Enfield North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19086 (41.4%)
Labour: 20172 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 1059 (2.3%)
Green: 1303 (2.8%)
UKIP: 4133 (9%)
TUSC: 177 (0.4%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1086 (2.4%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Enfield, Enfield Lock.

Profile: The northernmost seat in London, bounded by the M25 along its northern border, the Lee valley reservoirs to the east and the green belt countryside of Enfield Chase to the west. It is a varied seat, with very affluent, village like areas in the west of the seat and far more industrial areas and council blocks to the east of the seat by Enfield Lock.

Politics: A classic marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, with the more Labour east of the seat largely balancing out the more Conservative west.


Current MP
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010. First elected as MP for Enfield North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18804 (42%)
Lab: 17112 (38%)
LDem: 5403 (12%)
BNP: 1228 (3%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 1692 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16135 (40%)
Lab: 18055 (44%)
LDem: 4642 (11%)
BNP: 1004 (2%)
Oth: 913 (2%)
MAJ: 1920 (5%)
2001
Con: 15597 (41%)
Lab: 17888 (47%)
LDem: 3355 (9%)
BNP: 605 (2%)
Oth: 698 (2%)
MAJ: 2291 (6%)
1997
Con: 17326 (36%)
Lab: 24148 (51%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
Oth: 1074 (2%)
MAJ: 6822 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK DE BOIS (Conservative) Born 1959, Ely. Educated at Culford School. Managing director of a marketing communications company. Contested Stalybridge and Hyde 1997, Enfield North 2001, 2005. MP for Enfield North 2010 to 2015.
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010.
CARA JENKINSON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Cambridge University. Former IT manager, director of a community energy company.
DEBORAH CAIRNS (UKIP) Learning support assistant.
DAVID FLINT (Green) Educated at Handsworth Technical School and Imperial College. Retired management consultant.
YEMI AWOWLA (CPA)
JOE SIMPSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 325 Responses on “Enfield North”
  1. For Bobs benefit:

    Mayoral Vote in Finchley

    Finchley & Golders Green
    Con 20770 57.3%
    Lab 10243 28.2%
    Grn 1509 4.2%
    LD 1455 4.0%
    Ind 1681 4.6%
    UKIP 405 1.1%
    BNP 215 0.6%

  2. A lot of that came from Church End I think.
    Finchley is still quite strong for the Tories at each end of it but the two middle wards which were usually carried by the Tories in the Thatcher years are Labour leaning bar 2008 conditions.

  3. That was from Church End and Mayoral vote is not a good indicator. Try the Assembly seat. Labour took it off the Tories and would have needed Finchley and Golders’ Green to win.

  4. The polls show Labour as the clear favourites for Battersea, Finchley and Ilford N.

  5. “The polls show Labour as the clear favourites for Battersea, Finchley and Ilford N.”

    On the other hand, real elections as per the county council results had Labour only 3% ahead of the Tories even in mid term, on a pitiful 29% national equivalent vote share. That would not win them the likes of Battersea and Finchley.

  6. This is the flaw in your argument.
    1) Battersea, Finchley and Ilford North did not have County Council elections anyway.
    2) Labour lead is a lot stronger in London, than the rest of the country which is where the County Council elections were held.
    3) Labour lost the County Council elections in 1997.
    4) Labour actually made very strong gains in the marginal seats that it intends to win for eg. Harlow and Hastings and Rye (i.e. the likes of Battersea and Finchley).
    5) In the London elections, Labour took Barnet and Camden from the Tories – it needed a lot of support in Finchley to do that. It also mad every impressive swings in Havering and Redbridge and Merton and Wandsworth, particularly in marginals like Battersea and Ilford North – at one point, it looked likely Labour would take the Assembly seats but the Mayoral vote had an effect.
    6) Try again, HH.

  7. None are those are flaws in my argument because I was talking about the national vote share as calculated by Rallings & Thrasher.

    Obviously the ACTUAL vote shares had the Tories well ahead as most of the Labour dominated metropolitan areas didn’t have elections.

    Now don’t be late for school tomorrow.

  8. Work, you mean – please write properly.
    As I said, HH, you were talking about the national vote share for the COUNTY COUNCIL ELECTIONS, that does NOT include Battersea, Finchley and Golders’ Green and Ilford North. When you spit the dummy out of your mouth, you can tell that you are clearly rattled by your own stupidity. Look at the 6 points, I made again and look at the fallacy in your argument.

  9. Bob – the Barnet & Camden result was in part due to the massive unpopularity of Brian Coleman – he polled substantially worse than the Conservatives did in the list vote, and far worse than the mayoral vote.

