistan. Solicitor. Manchester councillor since 2000. MEP for North West since 2014. Awarded the CBE for services to race relations.
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Louise Bours (UKIP) Educated at Mountview Conservatoire for the Performing Arts. Singer and actor. Former Congleton councillor. Contested Cheshire Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014
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Julie Ward (Labour) Born 1957, Ripon. Educated at Newcastle University. Ran a social enterprise providing services for people with mental health problems. MEP for North West since 2014
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Sajjad Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for the North West since 2004.. Originally elected as a Liberal Democrat, he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
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Steven Woolfe (UKIP) Educated at Aberystwyth University. Barrister. Contested City and East 2012 London Assembly election, Greater Manchester Police Commissioner election 2012. MEP for North West since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Robert Atkins (Conservative) 423174 25.6% (+1.5%)
2. Arlene McCarthy (Labour) 336831 20.4% (-6.9%)
3. Paul Nuttall (UKIP) 261740 15.8% (+3.7%)
4. Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) 235639 14.3% (-1.6%)
5. Saj Karim (Conservative) (211587)
6. Brian Simpson (Labour) (168416)
7. Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) (141058)
8. Nick Griffin (BNP) 132194 8% (+1.6%)
. (Green) 127133 7.7% (+2.1%)
. (English Democrats) 40027 2.4% (+0.8%)
. (Socialist Labour) 26224 1.6% (n/a)
. (Christian) 25999 1.6% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 23580 1.4% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 8783 0.5% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 6980 0.4% (n/a)
. Francis Apaloo (Independent) 3621 0.2% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
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Robert Atkins (Conservative) Born 1946, London. Educated at Highgate School. Haringey councillor 1968-1977. MP for Preston North 1979-1983, South Ribble from 1983-1997. Knighted in 1997. MEP for North West England since 1999. Minister of Transport 1989-1990, Minister of Sport 1990-1992, Minister of State at Northern Ireland Office 1992-1994, Minister of State, Environment 1994-1995.
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Arlene McCarthy (Labour) Born 1960, Belfast. Formerly a European liasion officer for Kirkless council. MEP since 1994.
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Paul Nuttall (UKIP) Borm 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Deputy leader of UKIP since 2010. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009
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Chris Davies (Liberal Democrat) Born 1954, Lytham St Annes. Educated at Cheadle Hulme School and Cambridge University. MP for Littleborough and Saddleworth 1995-1997. Contested Oldham East and Saddleworth 1997. MEP for the North West since 1999. Former leader of the Liberal Democrat group in the European Parliament, he stepped down in 2008 after being criticised over a reply to a constituent that accused her of racism. 
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Saj Karim (Conservative) Born 1970, Blackburn. Solicitor. Pendle councillor 1994-2001 for the Liberal Democrats. MEP for North West England since 2004, orginally elected as a Liberal Democrat he defected to the Conservatives in 2007.
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Brian Simpson (Labour) Born 1953, Leigh. Former PE teacher. Former Warrington councillor and Merseyside county councillor. MEP for Cheshire East 1989-1999, MEP for North-West 1999-2004 when he lost his seat. He returned to the European Parliament in 2006 following the resignation of Terry Wynn.
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Jacqueline Foster (Conservative) Born 1947, Liverpool. Educated at Prescot Girls Grammar. Aviation consultant and former air hostess. Contested Newham South 1992, Peterborough 1997. MEP for the North West 1999-2004 and since 2009
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Nick Griffin (BNP) Born 1959, London. Educated at Woodbridge School and Cambridge University. Chairman of the BNP. Former publicity officer and Parliamentary candidate for the National Front before leaving the party in 1989. Joined the BNP in 1995 and edited BNP magazines Spearhead and The Rune. In 1998 he was prosecuted for incitement to racial hatred in reation to an issue of The Rune that denied the holocaust. He was again arrested for incitement to racial hatred in 2004 in relation to a speech he made criticising Islam which was recorded by the BBC, he was subsequently found not guilty at trial. Chairman of the BNP since 1999 he has pursued a strategy of giving the BNP a less overtly racist and extremist image. Contested North West Region 2004 European elections. Contested South Wales West in 2007 Welsh assembly elections. Contested Croydon North-West by-election 1981, Croydon North-West 1983 for the National Front. West Bromwich West by-election 2000, Oldham West & Royton 2001, Keighley 2005, Barking 2010 for the BNP.


