Enfield North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19086 (41.4%)
Labour: 20172 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 1059 (2.3%)
Green: 1303 (2.8%)
UKIP: 4133 (9%)
TUSC: 177 (0.4%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1086 (2.4%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Enfield, Enfield Lock.

Profile: The northernmost seat in London, bounded by the M25 along its northern border, the Lee valley reservoirs to the east and the green belt countryside of Enfield Chase to the west. It is a varied seat, with very affluent, village like areas in the west of the seat and far more industrial areas and council blocks to the east of the seat by Enfield Lock.

Politics: A classic marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, with the more Labour east of the seat largely balancing out the more Conservative west.


Current MP
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010. First elected as MP for Enfield North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18804 (42%)
Lab: 17112 (38%)
LDem: 5403 (12%)
BNP: 1228 (3%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 1692 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16135 (40%)
Lab: 18055 (44%)
LDem: 4642 (11%)
BNP: 1004 (2%)
Oth: 913 (2%)
MAJ: 1920 (5%)
2001
Con: 15597 (41%)
Lab: 17888 (47%)
LDem: 3355 (9%)
BNP: 605 (2%)
Oth: 698 (2%)
MAJ: 2291 (6%)
1997
Con: 17326 (36%)
Lab: 24148 (51%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
Oth: 1074 (2%)
MAJ: 6822 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK DE BOIS (Conservative) Born 1959, Ely. Educated at Culford School. Managing director of a marketing communications company. Contested Stalybridge and Hyde 1997, Enfield North 2001, 2005. MP for Enfield North 2010 to 2015.
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010.
CARA JENKINSON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Cambridge University. Former IT manager, director of a community energy company.
DEBORAH CAIRNS (UKIP) Learning support assistant.
DAVID FLINT (Green) Educated at Handsworth Technical School and Imperial College. Retired management consultant.
YEMI AWOWLA (CPA)
JOE SIMPSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 325 Responses on “Enfield North”
  1. It already is to an extent. I have to say that a Tory defeat is a very slim outside chance. It’s not totally impossible – I must say that I had somewhat overestimated the lead they are defending in Avonmore & Brook Green, for example – but it isn’t one of the key target boroughs laid down by Labour high regional command. Certainly when the demolition of the W Kensington estate is complete it will make North End very hard for Labour to win in future – it’s already far from straightforward. There is still enough social housing in that ward, Fulham Reach (actually almost all in Hammersmith despite the name), Ravenscourt Park & Addison wards for Labour to have a bit of an outside shot, but that’s all. No wards in the Chelsea & Fulham constituency are winnable now in my opinion, not even Sands End.

  2. The 2012 GLA results weren’t all that encouraging for Labour. The Tories narrowly carried North End and Fulham Reach and got home somewhat more comfortably in Addison, Avonmore and Ravenscourt. In Sands End, the Tories were 22% ahead of Labour on the member vote, which just about says it all.

  3. That is all correct. The reason it may be better for Labour is that there are some specific local issues which are more resonant in borough than in GLA elections. The proposed closure of Charing Cross hospital (which is in Hammersmith despite its name) is a very major issue, and there are other ones such as skyline issues which are somewhat problematic for the Tories in Hammersmith Broadway ward (which is already Labour) and in Ravenscourt Park ward (which is semi-safe Tory but just about losable if Labour do very well). The Tories in my view just about have enough natural support to overcome these issues, but as the sole serious opposition Labour does pose something of a threat in these circumstances. Also council tenants are unusually motivated to vote, with some of their homes & estates under direct physical threat & the possibility that they may be decanted into boroughs quite a long distance away.

  4. If you really want to see how this area has declined position Google Streetview Man outside 57 Goodwood Ave, Enfield and face West.

    Now, use the new facility on the top left of the page which enables like-for like comparison of previous years’ imagery. Compare the state of the row of houses between Jul 2008 (practically yesterday) and 2012, a matter of 4 years.

    Shocking. Truly shocking.

  5. In fact the whole road appears to have simply fallen through the floor. Very sad.

  6. RR – I partly see what you mean.
    I’m not sure the difference is as pronounced in the street as a whole, but the area looks less settled.

    Why do you say it’s shocking though?

    I think we should be a bit careful about discussing particular addresses etc perhaps.

  7. I would be interested in what others think about this.

  8. Maybe needs weeding a bit but I’d hardly call it shocking. Yeah maybe best not to name and shame particular houses.

  9. It is indicative of an area rapidly turning from well maintained owner occupied housing into buy to let. The previous owners no doubt cashed in for a good profit and are now living further out in Herts or Essex.

