Eastern European Region

2009 Election
2009 Results
1. Geoffrey van Orden (Conservative) 500331 31.2% (+0.4%)
2. David Campbell-Bannerman (UKIP) 313921 19.6% (0.0)
3. Robert Sturdy (Conservative) (250166)
4. Andrew Duff (Liberal Democrat) 221235 13.8% (-0.2%)
5. Richard Howitt (Labour) 167833 10.5% (-5.8%)
6. Vicky Ford Conservative (166777)
7. Stuart Agnew (UKIP) (156960)
-. (Green) 141016 8.8% (+3.2%)
-. (BNP) 97013 6.1% (+1.7%)
-. (UK First) 38185 2.4% (n/a)
-. (English Democrats) 32211 2.0% (+0.2%)
-. (Christian) 24646 1.5% (n/a)
-. (No2EU) 13939 0.9% (n/a)
-. (Socialist Labour) 13599 0.8% (n/a)
-. (Animals Count) 13201 0.8% (n/a)
-. (Libertas) 9940 0.6% (n/a)
-. Peter Rigby (Independent) 9916 0.6% (n/a)
-. (Jury Team) 6354 0.4% (n/a)
Current sitting MEPs
portrait
Geoffrey Van Orden (Conservative) Born 1945, Waterlooville. Former Brigadier in the Intelligence Corps. MEP for the East of England since 1999
portrait
David Campbell Bannerman (Conservative) Born 1960, Bombay. Educated at Edinburgh University. Former communications director and special advisor to Sir Patrick mayhew. Tunbridge Wells councillor 1992-1996. Contested Glasgow Rutherglen 1997, Warwick and Leamington Spa 2001 as a Conservative, North Cornwall 2005, Suffolk South 2010 for UKIP. Contested Highlands and Islands in 2007 Scottish elections. Contested UKIP leadership election in 2006, 2010. Deputy leader of UKIP 2006-2010. Rejoined the Conservative party in 2011. MEP for the East of England since 2009.
portrait
Robert Sturdy (Conservative) Born 1944, Wetherby. Educated at Ashville College, Harrogate. Former farmer. MEP for Cambridge and Bedfordshire North 1994-1999, East of England since 1999.
portrait
Andrew Duff (Liberal Democrat) Born 1950, Birkenhead. Educated at Cambridge University. Cambridge councillor 1982-1990. MEP for East of England since 1999. Awarded the OBE for services to politics 1997.
portrait
Richard Howitt (Labour) Born 1961 Reading. Educated at Oxford University. Harlow councllor 1985-1995. Contested Billericay 1987. MEP for Essex South 1994, for East of England since 1999.
portrait
Vicky Ford (Conservative) Born 1967, Omagh. Educated at Cambridge University. Contested Birmingham Northfield 2005. MEP for East of England since 2009.
portrait
Stuart Agnew (UKIP) Born 1949, Norwich. Educated at Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester. Farmer. Contested Mid Norfolk 2001, Norfolk North 2005, Broadland 2010.


.

Candidates announced so far for the 2014 European election are here.

Comments - 98 Responses on “Europe Eastern”
  1. Is Campbell Bannerman related to the famous Liberal political family?

  2. Richard, yes. David says Henry Campbell-Bannerman, that Liberal Prime Minister, was his great uncle.

  3. It is often written that HC-B was his grand-uncle. I have yet to see any evidence of this and the dates don’t add up.

    HCB had only one brother, James, who in turn had four children. The line of his only son, also James, is extinct, two of his daughters died unmarried leaving only the descendants of his eldest daughter, who married William Shaw Adamson.

    Some of the descendants of William Shaw Adamson have taken the name Campbell, so he could be one of those, but he’d have to be at least a great-great-great uncle for the dates to add up.

    Alternatively, HC-B’s sister Louisa also seems to have married a Bannerman and given the name Campbell-Bannerman to her descendants, though I think they do might have died out in the male line and no longer have any actual Cambell Bannermans.

    Basically he may very well be a relation of some sort, but it’s not clear what and it will more distant than great-uncle or he would have to be a much older man!

  4. Richard Howitt MEP reselected and will top Labour list.

    Shortlist for their new candidates

    Naseem Ayub (Luton Cllr)
    Bhavna Joshi (Central Suffolk and North Ipswich 2010 candidate, Stevenage local election candidate)
    Alexandra Mayer (National Policy Forum Rep, former Cambridge Labour agent, South Cambridgeshire local election candidate)

    Paul Bishop (stood in Suffolk South in 97)
    Sandy Martin (Suffolk Cllr)
    Chris Ostrowski (Norwich North by-election candidate)

    Second spot will got a lady here.

  5. I wondered what happened to Chris Ostrowski.

  6. Alex Mayer is the only candidate with a campaign website – http://www.alexmayer.eu

    To judge by the number and distribution of endorsements she’s got, she ought to top the women’s ballot by a pretty clear margin.

