North East European Region

2014 Election
2014 Results
1. Judith Kirton-Darling (Labour) 221988 36.5% (+11.5%)
2. Jonathan Arnott (UKIP) 177660 29.2% (+13.8%)
3. Paul Brannen (Labour) (110994)
. (Conservative) 107733 17.7% (-2.1%)
. (Liberal Democrat) 36093 5.9% (-11.6%)
. (Green) 31605 5.2% (-0.6%)
. (Independence from Europe) 13934 2.3% (n/a)
. (BNP) 10360 1.7% (-7.2%)
. (English Democrats) 9279 1.5% (-0.7%)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Judith Kirton-Darling (Labour) Born 1977, Tanzania. Educated at Sheffield University. Trade union officer. MEP for the North East since 2014
portrait
Jonathan Arnott (UKIP) Born 1981, Sheffield. Educated at Sheffield University. Former maths teacher. Contested Sheffield Attercliffe 2005, Sheffield South East 2010, South Yorkshire Police Commissioner election 2012. Contested Yorkshire region 2004, 2009 European elections. MEP for the North East since 2014
portrait
Paul Brannen (Labour) Educated at Walbottle High School and Leeds University. Head of England North and Central at Christian Aid. Former Newcastle councillor. Contested Berwick upon Tweed 1997, Hexham 2001. MEP for the North East since 2014

Full candidates for the 2014 European election are here.

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Stephen Hughes (Labour) 147338 25% (-9.1%)
2. Martin Callanan (Conservative) 116911 19.8% (+1.2%)
3. Fiona Hall (Liberal Democrat) 103644 17.6% (-0.2%)
. (UKIP) 90700 15.4% (+3.2%)
. (BNP) 52700 8.9% (+2.5%)
. (Green) 34081 5.8% (+1%)
. (English Democrats) 13007 2.2% (n/a)
. (Socialist Labour) 10238 1.7% (n/a)
. (No2EU) 8066 1.4% (n/a)
. (Christian) 7263 1.2% (n/a)
. (Libertas) 3010 0.5% (n/a)
. (Jury Team) 2904 0.5% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Stephen Hughes (Labour) Born 1952, Sunderland. Educated at Leeds University. Former local government officer. First elected as MEP for Durham and Blaydon in 1984.
portrait
Martin Callanan (Conservative) Born 1961, Newcastle. Former Gateshead councillor. Contested Washington 1987, Gateshead East 1992, Tynemouth 1997. MEP for the North East since 1999.
portrait
Fiona Hall (Liberal Democrat) Born 1955, Manchester. Educated at Oxford University. Former Parliamentary researcher. First elected as MEP for the North East in 2004.


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Comments - 108 Responses on “Europe North East”
  1. UK Independence Party are likely to gain the Libdem seat here, and possibly beat the Conservatives to second place. Labour will increase their vote share, but not by enough to take 2 of the 3 seats.

  2. Labour MEP is retiring.

    Candidates in their selection:

    Judith Kirton-Darlin (European TUC Confederal Secretary)
    Jayne Shotton (North Tyneside Cllr)

    Paul Brannen (2001 Hexham candidate)
    Nick Wallis (Darlington Cllr, third placed on 2009 list)

    Top place will go to a woamn (JKD favourite) and second spot to a man (Wallis favourite)

  3. Agree with Neil – UKIP are bound to overtake at least the Lib Dems, and probably the Tories, too, and Labour are unlikely to take a seat; they’d need to manage twice the Conservative vote.

  4. Labour doubling the Tory vote here is not out of question. It would need just a 5% swing compared to 2009. They were very close of doing it in 2004.

  5. I wouldn’t rule out 2 ukip 1 labour.

  6. What % would UKIP have to get to get 2 seats here?

  7. “What % would UKIP have to get to get 2 seats here?”

    they need to double the Tory vote (assuming Labour is ahead of Con and the LibDems are behind)

  8. They’d also need to be ahead of Labour, which doesn’t look likely.

  9. UKIP could come first in some regions. European elections (like Holyrood elections for the SNP) is where they will get their max vote.

    I also think its certain that the BNP will lose both their seats.

  10. If UKIP are still riding high in the polls and taking votes all-round, then yes, they will take votes disproportionately from Cons in Euros – as ideal for anti-govt protest vote plus Cons were top in 2009 so most to lose – BUT Labour probably won’t get as high as 2005 either in Euros. Conceivably you could get:

    Others: as 2009 or a little lower (with BNP losing votes and other parties gaining a little)
    UKIP 30% or a little higher
    Labour 30%
    Cons 10%
    Lib D 7.8%

  11. Of course if UKIP have subsided in national polls by then, they will mainly pull votes from govt parties, and Lab and WNVs in the N-E will resume normal service, eg Lab 35% etc.

