Edmonton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9969 (24.1%)
Labour: 25388 (61.4%)
Lib Dem: 897 (2.2%)
Green: 1358 (3.3%)
UKIP: 3366 (8.1%)
TUSC: 360 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 15419 (37.3%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Edmonton, Ponders End.

Profile: An outer London seat, but inner city in character. Edmonton is a multicultural and down-at-heel area, Upper Edmonton is a multicultural area, with large afro-carribean and Cypriot communities, an area of tower blocks and social housing. Ponders End, added in the last round of boundary changes, is also monolithically Labour. Apart from the Lee Valley Leisure Complex alongside the William Girling Reservoir, the east of the seat is dominated by industrial parks, incinerators and factories - amongst others Coca-Cola have a manufacturing plant here.

Politics: The western part of the seat, Bush Hill Park, is more affluent and tends towards middle-class professionals and commuters, giving the Conservatives a base in the seat. However outside of the high watermark of Conservative support in 1983, when they took the seat and managed to hold it against the tide for another two elections, this is Labour territory.


Current MP
KATE OSAMOR (Labour) Former GP practice manager. First elected as MP for Edmonton in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12052 (30%)
Lab: 21665 (54%)
LDem: 4252 (11%)
UKIP: 1036 (3%)
Oth: 1372 (3%)
MAJ: 9613 (24%)
2005*
Con: 10381 (30%)
Lab: 18456 (53%)
LDem: 4162 (12%)
GRN: 889 (3%)
Oth: 815 (2%)
MAJ: 8075 (23%)
2001
Con: 10709 (31%)
Lab: 20481 (59%)
LDem: 2438 (7%)
UKIP: 406 (1%)
Oth: 740 (2%)
MAJ: 9772 (28%)
1997
Con: 13557 (30%)
Lab: 27029 (60%)
LDem: 2847 (6%)
Oth: 697 (2%)
MAJ: 13472 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GONUL DANIELS (Conservative) Systems engineer. Contested Enfield North 2010 as an Independent.
KATE OSAMOR (Labour) GP practice manager.
DAVID SCHMITZ (Liberal Democrat) Born USA. Educated at Syracuse University. Barrister. Contested Tottenham 2010.
NEVILLE WATSON (UKIP)
DOUGLAS COKER (Green)
LEWIS PEACOCK (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 98 Responses on “Edmonton”
  1. Andrew Charalambous, who was the Tory candidate for Edmonton at the last election, is now supporting UKIP.

  2. Yes Andy, if you remember he stood for UKIP in the Feltham & Heston by-election quite some time ago.

  3. This might sound a bit snide and pompous but maybe what happened when the IKEA store opened in 2005 is a good example of the sort of place that Edmonton is these days:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfZNvJnUaaQ&amp

  4. Yes it is snide and pompous because the vast majority of people who went to that opening travelled from all over London. I remember it well as my sister who lived in Islington at the time went. She sold me the carpark was full and people were parking on the motorway. She got 2 leather sofas worth hundreds of pounds for £50 each. The opening of the store was marketed endlessy in weeks leading to opening so what happened was bound to happen. What on earth that has to do with Edmonton I have no idea. And many people in that video are part of the middle classes looking for a good bargain.

  5. Regardless of where the people who went to Ikea came from, Edmonton is awful. It used to be OK but is now a crime ridden, violent place like its neighbour Tottenham.

  6. Was Edmonton really ever OK? Certainly the eastern areas, when you cross into the borough over the flyover on the N Circular from Waltham Forest, look as if they’ve always been unremittingly grim.

  7. Edmonton was developed at the end of the nineteenth century and the beginning of the twentieth as a result of expansion of the Great Eatern railway. It was massively pleasanter than the inner London slums that were torn down when the railway was built.

  8. LAB HOLD MAJ : 33%
    LAB 57
    CON 24
    LD 7
    UKIP 6
    GRN 3
    OTH 3

  9. So sad. Thankfully police tasered and caught him.

  10. Banged to rights I’d expect. The National front got 4.6% of the vote here in ’74, one of their best areas I’d think.

  11. They had over 8% in Wood Green and Tottenham

  12. It seems there populairty was really in the areas that soon became areas in which ethnic minorities are in the majority.

