Enfield North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19086 (41.4%)
Labour: 20172 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 1059 (2.3%)
Green: 1303 (2.8%)
UKIP: 4133 (9%)
TUSC: 177 (0.4%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1086 (2.4%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Enfield, Enfield Lock.

Profile: The northernmost seat in London, bounded by the M25 along its northern border, the Lee valley reservoirs to the east and the green belt countryside of Enfield Chase to the west. It is a varied seat, with very affluent, village like areas in the west of the seat and far more industrial areas and council blocks to the east of the seat by Enfield Lock.

Politics: A classic marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, with the more Labour east of the seat largely balancing out the more Conservative west.


Current MP
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010. First elected as MP for Enfield North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18804 (42%)
Lab: 17112 (38%)
LDem: 5403 (12%)
BNP: 1228 (3%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 1692 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16135 (40%)
Lab: 18055 (44%)
LDem: 4642 (11%)
BNP: 1004 (2%)
Oth: 913 (2%)
MAJ: 1920 (5%)
2001
Con: 15597 (41%)
Lab: 17888 (47%)
LDem: 3355 (9%)
BNP: 605 (2%)
Oth: 698 (2%)
MAJ: 2291 (6%)
1997
Con: 17326 (36%)
Lab: 24148 (51%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
Oth: 1074 (2%)
MAJ: 6822 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK DE BOIS (Conservative) Born 1959, Ely. Educated at Culford School. Managing director of a marketing communications company. Contested Stalybridge and Hyde 1997, Enfield North 2001, 2005. MP for Enfield North 2010 to 2015.
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010.
CARA JENKINSON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Cambridge University. Former IT manager, director of a community energy company.
DEBORAH CAIRNS (UKIP) Learning support assistant.
DAVID FLINT (Green) Educated at Handsworth Technical School and Imperial College. Retired management consultant.
YEMI AWOWLA (CPA)
JOE SIMPSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 325 Responses on “Enfield North”
1 2 3 7
  1. I wonder if Pete could let us have notional results for the Enfield East and Edmonton on the 1970 boundaries from 1974 onwards.

  2. From a Conservative point of view it’s a real shame that Bush Hill Park cannot be added into this seat with Southbury given to Edmonton instead. That would enable the Tories to have a much better chance of holding this seat.

    Bush Hill Park ward has much more in common with Chase and Town rather than anywhere in Edmonton and Bush Hill Park itself is very much a suburb of Enfield.
    Southbury is next door to Ponders End and very much in common with the rest of Edmonton.

    Wishful thinking on my part I know!

    This is also a seat which I think is not reacting very well to Cameron’s conservatism.

  3. “I wonder if Pete could let us have notional results for the Enfield East and Edmonton on the 1970 boundaries from 1974 onwards.”

    Richard there were no boundary changes to Edmonton in 1974 and the changes in 1983, though electorally significant, were not major enough to make comparisons worthwhile.
    I can give you Enfield East though

