Edinburgh West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 6732 (12.3%)
Labour: 6425 (11.7%)
Lib Dem: 18168 (33.1%)
SNP: 21378 (39%)
Green: 1140 (2.1%)
UKIP: 1015 (1.9%)
MAJORITY: 3210 (5.9%)

Category: Marginal SNP seat

Geography: Scotland, Lothian. Part of the Edinburgh council area.

Main population centres: Edinburgh, Queensferry.

Profile: Edinburgh West is largely suburban, consisting mainly of villages like Corstorphine and Davidsons Mains that have grown into suburbs of Scotlands capital. It also includes the town of Queensferry to the West, the site of the Forth road and rail bridge. The constituency includes Edinburgh airport, Murrayfield stadium and Edinburgh Zoo.

Politics: This used to be a safe Conservative seat. It returned Conservative MPs from 1931 until 1997, finishing with James Douglas-Hamilton, the heir to the Earl of Selkirk who disclaimed his peerage to protect the ailing Conservative government`s wafer thin majority. The Liberal Democrats won the seat in 1997 and held it until 2015, with Labour and the Conservatives battling for second place. The equivalent Scottish Parliament seat, Edinburgh Western, was won by the SNP in 2011, and this seat followed in the 2015 landslide.


Current MP
MICHELLE THOMSON (SNP) Former businessman. First elected as MP for Edinburgh West in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10767 (23%)
Lab: 12881 (28%)
LDem: 16684 (36%)
SNP: 6115 (13%)
MAJ: 3803 (8%)
2005
Con: 8817 (19%)
Lab: 8433 (19%)
LDem: 22417 (50%)
SNP: 4124 (9%)
Oth: 1474 (3%)
MAJ: 13600 (30%)
2001*
Con: 8894 (23%)
Lab: 9130 (23%)
LDem: 16719 (42%)
SNP: 4047 (10%)
Oth: 688 (2%)
MAJ: 7589 (19%)
1997
Con: 13325 (28%)
Lab: 8948 (19%)
LDem: 20578 (43%)
SNP: 4210 (9%)
Oth: 570 (1%)
MAJ: 7253 (15%)

2015 Candidates
LINDSAY PATERSON (Conservative) Educated at St Andrews University. Policy manager. Edinburgh councillor. Contested Livingston 2003, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill 2005, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath 2010.
CAMMY DAY (Labour) Born Edinburgh. Edinburgh councillor since 2008. Contested Edinburgh West 2010.
MICHAEL CROCKART (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Perth. Educated at Perth High School and Edinburgh University. Policeman and systems developer. Contested Edinburgh North and Leith 2005. MP for Edinburgh West 2010 to 2015. PPS to Michael Moore 2010. Resigned as PPS over opposition to the rise in tuition fees.
OTTO INGLIS (UKIP) Contested Aberdeen Donside 2013 Holyrood by-election, Scotland region 2009 European election.
PATRICIA BLACK (Green)
MICHELLE THOMSON (SNP) Runs a property management company.
Links
Comments - 599 Responses on “Edinburgh West”
1 9 10 11
  1. @ Plopwell – actually the SNP won here at the 2016 Scottish Parliament election.

    My notional figures:
    SNP 35
    LD 35
    CON 17
    LAB 12
    OTH 1

    The obvious caveat is a lack of tactical voting in Murrayfield (covered by Edinburgh Central in the Scottish Parliament and Edinburgh West in the UK Parliament), which went quite strongly Tory in 2016 and should go Lib Dem this year.

    I would say the Lib Dems have a very strong chance of gaining this constituency at this year’s general election, I’m probably 90% sure of it, but victory is far from guaranteed.

  2. Yeah, because that was the only problem with your prediction.

    Interesting to remember 2005: a 30% LD majority.

    I tend to think this seat will go LD by a fair shout with quite a bit of tactical voting. Still, will be one to watch.

    I’d also remind Plopwellian Tory that the SNP MP not standing is far more likely to help the SNP than to hurt them, given her scandal.

    I’d guess LDs will be 40% +/- a few points, with the SNP in the mid-30s and everyone else below 20%.

  3. Still best chance in Scotland for a LibDem gain I feel but it will be close. The disgraced MP was a main factor in the LibDems taking the equivalent seat at Holyrood in 2016. She has been replaced so that factor is diminished but nonetheless leaves a smell. I fail to see why the LibDems would poll 45% (they polled 33% in the 2015 general election). They polled 42% in the Holyrood election. With less favourable boundaries and a resurgent Scottish Conservative party surely they are likely to poll less than that? Labour may be down to their core vote here but the suggestion of 3% is very doubtful.

  4. @Scottyboy – only the boundaries are more favourable for the Liberal Democrats in Edinburgh West…

  5. You mean favourable in that Tory voting districts that are in play may vote LibDem? Or possibly they might just vote Tory?

  6. The problem that faces all Scottish Conservatives is do they support their party or support another one if there is a chance the SNP candidate can be defeated? If the Scottish opinion polls are correct (no reason to doubt) there must be a strong chance that Tory voters will do exactly what they say they will do…vote Tory.

  7. The Liberal Democrats should be quite comfortably ahead in Murrayfield yes.

  8. I could easily see an outcome here where the SNP lose 15% of their vote, Labour lose half their vote, the Conservative vote doubles, UKIP and Green effectively cancel each other out either by not standing or by transfer of votes which leads to….

