Worthwhile remembering UKIP went as high as 38% in the polls at the last Euro elections but ended up on “only” 27%.

Prediction for the London region:

Lab: 2
Brex: 2
LD: 2
Grn: 1
Con: 1

If Change UK win an MEP anywhere, it will be Gavin Esler here. My current hunch is that they will fall just short.

In an election which has crazier polling than any I can remember, here’s yet another twist: the Lib Dems may yet come first in London:

https://mobile.twitter.com/thetorchsays/status/1129855367108800518

The forecast is dry and sunny for the whole of the UK on Thursday (as it was for the Euros in 2009).

As previously mentioned all but one Regions’ electorates are down on 2014.

Greater London’s is down 20,000, with the largest fall being down 8% in K & C.

Boston (East Mids) being down 6% does suggest that it’s a fall in EU Nationals and not just a fall in students in cities [which is the case in university halls’ wards – where Rolls fell 40% in 2015].

“The largest fall being in Kensington & Chelsea”.

Sadly, I imagine a chunk of that will be because a building housing several hundred people burnt down.

I wish people wouldnt read into cross breaks they are so unreliable

PT – hardly. K & C fell by 7,000 and I think there were only 250 on the Roll there. Hence why it took so long identifying who was actually living there (as opposed to who was registered there).

Grenfell victims were rightly entitled to be rehoused in the same locality after a period of temporary accommodation unless they chose otherwise.

Though this is such a compact seat they may have found themselves in eg Hammersmith or Westminster North.

Much of the drop in the electorate in KC will be EU nationals and continuing hollowing out of Brits through gentrification.

EU nationals may have opted in a greater than usual number to vote in their native country. Also because in many countries they were probably asked to opt one way or the other because the exetention to October was asked

Prediction: Lib Dems will do extremely well…much better than expected and will easily be in second place in terms of seats. Imo will get more than LAB here in London.

There is tiny chance they’ll get more vote share than the BXP

Nationally, I meanre the first sentence

Its actually harder for them to get more seats than labour than to poll more than labour

Is it? .OK. because of the spread of votes..? Maybe yet again, vote the L/Dems won’t be reflected in the number of representatives they’re given.

The LDs could.narrowly miss out in e.g NE and Wales.

Labour could be efficiently distributed e.g. narrowly hanging on to one in Scotland, eastern or even the southwest where it looks in danger.while the LDs are unlikely to get more than 2 in any region.

Early rumors are big wins for the Lib Dems in Islington and Camden (where Labour could be beaten by the Greens as well).

Labour are bracing themselves to finish 4th in London behind Lib Dems, Brexit, Greens

Lib Dems believe they have won here.

Declartion.
Lib Dems 3 seats
Lab 2 seats
Brexit 2
Greens 1

Tory and UKIp lose seats.

Good result for the Lib Dems. Rubbish for Lab, although.they might console themselves that it could have been even worse.

Lib Dem- 27.17%)
Lab – 23.96%
Brexit – 17.86%
Green – 12.45%
Cons – 7.94%
Change (5.25%)
UKIP- 2.08%

Tonight results in general show hard brexit is coming and that fact will kill Labour sadly.

This for me sums up what a comeback looks like. What a transformation for the Libdems, and in London of all places.

I mean, you have to be somewhat careful about how these results translate into a general election. Jeremy Corbyn is not about to be unseated just because Labour lost Islington in this contest.

Considering the Lib Dems used to be in Islington South, the greens being stronger in Islington North and the narrowness of the LD Islington wide victory Labour may well have won in Islington North.

Clearly nationally but especially in London lots of CON and LAB went over to LD.

An extraordinary achievement by Nigel Farage.

Further down the line, imo the only way now a GE takes place is a scenario where CON are in the lead comfortably in polling, support Hard Brexit and LAB agree to campaign on REMAIN.

Otherwise it’s realignment /creation of new Parties

And that polling shift is unlikely before an hard brexit actually occurs.

Do you mean “before a Hard Brexit line is taken up by new PM”?

“Tonight results in general show hard brexit is coming and that fact will kill Labour sadly.”

What’s the point in you posting the same Chicken Licken statement time and time again? I think we all know by now exactly what you think on this so why keep harping on…I can only conclude that you are trying to wind everyone up.

The vote share of Brexit party + UKIP was about 37% on the usual low turnout for a Euro election. The idea that that is some kind of a mandate making No Deal Brexit inevitable is horseshit. It was no more than modestly better than UKIP did in 2014 and you can tell that Farage was deeply disappointed not to have done better, as many of the polls indicated he would.

Your comments strongly imply that you do not like Brexit hence your defeatism is very frustrating. As Tristan says, there are many people especially on the left who share the same trait at the moment. It’s almost like you are wishing the worst on yourself. You will never get what you want by just sitting around moping.

Testing.

The London results were quite interesting in that although they lost in Islington and Camden, they won Redbridge and narrowly Croydon…less gentrified boroughs where the Tories used to be competitive. Speaks volumes that they did best in heavily bme areas having lost wwc areas.

I imagine the LDs and Greens did well in north Croydon but badly in the south, where the Brexit party will have done well.

BAME leavers, were always going to be a much tougher group for the Brexit Party, led by Farrage, compared to wwc leaver supporters. Equally Bame remainers in London didn’t switch to the Lib dems as much as white remainers in London did,

“I imagine the LDs and Greens did well in north Croydon but badly in the south, where the Brexit party will have done well.”