    Mrs Thatcher said that a major justification for allowing people to buy council houses was that they would take more pride in their appearance and maintain them better. She was right, and with the decline of home ownership we are seeing this process go into reverse. As long as rents are high and rising there is little incentive for landlords to care about the external state of a buy to let property, especially in an area known to be quite rough.

  10. Enfield, popular vote:

    Lab 40,006 (42.41%)
    Con 25,082 (26.59%)
    Green 10,889 (11.54%)
    UKIP 10,430 (11.06%)
    LD 2,633 (2.79%)
    Ind 1,911 (2.03%)
    BNP 1,477 (1.57%)
    TUSC 1,176 (1.25%)
    Patients Not Profit 735 (0.78%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Lab +7.75%
    Con -7.70%
    Green +1.94%
    UKIP +8.97%
    LD -13.57%

  11. Enfield North results (using highest vote method)

    Labour 12879 (37.4%)
    Cons 9078 (26.4%)
    UKIP 5667 (16.5%)
    Green 3842 (11.2%)
    BNP 1096 (3.2%)
    Oths 1872 (5.4%)

    Labour, the Tories, UKIP and the Greens fought all the wards.

    All in all, a pretty depressing series of results for the Conservatives. Interesting to note UKIP doing reasonably well.

  12. Not that bad considering Labour came first in Enfield Southgate.

  13. Looks like Joan Ryan’s comeback to Westminster is becoming more likely now.

  14. Not as bad as I imagined. A glimmer of hope here.

  15. If I may quote from Muhammad Ali – and I am not noted for overconfidence – Nick de Bois “has two chances, slim and none.”

  16. Not surprised seeing how much the borough itself has moved towards Labour, even to the point where Southgate should be a Labour gain in the long-run (there’ll probably be a close result in 2015).

    This grouping of seats are have given rise to an interesting set of results. Pudsey is shaky and Gloucester looks unlikely to go Labour whereas this, Brentford & Isleworth and Hastings & Rye look like comfortable gains.

  17. Not remotely surprised to see Labour achieving a 6.5% swing here. Stick on Labour gain.

  18. “A senior Labour Party member called for his own party’s prospective parliamentary candidate to be investigated in an explosive letter.

    Ben Maloney, secretary of the Southgate Labour Party, was suspended two-and-a-half hours after a copy of an explosive letter to his party was forwarded to this newspaper.

    In it he claims former Labour MP and candidate for Enfield North Joan Ryan is “a cancer at the heart of the Labour party.” ”

    http://www.enfieldindependent.co.uk/news/11623650.Suspended_Labour_party_secretary_calls_for_parliamentary_candidate_to_be_investigated/

  19. This is a properly bizarre case at face value. I’ve sent a follow request to Ben Maloney on Twitter. If he accepts maybe there’ll be something on there about it.

  20. This seat like at least 20-30 others – one where the CON/UKIP/right wing split will hand LAB a win.

    Is it possible Nigel Farage will try a rapprochement between the Tories?? and UKIP & decide not to put candidates in seats where there’s a eurosceptic Tory??.

    He did this of course in Clacton and Rochester for GE2010 and has indicated in the past that he may do this nationally (in selected seats)

    Let’s look at 14 ‘eurosceptic’ CON MPs who defied a 3 line whip, in Oct2011, on a motion demanding an EU referendum in 2013 – so they are genuine eurosceptics (at least).

    They face losing their seats to LAB by small margins (predicted 4-10% because of a significant UKIP vote in the seat). These 14 MPs are:-

    ANDREW (PUDSEY)
    DE BOIS (ENFIELD N)
    BYLES (WARWICKSHIRE N)
    JACKSON (POSH)
    MCCARTNEY (COLNE VALLEY)
    MCCARTNEY (LINCOLN)
    MILLS (AMBER VALLEY)
    MOSLEY (CHESTER)
    NUTTALL (BURY N)
    OFFORD (HENDON)
    REES-MOGG (SOMERSET N EAST)
    REEVELL (DEWSBURY)
    VICKERS (CLEETHORPES)
    WALKER (WORCESTER

    So do you think Farage not fielding a UKIP candidate in these seats is:-

    a) very likely
    b) probable
    c) not very likely
    d) c’est impossible
    or
    e) horseshit

    ty…deepthroat

  21. Hello??!?

  22. According to Enfield UKIP website,
    DEBORAH CAIRNS has been selected as their PPC.

  23. Prediction-
    Ryan (Labour)- 43%
    De Bois (Tory)- 39%
    UKIP- 11%
    Green- 5%
    Lib Dem- 2%

  24. Fecking UKIP

  25. I know I promised not to keep talking about Iain Dale’s predictions but I have to share this as I gasped in amazement. I have capitalised the most astonishing sentence.