    Strange seen as UKIP’s vote, although far less right wing, is largely in places where the population is as white as possible.

    Any why now why?

  13. “Strange seen as UKIP’s vote, although far less right wing, is largely in places where the population is as white as possible.

    Anyone know why?”

    Fear of the unfamiliar I expect. In 1979 the NF vote of 100,00 in the 1977 GLC elections collapsed following Maggies two speeches on immigation, which is evidenced by the swings in some London seats with significant WWC votes at the time.

    How the NF’s largest vote in that general election came in Bodmin, which I think has become Cornwall Sout East, I never reaklly understood why, as you had to travel the 120 miles to Bristol to come across what was a vaguely significant ethnic community in St Pauls at that time.

    Plymouth Polytechnic only had about 2,500 students at that time, and what few overseas students it had were usually Iranian or other middle Eastern backgrounds, so there wasn’t a local immigrant community to be frightened of. There still isn’t in that part of the world, but it doesn’t stop first the BNP, and now UKIP, picking up significant votes.

  14. “How the NF’s largest vote in that general election came in Bodmin,”

    Where an earth did you get this strange misconception from?
    The highest NF votes in 1979 were in the usual areas – Newham, Tower Hamlets etc – areas with high immigrant populations. Not fear of the unfamiliar at all

  15. The Royal Docks and I think some of the Millwall/West India Docks were still open in 1979.

    Dock workers marched in support of Enoch Powell a decade earlier, as did the Smithfield market porters (many of whom would have lived in the East end at that time). So it doesn’t seem surprising that the NF did very well in that bit of London.

  16. Of course it isn’t surprising. The BNP still scored their best results in the country in Tower Hamlets as late as 1997 and of course won their first ever seat in the country at Millwall a few years before that

  17. I’m always on the lookout for footage (of whatever type) of the docklands area from the late 70s / early 80s since that was when it was on the point of drastically changing character. One example is The Long Good Friday, filmed in 1979 and released in 1980.

  18. The Sweeney and The Chinese Detective were both extensively filmed in the docks in their final days….both available on DVD and extensively on YouTube.

  19. “from the late 70s / early 80s since that was when it was on the point of drastically changing character”

    Though, as Pete says, a fair bit of the old dockland character persisted through to the late 90s. I visited quite a lot of the area both north and south of the river as a student in London from 95-98, and it is amazing how it has changed since then. I also recall going on the DLR when it first opened as a 12 year old in 1988. At the time Canary Wharf seemed quite isolated, still surrounded by dereliction, and that didn’t really change for 10 years due to the effect of the early 90s recession.

  20. Andy JS – incidentally I hear that a couple of MPs have complained to the BBC re their coverage, or rather lack of any. I must admit, I’m glad Sky News is available to all on Freeview and was on a plasma in the reception of the building I had a meeting in. The BBC didn’t list it as a News headline at all at 6pm and gave it 20secs after food fraud as item 8. Sky lead with it and had reporters there from 4pm. I can understand the Met not wanting to alarm the public, but the lack of information has lead the Telegraph and Sun to suggest it was carried out by a Muslim convert.

  21. perhaps they just wanted to cause more unrest in the British people over migrants as the two papers, having read them both , seem to not be huge fans of multicultural Britain.

  22. Edmonton is typical of a group of seats narrowly won by the Conservativein London that were gained from Labour in 1983 and not lost until 1992 or 1997. These had all been regarded as reasonably safe Labour seats. Others are Mitcham and Morden, Feltham and Heston, Hayes and Harlington. The now abolished Erith and Crayford and Dulwich were others.
    All seem far out of reach now, as demographics have changed. the Conservatives even lost a seat in Bush Hill Park this year, which would have been unthinkable before.

  23. Another fatal stabbing in Edmonton. What is it with Edmonton and knife crime?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30479640

  24. Social problems priced out of Hackney

  25. Horseshit. Edmonton (especially Edmonton Green) has been a shithole infested with these kind of scum long before HAckney saw any gentrification. A friend of mine was mugged at knifepoint in Edmonton in the 80s

  26. Edmonton is the North London version of Mitcham and Morden.

  27. “Horseshit. Edmonton (especially Edmonton Green) has been a shithole infested with these kind of scum long before HAckney saw any gentrification. A friend of mine was mugged at knifepoint in Edmonton in the 80s”

    To an extent yes, but Edmonton is far far worse now than it used to be, and that does partly reflect the gentrification of inner London and consequent decline of the outer suburbs.