    Feb-74

    Lab 14276 46.8%
    Con 8373 27.4%
    Lib 7056 23.1%
    Oth 828 2.7%

    Oct-74

    Lab 14407 51.9%
    Con 7798 28.1%
    Lib 4632 16.7%
    Oth 918 3.3%

    1979

    Lab 14741 49.1%
    Con 12605 42.0%
    Lib 2116 7.0%
    Oth 561 1.9%

    1983

    Con 14446 47.2%
    Lab 10171 33.2%
    Lib 5629 18.4%
    Oth 385 1.3%

    1987

    Con 16395 50.9%
    Lab 10915 33.9%
    Lib 4504 14.0%
    Oth 401 1.2%

    1992

    Con 15653 47.8%
    Lab 13324 40.7%
    Lib 3420 10.4%
    Oth 352 1.1%

    1997

    Lab 16516 57.1%
    Con 9683 33.5%
    Lib 2194 7.6%
    Oth 516 1.8%

    2001

    Lab 12440 52.8%
    Con 8528 36.2%
    Lib 1640 7.0%
    Oth 961 4.1%

    2005

    Lab 12681 50.1%
    Con 8960 35.4%
    Lib 2443 9.7%
    Oth 1225 4.8%

    2010

    Lab 14307 49.7%
    Con 9462 32.9%
    Lib 2941 10.2%
    Oth 2065 7.2%

    It therefore fits into the classic pattern of outer London seats which were traditionally safe for Labour, held in 1979 but swung heavily to the Tories in 1983 and were held by them in 1992 but had reverted to safe Labour status by 2010 – see also hayes & Harlington, Mitcham & Morden and for that mattter Edmonton. Erith & Crayford would also be part of this group, excpet that it would have been gained by the Tories in 2010

  4. That would have been a very good Conservative performance in 1992.

  5. There was a swing to the Conservatives between the 1967 and 1970 GLC elections in Enfield, Barnet and Harrow.

    Does anyone have an idea why this happened?

  6. Thanks for those figures, Pete. If you don’t mind me asking, how would the old Enfield West have voted in those elections?

    Incidentally, I really can’t see de Bois hanging on here.

    By contrast, David Burrowes seems to have stopped the rot in Southgate- two very good swings in 2005 and 2010 to reverse at least some of the erosion between 1992 and 2001.

  7. I can only go back to 1983 for Enfield West as I haven’t got figures for the Hertfordshire seats before then (something I ought to do some time)

    1983

    Con 26321 63.3%
    Lib 8640 20.8%
    Lab 6060 14.6%
    Oth 533 1.3%

    1987

    Con 28734 66.1%
    Lib 7874 18.1%
    Lab 6499 14.9%
    Oth 379 0.9%

    1992

    Con 28819 65.8%
    Lab 8514 19.4%
    Lib 6039 13.8%
    Oth 432 1.0%

    1997

    Con 18832 47.1%
    Lab 15158 37.9%
    Lib 4891 12.2%
    Oth 1093 2.7%

    2001

    Con 16919 50.3%
    Lab 12132 36.0%
    Lib 3800 11.3%
    Oth 803 2.4%

    2005

    Con 18517 53.1%
    Lab 10162 29.1%
    Lib 5110 14.7%
    Oth 1080 3.1%

    2010

    Con 21076 54.7%
    Lab 9369 24.3%
    Lib 5605 14.5%
    Oth 2476 6.4%

  8. Thanks, Pete. Considerable erosion in the Tory position then, but still a much better seat than either ‘North or ‘Southgate. How much of the old seat is now in Enfield North (and is any of it now in Southgate for that matter)?

  9. Slightly over half is in Enfield North – basically the Chase, Highlands and Town wards. The northern parts of Cockfosters and Grange wards in the Southgate constituency were in Enfield West and of course it included Potters Bar now in Hertsmere

  10. Interesting. It suggests that some kind of west-east split would probably be in the Tories’ best interests if Enfield North becomes hopeless. It would make for a safer version of Southgate depending on which wards you used (obviously they would all have to be Enfield wards). I know that such an arrangement wouldn’t necessarily be feasible but I am talking hypothetically.

  11. I never realised that Potters Bar was in Enfield W – I had thought that it was in Barnet for some reason. That makes Cecil Parkinson’s switch from Enfield W to S Herts (nowadays Hertsmere) much more logical after the 1974 boundary changes.

  12. Since I’m still working, and I’ve been on holiday I haven’t been able to fully absorb the 2011 census yet. However Enfield is one of the areas showing the most demographic change. This looks like trouble for the Conservatives at the next election, with a worse performance relative to the national swing, as indeed we saw in 2010.

  13. John: agree re Enfield North. I think it’s a stick-on Labour gain. The interesting thing is that Southgate has behaved rather differently in 2005 and 2010 but we’ll have to see if that is just a temporary reprieve for the Conservatives.

  14. Logically it would seem odd if Southgate is seeing a genuine reversal of its previous large-scale pro-Labour demographic change. Nevertheless it isn’t impossible. I wouldn’t rule out a Labour win there yet, though I accept it looks like & probably is a very long shot.

