Erith & Thamesmead

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11684 (27.4%)
Labour: 21209 (49.8%)
Lib Dem: 972 (2.3%)
Green: 941 (2.2%)
UKIP: 7368 (17.3%)
Others: 443 (1%)
MAJORITY: 9525 (22.4%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Bexley council area and part of the Greenwich council area.

Main population centres: Erith, Thamesmead, Belvedere.

Profile: An east London seat covering the northern part of the Borough of Bexley and Thamesmead, which straddles the boundary between Greenwich and Bexley. Most of the seat is post war, Erith having been massively redeveloped in the 1960s and 1970s and Thamesmead being built as rented accommodation by the GLC to decanter the residents from slum clearances in central London. Thamesmead was built on the former lands of the Royal Arsenal and Erith and Plumstead marshes - past flooding meant that the housing is largely medium or high rise concrete blocks, with the ground floors reserved for garages. The grim maze of concrete blocks was infamously used to film A Clockwork Orange. While more recent development in Thamesmead has been a mix of private and social accomodation, its grim reputation and poor transport links mean it is still an unfashionable area with some of the cheapest property in London. The seat includes HM Prison Belmarsh, built adjoining Woolwich Crown Court, which is commonly used for holding high security terrorist suspects.

Politics: A safe Labour seat, held by the party since its creation in 1997.


Current MP
TERESA PEARCE (Labour) Born 1955, Southport. Educated at St Thomas More School. Former senior manager at Pricewaterhousecooper. Bexley councillor 1998-2002. First elected as MP for Erith & Thamesmead in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 13365 (31%)
Lab: 19068 (45%)
LDem: 5116 (12%)
BNP: 2184 (5%)
Oth: 2743 (6%)
MAJ: 5703 (13%)
2005*
Con: 8983 (24%)
Lab: 20483 (54%)
LDem: 5088 (14%)
BNP: 1620 (4%)
Oth: 1477 (4%)
MAJ: 11500 (31%)
2001
Con: 8602 (26%)
Lab: 19769 (59%)
LDem: 3800 (11%)
Oth: 1180 (4%)
MAJ: 11167 (33%)
1997
Con: 8388 (20%)
Lab: 25812 (62%)
LDem: 5001 (12%)
Oth: 992 (2%)
MAJ: 17424 (42%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNA FIRTH (Conservative)
TERESA PEARCE (Labour) See above.
SIMON WADDINGTON (Liberal Democrat)
RONIE JOHNSON (UKIP)
ANN GARRETT (Green) Born 1942. Educated at Central School of Speech and Drama. Teacher and lecturer. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst 2005, 2006 by-election, Beckenham 2010.
GRAHAM MOORE (English Democrat)
SID CORDLE (CPA) Financial advisor. Former Sheffield councillor. Contested Sheffield Heeley 1983, Sheffield Hillsborough 1992 for the Conservatives, Sheffield Hallam 2005, Erith and Thamesmead 2010 for the CPA. Awarded the MBE in 1989 for political and public service.
Links
Comments - 13 Responses on “Erith & Thamesmead”
  1. Teresa Pearce reselected for Labour in Erith & Thamesmead:

    https://twitter.com/tpearce003/status/361895169894785025

  2. why is it described as both a semi marginal and a safe labour seat

  3. I agree with Orangina. I can’t see Labour losing it in 2015. If it existed at the time, it probably would have gone Tory in ’83, but not now.

  4. The Tories will not win this seat unless there is a monumental Conservative landslide in 2015. While the Tory vote is OK in Erith and bits of Belvedere, it’s shocklingly low in Thamesmead which is now dominated by Nigerians – a loyal Labour supporting group.

    By 2020 demograhics alone will make this seat super safe for Labour.

    The Tories only hope of a gain in South East London lies with Eltham and even that will be a challenge.

  5. “I agree with Orangina. I can’t see Labour losing it in 2015. If it existed at the time, it probably would have gone Tory in ’83, but not now.”

    It would almost certainly have gone SDP in 1983 but Conservative in 1987

  6. As stated on another thread, I don’t think that the Tories have a serious chance in Eltham either, unless they are at least 12% ahead of Labour nationally.

  7. Conservative votes, Erith & Thamesmead:

    1997: 8,388
    2001: 8,602
    2005: 8,983
    2005 notional: 10,020
    2010: 13,365

    (Nadhim Zahawi was the candidate in 1997).

  8. Prediction for 2015-
    Labour- 51%
    Conservative- 30%
    Liberal Democrat- 10%
    UKIP- 5%
    Others- 4%

  9. I would have a lower Conservative and Lib Dem vote.
    Something like

    Lab 55
    Con 28
    Lib Dem 5
    Ukip 6
    BNP 4
    Grn 2

  10. There can’t be many non-Tory seats in London where the Tory vote has increased in each election since 1997. Poplar & Canning Town might be another.

  11. Labour by 11000 over con

  12. The new right to buy policy could give the Tories a boost here

    LAB: 48
    CON: 28
    UKIP: 16
    GRN: 4
    LD: 3
    CPA: 1
    ED: <0.5%

  13. Teresa Pearce will retire at next GE

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