    ‘This seat is more complicated than it looks. You’d think it would be a Labour banker to regain, but the local Labour Party is in dissaray after they re-selected Joan Ryan, who Nick De Bois defeated in 2010. She’s a gift to the Tories because of her record on expenses, and the circumstances surrounding her selection whiff to say the least. THERE ARE ALSO DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES AFOOT IN THIS SEAT THAT BENEFIT THE CONSERVATIVES. However, I’m going with Labour in my prediction as I think the odds still go marginally in their favour.’

    http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/04/general-election-predictions-28-london-north-east?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

  26. What is he on? Demographic changes disadvantage the Conservatives in Southgate, never mind here.

  27. His Eastbourne prediction was ridiculous enough.

    This is poor judgment. In the 2014 borough elections, Labour gained one of three seats in the Chase ward for heaven’s sake. Highlands and Town are the best parts of Enfield N for the Conservatives and even in Town Labour has closed the gap. The eastern part of the seat is heavily Labour.

    So he has it as a Labour gain, but then thinks demographics are favouring the Conservatives?? If the Southgate local results are anything to go by, it’s very very clear which direction Enfield borough is heading in political terms.

  28. Yes agreed. A gain for LAB – they got a nice margin over the Tories in May 2014 elections in the six wards that make up Enfield North.

    ASHCROFT gives LAB a 12% SVI lead & 8% CVI. Also the ASHCROFT Sept poll suggests nearly half the LIBDEM GE2010 votes will go to LAB (4 times as many as CON). Whilst twice as many CON votes compared to LAB going to UKIP.

    I naively mused recently over UKIP not standing against De Bois – who is a big eurosceptic – he defied his party by voting for an early referendum a few years ago. But I think his chance is probably gone as he will lose big votes to UKIP and LAB will get a lot from the Liberal Democrats. But re selection of Mrs Ryan might hinder rather than help LAB.

    So I do agree with IAIN DALE that it will be a narrow LAB win…tentative prediction
    LAB..42%
    CON.39
    LD……5
    UKIP..9
    GRN…3
    OTH…2

  29. Quite ridiculous. That of course explains why Southbury has changed from being a Tory-inclined marginal ward to being safe Labour……..
    I think Labour will win this seat by rather more than 3%.

  30. Although I believe one should not directly translate local elections over to a GE (the turnout in Enfield in May was about 37%), the LAB lead in the local elections was more than I initially calculated. .I left out one…It was approximately 4500 – 18% ahead of CON. So I suppose if you could you this performance to extrapolate a huge LAB win.

    BM..Can you be more specific than ‘rather more than 3%’.? The last three margins here was 4%, 5%, & 6% (CON/LAB/LAB). My calculations make it tight, i.e around 5% or less . Here, I am factoring in my over arching theory (fallacy?) that the Tories will get some swing back and close in the polls and do better than is currently being polled.

    So I stick with a LAB win but by less than 2500 votes.

  31. ‘I know I promised not to keep talking about Iain Dale’s predictions but I have to share this as I gasped in amazement. I have capitalised the most astonishing sentence.’

    The worst thing about Dale’s predictions is that they show he obviously knows very little about politics in the constituencies he’s speculating on

    I would recommend that all visitors to this site have a look

    …and thanks for the link tory

  32. “I naively mused recently over UKIP not standing against De Bois – who is a big eurosceptic – he defied his party by voting for an early referendum a few years ago. But I think his chance is probably gone as he will lose big votes to UKIP”

    “I think Labour will win this seat by rather more than 3%.”

    I personally think Labour’s majority here will be higher than the UKIP vote. As others have said, Dale is talking absolute horseshit. The demographics have moved very strongly here since 2010 and a Labour majority of 5000 or so wouldn’t surprise me.

    The most interesting question regarding Enfield North will be whether Labour, knowing it will be an easy gain, decide to move their resources into Southgate in the hope of capitalising on their local election victory there.