  15. Potters Bar was in Enfield West as, of course, like Enfield, it was part of Middlesex.

    The Barnet seat was in Herts and included, until 1974, Borehamwood (and before the 50s, Hatfield).

    Barnet and Enfield joined Greater London in 1965, and PB was hived off to Hertfordshire, akin to how Staines et al were sent to Surrey (although unlike Staines, Ashford and Sunbury the Postal Country for Potters Bar WAS changed (why???))

    I think the good schools and attractive environment is helping to keep Southgate OK for the Conservatives…it rather mirrors those nearby areas of Barnet. However, there are more swing voters in this general area than there were years ago…the recent by-election result in adjacent Brunswick Park ward in Barnet LB being a case in point.

    The solid, 100% down-the-line Conservative voters have largely gone to places like Brookmans Park, although the opulent Hadley Wood (Cockfosters) retains a significant proportion of these.

    There are lots of Greek Cypriots in the Southgate seat, and increasing numbers of Turkish Cypriots in Enfield North. The Cyprus question is very big politically in this part of London…

  16. Enfield North is a clear win for Labour. Nick de Bois is an assiduous constituency MP but being a good MP cannot save you in a seat like this. The same goes for Gavin Barwell. Does anyone know who has gone for selection here?

  17. I would have thought Jayne Buckland and Ayfer Orhan along with Joan Ryan. Any preferences Bob?

  18. No. What about Joanne McCartney?

  19. Joan Ryan is contesting the selection. Another contender is Hackney Cllr Feryal Demirci.

  20. Thanks, but Labour would be wrong to re-select Joan Ryan. She could help out in the General Election Campaign.

  21. I like Joan Ryan, she’s a good woman and a great campaigner especially on the work she did on No To AV. She should not stand again, especially since Labour has reselected too many former MPs to contest their old seats. I think on that basis, Feryal Demirci will win and she’d be a good choice.

  22. Considering Joan Ryan was the MP for the seat from 1997-2010 I don’t see anything wrong in her contesting the seat again. She must have been a good MP as although she lost in 2010 De Bois’ majority was pretty small.

    As many have said before, this seat will become a safe Labour banker in the not too distant future. East Enfield and Ponders End have gone rapidly downhill, which has helped Labour here.

  23. Ponders End is of course in Edmonton. If it were in Enfield North the Tories would never have won it in 2010.

    What you are saying about “East Enfield” is of course correct. It is an example of that old Victorian saying about “the wrong side of the tracks” – the division in Enfield both politically and socially is east and west of the London to Cambridge rail line.

  24. Too many ex-MPs (Sally Keeble, Paul Clark, Bob Blizzard, Anne Snelgrove, David Drew and Patrick Hall) have been reselected. Some of them have been good MPs, but some should not have stood again but instead could have made way for others to stand. Two more MPs Nick Palmer and Andrew Dismore will be reselected in their old seats. MPs like Dawn Butler, Parmjit Dhanda, Claire Ward, Mike Foster and possibly Tony McNulty and Kitty Ussher, finding new seats around the country. That leaves a total of 14 former Labour MPs returning to Parliament, most of whom would have been fighting their old seats. It’s a bit depressing as there are younger, rising stars in the party. Joan Ryan is good, but her talents could be used elsewhere like the General Election Campaign. She’s had 13 years, let a fresh face have a go.

  25. Also, there are some very good former MPs like Andrew Pelling and James Purnell, who would have been welcome talent but they’ve moved on. Surely others can do the same.

  26. I agree that it’s seldom wise to try again in the same seat, once you’ve been kicked out by that electorate

    There are a vfew MPs who have succesfully done it – right-wing populist David Evernett who after a couple of second attempts, retook his old Crayford seat, and of course Euroskeptic Bob Spink who won back Canvey Island in 2001, and Henry Bellingham who retook his old Kings Lynn seat in Norfolk – but mostly the evidence suggests the electorate don’t like it

  27. I don’t really see that evidence. You are only using examples from post-1997, when it took the Tories a decade to make any real seat gains compared with 97. Very few defeated candidates would have been willing or able to stand again for their old seat 3 or 4 times.

