Grenfell victims were rightly entitled to be rehoused in the same locality after a period of temporary accommodation unless they chose otherwise.

Though this is such a compact seat they may have found themselves in eg Hammersmith or Westminster North.

Much of the drop in the electorate in KC will be EU nationals and continuing hollowing out of Brits through gentrification.

EU nationals may have opted in a greater than usual number to vote in their native country. Also because in many countries they were probably asked to opt one way or the other because the exetention to October was asked

Prediction: Lib Dems will do extremely well…much better than expected and will easily be in second place in terms of seats. Imo will get more than LAB here in London.

There is tiny chance they’ll get more vote share than the BXP

Nationally, I meanre the first sentence

Its actually harder for them to get more seats than labour than to poll more than labour

Is it? .OK. because of the spread of votes..? Maybe yet again, vote the L/Dems won’t be reflected in the number of representatives they’re given.

The LDs could.narrowly miss out in e.g NE and Wales.

Labour could be efficiently distributed e.g. narrowly hanging on to one in Scotland, eastern or even the southwest where it looks in danger.while the LDs are unlikely to get more than 2 in any region.

Early rumors are big wins for the Lib Dems in Islington and Camden (where Labour could be beaten by the Greens as well).

Labour are bracing themselves to finish 4th in London behind Lib Dems, Brexit, Greens

Lib Dems believe they have won here.

Declartion.
Lib Dems 3 seats
Lab 2 seats
Brexit 2
Greens 1

Tory and UKIp lose seats.

Good result for the Lib Dems. Rubbish for Lab, although.they might console themselves that it could have been even worse.

Lib Dem- 27.17%)
Lab – 23.96%
Brexit – 17.86%
Green – 12.45%
Cons – 7.94%
Change (5.25%)
UKIP- 2.08%

Tonight results in general show hard brexit is coming and that fact will kill Labour sadly.

This for me sums up what a comeback looks like. What a transformation for the Libdems, and in London of all places.

I mean, you have to be somewhat careful about how these results translate into a general election. Jeremy Corbyn is not about to be unseated just because Labour lost Islington in this contest.

Considering the Lib Dems used to be in Islington South, the greens being stronger in Islington North and the narrowness of the LD Islington wide victory Labour may well have won in Islington North.

Clearly nationally but especially in London lots of CON and LAB went over to LD.

An extraordinary achievement by Nigel Farage.

Further down the line, imo the only way now a GE takes place is a scenario where CON are in the lead comfortably in polling, support Hard Brexit and LAB agree to campaign on REMAIN.

Otherwise it’s realignment /creation of new Parties

And that polling shift is unlikely before an hard brexit actually occurs.

Do you mean “before a Hard Brexit line is taken up by new PM”?

“Tonight results in general show hard brexit is coming and that fact will kill Labour sadly.”

What’s the point in you posting the same Chicken Licken statement time and time again? I think we all know by now exactly what you think on this so why keep harping on…I can only conclude that you are trying to wind everyone up.

The vote share of Brexit party + UKIP was about 37% on the usual low turnout for a Euro election. The idea that that is some kind of a mandate making No Deal Brexit inevitable is horseshit. It was no more than modestly better than UKIP did in 2014 and you can tell that Farage was deeply disappointed not to have done better, as many of the polls indicated he would.

Your comments strongly imply that you do not like Brexit hence your defeatism is very frustrating. As Tristan says, there are many people especially on the left who share the same trait at the moment. It’s almost like you are wishing the worst on yourself. You will never get what you want by just sitting around moping.

Testing.

The London results were quite interesting in that although they lost in Islington and Camden, they won Redbridge and narrowly Croydon…less gentrified boroughs where the Tories used to be competitive. Speaks volumes that they did best in heavily bme areas having lost wwc areas.

I imagine the LDs and Greens did well in north Croydon but badly in the south, where the Brexit party will have done well.

BAME leavers, were always going to be a much tougher group for the Brexit Party, led by Farrage, compared to wwc leaver supporters. Equally Bame remainers in London didn’t switch to the Lib dems as much as white remainers in London did,

“I imagine the LDs and Greens did well in north Croydon but badly in the south, where the Brexit party will have done well.”

IIRC when the ward results (where available) were published for 2016 the North was Remain, though, like a lot of the unglamorous BAME areas (see also Southall, and unlike, say, Brixton) it was by no means crushing. And the middle class south (just like the south of Sutton LB…it was north Sutton wot won it for Leave) was also pretty Remain. The area where Leave really did well in LB Croydon was in fact New Addington, which shouldn’t really come as a surprise.

