Epsom & Ewell

2015 Result:
Conservative: 33309 (58.9%)
Labour: 8866 (15.7%)
Lib Dem: 5002 (8.8%)
Green: 2116 (3.7%)
UKIP: 7117 (12.6%)
Independent: 121 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 24443 (43.2%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, Surrey. The whole of the Epsom and Ewell council area, two wards from Reigate and Banstead and the Ashtead wards from Mole Valley council.

Main population centres: Epsom, Ewell, Ashtead, Tattenham Corner, Nork.

Profile: This is a commuter area just outside Greater London and within the M25. It is an affluent and desirable area, regularly classed as among the best places to live in the UK. It includes the former spa town of Epsom, Ewell, the village of Ashtead, Nork and Tattenham Corner from the Reigate and Banstead council area and the Epsom Downs, an area of chalk uplands that is the site of the Epsom Downs Racecourse and hosts the Epsom Derby.

Politics: This is a rock-solid Conservative seat. It has returned a Conservative MP since its creation as Epsom in 1885 and even in the Labour landslide year of 1997 it retained a Conservative majority of over 20 percent. At a local level, however, Epsom and Ewell council has always been dominated by councillors from the local Epsom and Ewell residents association.


Current MP
CHRIS GRAYLING (Conservative) Born 1962, London. Educated at the Royal Grammar School, High Wycombe, and Cambridge University. Former BBC producer. Merton councillor 1998-2002. Contested Warrington South 1997. First elected as MP for Epsom and Ewell in 2001. Shadow leader of the Commons 2005, shadow transport secretary 2005-2007, shadow pensions secretary 2007-2009, shadow home secretary 2009-2010. Minister of State for Work and Pensions 2010-2012, Lord Chancellor 2012-2015. Leader of the House of Commons since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 30868 (56%)
Lab: 6538 (12%)
LDem: 14734 (27%)
UKIP: 2549 (5%)
Oth: 266 (0%)
MAJ: 16134 (29%)
2005*
Con: 27146 (54%)
Lab: 10265 (21%)
LDem: 10699 (21%)
UKIP: 1769 (4%)
MAJ: 16447 (33%)
2001
Con: 22430 (48%)
Lab: 12350 (26%)
LDem: 10316 (22%)
UKIP: 1547 (3%)
MAJ: 10080 (22%)
1997
Con: 24717 (46%)
Lab: 13192 (24%)
LDem: 12380 (23%)
Oth: 1537 (3%)
MAJ: 11525 (21%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHRIS GRAYLING (Conservative) See above.
SHEILA CARLSON (Labour)
STEVE GEE (Liberal Democrat) Contested Wimbledon 2005.
ROBERT LEACH (UKIP)
SUSAN MCGRATH (Green)
GARETH HARFOOT (No description)
LIONEL BLACKMAN (Independent) Educated at Sutton Grammar. Solicitor. Epsom and Ewell councillor 2005-2007. Contested Esher and Walton 2010 for the Liberal Democrats.
Links
Comments - 235 Responses on “Epsom & Ewell”
  1. The best thing about this Grayling bike incident is that he made comments just a few days prior talking about how cycle lanes in London are dangerous for car drivers and their should be less of them…he’s clearly right, innocently swinging his door open only to have mad cyclists rudely crashing into his door…might have scratched the paintwork on his shiny ministerial car!!!

    In all seriousness though where are the usual procession of peeps who would claim this is a “game changer” had it happened to Corbyn or Thornberry? No takers I assume?

  2. Well in all fairness I at least raised the topic. I don’t think it’s a game changer of course but it adds to Grayling’s somewhat clumsy and hapless reputation so brings forward the day when he’ll get the boot.

  3. “The best thing about this Grayling bike incident is that he made comments just a few days prior talking about how cycle lanes in London are dangerous for car drivers and their should be less of them”

    When I’m driving in London I much prefer the cyclists to be in a cycle lane than swarming amongst the traffic in the same lanes. Why anyone would think otherwise is frankly bizarre, especially a transport minister. However as befits a wet Tory I’d be in favour of a compromise here. I’m in favour of clamping down on cyclist bad behaviour but we’ve also got to do far more to cut road usage in central London and perhaps other cities too. I do my bit by hardly ever driving in central London though I’m there a few times a week.

