Enfield North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19086 (41.4%)
Labour: 20172 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 1059 (2.3%)
Green: 1303 (2.8%)
UKIP: 4133 (9%)
TUSC: 177 (0.4%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1086 (2.4%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Enfield, Enfield Lock.

Profile: The northernmost seat in London, bounded by the M25 along its northern border, the Lee valley reservoirs to the east and the green belt countryside of Enfield Chase to the west. It is a varied seat, with very affluent, village like areas in the west of the seat and far more industrial areas and council blocks to the east of the seat by Enfield Lock.

Politics: A classic marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, with the more Labour east of the seat largely balancing out the more Conservative west.


Current MP
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010. First elected as MP for Enfield North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18804 (42%)
Lab: 17112 (38%)
LDem: 5403 (12%)
BNP: 1228 (3%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 1692 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16135 (40%)
Lab: 18055 (44%)
LDem: 4642 (11%)
BNP: 1004 (2%)
Oth: 913 (2%)
MAJ: 1920 (5%)
2001
Con: 15597 (41%)
Lab: 17888 (47%)
LDem: 3355 (9%)
BNP: 605 (2%)
Oth: 698 (2%)
MAJ: 2291 (6%)
1997
Con: 17326 (36%)
Lab: 24148 (51%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
Oth: 1074 (2%)
MAJ: 6822 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK DE BOIS (Conservative) Born 1959, Ely. Educated at Culford School. Managing director of a marketing communications company. Contested Stalybridge and Hyde 1997, Enfield North 2001, 2005. MP for Enfield North 2010 to 2015.
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010.
CARA JENKINSON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Cambridge University. Former IT manager, director of a community energy company.
DEBORAH CAIRNS (UKIP) Learning support assistant.
DAVID FLINT (Green) Educated at Handsworth Technical School and Imperial College. Retired management consultant.
YEMI AWOWLA (CPA)
JOE SIMPSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 325 Responses on “Enfield North”
  1. I tell you what Deepthroat if you turn out to be right about this one I really want an email chat with you post election.

  2. LAB gain 1750

  3. Labour Gain. 2,500 maj

  4. Cons projected to hold Enfield North in exit poll. I must admit I am struggling to accept that but we’ll have to see.

  5. Despite how much this has been talked up of a long-term Labour seat, looks like that won’t happen.

  6. ….Well tonight.

  7. Will prob be a swing but not enough.

  8. Labour GAIN with a majority of 1,086.

  9. At least I got this right.

  10. Yes, I got this one right but I was way out on the majority.

  11. One of the few seats I Predicted to be CON HOLD that actually turned red. – but I must have been sufficiently nervous about this, as I didn’t back up my judgment by placing money on a Tory win here.

  12. I assume the Conservative vote held up well in the west of the seat. Wards like Chase, Town and Highlands, but were pipped by Labour strength in the eastern wards. Labour did well in Chase at the locals.

  13. On the current boundaries Enfield North might have been Conservative in 2001.

    That it was Labour in 2015 indicates the extent of the demographic change.

  14. I don’t think there’s any doubt that this was a notionally Conservative seat in 2001 and 2005 given that Ponders End would have arguably been Labour’s strongest ward in those elections.

    Labour probably underperformed their potential in 2015 and arguably in 2010 as well because of Joan Ryan’s part in the expenses scandal and a very large personal vote for Nick de Bois, who I doubt will stand here again. Even under Corbyn I think Labour will win comfortably here in 2020.

  15. H Hemmelig- agreed.

  16. Yes….like Ilford North to seems to be going the same was a Brent North and Ealing North.

  17. The Tories probably have more chance of winning Barrow & Furness and NE Derbyshire than winning here next time.

  18. If this seat and perhaps Ilford North (though it’s not guaranteed) stay with Labour in 2020, it will be in spite of Corbyn. I’d say that’s partly how they were won this year as Miliband himself wasn’t a vote winner. Natural demographic change did it for them.

    I think the proposed boundary changes from last time placed Ponders End back in this seat so that would’ve certainly benefited Labour even more if they went through in 2013.