Top votes shares by party (I think this is correct but let me know if you spot a mistake!):

Brexit Party top vote shares where they got over 50%:
1)Castle Point – 58.7%
2)Boston – 56.1%
3)South Holland – 55.2%
4)Tendring – 54.3%
5)East Lindsey – 53.8%
6)Great Yarmouth – 53.0%
7)Rochford – 52.8%
8)Hartlepool – 52.7%
9)Fenland – 51.9%
10)North East Lincolnshire – 51.9%
11)Thurrock – 51.7%
12)Torbay – 51.6%
13)Basildon – 50.5%
14)Gosport – 50.4%
15)Cannock Chase – 50.3%
16)Mansfield – 50.2%
17)South Staffordshire – 50.1%

Top 10 Lib Dem vote shares:
1)Richmond upon Thames – 52.3%
2)Kingston upon Thames – 47.2%
3)St Albans – 45.0%
4)Cambridge – 43.5%
5)City of London – 40.5%
6)Winchester – 40.4%
7)Oxford – 40.3%
8)Vale of White Horse – 40.3%
9)Elmbridge – 38.9%
10)South Cambridgeshire – 38.1%

Top 10 Green vote shares:
1)Brighton and Hove – 35.7%
2)Bristol – 35.1%
3)Stroud – 28.3%
4)Exeter – 27.2%
5)Norwich – 26.0%
6)Sheffield – 24.8%
7)Cambridge – 23.6%
8)Hackney – 23.1%
9)Mendip – 22.8%
10)Oxford – 22.7%

Top 10 Labour vote shares:
1)Newham – 51.0%
2)Leicester – 47.0%
3)Blackburn with Darwen – 44.1%
4)Barking and Dagenham – 40.7%
5)Liverpool – 40.3%
6)Knowsley – 40.0%
7)Tower Hamlets – 37.9%
8)Slough – 37.7%
9)Manchester – 37.2%
10)Brent – 36.6%

Top 10 Tory vote shares:
1)Dumfries and Galloway – 21.1%
2)South Ayrshire – 20.4%
3)Perth and Kinross – 19.5%
4)Scottish Borders – 18.9%
5)Aberdeenshire – 18.0%
6)Hertsmere – 17.7%
7)Moray – 17.5%
8)East Renfrewshire – 17.4%
9)Angus – 17.2%
10)South Bucks – 15.2%

Top 10 Tory votes shares excluding Scotland:
1)Hertsmere – 17.7%
2)South Bucks – 15.2%
3)Harrow – 15.1%
4)Harborough – 14.8%
5)Wychavon – 14.8%
6)Hambleton – 14.5%
7)South Northamptonshire – 14.5%
8)Barnet – 14.4%
9)East Staffordshire – 14.0%
10)Daventry – 13.8%

Top 5 SNP shares:
1)Dundee – 46.1%
2)West Dunbartonshire – 45.5%
3)North Lanarkshire – 45.4%
4)Glasgow – 43.9%
5)Na h-Eileanan Siar – 43.9%

Top 5 Plaid Cymru votes:
1)Gywnnedd – 50.8%
2)Ceredigion – 37.2%
3)Isle of Anglesey – 34.7%
4)Carmarthenshire – 31.2%
5)Rhondda Cynon Taf – 21.9%

PS what happened to that Googlemap that had the ward results? Why does all the useful stuff disappear from the net?

”I imagine the LDs and Greens did well in north Croydon but badly in the south, where the Brexit party will have done well.”

@H.Hemmelig

I don’t agree Croydon North is very ethnic minority heavy thus that’s probably where most of the Labour vote came from. Croydon Central is much more white working class (New Addington in particular) and it voted Leave in the referendum thus I suspect it voted for the Brexit Party. Croydon South my contrast is more white middle class and it voted Remain thus the Lib Dems probably carried that.

Electoral Calculus does ward break downs

Top 10 Tory votes shares excluding Scotland:
1)Hertsmere – 17.7%
2)South Bucks – 15.2%
3)Harrow – 15.1%
4)Harborough – 14.8%
5)Wychavon – 14.8%
6)Hambleton – 14.5%
7)South Northamptonshire – 14.5%
8)Barnet – 14.4%
9)East Staffordshire – 14.0%
10)Daventry – 13.8%

Three of those: Barnet, Hertsmere and Harrow are quite Jewish areas…hence a Tory (or at least anti-Corbyn) and quite a Remain vote.

Change UK had I think their best result in Barnet as well.

The most interesting thing about the results was how uniform the brexit party was across london bar a few inner London boroughs where they were in single figures. e.g. they got 17% in Kensington and Chelsea and 16% in Richmond upon Thames.

‘Three of those: Barnet, Hertsmere and Harrow are quite Jewish areas…hence a Tory (or at least anti-Corbyn) and quite a Remain vote.’

