Eltham

2010 Result:
Conservative: 15753 (37.5%)
Labour: 17416 (41.5%)
Lib Dem: 5299 (12.6%)
BNP: 1745 (4.2%)
Green: 419 (1%)
UKIP: 1011 (2.4%)
English Dem: 217 (0.5%)
Independent: 104 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 1663 (4%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Greenwich council area.

Main population centres: Eltham, Kidbroke, New Eltham.

Profile: A south-east London seat in the borough of Greenwich. Parts of the seat like New Eltham are largely suburban commuterland with more in common with areas like Bexley. There is also a large amount of open green space here, such as Oxleas Wood, Shooters Hill and Avery Hill park, now a campus for the University of Greenwich. The suburban parts of the constituency though are balanced out by the large proportion of council estates such as Middle Park, Page, Horn Park and Coldharbour.

Politics: Eltham is the more Conservative part of Greenwich - in fact it was a Tory seat from 1975 when Peter Bottomley won a by-election in the then Woolwich West until 1997. Like much of London it has moved towards Labour in the intervening years, to the point that it can still be held by Labour in an election like 2010, one of their worst ever results.


Current MP
CLIVE EFFORD (Labour) Born 1958, London. Educated at Walworth Comprehensive. Former London taxi driver. Greenwich councillor 1986-1998. Contested Eltham 1992. First elected as MP for Eltham in 1997.
Past Results
2005*
Con: 12105 (34%)
Lab: 15381 (44%)
LDem: 5669 (16%)
UKIP: 1024 (3%)
Oth: 1126 (3%)
MAJ: 3276 (9%)
2001
Con: 10859 (32%)
Lab: 17855 (53%)
LDem: 4121 (12%)
GRN: 706 (2%)
Oth: 251 (1%)
MAJ: 6996 (21%)
1997
Con: 13528 (31%)
Lab: 23710 (55%)
LDem: 3701 (9%)
Oth: 1075 (2%)
MAJ: 10182 (23%)
1992**
Con: 18813 (46%)
Lab: 17147 (42%)
LDem: 4804 (12%)
Oth: 165 (0%)
MAJ: 1666 (4%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005
**There were boundary changes after 1992

Demographics
Other 2015 Candidates
SPENCER DRURY (Conservative) Born 1969, Woolwich. Educated at Colfes. Teacher. Greenwich councillor since 2002. Contested Eltham 2005, Greenwich and Woolwich 2010.
ALEX CUNLIFFE (Liberal Democrat)
PETER WHITTLE (UKIP)
Links
Comments - 23 Responses on “Eltham”
  1. There are so many new affordable homes and apartments going up in this constituency at the moment, mainly the new Kidbrooke village replacing the rundown Ferrier Estate, and others like Eltham Springs which promote shared ownership. My guess is it will have quite an influence on the election result here next time, as most of these homes should be occupied by then.Not sure the exact figures, but turnout on the Ferrier estate used to be pretty low, and most of the Ferrier homes were empty at the last election, so I’ll expect a significantly increased vote in this Eltham West ward…

  2. I think Clive Efford will be very hard to dislodge here – I can’t help thinking if Spencer Drury was the Conservative candidate in 2010 here, he would have just won.

  3. Eltham’s demographics are changing quite fast. This will be a safe Labour seat pretty soon.

  4. One of the few Labour seats in London with more than a 60% white British population in 2011. The figure was 67.52%.

  5. It’s been confirmed that Efford will stand here again in 2015.

  6. The Conservative parliamentary candidate for 2015 has been selected and will be local councillor Spencer Drury. He fought the seat and lost to Clive Efford in 2005, then tried Greenwich and Woolwich in 2010.
    If this seat wasn’t won by the Conservatives in 2010, I’m not sure they’ll be grabbing it next time. Probably missed their chance…

  7. I take it that Clive Efford has a strong personal vote in this seat, hence was able to hold in 2010 despite the odds. Are demographic changes happening as rapidly here as it has elsewhere in London? I read that there is a larger black population now than there was before, but is that Eltham itself, or in the less affluent parts of the constituency?

  8. Probably both, although the 3 remaining Tory wards are all still predominantly white British, and they’re all in Eltham proper. Efford does seem to be a very effective representative here. Somehow, as a taxi driver, he goes down well with white working class voters, yet his positions are hardly disliked by more “trendy” voters either, and he will be quite hard to replace when he does decide to retire, which shouldn’t be for quite a few elections yet bearing in mind he is still only in his mid-50s. He could still lose this seat in the event of a Labour catastrophe as bad as 1987 but it’s unlikely in any vaguely normal election.

