Enfield North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19086 (41.4%)
Labour: 20172 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 1059 (2.3%)
Green: 1303 (2.8%)
UKIP: 4133 (9%)
TUSC: 177 (0.4%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1086 (2.4%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Enfield, Enfield Lock.

Profile: The northernmost seat in London, bounded by the M25 along its northern border, the Lee valley reservoirs to the east and the green belt countryside of Enfield Chase to the west. It is a varied seat, with very affluent, village like areas in the west of the seat and far more industrial areas and council blocks to the east of the seat by Enfield Lock.

Politics: A classic marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, with the more Labour east of the seat largely balancing out the more Conservative west.


Current MP
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010. First elected as MP for Enfield North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18804 (42%)
Lab: 17112 (38%)
LDem: 5403 (12%)
BNP: 1228 (3%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 1692 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16135 (40%)
Lab: 18055 (44%)
LDem: 4642 (11%)
BNP: 1004 (2%)
Oth: 913 (2%)
MAJ: 1920 (5%)
2001
Con: 15597 (41%)
Lab: 17888 (47%)
LDem: 3355 (9%)
BNP: 605 (2%)
Oth: 698 (2%)
MAJ: 2291 (6%)
1997
Con: 17326 (36%)
Lab: 24148 (51%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
Oth: 1074 (2%)
MAJ: 6822 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK DE BOIS (Conservative) Born 1959, Ely. Educated at Culford School. Managing director of a marketing communications company. Contested Stalybridge and Hyde 1997, Enfield North 2001, 2005. MP for Enfield North 2010 to 2015.
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010.
CARA JENKINSON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Cambridge University. Former IT manager, director of a community energy company.
DEBORAH CAIRNS (UKIP) Learning support assistant.
DAVID FLINT (Green) Educated at Handsworth Technical School and Imperial College. Retired management consultant.
YEMI AWOWLA (CPA)
JOE SIMPSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 337 Responses on “Enfield North”
  1. Alex F’s rather selective presentation of the result made me grin. Not a huge surprise for me- I think London is going to be a struggle for the Conservatives.

  2. “I think London is going to be a struggle for the Conservatives.”

    I agree overall, but there will be a marked difference between inner and outer London.

    I think the Tories will do relatively well in outer London, where Brexit isn’t such a negative and inn areas where a large part of the BME vote is of the type which might not like Corbyn (ie. not overwhelmingly muslim).

    I expect a fairly easy Tory hold in Croydon Central and would make them favourites to gain Enfield North and Ilford North, and probably Eltham and Carshalton. Dagenham is probably out of reach now.

    Inner London will be much less forgiving. I think the Tories may well fall short in most and maybe all of the Labour marginals here – Westminster N, Brentford, Ealing Central, Tooting. A few weeks ago I expected a clean sweep by the Lib Dems in their three SW London targets but that now seems much less likely given how their campaign has generally tanked and tacked left.

  3. Plus Harrow West – I’d rank it with Eltham and Carshalton as a probable Tory win.

  4. I think the Tories will win Ilford N, Harrow W, Eltham, and Carshalton. They will probably lose to the LDs in Twickenham but I am increasingly confident about Kingston and Richmond Park.

  5. Hampsteads a likely hold. I think we’ll begin to see in the next few years the lack of tory members/activists begin to impact their election performances. In the marginal seats in particular they’re really struggling on the ground.
    Several people have said that the reason that there wasnt a proper leadership election was that the tories didn’t want to expose their lack of members.

  6. I’m in Kingston & Surbiton fairly often and it does still have a very Lib Dem feel to it, especially in the more down at heel bits like Tolworth. Surbiton has come a long way downhill since the 1970s when it was iconic stockbroker belt suburbia and home to Margot Leadbetter. The Lib Dems will be very disappointed if they don’t win it and in some ways it has a more naturally Lib Dem electorate than Twickenham these days, which is drifting towards the banker-inclined electorate which already dominates Richmond Park. On QT last night Cable looked old and tired, I can’t imagine why he wants to get back into parliament amongst a rump of 10 or less MPs.

  7. HH
    “On QT last night Cable looked old and tired, I can’t imagine why he wants to get back into parliament amongst a rump of 10 or less MPs”

    Knowing Cable he’s probably hoping that his name still holds some clout in the seat after just two years absence and after winning it back he can pass it on to a young buck at some point it the nearish future when the Tories aren’t riding as high in the polls.

  8. @Quint

    Labour also had a big ground advantage in 2015 and it didn’t help very much then.

    I pretty much agree with HH’s analysis. The polling trend over the last couple of weeks (Lab up at expense of LDs and Greens) suggests to me that Corbyn-sceptic ‘progressives’, of which there are many in inner London, will mostly stick with Labour. That makes Con gains in the inner London marginals, where there is very little UKIP vote to squeeze, very challenging. However, the outer London Lab/Con marginals (except Ealing C&A) are mostly seats where the Brexit vote was fairly balanced and the Cons stand very good chances.

