Edmonton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9969 (24.1%)
Labour: 25388 (61.4%)
Lib Dem: 897 (2.2%)
Green: 1358 (3.3%)
UKIP: 3366 (8.1%)
TUSC: 360 (0.9%)
MAJORITY: 15419 (37.3%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Enfield council area.

Main population centres: Edmonton, Ponders End.

Profile: An outer London seat, but inner city in character. Edmonton is a multicultural and down-at-heel area, Upper Edmonton is a multicultural area, with large afro-carribean and Cypriot communities, an area of tower blocks and social housing. Ponders End, added in the last round of boundary changes, is also monolithically Labour. Apart from the Lee Valley Leisure Complex alongside the William Girling Reservoir, the east of the seat is dominated by industrial parks, incinerators and factories - amongst others Coca-Cola have a manufacturing plant here.

Politics: The western part of the seat, Bush Hill Park, is more affluent and tends towards middle-class professionals and commuters, giving the Conservatives a base in the seat. However outside of the high watermark of Conservative support in 1983, when they took the seat and managed to hold it against the tide for another two elections, this is Labour territory.


Current MP
KATE OSAMOR (Labour) Former GP practice manager. First elected as MP for Edmonton in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12052 (30%)
Lab: 21665 (54%)
LDem: 4252 (11%)
UKIP: 1036 (3%)
Oth: 1372 (3%)
MAJ: 9613 (24%)
2005*
Con: 10381 (30%)
Lab: 18456 (53%)
LDem: 4162 (12%)
GRN: 889 (3%)
Oth: 815 (2%)
MAJ: 8075 (23%)
2001
Con: 10709 (31%)
Lab: 20481 (59%)
LDem: 2438 (7%)
UKIP: 406 (1%)
Oth: 740 (2%)
MAJ: 9772 (28%)
1997
Con: 13557 (30%)
Lab: 27029 (60%)
LDem: 2847 (6%)
Oth: 697 (2%)
MAJ: 13472 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GONUL DANIELS (Conservative) Systems engineer. Contested Enfield North 2010 as an Independent.
KATE OSAMOR (Labour) GP practice manager.
DAVID SCHMITZ (Liberal Democrat) Born USA. Educated at Syracuse University. Barrister. Contested Tottenham 2010.
NEVILLE WATSON (UKIP)
DOUGLAS COKER (Green)
LEWIS PEACOCK (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 97 Responses on “Edmonton”
  1. Believe I mean.

  2. http://labourlist.org/2015/01/selections-announced-for-edmonton-and-st-helens-north/

    “Potential names of candidates already floated include London Assembly member Joanne McCartney, Labour party fundraiser Ibrahim Dogus, ex-Hackney Councillor and NEC member (and LabourList columnist) Luke Akehurst, recent MEP candidate Ivana Bartoletti and Haringey councillor Joseph Ejiofor.”

  3. Just to correct a point in the background information. Enfield’s Cypriot Community lives predominantly in Enfield Southgate. Edmonton is the constituency with the largest Turkish Speaking community in the country.

    Would expect a number of our local Turkish speaking Councillors to put their names forward.

    http://www.londragazete.com/2015/01/15/race-begins-win-edmonton/

  4. Not gonna happen. No precedent, and the NEC isn’t going incite the inevitable shitstorm it would cause three months before a general election.

  5. Labour selection timetable set. Final hustings scheduled for Feb 21th.

  6. Luke Akehurst, former NEC member and major figure of the moderate wing of the party, has applied for the selection here.

  7. Labour shortlist:

    Kate Analoue (former Upper Edmonton Cllr)
    Kate Osamor (NEC member)
    Ayfer Orhan (Cllr for Ponders End ward, stood in Cambridgeshire NW in 2005 and Hemel Hempstead in 2010)

    All women, all BAME

  8. Ayfer Orhan is of Turkish origin so not quite sure she would qualify as BAME. I suspect she is the favourite though personally I hope Kate Osamor gets it.

  9. Turkish people are not technically BAME as on census returns they would be classed as white other through as they mostly Muslim they considered BAME by most people compared to Greek’s and Greek Cypriots which are not considers a minority.
    Is Ayfer Orhan of mainland Turkish descent or Turkish Cypriot descent.
    Surprised Mandy Richards did not get shortlisted through I suspect she s holding out for a 2016 by election if Abbott/ Lammy/Hodge/Khan becomes Mayor and their seat becomes vacant.

  10. LabourList reported that there was 108 applicants, so the final shortlist perhaps placated some of the concerns about the number of BAME Labour candidates being shortlisted in winnable London seats.

    I believe Kate Osamor is on the left of the party.

  11. yes, she’s on the NEC for the (centre-)left slate

  12. Ayfer is a strong candidate with excellent local credentials, and I hope that she wins.

    I was surprised, however, that Labour did not manage to find an African Caribbean man good enough to get on this shortlist.

    Cannot think that there will be any new black men defending Labour held seats across the country since unlikely to be any more late retirements.