  9. yep Clive Efford has a strong personal vote, which helps Labour immensely, and it’s definitely becoming a more ethnic area in the northern parts of the constituency. I’d guess Labour would be looking to have a 5000+ majority next time, but will be interesting to see local election figs first….

  10. Not many wards in the borough are marginal at all apart from the split one of Blackheath Westcombe. I guess Eltham N is a faint Labour target. It’ll be more a case of studying the aggregate vote than looking at any gains & losses since there won’t be many seats changing hands.

  11. “The Conservative parliamentary candidate for 2015 has been selected and will be local councillor Spencer Drury. He fought the seat and lost to Clive Efford in 2005, then tried Greenwich and Woolwich in 2010.”

    Why did he switch?

    Or was he given no choice with a Cameroon ‘A Lister’ being imposed on what was seen as a ‘certain’ gain?

  12. An article in the Guardian 5 days after the general election explored some of the factors surrounding Efford’s victory in 2010:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk/davehillblog/2010/may/11/general-election-2010-boris-johnson-clive-efford-eltham

    It quotes a number of sources including a Telegraph article where Boris Johnson is mentioned giving his views on the Tory campaign.

    There’s also something about a vox pop on David Gold’s (the Conservative candidate) that caused a bit of a stir.

    If this guy was an A-lister that surely would’ve worked against him, while contesting a seat where the incumbent is popular locally. Perhaps Spencer Drury could have gained it if he was the 2010 candidate. I suppose that opportunity has sailed away now.

    David Gold beat off competition from Eric Ollerenshaw and Jackie Doyle Price to win the selection for Eltham. So if either of them were the candidate in 2010, they might not have been MP’s in this Parliament.

  13. *David Gold’s campaign website.

  14. “Why did he switch?

    Or was he given no choice with a Cameroon ‘A Lister’ being imposed on what was seen as a ‘certain’ gain?”

    That is basically exactly what happened.

    However, the smarter A-listers who might have been a good fit with Eltham steered clear of the seat, suspecting that it would be a very difficult seat to win despite the smallish majority. Liz Truss, for example, was a councillor here and could have easily had the candidacy if she wanted it. Instead she braved the Turnip Taliban up in Norfolk and gave her home seat a wide berth.

    Even by the normal standards of the Tory party in London, there is a significant gay mafia running the party in Greenwich borough.

  15. Here’s May 2014 local election in Eltham constituency…

    LAB 11158 (33.4%)
    CON 8139 (24.3%)
    UKIP 7078 (21.2%)
    GRN 3642 (10.9%)
    LD 1808 (5.4%)
    BNP 1583 (4.7%)

    Note BNP didn’t contest 2 wards, so probably would have been higher than Lib Dem if they had done so…

  16. Not good for the Tories to be so close to being overtaken by UKIP.

  17. That’s not a bad result for UKIP. Are the Eltham wards similar in demographic profile to the one they’ve done well with in other places?

  18. If you come into London on the A20, you go past quite a large chunk of this constituency. The Eltham wards look in most ways very much like the Bexley territory which would have preceded it on your car journey & the Tory-inclined ones are still rather similar to them in demographics to some extent, although the number of non-white residents (mostly Black Caribbbean or African) will now be noticeably higher.

  19. I think if there was any surprise Conservative in London this would be more likely to be it than Hampstead, Westminster North, Dagenham, Harrow West, Hammersmith, Tooting, Brent North or Ealing North.

  20. HH – interesting. I recall a couple of Tory Cllrs here were gay in around 2008, but perhaps it was more than that.

  21. I disagree with Dalek on this one. The Tories have to be well ahead in 3 wards to have any chance of winning here, and were unable to do so in 2010 even when they were a long way ahead in 2, and comfortably so in one (Eltham N). Instead, they lost partially to Labour in that ward. With Labour certain to be a long away ahead in the other 4, particularly so in Shooters Hill, I don’t see any chance of an upset. Hampstead is less straightforward for Labour, and so are Tooting & Westminster N. Brent N – well, while Barry Gardiner is there the Tories can forget it, and its demographics are very opposed to the Tory interest too despite the overwhelming majority of owner-occupiers.

  22. The sentence starting “Instead” should end with the words “in the local elections this year”.

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