    SNP 33
    LibDem 31
    CON 25
    Lab 6
    Others 5

  9. There is a limit to anti-SNP tactical voting. No voting Brexiteers aren’t going to back the LD just to ditch the SNP unless the LDs can treat this as a by-election. Tories used to hold this seat and might be happy with a 2nd place rather than boosting the LDs.

  10. This seat was 72% Remain, and the kinds of places where tactical voting will be most pronounced are also the strongest Remain areas here.

  11. Lib Dems gained over 50% first preferences in the Almond ward and saw 2 councillors elected. Figures looking very good for them in this constituency

  12. Looks like the LD’s are going to be in with a good chance at taking this seat back.

  13. I see a high chance for the Lib Dems here and in NE Fife. East Dunbartonshire was more mixed, and they suffered elsewhere in Scotland (though not in Argyll and Bute, interestingly, where they also held up reasonably well at Holyrood).

  14. Difficult to be definitive about what happened last week across the seat as some ward boundaries overlap constituencies – but taking the total of Corstorphine/Murrayfield, Drum Brae/Gyle, Almond and an estimated third of Inverleith would give first preference breakdown of LD 37%, Con 25%, SNP 24%, Lab 9%, Grn 5%

  15. Stonking LD gain here, I think for once Gloy Plopwell’s stupendous momentum will take place. 8-10 majority.

  16. Both of those seem plausible, PT.

  17. Cole-Hamilton was making all kinds of bold predictions of LD gains in Scotland that included Argyll & Bute, Skye & Lochaber and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross.

    Personally, I think that they will succeed in Edinburgh West and Fife NE but fail in East Dunbartonshire due to the unwinding tactical Tory vote due to a Tory surge in Greater Glasgow.

  18. Don’t be stupid Dalek. The election is as good as over here as in Dunbartonshire east and the wonderful Liberal Democrat candidates will win and carry the day.

  19. Do you agree with Cole-Hamilton’s bold predictions of LD gains in Scotland that include Argyll & Bute, Skye & Lochaber and Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross?

  20. I think Dalek has a good point on East Dunbartonshire, but I wouldn’t rule out a gain. Depends on tactical votes, to be sure.

    Their locals in Argyll were solid, but that doesn’t equal a gain to me. They also (if memory services, and it may not) held up better there at the Holyrood election than in the Highland seats.

    We’ll see — I could see the seats in Highland (maybe not Inverness) being competitive again in future, but I think it’ll be awhile. Not this cycle or probably even the next, barring an SNP collapse.

  21. I think this will easily go Lib Dem – 13-15,000 majority.
    I’m optimistic about Dunbartonshire East and Fife NE.
    Redcar is a cert.

  22. 13-15k majority? Surely the Lib Dems are more plopular than that!

  23. So he’s cautiously ploptimistic then

  24. I think the Plopwell joke has run its course.

    In any case.

  25. A candidate for:

    Scotland’s Independence Referendum Party

    is running here. Only recently registered with the Electoral Commission.

  26. Lib Dem gain – and if the polls continue in the direction they are at the moment (assuming they’re right, of course) this may well be the only one

  27. You mean the only one in Scotland, right? Surely not the only one in the entire country?

  28. Christine Jardine’s husband very sadly passed away last week. A terrible thing to happen at any time, but in the middle of a snap election campaign is particularly cruel

  29. There would be a certain irony to the SNP coming second by fewer votes than the Indyref Party candidate polls

  30. The Lib Dems are going to gain 2-3 in Scotland [Swinson], take Twickenham and a surprise in South London somewhere, win one or two off the Tories in the South of England and lose three MPs. Which leaves them at about 12.

  31. If I had to guess, in order of majority:

    Westmoreland & Lonsdale
    Sheffield, Hallam
    Orkney & Shetland
    Ceredigion
    Leeds, North West
    Cambridge
    Edinburgh, West
    Twickenham
    North East Fife
    Cheltenham
    Lewes
    North Norfolk

    With a few of those being questionable and a few other being plausible gains.

  32. What about Lembit Opiks old seat of Montgomeryshire? Why isnt that being talked about?

  33. What about Lembit Opiks old seat of Montgomeryshire? Why isnt that being talked about?

  34. With the general Tory increase in Wales, there’s no way in hell the LD’s have a chance in Montgomeryshire. With a healthy 11% UKIP vote to harvest, especially considering the fact that they aren’t standing a candidate, the seat should be an easy hold.

  35. I’d say there’s a 20-25% chance this seat will be the LDs only gain.

    Not a likelihood, in other words.

  36. Montgomeryshire will absolutely not fall to the LDs, Quint. The Tory majority is very high. The LDs should be hoping for a vote increase and to regain once Davies stands down (can’t be too long; he’s quite old).

  37. Montgomery safe, but the general Tory increase in Wales has just done a screeching reverse

  38. Perhaps (I too am guilty of this) we should move that to the Montgomeryshire thread.

  39. Lib Dem gain. Wonderful to see Christine Jardine elected after such a difficult campaign period for her.

    Lib Dems – 18,108 – 34.3% (up 1.2)
    SNP -15,120 – 28.6% (Down 10.3)
    Con – 11,559 – 21.9% (up 9.6)
    Lab – 7,876 – 14.9% (up 3.2)

1 9 10 11
Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)