Is this true? The most heavily Jewish parts of Barnet, Golders Green and Garden Suburb are also the most heavily remain and would surely have switched to the Lib Dems and CUK just as Jewish voters elsewhere in other places like Trafford, East Renfrewshire would have done.

Just as likely the Tories did better in e.g. Edgware etc although we don’t have ward data*.

* *We do know that Labour only won only 3 wards in Camden (Kilburn, Somers Town and Regents Park) which ties in with Labour’s EM vote holding up better.

London, Westminster voting intention:

Lab: 47% (+8) – 8 on 2017
Con : 30% (+1) – 3 on 2017
LDEM: 15% (-4) -+ 6 on 2017
GRN: 4% (-1) + 2 on 2017
BREX: 3% (-3) + 2 on UKIP in 2017.

via YouGov, 28 Nov – 02 Dec
Changes with November

Labour seats in Danger in London

2017 gains (From most likely to be lost to least likely).
Kensington ( A certain loss for Labour )
Enfield Southgate (Labour are starting to worry about it)
Croydon Central (Labour rely on WWC votes in parts of this seat so not secure)
Battersea

2015 gains (All of these will probably be held)
Enfield North
Ilford North
Brentford and Isleworth
Bermondsey and Old Southwark
Ealing Central and Acton
Hornsey and Wood Green
Brent Central

Other Labour seats at some risk
Dagenham and Rainham
Erith and Thamesmead (I think Labour is going to lose both of these in upsets. )
Eltham (Will be tight – could be Recount territory. )

Tory seats at Risk
Richmond Park (Only Tory loss in London I think is likely to happen)
Chipping Barnet (Labour could gain this but I think they lose it by 1000-3000
Hendon (Labour lose by 2000-4000)
Chelsea and Fulham
Chingford and Woodford Green
Harrow East
Wimbledon
Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Cities of London and Westminster
Finchley and Golders Green

Lib Dems at risk
Carshalton and Wallington ( I think this is going Tory.)

I feel this overstates the volatility in the capital. The MRP had only three seats changing hands, and two of those had sub-100 majorities.

I think Dagenham & Rainham is the most interesting seat in the capital. Any geographers: how much overlap does it have with the council area of Barking & Dagenham? Feels odd that it could fall when B&D doesn’t have any Tory councillors at all.

Dagenham and Rainham is six of the seventeen wards in B&D. It also includes 3 wards from Havering.

The rest of B&D is in Barking.

It’s very leave and Labour still has some WWC voters there, same as Thamesmead.

I agree with Polltroll that BM11 is overstating the volatility in London. There are no outright obvious gains apart from Richmond Park (definitely LD gain) and Kensington (should be Con, might be LD with tactical voting). Dagenham and Rainham and Chipping Barnet are my two to watch. Theresa Villiers gets right on my tits.

I just mean the seats that could be at risk. London might well only have less than five seats changing hands.

BM11’s list looks pretty on the money for ‘at risk’ seats.

Ive just seen a labour target list produced by a London labour CLP and Erith is not even on it. Risky
Defence
Kensington
Battersea
Enfield Southgate
Dagenham
Croydon Central
Eltham

Target
Thurrock
Chipping Barnet
Hendon
Finchley
Putney
Harrow East
Chingford
City of London and Westminster
Uxbridge
Wimbledon.

If youve really been passed a list all these seats would take a smaller swing to gain than erith

UNS from the You Gov Poll would only cost Labour Kensington and Battersea and the Tories Richmond park.

Labour have invited Labour members to go out of London to campaign as too many campaign in London – 700 in putney last night.

Seats outside of London members are being invited to because they close
Target seats
Watford
Milton Keynes South
Milton Keynes North

Defences
Bedford
Peterborough
Ipswich
Canterbury
Coventry South
Stoke-on-Trent Central
Stoke-on-Trent North
Derby North
Birmingham Northfield
Lincoln
West Bromwich West
Wolverhampton North East
Wolverhampton South West

Labour’s blairte group, progress, emailed members to invite people to campaign in Croydon Central , Ilford North, Canterbury, Bristol North West,Wrexham, Vale of Clwyd ,Stoke on Trent North, Wolverhampton North East, Ashfield, Leicester West, Don Valley, Great Grimsby, Wakefield, Sedgefield , Wirral South, and Edinburgh South.

Momentum have been criticised for preferentially campaigning in seats with Momentum candidates, but it looks like Progress are doing exactly the same.

Very much so – through a few of these are more soft left like Rosie Dufield or Sarah Jones.

No overall change in London. The Tories traded Putney for Labour’s Kensington, and Richmond Park for the Lib Dems’ Carshalton & Walllington.

Not in seats but LAB vote share down significantly also in London.