  7. Bhavna Joshi has also got a website – http://www.votejoshi4mep.co.uk

    She is also in the running for the top spot as she is the only female candidate that has all-round experience, having been a local Councillor, parliamentary candidate and current parish Councillor.

    Bhavna is the only one with a You Tube Channel, this lady knows how to communicate well – Bhavna Joshi1.

  8. Robert Sturby is retiring.
    Geoffrey Van Orden and Vicky Ford got re-selected by the Tory electoral college and so they are guaranteed the top 2 places on their list.
    David Campbell Bannerman failed to get the automatic re-adoption (he needed 60% of the electoral college largely made up by regional party officers and local associations chairman), so he will go to the all members vote along with the candidates to be ranked in the remaining positions.

  9. Being the Green’s strongest area outside of London, some swing to Greens from the Tories locally and LD=> Green/UKIP switching, I would expect at least one gain each for UKIP and the Greens. On a good day, the Greens might take the LD seat as well depending on how many none of the above votes they can get/if LD switchers go to Greens more than UKIP.
    [CON 2 UKIP 2 GRN 2 LAB 1]

  10. The result here will be (95% certain):

    UKIP: 4 seats (+2)
    CON: 1 seat (-2)
    LAB: 1 seat (0)
    GRN: 1 seat (+1)

    This election will practically be an EU referendum. I expect UKIP to gain over 30% nationwide, with Labour in the mid 20s and the Tories at just above 15%. I doubt that this result would be repeated in 2015 though.

    Interestingly, if UKIP gains some seats in the region in 2015 and their candidates are MEPs elected in 2014; there wouldn’t be enough people on their list to replace them. How would the MEPs be replaced in that case when elected as MPs?

  11. WindsofChange – UKIP got two last time (DCB defected), so a UKIP gain would be 3.

  12. Is 111 Bob but ramping up a different party?

  13. Not the same IP address

  14. Doesn’t mean that much — could be sitting in a cafe, pub, hotel, etc…

  15. Oh sorry didn’t realise that. Thanks Andy.

  16. Conservative candidates – Vicky Ford and Geoffrey van Orden guaranteed top 2 places:

    Vicky Ford MEP – MEP since 2009, stood Birmingham Northfield 2005

    Geoffrey Van Orden MEP – MEP since 1999

    David Campbell Bannerman MEP – UKIP MEP 2009-2011, Conservative MEP since 2012. Stood Glasgow Rutherglen 1997, Warwick & Leamington 2001

    Jonathan Collett – Director of Communications at Press Complaints Commission

    John Flack – stood Enfield Southgate 2001, Eastern England Euros 2009, Chair of a real estate investment company

    Cllr Tom Hunt – E Cambs cllr

    Gagan Mohindra- Epping Forest cllr, stood Tyneside N in 2010
    Margaret Simons – Regional Co-ordinator for Conservative Policy Forum in Eastern Region, ex Luton cllr

  17. Conservative list

    1. Vicky Ford MEP
    2. Geoffrey Van Orden MEP
    3. David Campbell Bannerman MEP
    4. John Flack
    5. Tom Hunt
    6. Margaret Simons
    7. Jonathan Collett

  18. I remember John Flack fairly well. The consensus is that he fought a very poor campaign against Stephen Twigg in 2001.

  19. Labour List

    1. Richard Howitt MEP
    2. Alex Mayer
    3. Sandy Martin
    4. Bhavna Joshi
    5. Paul Bishop
    6. Naseem Ayub
    7. Chris Ostrowski

  20. UKIP candidates

    Patrick O’Flynn – Chief Political Commentator for Daily Express
    Stuart Agnew – UKIP MEP since 2009, stood M Norfolk 2010, and candidate there for 2015
    Tim Aker – Head of UKIP’s policy unit
    Andrew Smith – Stood in Essex PCC elections
    Michael Heaver – Political commentator
    Andy Monk – Stood SE Cambs 2010
    Mick McGough – Stood Brentwood & Ongar 2010, and candidate there for 2015

  21. UKIP 27.4 (2)
    CON 24.7 (2)
    LAB 16.0 (1)
    GRN 14.2 (1)
    OTH 9.4 (N/A)
    LD 8.3 (1)

  22. I refer you to the comments Van Fleet made a moment ago (Europe South East thread). Perhaps you could explain why you think the Green vote is going to increase by 5% here when they are clearly going backwards in this region (they lost seats in Norwich, Cambridge and Watford in the recent county council elections)

  23. They will pick up some LD and Other votes- many more than in areas where Labour is dominant. Maybe not 5%, but I was playing with numbers. I am 90% certain though that the Greens will win a seat here however.