  10. Yes very true, and Coleman’s unpopularity showed up a lot more in the Barnet results (where he’s a councillor) than in Camden where he has less of a profile.

  11. Absolutely right, Matt.

    I’ve got the GLA spreadsheet in front of me. On the list vote, the Conservatives carried Childs Hill, Finchley Church End, Garden Surburb and Golders Green. Labour carried West Finchley, East Finchley, and Woodhouse.

    By contrast, Coleman carried only Finchley Church End and Garden Suburb.

  12. On the list vote figures, I have the Conservatives leading Labour 10361 to 8489 in Finchley and Golders Green.

  13. Possibly the only time Labour will carry Golders Green, High Barnet and Mill Hill

  14. Labour was ahead by only 1.7% points in the Camden and Barnet list vote. By contrast, Dismore led Coleman 44.7% to 31.9% in the constituency vote. Strip out the Coleman effect and you have a reasonable Conservative performance.

  15. Agreed – Brian Coleman managed to carry the same number of Camden wards as Barnet wards (4 each)

  16. Ah, but you all accept that Labour was still ahead on the list vote. I am sure that Coleman’s unpopularity was a factor but not everyone knows who Coleman was at the time. The fact Labour was still ahead shows that actually, it was winning key votes in the seat of Finchley and Golders Green and managed to have key wards their. This is good news for Labour come 2015.

  17. Well of course Labour was just ahead on the list vote- nobody was disputing that. And while that was a good result for Labour, you cannot overlook the fact that the Barnet and Camden constituency includes Holborn and St Pancras, the bulk of Hampstead and Kilburn and the ultra-marginal, Labour-trending Hendon.

    And to repeat, the Conservatives led in Finchley and Golders Green by 1872 on a lowish turnout in a poor year for the party. I’m sorry but that is no basis for concluding that Labour is poised for victory there.

  18. On the other place, Pete has full’ list’ figures for Finchley and Golders Green- adjusted to include postal votes.

    Finchley & Golders Green
    Con 15832 43.7%
    Lab 12137 33.5%
    Grn 3044 8.4%
    LD 2461 6.8%
    UKIP 1219 3.4%
    BNP 302 0.8%
    CPA 427 1.2%
    Oth 794 2.2%

  19. @Tory – Yes, and Labour had all those areas with two ultra-marginals and guess what, it never held Barnet and Camden. It gained Barnet and Camden and clearly voters in Finchley and Golders’ Green had an effect. The polls show Labour is poised for victory there, I think there is work to do but at the moment it is a more likely prospect than Mike Freer holding his seat.

  20. If the Tory losses to UKIP were greater than those lost by Labour then it follows that the Labour lead would have been even less, should the UKIP vote fall back, and evenly in ratio to where it came from.

    But I’m not sure whether there is evidence it hit the Tories all that much more
    nor do I assume they will fall back easily.

  21. I was suspicious about the supposed ‘national projection’ because it appeared to assume that UKIP support would be as high in the urban centres and underestimated Labour’s strength there.

    Its getting more and more difficult to do these things because the country is just voting so differently in terms of geography

  22. Andrea, do you know who is on the shortlist for this seat?

  23. @Bob, finally got the full shortlist:

    Joan Ryan
    Feryal Demirci (Hackney Cllr)
    Ayfer Orhan (Enfield Cllr, Hemel Hempstead 2010 GE candidate)
    Annajoy David (entrepreneur from Ilford, 2010 GE candidate in Scarborough and Whitby)
    Jayne Buckland (Edmonton Cllr)

    Let’s say that there’s a vocal anti Ryan faction within the CLP ….

    Selection in on Sunday.

  24. A proportional allocation might have produced a better UKIP share. E.g. if there vote is up 3 fold in the shires make it up 3 fold in the cities.

  25. MerseysideMike: usually Rallings and Thrasher do a pretty good job with the national projections but their effort this year did look a bit suspect for the reasons you give. It’s true that UKIP do tend to do very well in some urban areas like Hull and Dudley but in most places they struggle to reach 10% of the vote, especially London and Scotland.

  26. Maybe Labour could have added 1 pc or 2 pc to their projection – to about 31%.
    Big deal.

    Or maybe the figures are right anyway because they do aim to account for this.

    It’s the most lousy performance by a principle opposition since ….since 1982 – at least.

  27. Although to be fair
    all parties were affected by UKIP coming in and some of the factors behind these results were unusual – so Labour ‘s share along with the others needs to be seen in context – they would be expected to do better than that.

