Enfield North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19086 (41.4%)
Labour: 20172 (43.7%)
Lib Dem: 1059 (2.3%)
Green: 1303 (2.8%)
UKIP: 4133 (9%)
TUSC: 177 (0.4%)
Others: 207 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1086 (2.4%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Enfield, Enfield Lock.

Profile: The northernmost seat in London, bounded by the M25 along its northern border, the Lee valley reservoirs to the east and the green belt countryside of Enfield Chase to the west. It is a varied seat, with very affluent, village like areas in the west of the seat and far more industrial areas and council blocks to the east of the seat by Enfield Lock.

Politics: A classic marginal seat between Labour and the Conservatives, with the more Labour east of the seat largely balancing out the more Conservative west.


Current MP
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010. First elected as MP for Enfield North in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18804 (42%)
Lab: 17112 (38%)
LDem: 5403 (12%)
BNP: 1228 (3%)
Oth: 1906 (4%)
MAJ: 1692 (4%)
2005*
Con: 16135 (40%)
Lab: 18055 (44%)
LDem: 4642 (11%)
BNP: 1004 (2%)
Oth: 913 (2%)
MAJ: 1920 (5%)
2001
Con: 15597 (41%)
Lab: 17888 (47%)
LDem: 3355 (9%)
BNP: 605 (2%)
Oth: 698 (2%)
MAJ: 2291 (6%)
1997
Con: 17326 (36%)
Lab: 24148 (51%)
LDem: 4264 (9%)
Oth: 1074 (2%)
MAJ: 6822 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
NICK DE BOIS (Conservative) Born 1959, Ely. Educated at Culford School. Managing director of a marketing communications company. Contested Stalybridge and Hyde 1997, Enfield North 2001, 2005. MP for Enfield North 2010 to 2015.
JOAN RYAN (Labour) Born 1955, Warrington. Educated at St Joseph Secondary School and Liverpool College of Higher Education. Former teacher. Fomer Barnet councillor. MP for Enfield North 1997-2010.
CARA JENKINSON (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Cambridge University. Former IT manager, director of a community energy company.
DEBORAH CAIRNS (UKIP) Learning support assistant.
DAVID FLINT (Green) Educated at Handsworth Technical School and Imperial College. Retired management consultant.
YEMI AWOWLA (CPA)
JOE SIMPSON (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 315 Responses on “Enfield North”
  1. Sorry but I need to correct some “fake news” a little upthread.

    The downgrading of Chase Farm Hospital was first proposed by the Blair government in the early 2000s. “Save Chase Farm” candidates ran in many Enfield wards in the 2006 council elections and (I can’t quite remember) maybe in 2002 as well. This issue might answer Plopwellian Tory’s question about how well the Tories did here in 2001 and 2005.

  2. Candidates :
    Nick De Bois (C)
    Joan Ryan (Lab)
    Nicholas Da Costa (LD)
    Bill Linton (Green)
    Deborah Cairns (UKIP)
    Interesting that UKIP are pitching up against the very eurosceptic De Bois

  3. It wasn’t that good Alex. You neglect to mention that the Tory vote also rose by 13%; in fact it rose by 0.6% more actually.

    Still, Labour would be happy not to have gone backwards here.

  4. Yes, for what it’s worth a minuscule swing to the Tories as both they and Labour increase their share appreciably

  5. In the last three council by elections both Labour and Tories are up. This is the highest increase Labour has had though

  6. Alex F’s rather selective presentation of the result made me grin. Not a huge surprise for me- I think London is going to be a struggle for the Conservatives.

  7. “I think London is going to be a struggle for the Conservatives.”

    I agree overall, but there will be a marked difference between inner and outer London.

    I think the Tories will do relatively well in outer London, where Brexit isn’t such a negative and inn areas where a large part of the BME vote is of the type which might not like Corbyn (ie. not overwhelmingly muslim).

    I expect a fairly easy Tory hold in Croydon Central and would make them favourites to gain Enfield North and Ilford North, and probably Eltham and Carshalton. Dagenham is probably out of reach now.

    Inner London will be much less forgiving. I think the Tories may well fall short in most and maybe all of the Labour marginals here – Westminster N, Brentford, Ealing Central, Tooting. A few weeks ago I expected a clean sweep by the Lib Dems in their three SW London targets but that now seems much less likely given how their campaign has generally tanked and tacked left.

  8. Plus Harrow West – I’d rank it with Eltham and Carshalton as a probable Tory win.

  9. I think the Tories will win Ilford N, Harrow W, Eltham, and Carshalton. They will probably lose to the LDs in Twickenham but I am increasingly confident about Kingston and Richmond Park.

  10. Hampsteads a likely hold. I think we’ll begin to see in the next few years the lack of tory members/activists begin to impact their election performances. In the marginal seats in particular they’re really struggling on the ground.
    Several people have said that the reason that there wasnt a proper leadership election was that the tories didn’t want to expose their lack of members.

  11. I’m in Kingston & Surbiton fairly often and it does still have a very Lib Dem feel to it, especially in the more down at heel bits like Tolworth. Surbiton has come a long way downhill since the 1970s when it was iconic stockbroker belt suburbia and home to Margot Leadbetter. The Lib Dems will be very disappointed if they don’t win it and in some ways it has a more naturally Lib Dem electorate than Twickenham these days, which is drifting towards the banker-inclined electorate which already dominates Richmond Park. On QT last night Cable looked old and tired, I can’t imagine why he wants to get back into parliament amongst a rump of 10 or less MPs.

  12. HH
    “On QT last night Cable looked old and tired, I can’t imagine why he wants to get back into parliament amongst a rump of 10 or less MPs”

    Knowing Cable he’s probably hoping that his name still holds some clout in the seat after just two years absence and after winning it back he can pass it on to a young buck at some point it the nearish future when the Tories aren’t riding as high in the polls.

  13. @Quint

    Labour also had a big ground advantage in 2015 and it didn’t help very much then.

    I pretty much agree with HH’s analysis. The polling trend over the last couple of weeks (Lab up at expense of LDs and Greens) suggests to me that Corbyn-sceptic ‘progressives’, of which there are many in inner London, will mostly stick with Labour. That makes Con gains in the inner London marginals, where there is very little UKIP vote to squeeze, very challenging. However, the outer London Lab/Con marginals (except Ealing C&A) are mostly seats where the Brexit vote was fairly balanced and the Cons stand very good chances.

  14. I know, it’s because the Tories have all the money. Apparently if you volunteer for them you get a goody bag. Am quite tempted myself.

    Would agree with HH analysis too. Is there any merit in the court case in Bermondsey? Had read Hughes was being sued?

  15. HH
    “On QT last night Cable looked old and tired, I can’t imagine why he wants to get back into parliament amongst a rump of 10 or less MPs”

    Good analysis but poor on psychology. Nobody likes to end their career a loser. Vince’s career would have ended with a whimper, losing to a relatively young, she was 50, totally inexperienced tory candidate.

    he want to write a last chapter to a political career which was fairly eminent.

    I think twickers is the only seat in london the liberal will gain. they are running a poor campaign.

    The focus of the campaign doesn’ t help them. the two party system funnily enough is reasserting itself. the lab + con vote share will be higher than it’s been in ages, and all the talk of a tory landslide helps labour as the best placed party to stop this. libs, ukip, greens etc. are being squeezed badly in this cycle.

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