  19. Anyone who think’s Labour will hold this seat in its current form in 2020 with Corbyn in charge is deluded!

    Go on the internet and check out some of the houses in this seat. There’re mansions in leafy villages / suburbs in this seat worth about £3.5 million – not exactly Corbyn territory!

  20. I’m sure that houses in the Chase Ward make this constituency look like the Home Counties but no matter that there are safe Conservative wards in this constituency they are out voted by the parts of this constituency closer to Edmonton.

  21. @Christian

    I tend to disagree.

    I don’t think CON are yet no-hopers here in a good year, but generally Enfield is definitely experiencing demographic change. Yes, this includes some very well-off areas, especially to the west of the seat, but the bulk is Enfield Town itself and the surrounding council estates/relatively low-value residential areas. Over the years Enfield has changed from having more in common with Barnet to the west to having more in common with Edmonton and Tottenham to the south. In particular, Enfield now has a significant BME, especially black African/Caribbean, population. At the same time well off commuters are increasingly more likely to go further afield – to Herts or parts of Essex – rather than living in Enfield.

    I think the result here in May provided further evidence that change is happening. Yes, the size of the swing was fairly in line with the general London picture but given the candidates that were standing you would probably have expected a Tory hold all things being equal. Nick de Bois is generally regarded as having been a good, campaigning MP (particularly on knife-crime, but also on other issues that effect Enfield) and had first-time incumbency whilst Joan Ryan had been tainted by the expenses scandal and was quite a controversial re-selection.

  22. Aren’t those houses in the various hamlets and villages on the border with Hertfordshire? Go further east and you’ll probably see why it’s looking like a Labour seat. Pretty sure the areas north of Edmonton are more densely populated and increasingly diverse ethnically. As I mentioned in my previous post, the last boundary changes proposed Ponders End go to this seat. That would’ve bolstered Labour’s performance.

  23. As I have commented before literally thousands of homeless families have been placed here by boroughs closer to the centre of London because it is one of the few places which are cheap enough to use, and not too far away. This is one of the causes of rapid social change.

  24. As in many London seats the main railway line acts as a physical and political barrier in Enfield North. The area to the east of the railway has always been industrial and working class, the area to the west far richer and much more leafy suburbia.

    On occasion we have seen Tories eating significantly into working class voters in the east (1979-92) and Labour eating into the suburban west (Blair 1997-2005). But now that the ethnic mix has changed so much there will be much less potential for this to be a swing seat. Working class BME voters are much more loyal to Labour than their white counterparts, and the ethnic mix in the west of the seat has changed quite a bit too.

  25. Even the western wards of Enfield North not *that* upmarket. Highlands is probably about the pick of them but even that is fairly MOR.

  26. The constituency does include some very upmarket places – Botany Bay, Crews Hill for instance – but they probably account for a few hundred voters all told. There is much more very nice housing over the border in the northern half of Enfield Southgate.

  27. “There is much more very nice housing over the border in the northern half of Enfield Southgate.”

    Hadley Wood is one of those places. Lot of the properties there look very exclusive.

  28. @Neil

    Indeed, Hadley Wood is round the corner from where I live. People that live there tend to consider themselves to be more from Barnet than Enfield but that’s how the boundaries – parliamentary and local govt. – are.

  29. Mayoral result (excluding postal):

    Khan 10457 44.6%
    Goldsmith 8556 36.5%

  30. Labour would’ve gained this seat last year on a bigger swing, but the national picture and possibly the Joan Ryan factor kept the winning majority down. Come 2020 I think she’ll have no problem pulling ahead by some margin.

  31. A heavy proportion of 2015 Tory voters in this seat will probably have moved out (or died) by 2020. If Nick de Bois doesn’t stand again Labour could win by a big majority.

  32. The seat also becomes just ‘Enfield’ rather than ‘Enfield North’. Could have been much worse here for the Tories. I expect David Burrowes will contest this if this is the final arrangement given that Enfield Southgate has been dismembered.

  33. Are we going to see round 5 of Ryan vs De Bois?

  34. Yes….De Bois vs Ryan Round 5 is confirmed.

    My view is that London will still swing relatively away from the Conservatives but the UK swing away from Labour will be so large that there will still be a small Conservative swing (relative Labour swing compaired to the UK)

    This will result in a small Conservatives majority here when safe Labour seats further north will fall like nine pins.