    However in the 1970s, when power shifted between the parties much more quickly, it was much more common to successfully stand again after defeat. With Labour likely to make gains next time it’s not unreasonable for those who lost only narrowly such as Joan Ryan to wish to stand again. To be honest a monkey with a red rosette on would be able to win this seat for Labour next time.

  28. a monkey with a red rosette on would be able to win this seat for Labour next time.

    …careful you sound like Bob now

  29. ‘…careful you sound like Bob now’.

    H Hemmelig reserves confident predictions for seats which actually warrant confident predictions. This is surely one of them.

  30. Haha…yes I think a Labour gain here is a pretty sure bet, and I say that out of sorrow, as Nick de Bois has been an assiduous constituency MP and has been very loyal to the seat by standing several times when he could have abandoned it for somewhere safer.

    But as LBernard says, the demographic changes have been substantial, and point to it inevitably becoming a safe Labour seat within a short period of time. Take the Stansted Express out of Liverpool Street or drive into London on the A10 to see how the area has changed remarkably fast.

  31. ” It’s a bit depressing as there are younger, rising stars in the party”

    Like who? Nearly all political careerists in my experience. At least some of the older hands have some life experience outside of the Commons, some of it gained in the last few years. Selecting ‘rising stars’ (I assume you mean candidates in the mould of Jessica Asato) is generally to the detriment of parliament as a whole.

  32. ‘But as LBernard says, the demographic changes have been substantial, and point to it inevitably becoming a safe Labour seat within a short period of time. Take the Stansted Express out of Liverpool Street or drive into London on the A10 to see how the area has changed remarkably fast.’

    I’ve never been to Enfield, but demographically it seems to be changing in the way Croydon is, although having known Croydon from the early 1980s, it’s less the fact that its a Labour-leaning town now that surprises, but more the fact that it was one-time a Tory stronghold, as for as long as I can remember it has always been a complete and utter dump

    I’d never imagined Enfield to be quite as bad although it’s worth remebering that De Bois won this on one of the smallest swings of the night in 2010 – and looks certain to be brown bread in 2015, unless the Tories have a Falklands moment – which i’m sure their brightest strategists are busily trying to engineer as the clock ticks

  33. No seat containing the centre of Croydon has been a Tory stronghold since WWII, except during the 80s & in 1992. The Tories used to be slightly stronger in the north of the borough than in the centre, but not that much so.

  34. Yes. The biggest change has been away from the centre in the northern suburbs like Beulah Hill, Norbury and Norwood, which used to be strongly Tory, balancing out Labour strength in Thornton Heath, Selhurst and the town centre.

  35. I’d admit this seat looks almost impossible bar a falklands moment or a boom. But I think the tories can hold everythging else in the caspital, despite demographic pressures. They did not do all that well in 2010 and an expensive hub will see some solidity imn the voting bloclks too

  36. If lucky, might be 5th time lucky in sutton. I’m not sure about westminster north and hammersmith. Labour would surely hold them tomorrow

  37. I think Sutton & Cheam will turn out to be another Eastleigh.

    Carshalton will be more interesting because of the large natural Labour vote there. If it were to desert the Lib Dems en-masse then it would change things radically and maybe allow the Tories to win on 30-35% of the vote. But on balance I think it’s unlikely.

  38. “But I think the tories can hold everythging else in the caspital, despite demographic pressures. They did not do all that well in 2010 and an expensive hub will see some solidity imn the voting bloclks too”

    The other thing in the Tories’ favour is that UKIP don’t have any potential in London except in very safe seats in Havering, Bexley and Bromley. This is the one part of England where UKIP are unlikely to harm the Tories’ chances in their key marginal seats.

