2015 Result:
Conservative: 15700 (36.4%)
Labour: 18393 (42.6%)
Lib Dem: 1308 (3%)
Green: 1275 (3%)
UKIP: 6481 (15%)
MAJORITY: 2693 (6.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Greenwich council area.

Main population centres: Eltham, Kidbroke, New Eltham.

Profile: A south-east London seat in the borough of Greenwich. Parts of the seat like New Eltham are largely suburban commuterland with more in common with areas like Bexley. There is also a large amount of open green space here, such as Oxleas Wood, Shooters Hill and Avery Hill park, now a campus for the University of Greenwich. The suburban parts of the constituency though are balanced out by the large proportion of council estates such as Middle Park, Page, Horn Park and Coldharbour.

Politics: Eltham is the more Conservative part of Greenwich - in fact it was a Tory seat from 1975 when Peter Bottomley won a by-election in the then Woolwich West until 1997. Like much of London it has moved towards Labour in the intervening years, to the point that it can still be held by Labour in an election like 2010, one of their worst ever results.

Current MP
CLIVE EFFORD (Labour) Born 1958, London. Educated at Walworth Comprehensive. Former London taxi driver. Greenwich councillor 1986-1998. Contested Eltham 1992. First elected as MP for Eltham in 1997.
Past Results
Con: 15753 (38%)
Lab: 17416 (42%)
LDem: 5299 (13%)
BNP: 1745 (4%)
Oth: 1751 (4%)
MAJ: 1663 (4%)
Con: 12105 (34%)
Lab: 15381 (44%)
LDem: 5669 (16%)
UKIP: 1024 (3%)
Oth: 1126 (3%)
MAJ: 3276 (9%)
Con: 10859 (32%)
Lab: 17855 (53%)
LDem: 4121 (12%)
GRN: 706 (2%)
Oth: 251 (1%)
MAJ: 6996 (21%)
Con: 13528 (31%)
Lab: 23710 (55%)
LDem: 3701 (9%)
Oth: 1075 (2%)
MAJ: 10182 (23%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
SPENCER DRURY (Conservative) Born 1969, Woolwich. Educated at Colfes. Teacher. Greenwich councillor since 2002. Contested Eltham 2005, Greenwich and Woolwich 2010.
CLIVE EFFORD (Labour) See above.
ALEX CUNLIFFE (Liberal Democrat) Contested Erith and Thamesmead 2010.
JAMES PARKER (Green) Policy advisor.
Comments - 64 Responses on “Eltham”
  1. Judging by the exit poll, Labour may be in trouble here.

  2. Exit poll has this as a Labour hold, Tories will get a majority if they win here which they wont.

  3. Efford increased his majority to 2,693. The result was never in doubt, but expected a slightly bigger majority.

  4. ”Efford increased his majority to 2,693. The result was never in doubt, but expected a slightly bigger majority.”

    I know this seat well. Read my post on the other page. Lots of aspirational voters who are staunch Tories in this seat so Labour majority will never be huge despite Efford being an excellent MP.

  5. Here’s the breakdown of results:

    LAB 42.6
    CON 36.4
    UKIP 15.0
    LD 3.0
    GRN 3.0

    A decent little increase for Efford. A reasonably good showing by UKIP. Where in the seat would they have potential?

  6. This was not a good result for Efford. He would have expected north of 5000 but arrogance, complacency and laziness meant he has been all but invisible except the last few weeks. Tired leaflets and invites to coffee mornings are a sign he takes this for granted. As said previously there are plenty of aspirational voters here, they just need an energetic tory to show them the way. Worth also noting that without UKIP this sou;don’t be a Labour seat this time round.

  7. ”This was not a good result for Efford. He would have expected north of 5000 but arrogance, complacency and laziness meant he has been all but invisible except the last few weeks. ”

    View from London – As I’ve said in this thread, I know this seat very well. I don’t agree with your comments about Efford as he’s a very hard-working MP.

    Thanks for mentioning the points I made about aspirational voters earlier in this thread. As I keep on mentioning, this isn’t a typical rundown/urban/gritty south London seat. I have a feeling Labour could lose this in 2020 if Johnson is PM once Cameron stands down.

  8. If you think Johnson has any chance of succeeding Cameron you need your head examined.

    Being a serial adulterer who pressured his mistress into having an abortion doesn’t bother most party members in London but the fusty blue rinses in the countryside are a different matter entirely.

    Plus Johnson needs to rely on MPs to get him into the membership ballot…very difficult as he’s not that popular in the commons.

  9. Of course you said anyone predicting a Tory election win needed their head examined as well, or words to that effect.

  10. OK…fancy a bet on Boris not becoming next Tory leader?

    After my defeated general election bets I’m feeling lucky!

  11. H. Hemmelig – Tory MP’s and in particular Tory members (who in the main adore Johnson) won’t give two hoots about his personal misdemeanours. Johnson is Teflon-coated. Look at all the gaffs he made. Most politicians would have been out of office by now but Johnson surprisingly manages to benefit from his gaffs. Tory MP’s and members want to stay in office at any cost and will choose the most likely person to win in 2020. That person is Johnson.

    Are you honestly suggesting Tory MP’s and or members will choose Osborne or May and risk the chance of not winning the 2020 GE on the basis of Johnson’s personal life most of which the electorate either doesn’t know or doesn’t care about?

  12. Well Runnymede?

    Don’t tell me you actually agree with me but were just trying to be snide….whoever would have thought it

  13. Christian

    The next leader of the Tory party is almost never seen coming and this time will probably be no exception….by 2020 Osborne, May and Johnson could well all be has-beens and the successor will be someone entirely out of left field.

    Johnson’s slim chance disappeared when Cameron won a majority.

  14. LOL

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