  12. Conservative shortlist:

    Martin Callanan MEP (MEP since 1999)
    Ben Houchen (Stockton Cllr, stood in Middlesbrough byelection 2012)
    Andy Lee (N Yorks councillor, stood in Sheffield C 2010)
    John Sharp (Stood in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough in 2010)

  13. Other than UKIP (given the polls), I don’t think it is credible to suggest any minor party will be likely to increase vote share in 2014. 2009 was the perfect storm of conditions for minor parties. The only way any minor party will improve their vote share is by becoming significantly more popular, as UKIP has done; because the bonus received in 2009 by dint of being a minor party will largely evaporate.

  14. Labour party members I speak to are expecting that whoever gets most votes out of the UKIP and Labour will most likely get a second seat.

    Martin Callanan has done a lot to increase his profile and will get some recongintion/personal vote but the Labour view is that enough Tories will lend their votes to the UKIP to take him below 15% and the winner will get over 30%.

    Lib Den toast.

    It is difficult to predict the UKIP vote share as it was inevitable they would fall back in the polls post the boost Eastleigh and the Council elections but the euro Elections will inevitably raise their profile, bring out single issues voters and attract loaned votes (including from Labour)

    How many Romanians and Bulgarians actually come to the UK if meaningful figures are available by May could be a factor not just here.

  15. I strongly disagree with any suggestion that UKIP will come first or close here. They would need to increase there vote by 10% more than any Labour vote increase.

    Its almost impossible to imagine Labour doing as badly as in 2009 as that was a perfect storm with expenses. That scandal hurt the tories too we must not forget, so they might not do as badly as you might think.

    Finally its worth noting there are local elections in the mets, so more labour voters will turnout, that may have stayed away in 2009.

    I think on balance 2 Lab 1 UKIP

  16. At the moment I would think we could possibly save this seat.

    The North-East is not a strong UKIP area at all and probably appeals to WWC voters in somewhere like Hartlepool at least as much as wealthy rural tories.

    UKIP 30
    Lab 29
    Con 15
    LD 9
    Green 7
    BNP 4

    OTH 6

  17. “The North-East is not a strong UKIP area at all”

    And yet you believe UKIP will beat Labour in what is their strongest region in England? I highly doubt that myself. If UKIP are going to win the national popular vote it will most likely be asa a result of coming a good second to Labour in the northern regions and a good second to the Tories in most of the South (I could see us topping the poll in a couple of regions like the East and South West and maybe one or both MIdland regions). For this region I think County Durham Boy’s analysis and conclusion is spot on, though Labour’s second seat would likely be narrowly won over the Tories

  18. Will be interesting to see what % of the vote ukip gets in tynemouth.

  19. Well Pete, I genuinely think that you will do better than you think (as opposed to the standard ramping up of the opposing parties chances – I think labour will barely improve on 2009)

    Ill stick my neck out on something like

    UKIP 29
    Lab 21
    Con 20
    LD 9
    Green 7
    BNP 3
    SNP 3
    ED 2
    PC 1

    OTH 5

    Perhaps the NE prediction is, however, overly generous to UKIP, probably more like 25 here, with labour scoring a few points higher.

    My guess at regional winners:

    London – Labour
    South East – Conservative
    South West – UKIP
    East – UKIP
    East Midlands – UKIP
    West Midlands – UKIP
    Yorkshire – UKIP
    NE – Labour
    NW – Labour

  20. @Joe
    You reckon the Greens will gain 5 seats, I sort of agree- where would you say these will come from? Current estimates reckon they will only pick up 3 on a good day.

  21. @Joe Where have the 2 BNP gains come from when Griffin is probably going to lose their only seat? 😮

  22. Those are percentages for this region, aren’t they. Silly me :p

  23. Conservative List

    1. Martin Callanan MEP
    2. Ben Houchen
    3. Andrew Lee

  24. Labour list

    1 Judith Kirton Darling
    2. Paul Brannen
    3 Jayne Shotton

  25. UKIP candidates:

    Jonathan Arnott – Stood Sheffield Attercliffe 2005, Sheffield SE 2010, S Yorks PCC elections 2012
    John Tennant – Stood Gateshead 2010, assistant to Derek Clark MEP
    Richard Elvin – Stood Houghton & Sunderland S 2010, Middlesbrough byelection 2012, S Shields byelection 2013

  26. LAB 41.8 (2)
    UKIP 20.2 (1)
    CON 14.0 (0)
    LD 9.5 (0)
    OTH 7.6 (N/A)
    GRN 6.9 (0)

  27. Many of UKIP’s voters here will be Labour-inclined.

    Therefore Labour are unlikely to nearly double their share if UKIP also rise strongly.