IIRC when the ward results (where available) were published for 2016 the North was Remain, though, like a lot of the unglamorous BAME areas (see also Southall, and unlike, say, Brixton) it was by no means crushing. And the middle class south (just like the south of Sutton LB…it was north Sutton wot won it for Leave) was also pretty Remain. The area where Leave really did well in LB Croydon was in fact New Addington, which shouldn’t really come as a surprise.

Top votes shares by party (I think this is correct but let me know if you spot a mistake!):

Brexit Party top vote shares where they got over 50%:
1)Castle Point – 58.7%
2)Boston – 56.1%
3)South Holland – 55.2%
4)Tendring – 54.3%
5)East Lindsey – 53.8%
6)Great Yarmouth – 53.0%
7)Rochford – 52.8%
8)Hartlepool – 52.7%
9)Fenland – 51.9%
10)North East Lincolnshire – 51.9%
11)Thurrock – 51.7%
12)Torbay – 51.6%
13)Basildon – 50.5%
14)Gosport – 50.4%
15)Cannock Chase – 50.3%
16)Mansfield – 50.2%
17)South Staffordshire – 50.1%

Top 10 Lib Dem vote shares:
1)Richmond upon Thames – 52.3%
2)Kingston upon Thames – 47.2%
3)St Albans – 45.0%
4)Cambridge – 43.5%
5)City of London – 40.5%
6)Winchester – 40.4%
7)Oxford – 40.3%
8)Vale of White Horse – 40.3%
9)Elmbridge – 38.9%
10)South Cambridgeshire – 38.1%

Top 10 Green vote shares:
1)Brighton and Hove – 35.7%
2)Bristol – 35.1%
3)Stroud – 28.3%
4)Exeter – 27.2%
5)Norwich – 26.0%
6)Sheffield – 24.8%
7)Cambridge – 23.6%
8)Hackney – 23.1%
9)Mendip – 22.8%
10)Oxford – 22.7%

Top 10 Labour vote shares:
1)Newham – 51.0%
2)Leicester – 47.0%
3)Blackburn with Darwen – 44.1%
4)Barking and Dagenham – 40.7%
5)Liverpool – 40.3%
6)Knowsley – 40.0%
7)Tower Hamlets – 37.9%
8)Slough – 37.7%
9)Manchester – 37.2%
10)Brent – 36.6%

Top 10 Tory vote shares:
1)Dumfries and Galloway – 21.1%
2)South Ayrshire – 20.4%
3)Perth and Kinross – 19.5%
4)Scottish Borders – 18.9%
5)Aberdeenshire – 18.0%
6)Hertsmere – 17.7%
7)Moray – 17.5%
8)East Renfrewshire – 17.4%
9)Angus – 17.2%
10)South Bucks – 15.2%

Top 10 Tory votes shares excluding Scotland:
1)Hertsmere – 17.7%
2)South Bucks – 15.2%
3)Harrow – 15.1%
4)Harborough – 14.8%
5)Wychavon – 14.8%
6)Hambleton – 14.5%
7)South Northamptonshire – 14.5%
8)Barnet – 14.4%
9)East Staffordshire – 14.0%
10)Daventry – 13.8%

Top 5 SNP shares:
1)Dundee – 46.1%
2)West Dunbartonshire – 45.5%
3)North Lanarkshire – 45.4%
4)Glasgow – 43.9%
5)Na h-Eileanan Siar – 43.9%

Top 5 Plaid Cymru votes:
1)Gywnnedd – 50.8%
2)Ceredigion – 37.2%
3)Isle of Anglesey – 34.7%
4)Carmarthenshire – 31.2%
5)Rhondda Cynon Taf – 21.9%

PS what happened to that Googlemap that had the ward results? Why does all the useful stuff disappear from the net?

”I imagine the LDs and Greens did well in north Croydon but badly in the south, where the Brexit party will have done well.”

@H.Hemmelig

I don’t agree Croydon North is very ethnic minority heavy thus that’s probably where most of the Labour vote came from. Croydon Central is much more white working class (New Addington in particular) and it voted Leave in the referendum thus I suspect it voted for the Brexit Party. Croydon South my contrast is more white middle class and it voted Remain thus the Lib Dems probably carried that.

Electoral Calculus does ward break downs

Top 10 Tory votes shares excluding Scotland:
1)Hertsmere – 17.7%
2)South Bucks – 15.2%
3)Harrow – 15.1%
4)Harborough – 14.8%
5)Wychavon – 14.8%
6)Hambleton – 14.5%
7)South Northamptonshire – 14.5%
8)Barnet – 14.4%
9)East Staffordshire – 14.0%
10)Daventry – 13.8%

Three of those: Barnet, Hertsmere and Harrow are quite Jewish areas…hence a Tory (or at least anti-Corbyn) and quite a Remain vote.

Change UK had I think their best result in Barnet as well.

The most interesting thing about the results was how uniform the brexit party was across london bar a few inner London boroughs where they were in single figures. e.g. they got 17% in Kensington and Chelsea and 16% in Richmond upon Thames.

‘Three of those: Barnet, Hertsmere and Harrow are quite Jewish areas…hence a Tory (or at least anti-Corbyn) and quite a Remain vote.’

Is this true? The most heavily Jewish parts of Barnet, Golders Green and Garden Suburb are also the most heavily remain and would surely have switched to the Lib Dems and CUK just as Jewish voters elsewhere in other places like Trafford, East Renfrewshire would have done.

Just as likely the Tories did better in e.g. Edgware etc although we don’t have ward data*.

* *We do know that Labour only won only 3 wards in Camden (Kilburn, Somers Town and Regents Park) which ties in with Labour’s EM vote holding up better.