  24. Lib Dem candidates:

    1. Andrew Duff – MEP since 1999
    2. Josephine Hayes – legal service professional
    3. Dr Belinda Brooks-Gordon – Cambridgeshire cllr and psychologist
    4. Stephen Robinson – Essex cllr, Stood Chelmsford 2010, works in PR
    5. Michael Green – St Albans cllr, stood Clacton 2010
    6. Linda Jack – stood Luton N 2005, Beds Mid 2010, works for FSA
    7. Hugh Annand – stood Herts NE 2010, S Shields byelection 2012

  25. UKIP list
    UKIP list

    1 Patrick O’Flynn 22,610
    2 Stuart Agnew 21,441
    3 Tim Aker 6,841
    4 Michael Heaver 6,054
    5 Andrew Smith 3,475
    6 Mick McGough 2,517
    7 Andy Monk 2,374

  26. 4 UKIP
    1 CON
    1 LAB
    1 LD

  27. Sorry, 1 LD or 1 GRN

  28. Some of these look a bit optimistic. Have you envisaged the kind of percentage shares for each party which will deliver this outcome? I’m hopeful that we can win the popular vote in this region and therefore take the third seat. A fourth seat does not seem plausible at all. Even if we did accept that premise, then a second Conservative seat is surely more likely than a Green seat

  29. What has Richard Howitt acheived in his coming up to 20 years as an MEP? And one could ask a similar question about several of the other MEPs for this “region”.

  30. My prediction of possibly outcomes:

    Either –

    3 CON
    2 UKIP
    1 LAB
    1 LD

    (Essentially the same composition as in 2009, but with a large increase in UKIP’s votes, a fall in Tory votes, and Labour outpolling the Lib Dems).

    Alternatively there may be 3 UKIP MEPs and 2 Conservative MEPs if the former’s surge is big enough.

    Or (and this is considerably less likely than the previous two predictions) –

    2 CON
    2 UKIP
    2 LAB
    1 LD

    Again very unlikely, but if they manage to pull off very strong results in their Eastern target seats (e.g. both Norwich seats, Ipswich, Bedford, Stevenage) there’s a tiny chance to sneak in a second MEP.

  31. Very hard to predict with multi-party elections, and still waiting for any effect from the recent TV Clegg-Farage debate to become clear.

    On the basis of Labour and UKIP increasing their share, and Conservative and LD falling slightly I would make a guess at…

    UKIP 3 (+1)
    Cons 2 (-1)
    Lab 1 (no change) but more votes than LD. Bold?
    LD 1 (no change)

  32. It is clear here that UKIP will be on around 40% of the vote. I now think it is likely that UKIP will win 4 seats with the Conservatives on 2 seats and Labour on 1 seat

    There is a possibility that the Greens could take the final seat from the Conservatives but my gut instinct is that we will finish over 20% here which would probably deny the Greens of a seat.

  33. Most of UK First’s 38,000 votes should go to UKIP here.

  34. 4 UKIP
    1 CON
    1 LAB
    1 GRN

    Based on my canvassing returns last week I am quite confident here. This will be UKIP’s strongest region in the country, and they might not be that short of the 50% mark. I would give them a fifth seat but The Green Party should just edge ahead of them on the final quota. The Conservative share here will fall rather disappointingly, but many of these defectors will return to the Tory fold in time for the General election next May.

  35. The Greens are not far short of a seat here. However, for them to get an MEP in East of England they would be looking to have advanced on their 2009 share of the vote and I am not confident that this is happening, not least because the protest vote is concentrating more on UKIP this time.

  36. Frederic, the protest vote that went to the LibDems last time won’t go to them this time, and I’m not at all sure they will flock to UKIP. Similarly, the 0.8% that went to Animals Count last time can reasonably be expected to be more likely to go to the Greens than any other particular party.

    And the increase in vote share needed by the Greens could be as little as 0.3% if the other parties votes split in a particularly fluky way: Con 36.35, Lab 18.15, Lib Dem 9.05, UKIP 27.25 and Green 9.1% (others 0.1%) would give Con 3, Lab 1, UKIP2, Green 1 (just).

  37. Ben Foley – Others on 0.1%?! From 16% last time.

  38. What is this protest vote which went to the LDs in 2009? They didn’t exactly do well and they pretty much won their core support. What small protest vote they might have got would have come at the expense of Labour who formed a deeply unpopular government at that time and its therefore far more likely that they will go back to Labour than anywhere else. The party which did more clearly benefit from left-leaning protest votes in 2009 was the Green party whose vote increased more than any other party in this region. When you consider that this was accompanied by some very unlikely gains from Labour in the local elections on the same day (eg MIle Cross in Norwich) its clear that this increase came largely from disillusioned Labour supporters who are now very likely to return to the fold

  39. Lancs Observer
    Sorry, I realised that I should have left more than 0.1% for the others. I am assuming some of the BNP vote will have gone to UKIP, but assuming all the ‘others’ together total about 10.2%, then Con 32.7, Lab 16.3, LD 8.1, UKIP 24.5, Green 8.2 would actually give a very fluky Green gain, even with a reduced share of the vote.