  13. I voted for Kate Osamor in the NEC elections last year. I was probably one of the few people to vote for both her and Luke Akehurst.

  14. ellawest, if David Lammy is selected as the party candidate for London Mayor (and that’s a big if as Tessa Jowell is favourite) such an opportunity will open up in Tottenham.

  15. If Epping Forest is Tracey from Birds of a Feather, this is Sharon. Her grotty tower block home was seen when the series was re-launched, together with some digs at the new “welfare reforms”.

  16. The LD candidate is David Schmitz, who stood in Tottenham in 2010. One suspects he was the only person to apply here.

  17. This has to be one of that party’s most perenially weak seats, though Enfield N is pretty much on a par with it.

  18. I though Hays and Halingtom was the weakest Lib Dem seat in London? The only London seat where they got under 10% of the vote in 2010.

  19. They’ll struggle to clear 2% in Hayes and Harlington.

  20. Kate Osamor wins Labour selection

  21. Just noticed the UKIP candidate he. He was in the Tottenham Labour Party then stood as an independent (council and Parliamentary). He applied to be a Conservative candidate for last May’s elections – we never got back to him. Now in UKIP 🙂

  22. http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2015/03/who-black-woman-kate-osamor-her-path-parliament

    Interview with Kate Osamor.

    Her mother was in the running for Labour candidacy for Vauxhall in the 1989 by-election, but was beaten by Kate Hoey for that.

  23. Labour by 17000 over CON. Lab until the end of time.

  24. This seat, like Tottenham, was Labour in 1935, but Conservative in 19i83 (and 1987). It is one of very few seats to show this voting pattern. Both seats have now gone back to being safe Labour, largely because they have become increasingly multicultural.

  25. Frederic, Tottenham did not elect a Conservative MP in either 1983 or 1987-there were swings in Tottenham from Labour to the Conservatives in those election years, but Labour still held Tottenham.

  26. I thought there might have been a small swing to Labour in 1983 but I can’t remember for certain so could be wrong.

  27. @Andy JS

    The notionals for 1979 on 1983 boundaries weren’t great, and I don’t have them to hand. There was a large swing to the Conservatives in 1987 when the Bernie Grant fuss blew up.

    That Stuart Holland reference is 6 years old, but I understand he is still alive – he would be 75 now.

  28. Turkish Nationals in the UK voted over 80% No in the Referendum today.

    Unlike Turks in Germany etc where they voted Yes by a huge margin.

  29. Any reason for the stark difference?

  30. It’s become a very safe Labour seat. I haven’t checked the boundary changes in 2010, however, the Labour vote estimate of only 2,000 less than 1997 is a pretty solid piece of evidence of long term shift.

    I can’t say whether Plop’s prediction about 2018 will be correct or not – No No go areas.

    The result in Enfield North was a bit less bad than I expected in 2015 – I had it down as a certain Tory loss despite being reasonably confident of a Tory majority.

  31. Polltroll – generally the more religious voted Yes and the more secular voted No.

    The 3 largest cities in Turkey also voted No (just), whilst some rural areas voted over 75% Yes.

  32. PT – presumably Turkey has the most Turks outside Cyprus lol

  33. ‘ Any reason for the stark difference? ‘

    Ethnic Turks in this country are more integrated than those in Germany.

  34. The vote in turkey seems remarkably similar to the Brexit vote in this country. Not just the 52/48 result but the type of people who voted the way they did

  35. Well apart from UKIP wanting freedom from State control and Erdogan wanting more autocratic rule – but I take your point if you think Turkish Islamic conservatives are similar to Essex man.

    Cities were secular so there is that similarity I suppose. Although most Muslims who voted in the UK voted Remain.

    Maybe you mistake the word conservative re the Ayatollah in Iran and conclude that it must mean the same as Conservative here?

    In fact it tends to be the Leave and Trump side who are most vocal against Iran etc and the far Left including Stop the War who always have ‘Don’t Bomb Iran’ banners.

    With a few exceptions such as Tatchell.

  36. Those most against Erdogan’s “reforms” seemed to be the educated and liberal middle classes mostly living in cities – exactly the same people who were most opposed to Brexit in this country

  37. Will be a surprise if Kate Osamor is in the shadow cabinet next Friday with what the Times are reporting tonight.

  38. What are they reporting? I’ve used up my two free articles this week already.

  39. She lied about what she knew and when regarding her son’s conviction for drug dealing. She also threatened a reporter with violence and threw water over him.

  40. It’s on the front page so available on twitter.

  41. Kate Osamor has resigned from the Shadow Cabinet.

  42. Kate Osamor’s mother has just become a member of the House of Lords.

    Nice timing.

  43. Deserves recognition for the tireless hard work in North London for the poor and minority communities in the 70s and 80s.

    She was bounced out as PPC for VAUXHALL in the late 80s, because she deemed too radical and troublesome and was supplanted by Kate Hoey.

  44. Not saying she doesn’t deserve it, but the optics are terrible.

  45. There’s a weird irony in Kate Hoey being considered the ‘less troublesome’ option, in hindsight.

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