  4. HH
    Not accusing you HH, we may not always agree on things but you’re never one to take part in a online fapathon.

    Con Estimate
    Of course you would say that wouldn’t you. With respect Grayling could have proceeded to get out of his car and stab the cyclist repeatedly and you probably still would have been more outraged at Thornberry’s exaggerated sexism row, credit to you though that makes you a heck of a lot better than Runneymede, he probably would have applauded Grayling for stabbing the cyclist…

  5. Remember the Runnymede rule – never appear on the site the day after the Lib Dems have won something

  6. And apologies to Runnymede as I don’t really know what his reaction would have been, but I couldn’t help thinking of him when that Yorkshire Tory councillor was asked what he would be donating to the Jo Cox memorial fund and he replied “the steam off my piss”. Can’t be him as he doesn’t live in Yorkshire though 🙂

  7. HH – when I heard it I assumed it just meant he had personally as he’s so tall and clumsy lol

  8. HH
    Lol are we to assume Friday is going to be Runneymede’s day off from now on then? Cant think of the last by election night the Lib Dems didn’t win something.

  9. HH
    “I couldn’t help thinking of him when that Yorkshire Tory councillor was asked what he would be donating to the Jo Cox memorial fund and he replied “the steam off my piss”. Can’t be him as he doesn’t live in Yorkshire though”

    LOL I’d say Runneymede must be a great admirer but I doubt it, probably thinks all Yorkshire folk are closet communists, then again he seems to think everybody is basically a closet communist…

  10. Con Hold 26,000 maj.

    Labour remain second narrowly.

    Though it voted remain I would imagine it’s remain rather than remoan..

  11. Last Thursday two council seats one Labour hold in Chester and one Conservative Gain Harrow

  12. Final Prediction

    Conservative: 36,774
    Labour: 10,718
    Lib Dem: 6,221
    Green: 1,312

    maj: 26,056

  13. Chris Grayling remains transport Secretary.

  14. Ruxley Ward By-election, 15.02.18:

    Residents’ Association 398
    Conservative 340
    Labour 264
    Liberal Democrat 67

    Residents’ Hold.

  15. Not a bad showing for Labour there, considering it’s the most Brexity ward the borough and not a ward where Corbyn goes down to well. It’s one of the most deprived wards in Surrey containing most of the Watersedge estate. They have a fairly decent chance of maybe gaining Town in 2019, it’s a remain ward and has a students, young people, workers from Epsom Hospital and is a former LD ward.

  16. I thought that the MP for this seat was somehow Teflon coated, but the clock appears to be ticking on ‘Failing Grayling’s Cabinet career. Tick tock.

  17. ‘I thought that the MP for this seat was somehow Teflon coated, but the clock appears to be ticking on ‘Failing Grayling’s Cabinet career. ‘

    I’m not so sure

    Let’s face it Tristan, Grayling’s performed extremely weakly in every cabinet job he’s ever had and yet they keep on coming

    Having cleverly positioned himself as a pro-Brexit, Theresa May loyalist, he’s exactly the sort of colleague Theresa May needs alongside her in cabinet as she tries oi water down the hard Brexit that Grayling and his allies seem intent on inflicting on this country

  18. Sigh…you are probably right Tim. Actually I think.his stint as Justice Secretary was even more offensive than the current shambles at Transport. I uses to group him in with Leadsom in the incompetence stakes but I now realise I was being far too hard on Mrs Leadsom. The man is in a class of his own.