    Pete, it might be inconvenient to your argument, but the LDs have traditionally picked up a significant proportion of their votes from the ‘plague on both your houses’ voters. They might not have done particularly well in 2009, but they got more than they are polling now (one of the few polls with a full 11 region breakdown has them on 6% in Eastern), which indicates that they DID win more than their core support 5 years ago. As I said, many will go to UKIP, but some will see UKIP as too right wing, who would still never consider voting Labour.
    And yes, Mile Cross division in Norwich was an unlikely Green gain in 2009, but that was in the context of Ian Gibson being forced to resign over the expenses scandal: and thus very particular Norwich North effects (when the whole of Norwich has only 2.3% of the regional electorate).
    The fact that the Green vote increased more than any other party in the region in 2009 does not mean it was just ‘left-leaning protest votes’. A good chunk of that was down to organisational improvements in the regional Green Party that enabled it to increase its vote by more than the GP did nationally.

  40. So, do we think UKIP should be equipped to take a 3rd seat here?
    We could be looking at something like:
    UKIP: 27%
    Conservative: 25%
    Labour: 14%
    Liberal Democrat: 10%
    Others: 24%

  41. Clive, yes, UKIP could take a 3rd seat in Eastern, but I think may need more than 27%, because there is every reason to expect that Greens will get more votes than LDs in Eastern, and if your figures are right, that would mean 2 UKIP, 2 Con, 1 Lab, 1 LD and 1 Green.

    My calculations suggest that in practice, with realistic ‘others’ share it needs close to 10% to earn each seat in Eastern (a lucky party might get a seat/seats for less than 10%/seat, an unlucky one might fail to get as many as 10%/seat would imply).

  42. 111, I just noticed you gave your prediction three times here. We get it. You think UKIP will basically win like a supermajority of the vote or something. Don’t have to keep repeating it.

    As it is, I’m sure it won’t happen. UKIP won’t go from 19% to like 60%. I do at least agree UKIP will come top.

  43. They don’t need anywhere near 60% to win 4 seats. Not much over 40% might do it depending how others are split.

    3 may be more realistic though.

  44. Yes, Far Easterner, UKIP _could_ get a 4th with around 34% PROVIDED LDs and Greens BOTH get less than 8.5% (the assumption for that to work would be all the parties even smaller than Green Party will total 15% without any getting more than 8.5).

  45. Ben – I think you’re clutching at straws here. Of course the Greens are no doubt extremely popular in pockets of Norwich and Cambridge – but this is by no means enough to compensate for the fact that East Anglia is not fertile territory for the bunny huggers. I very much doubt that they’ll win more votes than the Lib Dems here, and fully expect them to win the same number of seats as the English Democrats and Christian Party – i.e. none!

    I think we can all agree that UKIP are not going to win 4 seats, though.

  46. Clive,
    Green councillors also in Essex, Suffolk, St Albans, Watford (I’ll check, but I don’t think they are suburbs of either Norwich or Cambridge…).

    Greens need an increase of at least 1% across the region (or a very fluky result). You don’t think Greens will get that sort of increase, but polls like last night’s ICM, with Greens on 10% for European VI, make me think it is more than ‘clutching at straws’ to think that the Green Party will gain an MEP in Eastern, a region where it does better than it does nationally.

  47. I just don’t see the Greens putting out the sort of organisation they need in this area. In the last few years they’ve been if anything falling back in Norwich and Cambridge, both areas that should be strongholds for them. Not out of the question that they’ll get a seat, but I’d put it no more than a 1 in 10 chance.

  48. Fair enough FE. I still think a blowout on the level of 4 seats isn’t going to happen. 3 is indeed much more likely. I would venture that is indeed what’s going to happen.

  49. James,
    There have been Green Gains in other parts of the region, like Essex, Suffolk, St Albans….

    The Green organisation is very similar, or in better shape, across the region as a whole, than in 2009 when Green share increased 3.2%, more than it did nationally.

  50. Ben – I don’t deny that is one of the Green Party’s stronger electoral regions. It is also one of the stronger regions for the English Democrats for that matter..

    But the fact is that the Greens are polling consistently several points down now on where they were at the equivalent point in the 2009 campaign. The last two polls listed on this site attribute support of 5% for the Greens. Compare this to 2009, when they were well above 10% at this stage, even 15% in one poll.

    What you seem to be prophesying is that the Greens will increase support here, against a national trend of them falling back on their 2009 performance. I, frankly, do not see the evidence to corroborate this.

    Pretty certain, seats wise, it’ll be 3 UKIP, 2 Tory, 1 Labour and 1 Liberal Democrat.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)