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Comments - 394 Responses on “Europe North West”
  1. Verification (face up as opposed to face down in postal vote verification) takes place from tonight – and yes different areas begin at different times as with the locals – but counting on Sunday.

    shevii – yes we have results by council area in the North West. The EU Nationals’ problem was that a two stage process was introduced and so registering is now longer sufficient – they also have to sign a declaration to vote here or their home nation.

  2. It’s very difficult to form an opinion on turnout based on twitter.

    Possibly people just not knowing what to compare it with (eg local v GE) or not seasoned observers or because they have an angle which for some reason they think will help their cause (for the short period until they get a real result).

    However the general consensus as far as I can tell seems to be that North West was better than usual and compares favourably to the mixed reports back from other regions.

    No-one seems to have differentiated between towns and cities but it feels like the Robinson factor may have had some effect on turnout- just not clear yet in what way.

    Be good for more informed information to judge.

  3. Shevii – I saw that Cllr Nick Small (Labour’s election guru in Lpool) said the 8th seat was between Lab v Green v LD V Robinson and he remembers the 2009 NW Euros when the BNP got it.

    I also saw that HNH’s Nick L was saying, ‘get 10 people out to vote cos Tommy will need an extra one then.’ That actually made me think how easy it is for TR to be elected, ie I spent my lunch opposite a poling station and whilst it’s deeply prejudicial I simply imagined how many looked like his voters and it was certainly 10%+ and I wasn’t even in a ‘rough area.’

  4. shevii – Turnout figures so far are lower than predicted:

    Bath 44%
    Copeland 31%
    Gibraltar 40%
    Harlow 30%
    Lincoln 32%
    Merthyr T 29%
    Middlesbrough 26%
    Plymouth 35%
    Southend 33%
    Wyre F 32%

    Roughly the same as 2009 ie 2014 had Locals the same day.

    Also in the couple of local ward by-elections today there were swings away from the main parties towards Inds:

    Resolven ward, Neath PT:

    Ind 699
    Lab 293
    PC 121
    Con 34
    LD 23

    Ind Gain from Lab (swing 20% Lab to Ind).

    In Tendring, 2 Inds easily beat Cons making the council makeup now: Cons 16, Ind 8, Lab 6, UKIP 5, Tendring First 3, Residents 3, LD 2, Foundation 1.

  5. What jumps out to me is that the remain-leaning areas are 10 points higher than their leave counterparts.

    Overall, turnout is very disappointing, though.

  6. More
    Verification in Central Park is complete. Wigan turnout 28.4% Leigh 28.5% Makerfield 26.8%. Thank you for voting.

  7. @ Lancs

    I just can’t see how Nick Small could possibly have narrowed it down to 4 at this stage. Looks like Wigan is the only council to verify overnight, so the only possible place where information could come from and even then very soft information.

    At the very least you would need one town and one city.

  8. The turnout across the uk seems to have risen the Lib Dems have a strong base already – while dropping in wwc areas. Prehaps Lib Dems will get 20%

  9. Wigan turnout was down 0.5% so broadly unchanged. Just getting the feeling remain area turnouts are better than leave areas but it’s not landslide changes and probably will depend on those splits in the remain vote and whether they have largely gone to Lib Dem.

    Suspect there is a good chance Labour will finish 3rd in vote share and that Yougov was right but Labour could still get 2nd on seats nationally.