  9. I know, it’s because the Tories have all the money. Apparently if you volunteer for them you get a goody bag. Am quite tempted myself.

    Would agree with HH analysis too. Is there any merit in the court case in Bermondsey? Had read Hughes was being sued?

  10. HH
    “On QT last night Cable looked old and tired, I can’t imagine why he wants to get back into parliament amongst a rump of 10 or less MPs”

    Good analysis but poor on psychology. Nobody likes to end their career a loser. Vince’s career would have ended with a whimper, losing to a relatively young, she was 50, totally inexperienced tory candidate.

    he want to write a last chapter to a political career which was fairly eminent.

    I think twickers is the only seat in london the liberal will gain. they are running a poor campaign.

    The focus of the campaign doesn’ t help them. the two party system funnily enough is reasserting itself. the lab + con vote share will be higher than it’s been in ages, and all the talk of a tory landslide helps labour as the best placed party to stop this. libs, ukip, greens etc. are being squeezed badly in this cycle.

  11. Not surprised to see Quint’s comments about lack of Tory troops. “In the marginal seats in particular they’re really struggling on the ground.” I live in Enfield North and have received no election literature other than a missive from Joan Ryan through the post shortly after the election was called. I live in a Tory ward but there’s been nothing from them whatsoever. The local Tory councillor group seems to be ageing with few younger ones coming through unlike their Labour opponents.

  12. The You Gove estimate has Labour 2% ahead – too close to call. The position in Enfield Southgate is very similar.

  13. Is it Nick de Bois’ turn here this time?!

  14. I suspect Labour will hold here now, unfortunately as Nick de Bois is by far the superior candidate.

  15. One unforeseen consequence of the Tory poll collapse being that Tories who only narrowly lost last time (de Bois, Scott, Macleod) thought they would re-gain those seats easily only to find that they are now most likely Labour holds. I bet they are wishing they’d gone for safer seats now as McVey has done.

  16. “It’s a pity, as de Bois was the better of the two Tory MPs in Enfield.”

    A much better fit for his seat as well. David Burrowes with his religious right kind of conservatism has always been a poor fit with a liberal urbane seat like Southgate, he’d be much better off in a rural seat in somewhere like Cumbria.

  17. Enfield North is down as a Tory gain in bookie land. 8/13, 4/7, 2/5 are some of the quotes. Think that’s about right. Tory activists on the ground seem quietly confident on this one.

    By contrast, Ealing Central and Brentford are substantially less promising on the ground for the blues.

  18. Hell, I’m not even sure of Croydon Central for Labour. There was a solid UKIP vote that’s definitely more likely to go massively to the Tories in a place like Londo, not to mention the seat’s relatively high leave vote.

    [email protected]A, H&K, B&I on the other hand…

  19. “Hell, I’m not even sure of Croydon Central for Labour.”

    I’ve always had Croydon Central down as a Con hold though it will now be closer than I originally expected. Much of the seat is not Corbyn friendly at all and I highly doubt he’ll be picking up the high 2015 UKIP vote from New Addington.

    Peter is right, the Tories have a much better chance in Enfield and Croydon than in inner London marginals like Ealing and Brentford.

  20. “Oh well. If Burrowes doesn’t lose on Thursday he’ll lose in 2022 I reckon.”

    I think Southgate has too many million pound houses and city workers worried about their tax bills to vote for Labour under Corbyn. As in Battersea, people will vote Tory through gritted teeth.

  21. You mean if a seat voted for Goldsmith *or* Brexit?

    Probably not a bad rule though we might see exceptions in places like Harrow and/or SW London.

    The Tories are lucky that they have few marginal seats left to lose in London, compared with the 1980s.

  22. Don’t be so sure about Dagenham. I think it will be close but labour will hold.

    The May u turn would not have gone down well with authoritarian working class labour voters, among whom she polled very well at the beginning of the campaign.

    If there is a surprise when the exit poll is released at 10.01 on Thursday, it will be on the upside for the Tories. I think it’s more likely to say Tories 379 than Tories 322 (hung parliament, basically)… But let’s see.

  23. Joan Ryan’s majority is now over 11,000. It was only a little over 2,000 in 2001. I suspect that going forward it will be v difficult for the Cons to get close again.

  24. The truth of the matter is that a major swing in one direction can unwind by the next election, as a number of Scottish seats have shown in 2017 (or, the pendulum being three dimensional, might see a swing to a new place altogether).

    To me, Mrs May’s arrogance in the last 24-48 hours – not saying in front of No10 ‘we hear the message from the voters and will heed it’, or ‘I have not received the mandate I asked for’, but instead acting as if the election had not happened – is not a good start in the re-evaluation the Tories need to do, if they are to avoid a ‘last days of John Major’ scenario. But while I can note the astounding Labour result here, I also have to note that just two elections ago, in 2010, this was a Tory gain. It’s not reasonable to sit back and assume that this is a seat they can never win again, and Labour needs to be aware of that.

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