  28. Jayne Buckland also stood in Wellingborough in 2010 (and did badly, though not as badly as Ayfer Orhan in Hemel Hempstead)

  29. Any news on who got selected for Labour?

  30. Joan Ryan has been selected as Labour candidate!!

  31. No she hasn’t.

  32. Either Labour get rid of Joan Ryan through the Renewal in Enfield campaign or they will lose to Nick de Bois. She can’t come back she is toxic waste. I blame the NEC, if there was an open shortlist it would not have happened.

  33. “No she hasn’t”

    I think you will find she has!

    feryal demirci ‏@feryaldemirci 5m Thank you Enfield North for hosting me for the last 3 months, lovely people and great place. Congrats to @joanryan_EN2

  34. I think Labour would have won this seat no matter who had been selected (within reason of course), but I think Ryan’s selection makes de Bois’s job in holding on well-nigh impossible. Assuming she has actually won that is.

  35. Well, unless Feryal Demirci has put out a false tweet…..

  36. I would have thought Ryan was a very questionable choice for all sorts of reasons.

  37. I would have thought Ryan is exactly the candidate the tories would prefer to face too. A very rare occasion where I don’t see the logic behind Barnaby’s post.

    Her expenses claims were pretty disgraceful. Indeed, having a second home while being a member for a London constituency will seem extremely cheeky.

  38. Sadly it made no difference to Labour’s vote in 2010 so it is extremely unlikely to do so in 2015.

    This is one of the very few seats where a Labour gain is a 100% certainty. The only doubt is whether their majority will be above or below 5000.

  39. Not 5000 but an almost certain loss.
    The 2012 results sadly confirm that.
    Other than this one, I think Labour supporters are being far too optimistic about the election.

  40. I would agree with you on that last point.

    The commentators outside London do not appreciate how sticky London seats have become.

    Aside from exceptions like Enfield North, where demographics have changed very fast since 2010, there just aren’t the swing voters in most of the London marginals to give the impressive swings that we see in new towns and middle England marginals. And also of course, UKIP will have very limited impact in London compared with elsewhere.

    It will all be about turnout of solid blocks of supporters on either side.

  41. I have a feeling we can deal with UKIP – they’ll score about 7% in the GE
    but they also wrong foot the other parties aswell – very complicated in it’s effect.

    I think the number of marginals in London has fallen for 2 reasons – demographic change mainly towards Labour for the obvious reasons – but not everywhere – not in about a quarter to third of it
    and
    very high costs related to business based electorate which gives the Tories a solid presence – but admitedly not what it was.

  42. Yes. The support the Tories have left in London is basically all core vote.

  43. Agree with both of those last points. A large chunk of Tory voters have moved out of London are have been replaced by Labour’s new core vote that they spent a decade importing.

  44. We should encourage these voters not to think of themselves as victims.
    The left are very skilful at playing it.

  45. Oh, for goodness sake – stop complaining

    If Tory voters choose to move because they don’t like black people, so be it.

    If black people choose to vote Labour – well, reading this thread, can you blame them??

  46. Well as a right-on homosexual in the north you do not have to worry about your kids growing up in London do you. So I’m not surprised at your glib simplification of very complex trends and slurring millions of people as racists without any evidence.

    In my own case our own impending departure from central London is nothing to do with our black or Eastern European neighbours, who all seem perfectly nice people. It has everything to do with the unsuitability of bringing up a toddler in a flat, and the awful standard of the schools locally. Yet in just one week on the market we sold our flat for £310,000 which will buy a nice house with a garden 30 miles out. We have taken advantage of a lunatic housing market to improve the quality of our son’s life and I suspect many other Tory inclined voters have done the same.

  47. I wouldn’t expect anything less from Mike.

  48. I’m with Merseymike.

    To say as one poster above has that Labour is “importing their “new core vote” is coming very close to the language of the extreme right.

  49. And so you have made your choice. Its clear, though, that many people do want to live in London hence you sold your flat very quickly.

    I agree entirely about a lunatic housing market but that’s largely down to the obsession with home ownership and the overheated nature of London and the south-east.

    Clearly if you want a Home Counties lifestyle, then that’s where you choose to live. Nothing would ever convince me to do the same but then my life is different from yours.

    However – don’t black and minority ethnic people live in families? Perhaps they don’t have the same concerns about their kids growing up in London?

    It does appear that all you Tories do is moan about how terrible it is that you are all crowding into already-safe Tory seats making it easier for Labour. I think people tend to live alongside those with similar values and interests – which means I wouldn’t touch the Home Counties with a bargepole, but also means many conservative people may opt to move out of the cities

  50. I don’t have kids but I appreciate where you are coming from – good for you and I hope you have a better life in your new place.

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