    You can get mugged in the most unlikely of places – often when your guard is down and you’re not expecting it. I’ve lived and/or worked in London for 20 years and have only ever been mugged in Spain.

  28. “Edmonton is the North London version of Mitcham and Morden.”

    I’d say that’s probably being too kind to Edmonton

  29. Your are probably right there, though there was a period between 2006 and 2009 where there was a lot of stabbings and murders in the Mitcham and Morden area at the rate there is in Edmonton now some of which were gang related. Its calmed down a lot since then. Both towns often overspilled into nearby town centres (Sutton, Wimbledon, Croydon and Epsom) at night.

  30. *Typo Error* Was meant to say both towns have no nightlife so trouble often overspilled into nearby town centres

  31. Andy Love is retiring.

  32. Nothing in the news yet.

    When and where did he announce his retirement?

  33. It’s covered by the Enfield Independent now

  34. His replacement will surely be either black, or a woman
    (perhaps both)

  35. Is there such a thing a black female Cypriot… why not go for the trifecta!?

  36. Not necessarily – Labour failed to pick an ethnic minority candidate in Lewisham Deptford, Greenwich, Dulwich and in 2010 Lewisham East and before even that West Ham etc

  37. Woman of whatever ethnicity is more likely I would guess

  38. Yes I agree. You can also add Croydon North, though it was a by-election so perhaps a different dynamic, and also Enfield North though that is the former MP. Erith & Thamesmead and Greenwich & Woolwich too.

    I wonder why posh white women so often pip the ethnic minority candidates in these types of selections….presumably because they play the different ethnicities off each other and sail through the middle?

  39. Tricky to pinpoint exactly why and unsafe to make too many assumptions, but I think you are in the right zone, HH.

  40. Shortlisting will be done by the NEC panel as it is a late retirement.

  41. An NEC candidate (especially if it was parachuted) is luckily OK here as it’s on its way to becoming a hugely safe Labour seat to the point that even Bush Hill Park is marginal.

  42. Cannot understand why people think Labour will select from AWS. This is a seat that is only 26% White British with big African and Kurdish communities, both under-represented in Parliament. Local paper is already talking about Ibrahim Dogus and Joseph Ejifor taking on GLA rep Joanne Mccartney.

    Expect that there will be many more ethnic candidates, and would be very surprised if Labour NEC blocked their chances

  43. It’s already very safe. Incidentally Labour MPs here have never been on the Left. Love himself is by no means on the left, particularly by London standards. His predecessors Ted Graham & Austen Albu were also on the Right, particularly Albu.

  44. The 1987 result must have been a shock to almost everyone. The seat wasn’t exactly a verdant paradise even then.

  45. I think it was the second-worst Labour performance in the country, after Ealing N. Strange that both seats have, as it happens, seen a total Labour recovery since – in the case of Ealing N, a recovery and then some, with knobs on.

  46. Decision about AWS not yet taken, whilst local paper is reporting GLA Joanne McCartney, Labour Party fundraiser Ibrahim Dogus and a Cllr Joseph Ejiofor have already got their names in the hat.

    Will Labour parachute in a union bigwig, or encourage local candidates to slug it out?

    http://www.enfieldindependent.co.uk/news/11718590.Edmonton_MP_Andy_Love_to_step_down_before_election/

  47. I lived in Tottenham in the mid-1980s and although the size of the swing to the Conservatives in Edmonton in 1987 (6.3%) was rather unexpected, it should be remembered that in Tottenham there was an even larger swing of 6.8%. I remember a lot of negative reaction to Bernie Grant, particularly after the Broadwater Farm riots 18 months earlier and his ill-judged comments thereon. This must have been a strong factor in these two seats.

  48. Open shortlist confirmed by NEC

  49. May this be a seat for Mandy Richards as she is still still looking for a seat to stand in for May I beleive. .

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