  10. Other NW turnouts

    South Lakeland 52.9%
    Rochdale 30%
    Cheshire West & Chester 34.9%
    Carlise 33.85%
    Copeland 31.1%

  11. Look at that turnout in South Lakeland – Lib Dems did well there in 2014 and it has risen again.

  12. The BXP haven’t exactly been managing expectations so anything less than a huge win for them is going to look disappointing.

  13. @ Andrea

    You sure about South Lakeland as a spreadsheet I am looking at says 45.0%.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EWoVoHjcH_uLaqHP7VyQm7UOl4nMHjA3rQnpF0i4QqU/edit#gid=0

    Carlisle slightly down, Chester a bit up, Rochdale a bit down, Copeland down. South Lakeland would be about the same but if your figure is right then a good bit up from 44.6%

  14. The most middle class of the ones mentioned the only where turnout is up.

  15. Shevii, you are right. It is 45.04% turnout. 52.9% was the Remain share in the Referendum. I misread

  16. There are reports of a high turnout in central Edinburgh from former SNP MSP Marco Biagi possibly reaching Holyrood levels. That could benefit LDs and Greens (and possibly SNP in that area)

    Also reports of a 48% turnout in Cambridge.

  17. Very interesting. Middle class Remainers making their voices heard in some places.

  18. PT – true, although turnout in middle class areas is ALWAYS higher than WWC ones. All that happened in the Ref is that WWC turnout increased, but it still didn’t level that gap.

    shevii – we have had I think 8 NW Councils verifying, but I assume the Lab Cllr was doing so from canvassing and/or postal vote returns ie that 8% is all TR needs.

  19. I voted late yesterday after 9pm, as I didn’t land back into Gatwick until 7.30. Polling station was busy but the age profile was older than I would expect at that time of night, a lot of retired people rather than being dominated by commuters. I conclude that even in my slightly Remain-leaning district it’s quite probable that the turnout skewed a bit towards the Brexit party.

  20. @ Lancs

    Don’t you have any gossip from North West?

    I’ve not heard anything at all but hearing nothing suggests to me that Robinson probably isn’t close otherwise someone somewhere would be in a funk. Obviously large section of North West haven’t done their verification but enough areas have to get some sort of picture.

  21. Shevii – I do but only rumour. Most Mets haven’t yet sadly.

    The facts I have are that areas where Robinson held events have seen an increased turnout (up in Preston, Barrow, Blackpool, Wigan) – but clearly that could be due to both for and antis turning out.

    However, there’s a beginning trend that ethnic minority areas have seen a fall in turnout (Rochdale, Rossendale, Chorley, parts of Bury). This is also the case in Tower Hamlets – so perhaps Ramadan and the warm day was a factor.

  22. Local elections in tower hamlets last time around – that will reduce turnout.

  23. The North West had elections in 2014 too (it was 2013 that didn’t). 2014 was dull and chilly however. 2019 was warm and sunny – same as 2009 (in the NW anyway).

    Plus most of London has seen an increase in turnout.

  24. Tower Hamlets had both voter fraud and a very contested and bitter local election (50% turnout in 2014). The rest of London in 2014 didn’t have quite as bitter a local election.

  25. 2014 was the Mayoral election in Tower Hamlets. They got the highest turnout of any London borough in the Euro.

    In 2009 they had a turnout of 30.6% (3 points lower than London average).

  26. The estimated declaration times for each Region are:

    Sunday

    NE 10.30pm
    Yorkshire 11pm
    SW 11pm
    East Mids 11.30pm

    BH Monday

    West Mids 12am
    NW 12.30am
    SE 1am
    London 2am
    Scotland & NI Monday PM

  27. 99% of Scotland will have counted Sunday night – it’s only the western Isles that refuses to count on a Sunday.

  28. Any idea when Wales will declare?

  29. Rumours that Brexit Party have easily won Sefton and the Tories are below 7% within the wards that make up Southport. Also that Tommy Robinson flopped in Sefton and on those figures will not be elected.