    I think the situation here is similar to Wales – very difficult to see any change in seats.

  28. So maybe LAB 35 UKIP 26 or something?

  29. I think 2 seats for Labour is still possible even given the demographic of UKIP voters in this region.

    Many of the Labour voters UKIP is getting here probably didn’t vote Labour (or didn’t vote at all) in 2009.

    Looking at local by-elections this summer in Newcastle and Jarrow (both of them with UKIP as a strong second. In one case Lab 44 UKIP 27 and in the other contest Lab 50 UKIP 34), Labour share was up compared to 2008.
    As 2009 was even worse for Labour, I suppose Labour should increase from that base anyway.

    UKIP attracting Labour inclined voters would make this increase less impressive (so not back to 42% achieved in 1999). However, Labour at 30% is plausible (and it would be a weaking performance for them in NE). With Lab at 30%, Con need to be fall from 20 to 14% to give Labour the second seat (assuming UKIP are second somewhere in between).

  30. Yes I can see it’s possible with Lab at just over 30 and Tories down to about 14.

    I think we can agree though that Lab at 40 or over is not going to happen if UKIP are at 20+

  31. Yes, I’ll punt at Lab 35 UKIP 26

  32. Ukip got a lot of publicity in the South Shields by-election but still got only half Labour’s vote so predictions that they will win this region are wildly fantastic!

    The regions they are likely to win the South West, East Midlands, East in order of likelihood.

    Ukip will gain a seat in this region. They will need to get at least half of Labour’s vote or come second. They are likely to come second with a large share of BNP’s 2009 vote.

    The question is whether Labour will double the vote of the party in third place: Tories or LDs. I think this is likely especially if there are locals elections in T&W.

  33. “I think we can agree though that Lab at 40 or over is not going to happen if UKIP are at 20+”

    I strongly disagree with this.

    The Conservatives could fall from 19.8% to 12% or less – defections to Ukip and Labour.
    The Lib Dems votes could fall to 5%. They have a strong local presence in Newcastle but the Coalition government will unpopular with many NE voters who previously voted LD.
    The BNP vote will collapse and the Greens will also fall.

    So I can all parties other than Labour and Ukip getting 25%-30% combined, leaving 70% – 75% to be shared between Labour and Ukip. If Ukip get 25% Labour could gain 45%. I think Ukip’s vote would need to be over 30% (which is possible if turnout is really low but unlkely) to reduce the likelihood of Labour reaching 40%.

    The reason this looks unlikely is that you are using 2009 as a starting point but the turnout was only 30% so local elections in rural areas and who was motivated distorted 2009. There is a big difference between 2009 when Labour inclined voters were disillusioned (had been in government for a long time) and 2014 when Labour are the main opposition. This and local elections in the metro area mean that a different cross-section of the electorate will turn out.

    In the South Shields by election the Tories got 12% and LDs 1%. Interestingly the BNP still got 3% suggesting they may retain some support reducing the swing to Ukip.

  34. “The reason this looks unlikely is that you are using 2009 as a starting point but the turnout was only 30% so local elections in rural areas and who was motivated distorted 2009. ”

    This isn’t really much of a factor in this region (compared with say the West Midlands). If you take those areas which had local elections in 2009 and will not this year, they were not very different in their voting behaviour than the rest of the region. The Labour lead over the Tories was around 5% in both and actually the Tory share was slightly higher in the rest of the region than in Durham/Northumberland. Also turnout wasn’t all that different being 31% in Durham/Northumberland and 30% in the remainder of the region. The only area where local elections do appear to have boosted turnout in the European elections was in North Tyneside where there was a Mayoral election on the same day. Here it was 37.6% while in all other districts it was between 28% and 32% with the exception of Middlesbrough (way down on 22.6%) and Northumberland which was only just outside this range at 33.2%. As I’ve argued on another thread, the difference this effect makes is likely to be fairly minor in those regions where there is a differential electoral strength between those area with local elections and those without (such as Yorkshire, the West Midlands, the South West) but here it is likely to be virtually non-existant simply because there isn’t that differential

  35. “I strongly disagree with this.