  19. It’s bad for democracy when cabinet ministers can persisyentoly undeprerform with no fear of reprimand

    If politics were a normal job Grayling would have been given his marching orders months ago

    He simply isn’t fit for government

  20. The next scandal to hit the Transport Secretary will be the total inadequacy of the new bi-modal train technology that he and his department are bizarrely in love with. When people realise how much slower their journey has become they will not be happy. Their can scarcely have been a stupider decision than the cancellation of electrification programmes which has brought this about and led to hundreds of perfectly workable newish trains being scrapped (this will soon include the Heathrow Express, built only 20 years ago). In fairness this was McLoughlin’s decision not Grayling’s.

  21. To add to the above – I have some insider knowledge that his plans for the Port of Dover/Channel Tunnel/M20 are typical of Brexiteer magical thinking, and he’s not taking “no” for an answer on that one. If he’s still Transport Secretary by then, that could be the final nail in the coffin.

  22. ‘The next scandal to hit the Transport Secretary will be the total inadequacy of the new bi-modal train technology that he and his department are bizarrely in love with. When people realise how much slower their journey has become they will not be happy. Their can scarcely have been a stupider decision than the cancellation of electrification programmes which has brought this about and led to hundreds of perfectly workable newish trains being scrapped (this will soon include the Heathrow Express, built only 20 years ago). In fairness this was McLoughlin’s decision not Grayling’s.’

    Electrification in England and Wales seems to have become a complete shambles (compared with Scotland, where virtually all of the central belt between Edin, Glasgow and Stirling is now electrified) also Grayling’s reaction to the shambles that is northern rail is awful.

    But he keeps going because he is a brexiteer.

  23. ‘But he keeps going because he is a brexiteer’

    Yet another incompetent Brexiter who thanks to May’s ineptitude gets a free hand to wreck whatever havoc and misery onto the British public that he sees fit

    When is it going to dawn on people that most hard Brexiters bith inside and outside politics are actually just a bit thick – and Grayling’s a classic example of that

  24. I think its because hes the perfect fall guy. When the trains dont run on time blame Grayling. He takes the flack

  25. I actually had a dream the other day where Grayling was the Tory party leader, suffice to say as a Labour supporter upon waking up I was incredibly disappointed.

  26. The idea of Brexit Britain is the stuff of complete and utter nightmare Rivers

  27. Dr Freud would have had a field day trying to interpret that dream, Rivers. Thankfully, I can’t quite see things ever getting so bad that Grayling has a shot at PM (God I hope I’m right on that). Leadsom being in the final two was bad enough.

  28. Yeah, no chance Grayling will ever become PM. It was notable that when all the cabinet Brexiteers met to discuss co-ordinate their responses to Chequers, Grayling was left out.

  29. I don’t even get angry any more. He’s just too pathetic for that.

  30. ‘I don’t even get angry any more. He’s just too pathetic for that.’

    He is but yet he seems an ever-present in any future Conservative government – which says as much about the lack of talent available at the top level of politics generally in the UK as it does the Tories appalling taste in general with regards to what makes a good politician

    It beggars belief that Grayling got beyond a local association select committee, let alone a seat in cabinet

  31. That’s probably unfair. Theres some really poor people on committees and he at least beats them

  32. That’s probably unfair. Theres some really poor people on committees and he at least beats them

    Maybe but for a front line politician his multitude of inadequacies seem all too apparent

  33. Nonsuch by-election, 20.09.18:

    Residents Association 766 (+9%)
    Cons 227 (-6%)
    LD 98
    Lab 41

    25% Turnout

  34. Following this latest ferry fiasco what possible reason can Theresa May have for not sacking the utterly hapless Chris Grayling.

    He’s not only an embarrassment to his party but his country too and this is such a miscalculation many people will conclude – rightlt or wrongly – that he must have some financial arrangement with the company to sanction the deal

  35. Not sure that this is likely to be any different to his previous embarrassments…

    https://www.google.co.uk/search?source=hp&ei=aMMvXOjeLY7osAfNnrDYBw&q=failing+Grayling&btnK=Google+Search&oq=failing+Grayling&gs_l=psy-ab.3…2614.13573..15150…1.0..0.76.917.17……0….1..gws-wiz…..0..0j0i131j0i10j0i13.YaP-_7nW9iU

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