  30. Brexit Party expecting 4/8 seats here, Lib Dems 2. Greens one and Labour perhaps just holding on for that last one.

  31. Meanwhile Yaxley-Lennon has conceded he won’t win a seat.

  32. Brexit: 541,843
    Labour: 380,193
    Lib Dems: 297,507
    Greens: 216,581
    Conservatives: 131,002
    Ukip: 62,464
    Change UK: 47,237
    Robinson: 38,908
    English Democrats: 10,045
    UKEUP: 7,125
    Aslam Mohammed: 2,002

    Elected:

    Claire Fox
    Henrik Nielsen
    David Bull

    Theresa Griffin
    Julie Ward

    Chris Davies
    Jane Brophy

    Gina Dowding

  33. Britain Elects

    Brex: 31.2% – 3 seats
    Lab: 21.9% -2 seats
    LDem: 17.1% – 2 seats
    Grn: 12.5% – 1 seat
    Con: 7.6% – 0 seats
    UKIP: 3.6% – 0 seats

  34. Labour leads in Liverpool, Knowsley, Manchester, Oldham, Blackburn, Preston

    LD leads in South Lakeland, Stockport, Trafford

    Brexit leads everywhere else

  35. shevii – our initial thoughts were correct (Robinson polling 2% – 4%)

    Although the range was huge (from 0.1% to 14% in wards I’m told).

    These were his largest shares: Burnley 4.4%, Rochdale 4.1%, Salford 3.9%, Wigan 3.8% – all where he visited of course.

    Knowsley was his top position, coming 5th.

  36. Andrea do you mean Stockport or Southport?

  37. Polltroll

    Stockport council area

    LD 29.1
    Brexir 28.3
    Lab 13.5
    Green 13.5
    Con 6.9

  38. Oh yes, silly me, forgot Southport was part of Sefton rather than its own council area. Just assumed Lib Dems would do well there because it had a Lib Dem MP until recently.

  39. It’s actually a place Lib Dems haven’t done so well recently tgough last night they might have

  40. Sefton was

    Brexit 29.8
    Lab 26.4
    LD 18.7
    Greens 11.6

  41. I did read that when they were counting it was easy to tell that the Lib Dems beat Labour in the wards that make up Southport.

  42. @ Lancs

    Yes. I think I got carried away with the possibility he was doing better than he actually was but to be fair neither of us had any significant data to go on but I’d still give him the prize for “best” campaign.

    I assume there is no data at ward level (you suggested there might be?)

    The regeneration of Northern towns issue hasn’t gone away and this has created a far right presence and a growing apathy among voters. It seems to be that whereas the youth voters in the cities are quite engaged in politics, the younger voters from areas of deprivation have just lost interest completely. To some extent this has always been the case but never so pronounced as now.

    There’s a big section of society that has been ignored by political decisions for 40 years now- the possible exception being that they were subsidised by New Labour but without the genuine jobs and regeneration to go with it. Money went into education but it was too academically focused.

    As someone who believes politics can change things it is very disappointing to have either self-disenfranchised people or people who respond to dog whistle politics.

  43. shevii – yes, I’ve seen results by ward, ie the Brexit Party won every one in Wigan, beating Labour by 2:1.

    I doubt most councils will publish these – although I hear some are making available the results by constituency (as they did in the NW in 1999, 2004 & 2009).

    Re Robinson, apparently he got c 4% on the day but <1% in the postal vote (which mirrors the 1% in the rural areas he didn't visit). The highest % I saw was 10% in a Merseyside PD, so as suspected his support was v concentrated and polarised.

  44. Robinson would’ve been far better off standing in the Peterborough by-election, which is genuinely local for him and has some of the ingredients he needs to do well.

    Carpet bagging up to the north west in the kind of election where stand-alone independents always get swamped was a complete fool’s errand.

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