  33. Unlikely but possible is a UKIP share of 10% and a Labour majority of about 8%.

  34. I am interested to see the comments above about demographic change here. As I also suspect Labour may be doing better in London than in the country generally,it is quite possible that Labour could take this seat even if nationwide they are losing seats to the Tories.

    There seems to be a long-term battle here between Joan Ryan and Nick De Bois!

  35. In whose fantasy world are Labour going to be losing seats to the Tories? Labour remain slightly ahead in the polls. In 2010 they were 8% behind. Nobody seriously expects them to be 8% behind in May. Labour will have a double digit percentage majority here.

  36. HH

    I see you made the mistake of trying to talk some sense about London constituencies at Know-All Central.

  37. Well I thought I’d give it a go.

  38. I too think that Labour should easily pick up seats like this one with a comfortable, if perhaps not particularly large, majority. One would imagine a Labour majority of 2,000 – 2,500 might well be on the cards here.

    However, I am struck by the deep and unshakeable confidence that many Conservatives seem to have that their share of the vote will be considerably higher than Labour’s by 7 May and that their planned ‘giveaway’ budget plus a concentrated burst of defamation of Ed M’s character over the next two months will turn things their way.

    Are they deluded, or is there some truth in this expectation?

  39. The tories’ confidence is extraordinary. I was frankly amazed to see polls showing labour ahead, albeit by 1 point, in high peak and norwich, and only 1 point behind in colne valley…all three of these polls implied a 5% swing from C to Lab, but nobody on the blue side seems remotely concerned…

    the budget won’t do anything. Last year we were told that the end of the annuity pension was a blinder and game changer… The press would have you believe that Osborne is the greatest political strategist of all time. I think he has been fairly rubbish. certainly the 2012 budget was the worst I think I can remember in its effect on the governing party’s popularity.

    I find the tories’ confidence rather baffling, though I think 3 things can explain some of it.

    1) labour’s leader is a serious liability. it’s difficult for many people to see him as PM, so there is the view that people will, in the privacy of the voting booth, vote against labour

    2) i think there’s a lot of ruling class, “don’t move till you see the whites of their eyes” bluster. I think some senior tories are probably more worried than they let on. Their outward confidence is reflected by the foot soldiers

    3) the economy is recovering and there’s a certain lazy view that it’s all about the economy.

    4) the print media remains solidly behind the tories. they spin positive stories and jump on the odd poll which shows them ahead…this is great for the morale of the Conservatives

    These are only some ideas, but I think the tories still remain very self confident, when all the data is pointing to some kind of centre-left coalition being the most likely outcome of the election.

  40. 4 things!

  41. I think that’s a very good analysis James. It remains to be seen whether their confidence is borne out on the morning of May 8.

  42. I agree with everything James has said.

    The Tories at the top table are absolutely deluded. More deluded than Labour using the ‘ horrible Tory cuts’ strategy to win the election. The lesser known backbench MPs and people like Davis and Bone know that they are pretty much doomed in May.

  43. I seem to recall that prior to the 1997 meltdown, Michael Heseltine was going round the country saying that the Conservatives were bound to retain power due to the improving economy. How much of it was said just to keep up the morale of the footsoldiers and how much was genuine misplaced confidence is hard to tell. Self delusion seems to be a common problem amongst senior politicians.

  44. I don’t think Duncan-Smith or May are deluded however…they appear to know things look grim.

    The delusion appears to be from the wishy washy Notting Hill gang who all seem to believe their own hype, namely Cameron, Shapps, Osborne, hunt and Gove.

  45. Lab gain 2500. Will be Labour from here until judgement day.

  46. hard to disagree fundamentally with any of your predictions l’ve seen so far, and almost all the larger number l’ve seen from Tory. Interesting how Croydon Central divided opinion a few months ago, but is now seen by the great majority of pundits as a likely Labour gain.

  47. Thank you, Barnaby. I think Ashcroft has rather spoiled the fun in seats like Croydon Central. It’s not a Con write off yet.

  48. ASHCROFT showed a LAB lead of 14% in October and back in January and February there were some confident predictions of a LAB GAIN. However – I am now saying CON HOLD.

    ****** CON HOLD *****

    An unexpected number of LAB voters last time, it is thought, will switch to De Bois who has shown a fair amount of independence.

    Also some evidence that Johnson has wooed the Turkish vote.

    And..As with some other seats (mainly in London) LAB will not take as many of the BAME votes as they are used to/hope to.

    LAB candidate not thought to be good/inspiring.

    Bring on the brickbats!

  49. Lab gain 4500.

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