  35. This seat was fairly split on Brexit IIRC and it is only two years since 2015 so there hasn’t been long for more demographic change to take effect. So I expect De Bois to with the biggest majority for either party in the seat since ’97. That would, of course, make Joan Ryan a two-time defeated incumbent.

  36. Enfield North has not moved to Labour on the scale as other London constituencies. Enfield East was a Labour seat from 1945 to 1974. The addition of wards from the abolished Conservative constituency of Enfield West created the Labour marginal of Enfield North that fell to the Tories in 1979 but it was only really safe for the Conservatives in 1983 and 1987.

  37. JC @ The only other MP I can think of who lost their constituency and then won it back only to lose again was Penny Fenner in Rochester & Chatham / Medway.

    Gained the seat in 1970.
    Lost the seat in 1974
    Regained the seat in 1979
    Relost the seat in 1997.

  38. Conservative win

  39. This constituency was very volatile in the 80s. Notional Conservative Gain from Labour in 1983 then a 15000 plus Tory majority in 1987. Could the Conservatives win here again…albeit by a few hundred?

  40. Sorry…ment for Ealing North

  41. I think Joan Ryan will hold on here. Theres the London factor to consider and the fact that the demographics are trending slightly towards Labour. And chase farm hospital. The Tories wanted to shut it down or parts of it and Ryan has defended that heavily. I think theres a list of Labour seats with wafer thin majorities where elsewhere they would have fallen but in London….
    -Enfield North
    -Ilford North
    -Hampstead and Kilburn
    -Acton S and Ealing
    -Brentford and Isleworth
    -Westminster North

    I think Labour will hold four of those six against the tide. I think Westminster N is the one most at risk.

  42. Con gain. easily i would have thought.

  43. Yes and there must be a good chance UKIP step aside here. De Bois is a real eurosceptic’. He was one of the CON MPs who defied a 3 line whip, in Oct2011, on a motion demanding an EU referendum in 2013.

  44. People go on about “the London factor” but there isn’t any real polling evidence to back this up – I guess people are just feeling that, because it was the only region that swung significantly towards Labour last time, won the mayoralty last year, and had a very strong pro-remain vote, that it will continue to push towards Labour. But if you actually go through cross-breaks of various polls, there doesn’t seem to be much evidence that the swing will be all that much smaller, and certainly not so much that Labour is likely to hold its marginals against the tide (though I concede it could happen in some places with the first-time incumbency bonus, a negligible UKIP vote for the Tories to squeeze, etc). I suspect that the swing towards Labour in London in 2015 was mainly because Labour squeezed the Lib Dems, rather than taking Tory voters directly. Obviously that’s not going to happen again because there’s sod all to squeeze this time around.

  45. Very good by election result for Labour which will encourage them in this marginal:
    Enfield Lock (LB Enfield)
    LAB: 63.8% (+13%)
    CON: 28.8%
    GRN: 3.1%
    UKIP: 2.7%
    LDEM: 1.6%

  46. Sorry but I need to correct some “fake news” a little upthread.

    The downgrading of Chase Farm Hospital was first proposed by the Blair government in the early 2000s. “Save Chase Farm” candidates ran in many Enfield wards in the 2006 council elections and (I can’t quite remember) maybe in 2002 as well. This issue might answer Plopwellian Tory’s question about how well the Tories did here in 2001 and 2005.

  47. Candidates :
    Nick De Bois (C)
    Joan Ryan (Lab)
    Nicholas Da Costa (LD)
    Bill Linton (Green)
    Deborah Cairns (UKIP)
    Interesting that UKIP are pitching up against the very eurosceptic De Bois

  48. It wasn’t that good Alex. You neglect to mention that the Tory vote also rose by 13%; in fact it rose by 0.6% more actually.

    Still, Labour would be happy not to have gone backwards here.

  49. Yes, for what it’s worth a minuscule swing to the Tories as both they and Labour increase their share appreciably

  50. In the last three council by elections both Labour and Tories are up. This is the highest increase Labour has had though

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