    The Conservatives could fall from 19.8% to 12% or less – defections to Ukip and Labour.”

    Extremely unlikely.

    Most Tories who are amenable to voting UKIP in the Euro elections would already have done so in 2009.

    The polls show virtually no loss of support from Conservatives to Labour since 2010.

  36. So you dont think the fall in the Tory vote in the opinion polls will be reflected in European elections?

    I’ve probably overestimated the fall in Tory vote based on South Shields by election. 19.8% to 16% is more likely. But 16% was not enough in 2009 to get an MEP elected and I would expect Labour to double this and get 2 MEPs.

    There will further defections from Tories to Ukip. Ukip supporters will be more confident that their votes will not be wasted in a region with only 3 seats. And many right-wing Tories feel the Coalition is too influenced by the Lib Dems and are angry about Cameron’s support for gay marriage etc.

    A lower turnout of Conservatives voters now they are in Government can also be expected.

    The main swing will be from LD to Labour.i

  37. I think the Tories will be down a couple of points nationally, no more than that.

    Agree with your last sentence but there will be big geographical variation. In some places the LD vote is very sticky, in others it will collapse.

  38. I absolutely agree there will be big geographic variation in the Lib Dem to Labour swing but I think it is be very high in North East.

    The Lib Dem vote was high so they have more votes to lose and Coalition is unpopular. The collapse in Lib Dem vote in the S Shields and Middlesborough by elections shows this is likely next year

  39. Labour will win here, but UKIP won’t be far behind. I think that the Conservative seat is in play though, we have seen Labour’s vote go up disproportionately high here over the last few local election cycles.

    LAB 1 (2), UKIP 1 (0), CON 1 (0)

    It really wouldn’t surprise me if the Lib Dems come in behind a few minor parties like the BNP or even the Greens, 3% at best for them realistically.

  40. Lib Dem candidates:

    1. Angelika Schneider – works for ALDE group in European Parliament
    2. Owen Temple – Durham cllr, stood NW Durham 2010
    3. Christian Vassie – stood York C 2010, former York cllr

  41. UKIP ranking

    1 Jonathan Arnott 9,683 votes
    2 Richard Elvin 4,025
    3 John Tennant 2,530

  42. I hate the closed list system especially in small constituencies like this, one party can get 40% another 22% and receive the same representation.

  43. The make up of the NE after the Euro elections could go several ways.

    Labour will see a considerable surge, largely at the expense of the Lib Dems.

    I predict a strong 2nd place for UKIP. The North East (save for Hexham and a few other parts) aren’t going to hand their votes over to the Tories, yet there’s all likelihood that UKIP could be the closest opposition to Labour from now on. Strong showings at the Middlesborough and South Shields by-elections demonstrated this.

    If Labour had the kind of poll lead Blair enjoyed in 96 or so, this would have been a clean sweep.

    Right now I’m torn between 2 LAB, 1 UKIP; or 1 LAB, 1 UKIP, 1 CON.

  44. *Actually, make that ‘could go at least two ways.’

  45. 2 LAB
    1 UKIP

    This will be very tight between Labour and UKIP. I expect that Labour will win, but by no more than 5% here. The Lib Dems and Conservatives are surely out of contention, making the race for the lead between Labour and UKIP. I expect that Labour will come top here, but if UKIP do really well there is a very slim chance of them taking the 2 seats with Labour taking 1. I doubt that such a scenario will occur though.

  46. Yes, 2 Lab, 1UKIP is the result.

  47. AIFE: 13,934
    BNP: 10,360
    Conservative: 107,733
    EDs: 9,279
    Green: 31,605
    Labour: 221,988
    LD: 36,093
    UKIP: 177,660

    Lab 2
    UKIP 1

  48. Lab: 221,988 (36.47%)
    UKIP: 177,660 (29.19%)
    Con: 107,733 (17.70%)
    LD: 36,093 (5.93%)
    Green: 31,605 (5.19%)
    AIFE: 13,934 (2.29%)
    BNP: 10,360 (1.70%)
    Eng Dem: 9,279 (1.52%)
    TOTAL: 608,652

    Changes:

    Lab +11.5%
    UKIP +13.8%
    Con -2.1%
    LD -11.7%
    Green -0.6%
    BNP -7.2%
    Eng Dem -0.7%

  49. The Conservatives were only a couple of percent from retaining their seat.

  50. This is good news for us. I was thinking 2 seats was a bridge too far, and that it’d be one for the Tories as well, but pleased from my perspective with the results here.

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