  39. ‘Carshalton will be more interesting because of the large natural Labour vote there. If it were to desert the Lib Dems en-masse then it would change things radically and maybe allow the Tories to win on 30-35% of the vote. But on balance I think it’s unlikely.’

    That’s true but i think tactical voting has become so ingrained amongst the soft-left in these affluent South West London seats that I don’t see voters deserting the Lib Dems for Labour en-masse.

    Incumbancy also counts and all of the MPs representing these seats have been in their jobs since 1997. The so-called experts have been predicting their demise in every subsequent election but it most cases they enjoyed larger majorities in 2010 than when first elected in 1997

  40. Yes I basically agree with that. But the tactical voting in Carshalton is much more recent than in the rest of SW London, only really occurring substantially in 2010. Before 2010 Labour were getting 20-25% of the vote and the Lib Dem majority was very small. The St Helier area accounts for most of the Labour potential and as its demographics become more ethnically mixed it will be much harder for the Lib Dems to win over Labour voters there.

  41. Other than here, I see four London seats where Labour are close behind the Tories: Hendon, Brentford & Isleworth, Croydon Central and Harrow East. Their vote share is likely to rise in every one, even if it’s just squeezing the Lib Dem vote.

    In Hendon, this means the Tories also need to increase their share to win, and that doesn’t look likely to me (no expert on London politics). The other three all could well be holds, depending on how much the Tories lose to UKIP and how the economy is doing at the time, but the chances of holding all three of them don’t look great to me.

  42. You’re right on Hendon, with another difficult factor for the Tories being that the quite popular and well-established Andrew Dismore is standing again for Labour.

    As I’ve said many times on here I would rate the Tories at a slightly better than 50:50 chance of holding Croydon Central.

    I think they’ve a slightly better chance of holding Brentford and Harrow East.

    UKIP does not really have any potential in any of these seats, even as a spoiler.

  43. One does rather sense a lack of enthusiasm for Labour and an inability to match the opinion poll ratings, or anywhere near.
    But of course, a majority Labour government on perhaps slightly lower share of the vote than the Tories in 1997 is no longer a joke possibility.

  44. If that happens our whole system will fall into disrepute, and Ed Miliband’s government will simply through lack of any moral authority be the weakest and most incompetent government since the war.

    London is now core vote territory for both main parties, so the marginal will be decided by demographic changes and turnout.

  45. HHEMMELIG, there is a fault in your argument. You claim that Ed Miliband is going to be in government, but you think the Tories will hold onto Croydon Central, Brentford and Isleworth and Harrow East. It is absolute nonsense, Ed wins here or loses the election. Make up your mind.
    As I said seats Labour will take seats off the Tories at this rate: Hendon, Brentford and Isleworth, Croydon Central, Enfield North, Ealing Central and Acton, Harrow East, Ilford North, Battersea and Finchley and Golders Green. Come the election, Battersea, Finchley and Golders Green and Ilford North will be the most contentious and hotly fought. All depends on 2014 really.

  46. Labour won;t come close to winning Battersea or Finchley. I highly doubt that they will win Ealing Central & Acton. Brentford & Isleworth, Croydon Central and Harrow East will be close

  47. Even more sanity coming into the discussion. I’ll have to have a lie down in a minute.

  48. I apologise to anyone I’ve been bad tempered with on these threads recently.
    It can be quite tough going as one of the few defenders of the Government.

  49. Pete, I suggest you actually look at the polls and look at the actual psephology. Unless there is a miracle between now and the next election, Brentford & Isleworth, Croydon Central, Harrow East and Ealing Central & Acton are very likely to be won by Labour that is without any doubt. We should all count Hendon as a Labour seat, just for the avoidance of doubt. I also suggest, Pete, you look at the polls, Ashcroft’s survey and polling average and right now Labour are the favourites to take Ilford North, Finchley and Golders Green and Battersea BUT it will be a close fight. It will be a close fight in those three seats, you are just wrong.

  50. No Labour are not favourites to take Battersea (or Finchley to a lesser extent, Ilford probably being a matter of opinion).

    How much would you like to bet at evens Bob?

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